The Case for the Land-use Sector in the Post-2020 Agreement Paulo Canaveira Climate Change Expert Group Global Forum OECD, Paris, France 16-17th September 2014

The Communication Challenge

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Gross-net, Net-net, Reference Levels,

LULUCF, REDD+, Caps, Carbon Equivalent

Forests, Natural Disturbances

Waga daga daga waga daga

Land Sector Negotiator Heads of Delegation

Other Stakeholders

A Politically Sensitive and Important Sector

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Gross-net, Net-net, Reference Levels,

LULUCF, REDD+, Caps, Carbon Equivalent

Forests, Natural Disturbances

Land Sector Negotiator Heads of Delegation

Biodiversity Market access

Adaptation

Desertification

Food security

Indigenous peoples

The land sector is (not) different and (not so) special

Putting the differences in perspective

The land sector...

• Is the only sector responsible for emissions and removals

• Is affected by inter-annual variability – But so is the power sector; and the need for heating and

cooling; and the emissions from manure management;and the waste sector...

– The more dependent we get on renewable energy, the more inter-annual variability in the energy sector

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Natural Effects and Electricity Production Example from Portugal

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Emissions Power sector

Difference 2009 – 2010

≈ 9% of total annual emissions

The land sector... • Is affected by past management decisons and legacy

effects – But so are decisions in other sectors

• Coal power plants or Nuclear reactors limit energy options for 40+ years

• Hydropower plants limit energy options for 100+ years

• Is reported with high uncertainty (20-100%) – But so are emissions in other sectors / gases

• CH4 is reported with 50-70% uncertainty in all non-LULUCF sectors – 11% in all A1 emissions w/o LULUCF in 2012

• N2O is reported with 100-1000% uncertainty in all non-LULUCF sectors

– 6% in all A1 emissions w/o LULUCF in 2012

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Land Sector not Accounted

Low investment in GHG

Inventories

Inventories have poor quality

Land Sector Accounted

High investment in GHG

Inventories

Inventories have good quality

The land sector is too big...

• Mitigation in the land sector should not replace other sectors

• Mitigation in the other sectors is not enough to offset land sector emissions

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Compliance strategies of countries usually rely on several sectors, not

single sectors

Message for lead climate negotiators: Don’t be afraid of the big scary trees…

• Sure, it’s a sector with it’s own set of challenges… – Other sectors also have their own sets

of challenges

• These challenges need to be addressed, but can be overcome – with good and proper accounting – based on informed technical

discussions

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Message for lead climate negotiators: …land sector is part of the solution

• There is a significant mitigation potential in the sector – Its CO2, CH4 and N2O looks the same as in other

sectors – In some countries it’s the only possible

(meaningful) contribution – Huge recent improvements in reporting quality

• It’s all about (good) rules…

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Reporting and Accounting

• Reporting: process of accumulating, organising, storing, and accessing the information on activity data, emission factors and calculation equations – Describe the amount and trends in emissions and

removals of a particular country, sector, gas, etc. – Assess the quantities that are relevant for accounting

• Accounting: process of comparing the reported quantities with a pre-defined standard or emission target, a comparison which is made using a pre-defined set of accounting rules

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My understanding of “Proper Accounting”

• In a properly developed accounting framework one would expect to see: – Rules for reporting emissions and removals i.e.,

• Common metrics (e.g. use of the same IPCC guidance, GWP, etc.) • Common reporting formats • Review process • [what happens when reported quantities don’t comply with

guidance / when quality of reporting is insufficient] – Rules for accounting emissions and removals i.e.:

• Standard or emission target (per country; sector; or activity...) • Review process • [how to generate and trade credits between countries] • [what happens when targets are not met]

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Elements of the Paris Agreement [the easier ones]

Rules for Reporting • Agreement to use 2006 IPCC Guidelines

– Same calculation procedures and approaches for all countries (flexibility retained by still allowing different “tiers”)

– Standard for time series consistency, transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy

• Agreement to use IPCC AR4 GWPs – Same metrics to convert between different

GHGs for all countries • Agreement to require mandatory

recalculations – Every time better data becomes available;

when review processes detects serious problems in data reporting or methodologies used

Rules for Accounting • Agreement on long term objective to

converge towards full carbon accounting • Agreement on once in, always in

– Lands accounted towards pre-2020 mitigation goals/targets/pledges should remain under accounting post-2020

– Any lands that start being accounted post-2020 are expected to remain under accounting in the future

• Agreement on flexibility over time to add new land uses / activities / pools / gases

– Phased approach – Subject to “once in, always in” and

“recalculations” • Agreement to focus on anthropogenic

emissions and removals – Exclude from accounting non-anthropogenic

sources and sinks to the extent that these can be calculated

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Possible Conflicting Objectives for Paris Land Sector Perspective • Rules before targets • Same rules for all countries

– Requires 3 to 5 years of negotiations

Overall Negotiaton Perspective • Certainty of commitements • Targets before Paris

– Requires that Parties DECIDE their own land-sector rules

– Very unlikely that rules are comparable

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Elements of the Paris Agreement [the difficult and the impossible ones]

Rules for Reporting • Agreement to have expert technical

reviews of inventories of all countries – Same public scrutiny for all countries

• Agreement for the provision of support for inventory development

– Allow all countries to upgrade to the required level

• Agreement to develop common reporting formats by [2018]

– [or agreement to use the CRF reporting tables for A1 UNFCCC reporting as a basis for accounting for all countries]

Rules for Accounting • Agreement on common accounting

rules for all countries – Agreement on requirements for

information on the accounting rules each country is using

– Agreement to account for Key categories – Agreement to negotiate how information

relevant for accounting is to be reported by [2018]

and/or – Agreement to negotiate common

accounting rules by [2018] • Agreement on land sector

participation in carbon markets [will there be a “CDM or JI type” of mechanism?; will there be any other type of market or non-market financial instruments under the UNFCCC?] – Agreement to negotiate terms and

conditions for land sector involvement in carbon markets by [2018]

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