land transfer analysis final report

8/10/2019 Land Transfer Analysis Final Report

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AnAnalysisofa

TransferofFederalLands

to

the

StateofUtah

November2014


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AN AN A L Y S I S O F A

T R A N S F E R O F F E D E R A L LA N D S

T O T H E

S T A T E O F U T A H

Prepared for:

Public Lands Policy Coordination OfficeOffice of the Governor

5110 State Office BuildingSalt Lake City, Utah 84114-1107

Prepared by:

University of Utah,Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Jan Elise Stambro, John C. Downen, Michael T. Hogue, Levi Pace

Utah State University,Department of Applied Economics

Paul M. Jakus

Weber State University,Department of Economics

Therese C. Grijalva

Edited and Produced by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research

November 2014

Acknowledgements


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A N A N A L Y S I S O F A T R A N S F E R O F F E D E R A L LA N D S T O T H E ST A T E O F UT A H

FO REWO RD AND AC KNO WLEDG EMENTS

This study represents an 18-month collaboration among three universitiesUniversity of Utah,

Utah State University, and Weber State University. The project would not have been possiblewithout the efforts and support of many people.

For their substantial contributions, the authors recognize Richard S. Krannich and Lassina Cou-libaly at Utah State University and James A. Wood, Diane S. Gillam, DJ Benway and NicholasThiriot at the University of Utah. Particular thanks is extended to Kathleen Clarke, John Harja,Tony Rampton and Kathy Davis from the Public Lands Policy Coordinating Office.

The authors also wish to thank the following individuals who provided the research team withinvaluable input: Tiffany Martinez, Joe Majewski, Casey Matthews, Joe Mendez, Shelley Smith,Bill Stevens and Leslie Wilcken at the Bureau of Land Management; Ray Rasker at HeadwatersEconomics, Inc.; David Miller, Iron County Commissioner; Rodney Larsen at the National Park

Service; Joe Kerkvliet at Oregon State University; Tom Power at the University of Montana;John Ruple at the University of Utah; Martina Barnes, Diane Cote, Paul Cowley and Ralph Reesat the U.S. Forest Service; Troy Forrest and Bill Hopkin at the Utah Department of Agricultureand Food; Joel Karmazyn at the Utah Department of Environmental Quality; Linda Hull at theUtah Department of Transportation; Laura Ault, Brian Cottam, Tracy Dunford and GeoffreyMcNaughton at the Utah Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands; Steve Fluke, Steve Schnei-der and Don Staley at the Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining; Chris Haller, Scott Strong andSusan Zarekarizi at the Utah Division of Parks and Recreation; Bill Bates, Linda Braithwaite,Mike Canning and Kenny Johnson at the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources; David Tabet andMichael Vanden Berg at the Utah Geological Survey; Kevin Carter and Richard Wilcox at theUtah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration; Kim Chapman, Troy Cooper, Dillon

Feuz and Bruce Godfrey at Utah State University; participants at the 2014 USDA W-3133 Re-gional Project conference and seminars at Arizona State University and Utah State University;and County Government representatives in Beaver, Box Elder, Carbon, Daggett, Davis, Duch-esne, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevier, Summit, Uintah, Washington andWayne counties.


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C O NTENTS

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. viiList of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... xixSummary ................................................................................................................................................... xxv

Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................... xxvEconomic Impacts of Federal Agency Operations ................................................................ xxvi

Potential Land Management Costs ........................................................................................... xxviPotential Revenues..................................................................................................................... xxviiEconomic Impacts of Activities on Federal Lands ................................................................ xxixPublic Lands, Recreation and Quality of Life .......................................................................... xxixPublic Lands and Economic Growth ....................................................................................... xxxiPublic Education .......................................................................................................................... xxxiCounty Feedback ........................................................................................................................xxxii

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................xxxii1Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Federal Land Acquisition and Disposal ....................................................................................... 3

1.2 Federal Land Withdrawals and Retention .................................................................................... 5

1.2.1 Era of Expanding Regulation ................................................................................................ 61.3 Land Ownership in Utah ................................................................................................................ 7References ............................................................................................................................................. 10

2Management of Utahs Lands .............................................................................................................. 112.1 Federal Land Management ........................................................................................................... 12

2.1.1 Bureau of Land Management .............................................................................................. 122.1.2 U.S. Forest Service ................................................................................................................ 422.1.3 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ............................................................................................. 63

2.2 State Land Management ............................................................................................................... 702.2.1 Utahs Trust Lands: Early Years ......................................................................................... 71

2.2.2 Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration ........................................... 722.2.3 Utah Division of Forestry, Fire, and State Lands ............................................................. 87

2.2.4 Utah State Parks .................................................................................................................... 952.2.5 Utah Division of Wildlife Resources ............................................................................... 108

References .......................................................................................................................................... 1173Potential Revenues and Costs of Managing Transferred Lands .................................................. 123

3.1 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................... 1233.2 Potential Revenue ....................................................................................................................... 125

3.2.1 Oil and Gas Revenue Projections .................................................................................... 1263.2.2 Coal Projections .................................................................................................................. 1403.2.3 Other Revenue Sources ..................................................................................................... 142

3.3 Estimating Land Management Costs ....................................................................................... 1433.3.1 Federal Agencies ................................................................................................................. 144

3.3.2 State Agencies ..................................................................................................................... 1453.3.3 Cost Estimate of Managing Transferred lands .............................................................. 146 3.3.4 Other Cost Considerations ............................................................................................... 151

4Public Lands and Economic Growth .............................................................................................. 1534.1 Background on Public Land in the Mountain West .............................................................. 155

4.1. Cultural and Formal Institutions ........................................................................................ 1564.2 Literature ...................................................................................................................................... 159

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7.3.1 Crude Oil Production ........................................................................................................ 2907.3.2 Natural Gas Production .................................................................................................... 2937.3.3 Value of Oil and Gas Production .................................................................................... 2967.3.4 Economic Contributions ................................................................................................... 300

7.4 Coal Production .......................................................................................................................... 3097.4.1 Historical and Current Production .................................................................................. 3097.4.2 Value of Coal Production.................................................................................................. 311

7.4.3 Economic Contributions ................................................................................................... 312

7.5 Other Mineral Production ......................................................................................................... 3187.5.1 Historical and Current Production .................................................................................. 3187.5.2 Value of Mineral Production ............................................................................................ 3217.5.3 Economic Contributions ................................................................................................... 323

7.6 Grazing ......................................................................................................................................... 3287.6.1 Grazing on Federal Lands ................................................................................................. 3287.6.2 Economic Contributions of Federal Grazing ................................................................ 333

7.7 Geothermal Steam Production ................................................................................................. 3447.7.1 Economic Contributions ................................................................................................... 344

7.8 Timber Harvests ......................................................................................................................... 346

7.8.1 Utah Timber Harvest ......................................................................................................... 3467.8.2 Utahs Timber Industry ..................................................................................................... 355

7.8.3 Timber and Land Transfer ................................................................................................ 3667.8.4 Timber Industry Economic Impacts ............................................................................... 366

References .......................................................................................................................................... 3698 Utahs Natural Resources .................................................................................................................. 373

8.1 Nonrenewable Resources .......................................................................................................... 3748.1.1 Crude Oil and Natural Gas ............................................................................................... 3748.1.2 Coal ....................................................................................................................................... 3788.1.3 Uranium ............................................................................................................................... 3858.1.4 Base and Precious Metals .................................................................................................. 387

8.1.5 Industrial Minerals .............................................................................................................. 3978.1.6 Mineral Resources of Wilderness Study Areas ............................................................... 4028.1.7 Unconventional Fuels ........................................................................................................ 465

8.2 Renewable Resources ................................................................................................................. 4698.2.1 Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................. 4698.2.2 Timber .................................................................................................................................. 473

References .......................................................................................................................................... 4849 Wildfire in Utah................................................................................................................................... 491

9.1 Wildfire and Land Transfer ....................................................................................................... 4919.2 Wildfire Trends in Western States ........................................................................................... 4939.3 Wildfire Trends in Utah ............................................................................................................. 494

9.3.1 Wildfire by Landowner and Severity ............................................................................... 496

9.3.2 Wildfire by Vegetation Type ............................................................................................. 4999.3.3 Large Fires ........................................................................................................................... 499

9.4 Wildfire Causes ........................................................................................................................... 5019.4.1 Climate ................................................................................................................................. 5019.4.2 Bark Beetles ......................................................................................................................... 5049.4.3 Invasive Species .................................................................................................................. 5059.4.4 Fire Ignition......................................................................................................................... 5059.4.5 Land Management Practices ............................................................................................. 506

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9.5 Wildfire Expenditures in Utah .................................................................................................. 5069.5.1 Fire Suppression Expenditures ......................................................................................... 5099.5.2 Wildfire Costs Besides Suppression ................................................................................. 5139.5.3 Wildfire Cost Details by Agency ....................................................................................... 516

9.6 The Cost of Large Fires .............................................................................................................. 5199.7 Aviation Support for Utah Wildfires ........................................................................................ 5209.8 Wildland-Urban Interface .......................................................................................................... 522

9.9 Wildfire and Air Quality ............................................................................................................. 5239.9.1 Wildfire, Air Quality and Health Outcomes ................................................................... 5239.9.2 Utah Air Quality Challenges from Wildfire ..................................................................... 5249.9.3 Utah Policy Response ......................................................................................................... 525

9.10 Addressing Excess Fuels in Utahs Fireshed ......................................................................... 5269.10.1 Prescribed Burns and Wildfire Management ................................................................ 5279.10.2 Cost of Fuel Reduction Treatments ............................................................................... 5289.10.3 Estimating Savings from Treatments ............................................................................. 530

References ........................................................................................................................................... 53310 State Funding of Public Education in Utah................................................................................... 537

10.1 Sources of Funding ................................................................................................................... 537

10.1.1 Minimum School Program .............................................................................................. 53810.1.2 School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration ................................................. 54010.1.3 Payments in Lieu of Taxes and Secure Rural Schools ................................................. 541

10.2 The Challenge of Growth ........................................................................................................ 54311 Linking Public Lands to Social Conditions and Quality of Life ................................................. 547

11.1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 54711.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 54811.3 Literature Review ...................................................................................................................... 549

11.3.1 Population Dynamics: Linking Resource Conditions to Demographic Change ..... 54911.3.2 Economic Outcomes: Linking Resource Conditions to Economic Well-Being ..... 55211.3.3 Human Capital: Linking Resource Conditions to the Skills and Capacities of

Local Populations ............................................................................................................. 55511.3.4 Social Capital: Linking Resource Conditions to Local Social Engagement andAttachment ........................................................................................................................ 556

11.3.5 Public Attitudes and Values Regarding Public and Protected Lands andResources ........................................................................................................................... 558

11.4 An Exploration of Data from the 2007 Survey of Utah Residents ................................... 55911.4.1 Participation in Public Land Recreation Activities....................................................... 56011.4.2 Personal Use of Materials Gathered on Public Lands ................................................. 56411.4.3 Utahns Views About Public Lands and Local Quality of Life .................................. 56711.4.4 The Importance of Public Lands to Personal and Community Identities ............... 575

11.5 Summary and Concluding Observations ............................................................................... 584References ........................................................................................................................................... 586

12 Summary of County Feedback ........................................................................................................ 59112.1 Primary Priorities and Concerns of Utah Counties .............................................................. 59212.2 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 594

13 Transfer Scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 59513.1 Oil and Natural Gas Production Scenarios ........................................................................... 596

13.1.1 Forecasting Production from Currently Active Wells ................................................. 59613.1.2 Predicting the Number of Wells Drilled........................................................................ 59713.1.3 Forecasting Production from New Wells ...................................................................... 598

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13.1.4 Derivative Forecasts ........................................................................................................ 59813.1.5 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................ 59913.1.6 Discussion of Results....................................................................................................... 601

13.2 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Oil and Gas Scenarios ................................................... 61113.2.1 Comparison of Baseline Forecasts ................................................................................ 61113.2.2 Reference Price Scenarios ............................................................................................... 61713.2.3 Low Price Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 622

13.2.4 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 62813.3 Flaring and Venting of Natural Gas ...................................................................................... 62813.4 Coal Production Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 63013.5 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Coal Scenarios................................................................. 63113.6 Grazing Scenarios ..................................................................................................................... 642

13.6.1 Estimated Change in Production Costs ........................................................................ 64313.6.2 Scenario I: Extra Month Grazing on Range @ $1.35/AUM .................................... 64513.6.3 Scenario II: Extra Month Grazing on Range @ $4.22/AUM ................................... 64713.6.4 Scenario III: Extra Month Grazing on Range @ $7.34/AUM ................................. 64813.6.5 Summary of Scenario Outputs ....................................................................................... 650

References .......................................................................................................................................... 652

Appendix A: Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Operations ................................................ 653A.1 Recreation Use ........................................................................................................................... 654A.2 NRA Facilities ............................................................................................................................ 657A.3 Current Operations ................................................................................................................... 658

A.3.1 Base Operating Budget and Employment ..................................................................... 658A.4 County Perspectives .................................................................................................................. 664A.4.1 Visitor Spending ..................................................................................................................... 665A.5 Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 668References .......................................................................................................................................... 668

Appendix B: A Comparison of North Dakotas Shale Oil and Utahs Oil Shale ......................... 671B.1 Resource Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 671

B.1.1 Shale Oil North Dakota ................................................................................................ 671B.1.2 Oil Shale Utah ................................................................................................................. 672B.2 Commercial Viability ................................................................................................................. 672

B.2.1 Bakken Shale ...................................................................................................................... 672B.2.2 Green River Formation .................................................................................................... 672

B.3 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 673Appendix C: State Forest Management and Timber Programs ...................................................... 675

C.1 Arizona ........................................................................................................................................ 676C.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 676C.1.2 State Trust Lands ............................................................................................................... 677C.1.3 Budget/Cost ....................................................................................................................... 678C.1.4 Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 678

C.2 Colorado ...................................................................................................................................... 678C.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 678C.2.2 State Trust Lands ............................................................................................................... 679C.2.3 Budget/Costs ..................................................................................................................... 679C.2.4 Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 680

C.3 Idaho ............................................................................................................................................ 680C.3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 680C.3.2 State Trust Lands ............................................................................................................... 681

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C.3.3 Budget/Costs ...................................................................................................................... 681C.4 Montana ....................................................................................................................................... 681

C.4.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 681C.4.2 State Trust Lands ................................................................................................................ 683C.4.3 Budget/Costs ...................................................................................................................... 683

C.5 Eastern Washington ................................................................................................................... 683C.5.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 683

C.5.2 State Trust Lands ................................................................................................................ 684C.5.3 Budget/Costs ...................................................................................................................... 684C.5.4 Challenges ............................................................................................................................ 684

References ........................................................................................................................................... 685Arizona ........................................................................................................................................... 685Colorado ........................................................................................................................................ 685Idaho ............................................................................................................................................... 685Montana ......................................................................................................................................... 686Utah ................................................................................................................................................ 686Eastern Washington ..................................................................................................................... 686

Appendix D: BLM Oil & Gas Leasing: Wilderness, Master Lease Planning and Sage-Grouse.. 689

D.1 Overview of Protected BLM Lands in Utah .......................................................................... 690D.2 Oil & Gas Lease Offerings and Parcel Deferrals .................................................................. 692

D.2.1 Summary of Results ........................................................................................................... 692D.2.2 Data Limitations ................................................................................................................ 695

D.3 Master Lease Planning ............................................................................................................... 696D.3.1 BLM MLP Policy ............................................................................................................... 696D.3.2 Master Lease Planning in Utah ........................................................................................ 697D.3.3 Oil & Gas Lease Offerings and Parcel Deferrals for MLP Areas .............................. 698

D.4 Wilderness Inventories and Management .............................................................................. 700D.4.1 Non-WSA Lands with Wilderness Characteristics (LWCs) and Natural Areas ....... 701D.4.2 BLM Wilderness Policy from 2010 to 2014 ................................................................... 704

D.4.3 Natural Area Management by Field Office .................................................................... 705D.4.4 Field Offices without Natural Areas ............................................................................... 706D.4.5 Proposed Red Rock Wilderness ...................................................................................... 706D.4.6 Oil & Gas Lease Offerings and Parcel Deferrals for Wilderness ............................... 708

D.5 Sage-Grouse ESA Listings ........................................................................................................ 712D.5.1 Listing Status for Each Species ........................................................................................ 712D.5.2 Habitat ................................................................................................................................. 713D.5.3 State of Utah Greater Sage-Grouse Conservation Plan ............................................... 713D.5.4 BLM Sage-Grouse Policy and Mineral Leasing ............................................................. 715D.5.5 Oil & Gas Lease Offerings and Parcel Deferrals for Sage-Grouse ............................ 716

References ........................................................................................................................................... 717Appendix E: Economic Impact Modeling .......................................................................................... 721

E.1 Input-Output Models ................................................................................................................. 721E.1.1 Estimating Economic Impacts and Effects Using RIMS II ........................................ 721E.1.2 Estimating Economic Impacts Using REMI PI+ ......................................................... 722E.1.3 Estimating Fiscal Impacts ................................................................................................. 722E.1.4 Terms Used in This Report .............................................................................................. 723

Appendix F: Grazing Cattle Budgets ................................................................................................... 725F.1 Livestock Enterprise Budgets ................................................................................................... 725

F.1.1 Baseline Cow/Calf Enterprise Budgets ........................................................................... 727

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Table 2.26 National Forest Acres in Utah and Adjoining States ....................................................... 45Table 2.27 National Forest Acreage in Utah, by County .................................................................... 46Table 2.28 U.S. Forest Service Receipts and Revenue, Utah Forests, FY2008FY2012 ............... 48Table 2.29 U.S. Forest Service Utah Forest Employment and Spending, FY2008FY2012 ........ 49Table 2.30 U.S. Forest Service Utah Employment and Spending, FY2008FY2012 Utah

Forests and Regional Office Allocations ................................................................................. 51Table 2.31 Economic Impacts of U.S. Forest Service Average Annual Estimate for

FY2008FY2012 ......................................................................................................................... 51

Table 2.32 U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Management Spending, FY2008FY2012 ....................... 52Table 2.33 U.S. Forest Service Fire Statistics for Utah Forests, FY2003FY2012 ......................... 53Table 2.34 U.S. Forest Service, Utah Assets ......................................................................................... 53Table 2.35 U.S. Forest Service Detailed Spending for Maintenance, Deferred Maintenance

and Capital Improvements, FY2008FY2012 ........................................................................ 54Table 2.36 U.S. Forest Service Deferred Maintenance Backlog, Utah Assets ................................. 54Table 2.37 U.S. Forest Service Commercial Livestock Grazing Statistics for National Forests

in Utah, FY2003FY2012 .......................................................................................................... 56Table 2.38 U.S. Forest Service Grazing Revenue and Expenditures for Utah Forests,

FY2008FY2012 ......................................................................................................................... 56

Table 2.39 U.S. Forest Service Top Recreational Activities in Utah National Forests .................. 57Table 2.40 U.S. Forest Service Revenue and Spending for Recreation, FY2008FY2012 ............ 58

Table 2.41 U.S. Forest Service Payments to Counties in Utah, FY2012 and FY2013 ................... 61Table 2.42 U.S. Forest Service Summary Financial Efficiency Measures, FY2008FY2012 ........ 62Table 2.43 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Employment and Appropriations,

FY2011FY2012 ......................................................................................................................... 65Table 2.44 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Employment, Revenue and Spending National

Wildlife Refuges and National Fish Hatcheries in Utah, FY2008FY2011 ....................... 65Table 2.45 Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge Employment, Revenue and Spending,

FY2008FY2011 ......................................................................................................................... 66Table 2.46 Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge Employment, Revenue and Spending,

FY2008FY2011 ......................................................................................................................... 67

Table 2.47 Ouray National Wildlife Refuge Employment, Revenue and Spending,FY2008FY2011 ......................................................................................................................... 68

Table 2.48 Ouray National Fish Hatchery Employment, Revenue and Spending,FY2008FY2011 ......................................................................................................................... 68

Table 2.49 Jones Hole National Fish Hatchery Employment, Revenue and Spending,FY2008FY2011 ......................................................................................................................... 69

Table 2.50 Economic Impacts of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Average AnnualEstimate for FY2007FY2011 .................................................................................................. 69

Table 2.51 Acres of Trust Land by County, 2013 ................................................................................ 73Table 2.52 Utah School and Institutional Trust Land Administration Summary of Revenues,

Expenditures and Employment, 20082012 ........................................................................... 76

Table 2.53 State of Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration MineralsGroup Operating Revenue and Expenses ............................................................................... 77

Table 2.54 State of Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration SurfaceGroup Operating Revenue and Expenses ............................................................................... 80

Table 2.55 State of Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration DevelopmentGroup Operating Revenue and Expenses ............................................................................... 82

Table 2.56 Original Trust Land Grants and Current Holdings.......................................................... 83

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Table 2.57 Comparison of School Trust Fund Distributions, FY2012 SelectedWestern States .............................................................................................................................. 85

Table 2.58 SITLA Acreage in or Near Wilderness, National Parks and NationalForests, 2012 ................................................................................................................................ 86

Table 2.59 Forestry, Fire and State Lands Operating Budget by Funding Source,FY2009FY2013 ......................................................................................................................... 89

Table 2.60 Forestry, Fire and State Lands Revenue by Source, FY2009FY2013 .......................... 90

Table 2.61 Forestry, Fire and State Lands Operating Expenditures, FY2009FY2013 ................. 90

Table 2.62 Utah Division of Forestry, Fire, and State Lands: Fires, Acres Burned and FireSuppression Costs, FY2003FY2013 ....................................................................................... 92

Table 2.63 Forestry, Fire and State Lands Performance Measures, FY2008FY2013 ................... 93Table 2.64 Utah State Parks Operating and Capital Budgets by Funding Source,

FY2009FY2013 ......................................................................................................................... 97Table 2.65 Utah State Parks Operating Expenditures, FY2009FY2013 ..................................... 100Table 2.66 Utah State Parks Expenditures for Lands Managed, FY2013 ..................................... 101Table 2.67 Utah State Parks Land Area, Visitation and Finances ................................................... 103Table 2.68 DWR Funding, FY2009FY2013 .................................................................................... 110Table 2.69 DWR Federal Revenue, FY2009-2013 ............................................................................ 111

Table 2.70 DWR Operating Expenditures and Employment, FY2009FY2013......................... 112Table 2.71 DWR Program Spending besides Operating Expenditures, FY2009FY2013......... 112

Table 3.1 Summary Oil and Gas Royalties and Tax Revenues ....................................................... 124Table 3.2 Total Land-Based Revenue in FY2013 .............................................................................. 125Table 3.3 Oil and Gas Forecast 1 Reference Price Baseline: 50% on Existing & 50% on

New Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ..................................................... 128 Table 3.4 Oil and Gas Forecast 2: Reference Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty .............................................................. 129Table 3.5 Oil and Gas Forecast 3: Reference Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline + 15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ................................................. 130Table 3.6 Oil and Gas Forecast 4: Reference Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline + 15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ................................................. 131

Table 3.7 Oil and Gas Forecast 5: Reference Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on NewRoyalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 16.7% Royalty .................................................. 132

Table 3.8 Oil and Gas Reference Price Scenarios Net Effects Summary ...................................... 133Table 3.9 Oil and Gas Forecast 6 Low Price Baseline: 50% on Existing & 50% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty .............................................................. 134Table 3.10 Oil and Gas Forecast 7: Low Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New Royalty

Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ............................................................................. 135Table 3.11 Oil and Gas Forecast 8: Low Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New Royalty

Sharing, Baseline + 15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ............................................................... 136Table 3.12 Oil and Gas Forecast 9: Low Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on New Royalty

Sharing, Baseline + 15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ............................................................... 137

Table 3.13 Oil and Gas Forecast 10: Low Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on NewRoyalty Sharing, Baseline + 15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ................................................. 138

Table 3.14 Oil and Gas Low Price Forecasts Net Effects Summary ............................................. 139Table 3.15 Utah Coal Production Scenarios, 20172015 ................................................................. 141Table 3.16 Summary of Oil and Gas Forecasts and Coal Projections ........................................... 141Table 3.17 Mineral Lease Revenue, Except Oil, Gas and Coal Royalties, FY2003FY2013 ..... 142Table 3.18 Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service Land-Based Revenues,

by Source ................................................................................................................................... 143

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Table 3.19a Federal Land Management Agencies Efficiency Measures ......................................... 145Table 3.19b BLM and Forest Service Efficiency Measures Excluding Wildfire

Management, FY2012 ............................................................................................................... 145Table 3.20 State Agencies Efficiency Measures.................................................................................. 146Table 3.21 Estimated Cost to Manage Rangelands ............................................................................ 146Table 3.22 State Forestry Programs Employment, Spending and Revenue, FY2013 .................. 147Table 3.23 Estimated Cost to Manage Forest Lands ......................................................................... 148

Table 3.24 Estimated Cost to Manage Hatcheries and Fisheries ..................................................... 148

Table 3.25 Estimated Costs to Manage Glen Canyon National Recreation Area ......................... 149Table 3.26 Wildfire Management Costs, FY20032012 Average .................................................... 150Table 3.27 Estimated Cost to Manage Transferred Lands in 2017 and 2022 ................................ 150Table 3.28 Distribution of Federal Mineral Revenues In Utah ....................................................... 151Table 4.1 Mountain West Year of Statehood and State Trust Land Sections ............................... 155Table 4.2 Percent of Federal Land Ownership in 2010 .................................................................... 157Table 4.3 Federal Acreage by Land Management Agencies, 2010 .................................................. 157Table 4.4 Review of the Literature on the Environment, Public Land, and Economic

Growth: Direct Effects ............................................................................................................ 163Table 4.5 Annualized economic growth rates between 2000 and 2007, and 2000 and 2010 ...... 170

Table 4.6 Data, Descriptions, Sources and Time Period of Data .................................................... 171Table 4.7 Descriptive Statistics ............................................................................................................. 173

Table 4.8 Percent of Land Type, by Statea.......................................................................................... 174Table 4.9 Land Ownership and Management, by County Typea..................................................... 175Table 4.10 USDA Defined Commuting Zones, 2000a...................................................................... 176Table 4.11 Baseline Specification, No Spatial Weighting .................................................................. 178Table 4.12 Baseline Specification, Reduced Form ............................................................................. 181Table 4.13 P-values for Spatial Correlation Tests .............................................................................. 183Table 4.14 Model 2, Generalized Spatial 3SLS, 20002007 ............................................................. 183Table 4.15 Test of Parameter Equality, 3SLS vs. GS3SLS (20002007) ........................................ 185Table 4.16 Census Designated Central Cities ..................................................................................... 186

Table 4.17 Add Central-City Designation and State-level Fixed Effects, No SpatialWeighting .................................................................................................................................... 187Table 4.18 Baseline Specification, Drop 26 Counties with Central Cities ...................................... 188Table 4.19 Add State Fixed Effects, Drop 26 Counties with Central Cities .................................. 189Table 4.20 Extreme Values (Turning Points) for Quadratic Land Ownership Relationships .... 191Table 4.21 Instruments .......................................................................................................................... 205Table 4.22 Instrumental Variable Models for NPS, PROTECTED, OTHER ............................. 206Table 4.23 Instrumental Variable Models for FEDGEN, FEDGEN2, STGEN, STGEN2....... 207Table 4.24 P-values for Instrumented Land Variables, 20002007 3SLS Model,

Durbin-Wu-Hausman Test ...................................................................................................... 208Table 4.25 Simple Linear and Quadratic Specifications, 20002007, No Spatial Weighting ...... 208Table 4.26 Simple Linear and Quadratic Specifications, 20002010, No Spatial Weighting ...... 208

Table 4.27 Baseline Specification, No Land Variables and No Spatial Weighting........................ 209

Table 4.28 Linear Land Specification, No Spatial Weighting ........................................................... 210Table 4.29 Population, Employment, and Income Density Measures, by Central City ............... 211Table 4.30 Baseline Specification, Add Retirement County ............................................................. 212Table 4.31 Extreme Values (Turning Points) for Alternative Specifications ................................. 213Table 5.1 Total Land-Based Federal Funds Received in FY2013 ................................................... 215Table 5.2 Federal Mineral Lease Revenues and Disbursements by Type and Commodity,

FY20032013 ............................................................................................................................. 217

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Table 5.3 Distribution of Federal Mineral Revenues in Utah ......................................................... 218Table 5.4 Mineral Lease Distributions from UDOT to Counties, FY20032013 ....................... 219Table 5.5 Federal PILT Payments to Counties, 20032013 ............................................................ 221Table 5.6 School District Revenues from Federal PILT Payments to Counties,

FY2003FY2013 ...................................................................................................................... 223Table 5.7 Change in Federal Acres by County per H.B. 148 ........................................................... 224Table 5.8 Secure Rural Schools Payments to Counties by the U.S. Forest Service,

FY2003FY2013 ...................................................................................................................... 226

Table 5.9 Change in US Forest Service Acres by County per H.B. 148 ........................................ 230Table 5.10 Payments of Federal Funds to Utah Counties, 2012..................................................... 231Table 5.11 BLM Payments to Utah ..................................................................................................... 232Table 5.12 Disbursement of BLM Grazing Fees by Utah Department of Agriculture and

Food, FY2003FY2013 ........................................................................................................... 233Table 5.13 US Fish and Wildlife Service Payments to Counties, FY2007FY2012 .................... 234Table 5.14 Division of Oil, Gas & Mining Coal Program ............................................................... 235Table 5.15 Federal Land Share and State Matching Rates for Federal Highway Funds .............. 237Table 6.1 Mining-Related State Tax Revenues, FY2003FY2013 .................................................. 242Table 6.2 Oil and Gas State Tax Revenues Attributable to Production on Federal Land,

20032013 ................................................................................................................................. 243Table 6.3 Statewide Taxable Mining Sales, 20032013 .................................................................... 244

Table 6.4 Estimated State Revenue from Taxable Mining Sales, 20032013 ............................... 245Table 6.5 State Revenue from Taxable Mining Sales Attributable to Activity on Federal

Land, 20032012 ...................................................................................................................... 246Table 6.6 Taxable Mining Sales by County, 20032013 ................................................................... 247Table 6.7 Estimated County Revenues from Taxable Mining Sales, 20032013 ......................... 248Table 6.8 Total Natural Resources Taxable Values by County, 20042013 ................................. 250Table 6.9 Detail of Natural Resources Taxable Values in 2013 ...................................................... 251Table 6.10 Total Natural Resources Property Taxes Charged by County, 20042013 ............... 252Table 6.11 Detail of Natural Resources Property Taxes Charged in 2013 .................................... 253

Table 6.12 Estimated Oil & Gas and Coal Mine Property Taxes Attributable to Activity onFederal Land, 2013 ................................................................................................................... 254Table 7.1 Estimated Economic Contributions of Activities in Utah ............................................. 255Table 7.2 Estimated Fiscal Contributions of Activities on Federal Lands .................................... 256Table 7.3 Recreational Values by Valuation Method ........................................................................ 263Table 7.4 Recreational Values by Public Land Type ......................................................................... 266Table 7.5 Aggregate Measures of Consumer Surplus for Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-

Associated Recreation on USFS and BLM Lands ............................................................... 267Table 7.6 Aggregate Measures of Consumer Surplus for Outdoor Recreation on USFS and

BLM Land ................................................................................................................................. 268Table 7.7 Establishments, Employment, and Wages in Food and Accommodations for the

State of Utah, 20012013 ........................................................................................................ 272

Table 7.8 Variable Sources and Descriptive Statistics ...................................................................... 275

Table 7.9 GEE Model Results ............................................................................................................. 275Table 7.10 Summary of Wildlife-Associated Recreation, FY2011 .................................................. 277Table 7.11 Number of Big Game Hunters Afield, by Game Type and Region, FY2012 ........... 279Table 7.12 Summary of Fishing in Utah, 2011 .................................................................................. 282Table 7.13 Number of Trips Where Fishing Was the Primary Activity by County, 2011 .......... 282Table 7.14 Wildlife-watching in Utah by State Residents and Nonresidents, 2011 ..................... 284

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Table 7.15 Participation of Utah Resident Wildlife-Watching Participants in Fishing andHunting: 2011 ............................................................................................................................ 285

Table 7.16 Hunting Expenditures in Utah, 2011 ............................................................................... 286Table 7.17 Fishing Expenditures in Utah, 2011 ................................................................................. 287Table 7.18 Wildlife-Viewing Expenditures in Utah, 2011 ................................................................ 288Table 7.19 Estimated Economic and Fiscal Contributions of Hunting, Fishing and Wildlife

Viewing in Utah, 2011 .............................................................................................................. 289

Table 7.20 Crude Oil Production in Utah by County and Landowner, 20032013 ..................... 291

Table 7.21 Crude Oil Production in Utah by County with Share by Landowner, 20032013 .... 292Table 7.22 Gross Withdrawals of Natural Gas in Utah by County and Landowner,

20032013 .................................................................................................................................. 294Table 7.23 Gross Withdrawals of Natural Gas in Utah by County with Shares by

Landowner, 20032013 ............................................................................................................ 295Table 7.24 Value of Crude Oil and Marketed Natural Gas Production in Utah by County

and Landowner, 20032013 .................................................................................................... 297Table 7.25 Value of Crude Oil and Marketed Natural Gas Production in Utah by County

with Shares by Landowner, 20032013 ................................................................................. 298Table 7.26 Oil and Gas Production Value per Acre by County and Landowner, 2013 ............... 299

Table 7.27 Direct Employment and Earnings in Utahs Oil and Gas Industry, 2013 .................. 300Table 7.28 Total Estimated Economic Contribution of the Oil and Gas Industry in

Utah, 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 301Table 7.29 Estimated Economic Contribution of Oil and Gas Extraction in Utah, 2013 .......... 302Table 7.30 Estimated Economic Contribution of Support Activities for Oil and Gas

Operations in Utah, 2013 ......................................................................................................... 303Table 7.31 Estimated Economic Contribution of Drilling Oil and Gas Wells in Utah, 2013 .... 304Table 7.32 Estimated Fiscal Impacts of the Oil and Gas Industry in Utah, 2013 ........................ 304Table 7.33 Estimated Economic Contributions of the Oil and Gas Industry by

County, 2013 .............................................................................................................................. 305Table 7.34 Estimated Economic Contribution of Oil and Gas Extraction by County, 2013 ..... 307

Table 7.35 Economic Contribution of Drilling Oil and Gas Wells and Support Activitiesfor Oil and Gas Operations by County, 2013 ....................................................................... 308Table 7.36 Estimated Local Fiscal Impacts of Oil and Gas Extraction in Utah Counties by

Source, 2013 ............................................................................................................................... 309Table 7.37 Coal Production by County and Lease Owner, 20032013 .......................................... 309Table 7.38 Value of Coal Production by County and Land Ownership, 20032013 ................... 312Table 7.39 Direct Employment and Earnings in Utahs Coal Industry, 2013 ............................... 312Table 7.40 Total Estimated Economic Contribution of the Coal Mining Industry in

Utah, 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 313Table 7.41 Estimated Economic Contribution of Coal Mining in Utah, 2013 ............................. 314Table 7.42 Estimated Economic Contribution of Support Activities for Coal Mining in

Utah, 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 315

Table 7.43 Estimated Fiscal Impacts of Coal Mining, 2013 ............................................................. 315

Table 7.44 Support Activities for Coal Mining Employment and Wages by County, 2013 ........ 316Table 7.45 Estimated Economic Contribution of Coal Mining and Support Activities in

Utah by County, 2013 ............................................................................................................... 316Table 7.46 Estimated Economic Contribution of Coal Mining in Utah by County, 2013 .......... 317Table 7.47 Estimated Economic Contribution of Support Activities for Coal Mining in

Utah by County, 2013 ............................................................................................................... 317

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Table 7.48 Estimated Local Fiscal Impacts of Coal Mining and Support Activities in UtahCounties by Source, 2013 ........................................................................................................ 318

Table 7.49 Metals Production in Utah, 20022013 ........................................................................... 319Table 7.50 Mineral Production on Federal Lands in Utah, FY20032013 ................................... 320Table 7.51 Utah Estimated Metalliferous and Industrial Mineral Production Values,

20022013 ................................................................................................................................. 321Table 7.52 Sales Value of Mineral Production on Federal Lands in Utah, FY20032013.......... 323

Table 7.53 Direct Employment and Earnings in Utah's Nonfuel Mining Sectors, 2013 ............ 324

Table 7.54 Total Estimated Economic Contributions of Utah's Nonfuel Mining Sectors,2013 ............................................................................................................................................ 325

Table 7.55 Estimated Economic Contributions of Mineral Mining in Utah, 2013 ...................... 326Table 7.56 Estimated Economic Contributions of Support Activities for Metal and

Nonmetallic Mineral Mining in Utah, 2013 .......................................................................... 327Table 7.57 Estimated Fiscal Impacts of Nonfuel Mineral Mining, 2013 ....................................... 327Table 7.58 Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service Grazing Trends,

20002012 ................................................................................................................................. 333Table 7.59 Allocation of Cattle AUMs by Region and Agency ....................................................... 335Table 7.60 State Summary Estimated Operational Spending of Federal Grazing

Permittees, 2013........................................................................................................................ 337Table 7.61 Estimated Economic Contributions of Federal Grazing in Utah, 2013 .................... 338

Table 7.62 Estimated Fiscal Impacts of Grazing in Utah, 2013 ..................................................... 338Table 7.63 Western Production Region Estimated Operational Spending, 2013 ........................ 339Table 7.64 Western Production Region Economic Contributions of Federal Grazing, 2013 ... 340Table 7.65 Eastern Production Region Estimated Operational Spending, 2013 ......................... 341Table 7.66 Eastern Production Region Economic Contributions of Federal Grazing, 2013 ..... 342Table 7.67 Southern Production Region Estimated Operational Spending, 2013 ....................... 343Table 7.68 Southern Production Region Economic Contributions of Federal Grazing, 2013 .. 343Table 7.69 Net Geothermal Electricity Generation in Utah, 20012013 ...................................... 344Table 7.70 Geothermal Revenues from Federal Leases, FY2003FY2013 .................................. 344

Table 7.71 Estimated Economic and Fiscal Contributions of Geothermal SteamProduction on Federal Land in Utah, 2013 .......................................................................... 345 Table 7.72 Utah Timber Harvest by County for Selected Years, 19742007 ............................... 347Table 7.73 Timber Harvest on Public Lands in Utah, FY2003-2012............................................. 349Table 7.74 Utah Timberland Productivity by Ownership, FY20032012 ..................................... 350Table 7.75 Timber Products Received as Inputs at Utah Mills, Selected Years ........................... 350Table 7.76 U.S. Forest Service Timber Harvest in Utah, Selected Years, FY19802012 ........... 351Table 7.77 Forest Products Sold in Utah by BLM, FY20012012 ................................................. 352Table 7.78 SITLA Timber Harvest, FY20012013 .......................................................................... 354Table 7.79 Utah Timber Companies with Employees, 20121.......................................................... 357Table 7.80 Utah Timber Nonemployer Establishments, 20111 ...................................................... 358Table 7.81 Utah Timber Companies with Employees, 20082012 ................................................ 360

Table 7.82 Utah Timber Companies without Employees, 199820121......................................... 361

Table 7.83 Utah Forestry and Logging Companies with Employees, 19902012 ....................... 362Table 7.84 Primary Wood Products Facilities, Utah 2002 ............................................................... 363Table 7.85 Notifications from Forest Operators by Type, 200220131........................................ 365Table 7.86 Notifications from forest operators by region, 20032013 .......................................... 365Table 7.87 Utah Timber Industry Businesses with Covered Employees, 2012 Wages and

Employment .............................................................................................................................. 367Table 7.88 Utah Timber Industry Nonemployer Establishments, 2012 Sales .............................. 367

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Table 7.89 Utah Timber Industry Nonemployer Establishments, 2012 Estimated Earningsand Employment ....................................................................................................................... 367

Table 7.90 Economic Impacts of the Timber Industry in Utah, 2012 ........................................... 368Table 8.1 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves in Utah, 20032012 ................................ 374Table 8.2 Utah Coal Resources by Landownership, 2013 ................................................................ 378Table 8.3 Coal Production in Utah by Mine, 20082013 ................................................................. 380Table 8.4 Utah Estimated Energy and Mineral Production Values, 20022012 ........................... 387

Table 8.5 Potash Exploration Projects in Utah, 2012 ....................................................................... 401Table 8.6 Summary of Areas Having Mineral Resource Potential in and Adjacent to the

Wah Wah WSA .......................................................................................................................... 427Table 8.7 King Top WSA Mineral and Energy Rating Summary .................................................... 464Table 8.8 Supply Cost Estimates for Ex Situ and In Situ Oil Shale and Oil Sands

Operations .................................................................................................................................. 468Table 8.9 Existing Renewable Energy Generation in Utah by Source, 20032013 ...................... 469Table 8.10 WREZ Renewable Energy Generating Capacity ............................................................ 470Table 8.11 Renewable Energy Resources by UREZ Zone ............................................................... 473Table 8.12 Utah Forest Land and Timberland by Ownership ......................................................... 474Table 8.13 Utah Forest Types by Land Area, 2012 ........................................................................... 476

Table 8.14 Utah Harvest Volume by Tree Type, 2007...................................................................... 476Table 8.15 Utahs Timberland and Forest Land by County, 2012 .................................................. 478Table 8.16 Timberland and Forest Shares of County Acreage in Utah, 2012 ............................... 479Table 8.17 Utah Forest Types by County ........................................................................................... 480Table 8.18 County Timberland by Ownership, Utah, 2012 ............................................................. 482Table 9.1 Wildfire in Western States, 20032012 .............................................................................. 494Table 9.2 Utah Wildfires by Landowner and Fire Severity, 20032012 ......................................... 496Table 9.3 Acres Burned by Land Owner in Utah, 200320131 ....................................................... 497Table 9.4 Number of Fires by Land Owner in Utah, 200320131 ................................................. 498Table 9.5 Acres Burned in Utah by Vegetation and Fire Severity, 20032012.............................. 499Table 9.6 Very Large Fires in Utah, 198520121 ............................................................................... 500

Table 9.7 Share of Utah Land Area in Drought Conditions, 20002013 ....................................... 503Table 9.8 Utah Wildfire Spending per Acre, FY2008FY2012 ....................................................... 507Table 9.9 Utah Wildfire Spending, FY2008FY2012 ........................................................................ 508Table 9.10 Agency Shares of Wildfire Spending in Utah, FY2008FY2012 ................................. 508Table 9.11 Utah Wildfire Share of Agency Expenditures, FY2008FY2012 ................................ 509Table 9.12 Wildfire Suppression Expenditures in Utah, FY2003FY2012 ................................... 510Table 9.13 Non-Suppression Wildfire-Related Expenditures in Utah, FY2003FY2012 ........... 515Table 9.14 Utah Forestry, Fire & State Lands Wildfire Expenditures, FY2003FY2013 ........... 516Table 9.15 BLM Expenditures for Wildfire, FY2003FY2012 ....................................................... 518Table 9.16 Forest Service Expenditures for Wildfire, FY2003FY2012 ........................................ 518Table 9.17 Costs for Three Catastrophic Wildfires ........................................................................... 519Table 9.18 Prescribed Fire and Wildland Fire Use in Utah, 20032013......................................... 527

Table 9.19 Estimated Net Revenue from Fuels Reduction in Utah, 20002009 .......................... 530Table 10.1 Minimum School Program, FY2014 ................................................................................ 539Table 10.2 Value of Weighted Pupil Units, 20002014 .................................................................... 539Table 10.3 SITLA Annual Distribution to Public Schools ............................................................... 541Table 10.4 PILT payments to Local School Districts by County, FY2008FY2013 ................... 542Table 10.5 Secure Rural Schools Title I Payments to School Districts by County,

FY2008FY2013 ....................................................................................................................... 543Table 10.6 State Public School Enrollment and Change, 19902014 ............................................. 545

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Table 10.7 School-Age Population in Utah, 20002020 ................................................................... 545Table 11.1 Participation in Outdoor Recreation Activities on Public Lands in Utah,

by County-Level Protected Land Acreage ............................................................................. 561Table 11.2 Participation in Outdoor Recreation Activities on Public Lands in Utah,

by County-Level U.S. Forest Service Land Acreage ............................................................ 562Table 11.3 Participation in Outdoor Recreation Activities on Public Lands in Utah,

by County-Level National Park Service Land Acreage ........................................................ 562

Table 11.4 Participation in Outdoor Recreation Activities on Public Lands in Utah,by County-Level Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage .......................................... 563

Table 11.5 Participation in Outdoor Recreation Activities on Public Lands in Utah,by County-Level Wilderness Area Land Acreage ................................................................. 564

Table 11.6 Participation in Gathering of Materials for Personal Use on Public Lands inUtah, by County-Level Protected Land Acreage .................................................................. 565

Table 11.7 Participation in Gathering of Materials for Personal Use on Public Lands inUtah, by County-Level U.S. Forest Service Land Acreage .................................................. 565

Table 11.8 Participation in Gathering of Materials for Personal Use on Public Lands inUtah, by County-Level National Park Service Land Acreage ............................................. 566

Table 11.9 Participation in Gathering of Materials for Personal Use on Public Lands in

Utah, by County-Level Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage................................ 566Table 11.10 Participation in Gathering of Materials for Personal Use on Public Lands in

Utah, by County-Level Wilderness Area Land Acreage ...................................................... 566Table 11.11 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Public Land Commodity

Production/Resource Utilization Activities as Contributors to Community Qualityof Life, by County-Level Protected Land Acreage ............................................................... 568

Table 11.12 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Public Land CommodityProduction/Resource Utilization Activities as Contributors to Community Qualityof Life, by County-Level U.S. Forest Service Land Acreage .............................................. 568

Table 11.13 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Public Land CommodityProduction/Resource Utilization Activities as Contributors to Community Quality

of Life, by County-Level National Park Service Land Acreage .......................................... 569Table 11.14 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Public Land CommodityProduction/Resource Utilization Activities as Contributors to Community Qualityof Life, by County-Level Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage ............................ 569

Table 11.15 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Public Land Commodity Production/Resource Utilization Activities as Contributors to Community Quality of Life, byCounty-Level Wilderness Area Land Acreage ...................................................................... 569

Table 11.16 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Hunting/Fishing/ Off-Road MotorizedRecreation Opportunities on Public Lands as Contributors to Community Quality ofLife, by County-Level Protected Land Acreage .................................................................... 570

Table 11.17 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Hunting/Fishing/Off-Road MotorizedRecreation Opportunities on Public Lands as Contributors to Community Quality of

Life, by County-Level U.S. Forest Service Land Acreage ................................................... 571Table 11.18 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Hunting/Fishing/Off-Road Motorized

Recreation Opportunities on Public Lands as Contributors to Community Quality ofLife, by County-Level National Park Service Land Acreage ............................................... 571

Table 11.19 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Hunting/Fishing/Off-Road MotorizedRecreation Opportunities on Public Lands as Contributors to Community Quality ofLife, by County-Level Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage ................................. 572

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Table 11.20 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Hunting/Fishing/Off-Road MotorizedRecreation Opportunities on Public Lands as Contributors to Community Quality ofLife, by County-Level Wilderness Area Land Acreage ........................................................ 572

Table 11.21 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Habitat and Biodiversity Protectionand Nonmotorized Recreational Uses of Public Lands as Contributors to CommunityQuality of Life, by County-Level Protected Land Acreage ................................................. 573

Table 11.22 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Habitat and Biodiversity Protection

and Nonmotorized Recreational Uses of Public Lands as Contributors to CommunityQuality of Life, by County-Level U.S. Forest Service Land Acreage ................................ 574

Table 11.23 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Habitat and Biodiversity Protectionand Nonmotorized Recreational Uses of Public Lands as Contributors to CommunityQuality of Life, by County-Level National Park Service Land Acreage ........................... 574

Table 11.24 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Habitat and Biodiversity Protectionand Nonmotorized Recreational Uses of Public Lands as Contributors to CommunityQuality of Life, by County-Level Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage .............. 575

Table 11.25 Residents Ratings of the Importance of Habitat and Biodiversity Protectionand Nonmotorized Recreational Uses of Public Lands as Contributors to CommunityQuality of Life, by County-Level Wilderness Area Land Acreage ..................................... 575

Table 11.26 Residents Levels of Agreement that Natural Settings on Public Lands Providethe Best Opportunities to Enjoy Things They Like to Do Most, by County-LevelProtected Land Acreage ........................................................................................................... 576

Table 11.27 Residents Levels of Agreement that Natural Settings on Public Lands Providethe Best Opportunities to Enjoy Things They Like to Do Most, by County-LevelU.S. Forest Service Land Acreage ........................................................................................... 577

Table 11.28 Residents Levels of Agreement that Natural Settings on Public Lands Providethe Best Opportunities to Enjoy Things They Like to Do Most, by County-LevelNational Park Service Land Acreage ...................................................................................... 577

Table 11.29 Residents Levels of Agreement that Natural Settings on Public Lands Providethe Best Opportunities to Enjoy Things They Like to Do Most, by County-Level

Bureau of Land Management Land Acreage ......................................................................... 578Table 11.30 Residents Levels of Agreement that Natural Settings on Public Lands Providethe Best Opportunities to Enjoy Things They Like to Do Most, by County-LevelWilderness Area Land Acreage ............................................................................................... 578

Table 11.31 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands and the Natural SettingsThey Contain Are Important to Their Personal Identities, by County-LevelProtected Land Acreage ........................................................................................................... 579

Table 11.32 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands and the Natural SettingsThey Contain Are Important to Their Personal Identities, by County-Level U.S.Forest Service Land Acreage ................................................................................................... 579

Table 11.33 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands and the Natural SettingsThey Contain Are Important to Their Personal Identities, by County-Level

National Park Service Land Acreage ...................................................................................... 580Table 11.34 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands and the Natural Settings

They Contain Are Important to Their Personal Identities, by County-LevelBureau of Land Management Land Acreage ......................................................................... 580

Table 11.35 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands and the Natural SettingsThey Contain Are Important to Their Personal Identities, by County-LevelWilderness Area Land Acreage ............................................................................................... 581

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Table 11.36 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands Are Important to the Cultureand Heritage of Their Communities, by County-Level Protected Land Acreage ............ 581

Table 11.37 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands Are Important to the Cultureand Heritage of Their Communities, by County-Level U.S. Forest ServiceLand Acreage ............................................................................................................................. 582

Table 11.38 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands Are Important to the Cultureand Heritage of Their Communities, by County-Level National Park Service

Land Acreage ............................................................................................................................. 582Table 11.39 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands Are Important to the Culture

and Heritage of Their Communities, by County-Level Bureau of Land ManagementLand Acreage ............................................................................................................................. 583

Table 11.40 Residents Levels of Agreement that Public Lands Are Important to the Cultureand Heritage of Their Communities, by County-Level Wilderness AreaLand Acreage ............................................................................................................................. 583

Table 12.1 Land Ownership in Utah by Type by County, Acres and Share, 2014 ........................ 591Table 13.1 Oil and Gas Forecast 1Reference Price Baseline: 50% on Existing & 50% on

New Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ...................................................... 605Table 13.2 Oil and Gas Forecast 2Reference Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ............................................................... 605Table 13.3 Oil and Gas Forecast 3Reference Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ................................................... 606Table 13.4 Oil and Gas Forecast 4Reference Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 16.7% Royalty ................................................... 606Table 13.5 Oil and Gas Forecast 5Reference Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 16.7% Royalty ................................................... 607Table 13.6 Oil and Gas Forecast 6Low Price Baseline: 50% on Existing & 50% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ............................................................... 607Table 13.7 Oil and Gas Forecast 7Low Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New Royalty

Sharing, Baseline Drilling, 12.5% Royalty .............................................................................. 608

Table 13.8 Oil and Gas Forecast 8Low Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New RoyaltySharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty.................................................................. 608Table 13.9 Oil and Gas Forecast 9Low Prices, 50% on Existing & 100% on New Royalty

Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 16.7% Royalty.................................................................. 609Table 13.10 Oil and Gas Forecast 10Low Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 16.7% Royalty ................................................... 609Table 13.11 Oil and Gas Forecast 11Reference Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on

New Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty .......................................... 610Table 13.12 Oil and Gas Forecast 12Low Prices, 100% on Existing & 100% on New

Royalty Sharing, Baseline +15% Drilling, 12.5% Royalty ................................................... 610Table 13.13a Oil and Gas Reference Price Baseline: Summary Forecasts, 20172036 ................ 614Table 13.13b Oil and Gas Reference Price Baseline: Detailed Employment Forecasts,

20172035 .................................................................................................................................. 614Table 13.13c Oil and Gas Reference Price Baseline:

land transfer analysis final report

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