laikipia march 2013

7/28/2019 Laikipia March 2013

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EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 1

OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

MINISTRY OF STATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN KENYA AND OTHER ARID

AREAS

NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

LAIKIPIA COUNTY

DROUGHT MONTHLY BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2013

Livelihood

Zone

Warning

stage

Trend

Pastoral all

species

Alarm Deteriorating

Agro -

pastoral

Alarm Deteriorating

Mixed

farming

Normal Stable

Marginal

mixed

farming

Normal Stable

Alert

Alert


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Situation Overview

The onset of the long rains season in the county was reported by the fourth week of March asby the third week there was no rainfall. The month under review was hence characterized bysunny dry weather conditions with just a few showers in some regions bordering the Nyeri

County. Though the water levels in the county were declining, the main sources of water during the

month remained to be the Natural Rivers, pans and dams, boreholes, shallow wells,traditional river wells and springs. The month recorded reduced activities at the boreholes

and increased activities at the shallow wells and springs. Water accessibility and availability both for household and livestock remained to be fair due

to the continued dry spell. Lack of water for livestock increased by 4% due to depletion ofthe same as the number of livestock increased.

With the dry spell continuing in the County, pasture and forage situation is fair tending topoor. The County recorded deteriorating pasture due to poor precipitation during the month

under review. The fair tending to poor body conditions of livestock can be attributed to inadequate pasture.

The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestock from theneighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture in the grazing

fields which could trigger out migration of livestock to the Mt. Kenya region. Body condition

for the shoats was stable and good as they browsed. The average distances to grazing areas remained stable as livestocks were retained in the

grazing fields.

The average distances to water sources by households also remained stable during the monthunder review. In the County, no constraints to water access were recorded during the month.

The month under review is still recording persistently high above average and stable foodprices which continue to limit households capacity to purchase food and consequently

impact negatively on their food consumption levels. Availability of cereals and legumes werestable and also readily available in the County but with above normal prices.

There was notable increase in the amount of milk produced in bottles during the month underreview which can be attributed to increased calving in the County.

The major agricultural activities recorded in the county were land preparation and planting ofmaize, beans and potatoes especially in the MF and MMF livelihood zones. Early planted

beans and maize were already germinating in areas of Laikipia East and pockets of LaikipiaWest owing to the onset of the rains being received.

Maize prices at the markets were stable during the month under review. Maize prices at thehousehold level remained stable but were slowly declining as traders sourced for other

commodities. Improved access and availability to food across all livelihood zones has impacted positively

to the Nutrition status of children under five years of age. No major disease outbreaks were recorded in the county both for humans and livestock. The County recorded increased Calving and kidding but there was decreased lambing during

the month under review. Recorded in the sentinel sites. No births were recorded in camelsand donkeys.

The County recorded an increased average price of cattle by 40%. Sheep and goat pricesrecorded a slight decline. Poultry recorded increased prices in the month under review.

As wildlife encroach the settlement areas in search of food, they are leaving behind a trail ofdestruction to the crops and conflicts are already being experienced in Withare, Endana andMuruku.

The flagged out areas are Mukogondo especially in Iligwesi and Doldol due to influx oflivestock, Lamuria especially in Withare due to human wildlife conflicts


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Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG

Continued dissemination of weather information and capacity building of communities toprepare appropriately for the March - May 2012 long rains season. The communitiesliving along the valleys, near landslide prone areas and seasonal rivers that are prone to

flash floods to be advised of the risks during this season to avoid disasters. (DSG) Reviewing of the districts disaster preparedness risk reduction/contingency plans to be

able to counter any disasters that might be caused by the heavy down pour expectedduring the long rains season.(action; DSG, NDMA)

Support communities to enhance their water harvesting techniques especially the surfacerunoff and roof catchment.(action; DWO)

Support to the veterinary department to undertake massive Deworming campaigns of alllivestock in the county.(Action DVO/DLPO)

Putting in place intervention measures to curb the human wildlife conflicts especially inareas of Withare, Muruku and Endana(Action: KWS)

Sensitize communities on importance of tree planting during the long rains season.(action:KFS)

Continued supplementary feeding to the under five children and GFD to communitiesaffected by the dry spell. (Action provincial administration)

Support farmers with subsidized fertilizers and seeds for use during the LR plantingseason.(action; DAO)

Enhanced disease surveillance and vaccination of livestock diseases.(action DLPO) Promotion of good infant and young child feeding and vitamin A supplementation.

(Action DNO). Water treatment (action MoH).

1. Environmental indicators

1.1.RainfallAmount of rainfall

The month of March is normally the expected onset of the long rains season. However,the rains were late and all sentinel sites recorded no rainfall by the third week of March.

The onset of the long rains season in the county was reported by the fourth week ofMarch. As per the meteorological weather forecast, the rains were expected by the third

week of March. The month under review was hence characterized by sunny dry weatherconditions with just a few showers in some regions bordering the Nyeri county.

The showers realized during the month were below normal average.


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Courtesy of DAO laikipia West

Temporal / Spatial distribution. The showers received in pockets of the county were poorly distributed in both time and

space.

1.2 conditions of natural vegetation and pastures.

Quality and quantity

With the dry spell continuing in the county, Pasture and forage situation is fair tending topoor. All sentinel sites recorded deteriorating pasture due to poor precipitation during themonth under review. Pasture quantity and quality was deteriorating at a high rate, which

will negatively influence livestock activities if the long rains season is not on time.Pasture constraints were recorded in the pastoral, which had declined, by 0.25%

compared to the previous month. Pasture is not adequate as can be attributed by the fair tending to poor body conditions of

livestock. The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestockfrom the neighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture in

the grazing fields, which could trigger out migration of livestock to the Mt. Kenya region.Body condition for the shoats was stable and good as they browsed. However, the

conditions could be reversed if the onset of the long rains is timely. Current pastures consist of dried failed crop residues salvaged during the short rains

season, maize stovers and wheat straws especially in areas next to the wheat fields. BaledRhodes grass is also available for sales at an average price of between Kshs 150 to Kshs

200. The current forage can sustain the county for the next one month. These will meanthat livestock will be stable as the region waits for the long rains season.


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The pastoral areas received rainfall of 0.10mm, 6.77mm and 60.06mm in the first, secondand third dekad respectively. Rainfall received in the first and second dekad were lower

compared to the LTA of 18.87mm and 16.29mm. The third dekad received rainfallamounting to 60.06mm which was much higher compared to the LTA of 20.42mm.

The MMF areas received rainfall of 1.24mm, 7.31mm and 56.52mm in the first, secondand third dekad respectively. Rainfall received in the first and second dekad was lower


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than the LTA of 12.45mm, 15.91mm but rainfall for the third dekad was much highercompared to the LTA of 19.01mm.

1.3water sources and availabilityWater sources.

Though the water levels in the county were declining, the main sources of water duringthe month remained to be the Natural Rivers, pans and dams, boreholes, shallow wells,

traditional river wells and springs. The month recorded reduced activities at the boreholesand increased activities at the shallow wells and springs.

Areas such as Endana, kimakandura, Matanya and Umande heavily relied on naturalrivers. Withare also utilized natural rivers while heavily relying on boreholes. Kimanjo

and olmoran relied on boreholes. Iligwesi and Mwenje relied on shallow wells. The mainsource of water for Shauri, Ndurumo and muruku were pans and dams. Springs were the

main source of water in Shauri. Those using the natural rivers remained stable during the month. Boreholes usage

decreased by 0.1% that could be attributed to the cost incurred, hence most preferring theshallow wells and the springs. The current distances for the pastoral, agro-pastoral and

mixed farming are within the normal threshold of 4 km, 3 km and 1 km respectively.

Household access to water. The average distances to water sources by households also remained stable during the

month under review. A highest of 2.5km was recorded in the MMF areas while a lowestof 0.6km was recorded in the MF areas. No constraints to water access were recorded

during the month in all the sentinel sites. House hold water accessibility and availability both for household and livestock

remained good but still on a declining trend. Surface water structures dried up in someareas as the dry spell continued. Rivers flows recorded declined flows even some

recording below base flows. Seasonal rivers dried up leaving dry valleys. The situation isexpected to reverse as the long rains season sets in.

Water quality remained good in the county apart from those areas where there was ashared common water point between livestock and those drawing water from the same

point.

Livestock access to water.

The average distances to grazing areas remained stable as livestocks were retained in thegrazing fields. The average grazing distance to water sources was at 1.8km with a highestof 3.1km being recorded in the MMF areas and a lowest of 0.6 being recorded in MF

livelihood zones. However, with the dwindling water sources and influx of livestock fromthe neighboring counties, the situation is expected to worsen. Only the timely onset of the

long rains season could reverse the trend.

A highest average distance from the grazing fields to watering points of 4.4km wasrecorded in Withare attributed to the distances to boreholes while a lowest of 0.4km iniligwesi as livestock utilized the shallow wells and traditional river wells. The situation is

normal at this time of the year.

1.4Emerging issues.1.4.1 Insecurity / conflict / human displacement.


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As wildlife encroach the settlement areas in search of food, they are leaving behind a trail ofdestruction to the crops and conflicts are already being experienced in Withare, Endana and

Muruku. Water and pasture scarcity is already being experienced in the pastoral areas of Mukogondo

due to the influx of livestock from within the county and from the neighboring county ofIsiolo.

1.4.2 Migration.

Livestock that had migrated in areas of Mukogodo are still in the region. A few havestarted going back to the sides of Jua kali and Isiolo.

1.4.3 Other factors likely to affect the livelihoods.

Presently there are no emerging issues in the county that could affect the livelihoods.1.5Implications on food security

Over abstraction in these rivers serving the county could lead to water resource basedconflicts especially in areas experiencing water shortages mostly affecting the livestockkeepers down stream.

The pasture and water situation especially in the pastoral areas is already over stretchedowing to the number of livestock that have migrated into these regions. These could leadto resource-based conflicts.

Marauding elephants and antelopes are hindering agricultural activities in the areas ofWithare, Shauri, Endana and Muruku as farmers prepare their land for planting. Landunder production has drastically been reduced which could lead low food production.

Rural indicators (food Availability)

2.1 Livestock production.

Livestock body condition

Pasture is not adequate as can be attributed by the fair tending to poor body conditions oflivestock. The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestock

from the neighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture inthe grazing fields hence worsening body conditions. Body condition for the shoats was

stable and good as they browsed. However, the conditions could be reversed if the onsetof the long rains is timely.

The livestock body condition for all livestock species in mixed farming livelihood zone isfair tending to poor and further expected to worsen as pasture, fodder and crop residues

are deteriorating in quality, while agro-pastoral and pastoral zones the body condition isalso fair and expected to start decline as pastures quantity and quality deteriorates. The

same is true for pastoral pockets where livestocks are competing for the available

pasture even with wild animals. The situation is normal for this time of the year as the dry weather progresses as we wait

for the long rains season when pasture and forage is usually poor.

2.1.2 Livestock diseases.

Unconfirmed cases of FMD were reported in the pastoral areas of Mukogodo. No majordisease outbreaks were notable in the county apart from the endemic ones at this time ofthe year. Livestock disease incidences across livelihood zones were normal.


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2.1.3 Milk production.

There was notable increase in the amount of milk produced in bottles during the monthunder review, which can be attributed to increased calving in the county. Milk production

increased by 0.04%, consumption increased by 0.04% while sales also recorded anincrease of 0.03%. Milk production in bottles increased from 578 bottles to 601 bottles.

Consumption increased from 261 bottles to 325 bottles. The highest milk production was recorded in Shauri at 142 bottles with a lowest of 2 was

recorded in Endana which could be attributed to migration of livestock from the area dueto water and pasture depletion. All the milk produced Endana, Iligwesi, kimakandura and

Kimanjo was consumed at the house hold level as an alternative source of protein.

2.2 crop production.

2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities.

The major agricultural activities recorded in the county were land preparation andplanting of maize, beans and potatoes especially in the MF and MMF livelihood zones.

Early planted beans and maize were already germinating in areas of Laikipia East and

pockets of Laikipia West owing to the onset of the rains being received by the end of themonth.

Due to time factor (planting season), lack of tractors and laborers, a number of farmersespecially in Laikipia West adopted conservational agriculture which requires minimaltillage or zero tillage.

Crops under irrigation were at different stages but with minimal activities as the waterlevels were also low and further aggravated by abstraction by the upper users.

2.2.2 Pest and diseases.

Owing to the fact that only a few crops are germinating, there was no major crop diseasesand pests reported in the County. Routine disease and pest control is in progress in theMMF and MF areas where horticultural is practiced.

2.2.3. Harvest.

Only a few horticultural crops are being harvested in piecemeal especially in the MMFand MF livelihood zones depending on when they were planted. Such were the tomatoes,onions, carrots and cabbages which are mainly irrigated crops.

2.2.4 Implications on food security

Continuous availability of horticultural crops is positively contributing to the availabilityof dietary diversification at the household level hence improving the nutrition status.

Increase in milk production has impacted positively as an alternative source of proteinwhile increased sales will increase the purchasing power of the farmers.

Access to Food

3.1 livestock market3.1.1 Cattle prices


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Source:NDMA sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds

Comparison of Cattle prices for Shauri and Kimakandura at the household level in March 2013

The sentinel sites recorded an increased average price of cattle by 40% from Kshs14,750.00 to Kshs 20,983.34 which could be attributed to stable body condition.

Compared to the long term average in 2008-2012 of Kshs 12,800.00 for the sameMonth, the current prices are much better.

A highest sale price of Ksh 27,500.00 was recorded in Shauri where crop residues arestill available, proximity to the markets accounting for the good prices while a lowestof Kshs 11,250.00 was recorded in kimakandura which could be attributed to the sizeof the cattle and deteriorating body condition.

3.1.2 Goat prices

Shauri cattle Kshs 27,500.00 Kimakandura cattleKshs 11,250.00


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sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds Goats prices remained stable only recording a marginal decline of 0.01% from Kshs

3,246.8 to Kshs 3,220.05. These can be attributed to their good body condition and

availability of pasture for browsers. The highest goat price was recorded in Kimanjoat Kshs 4,075.00 while a lowest price of Kshs 1,200.00 was recorded at Muruku.Compared to the LTAs of 2008-2011 the present prices are much higher.

Sheep prices remained stable during the month under review though recording a slightdecline of 0.3% from Kshs 3790.8 to Kshs 3,691.62. This could be attributed to good bodycondition brought about by availability of pasture for browsers. The present state can only be

sustained if the long rains are on time to precipitate the regeneration of pasture which isdepleting at a high rate. The present price is much better than the long term average of

Kshs1, 220.00 at the same time of the month. The highest selling price was recorded inWithare at Kshs4, 727.3 while a lowest price of Kshs 2,300.00 was recorded in Muruku.

Poultry recorded increased prices by 0.1% from Kshs 354.93 to Kshs 383.66. The highestselling price of Kshs 451.5 was recorded in Kimanjo while a lowest price of Kshs 300.00 was

recorded in Kimakandura.


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3.2. Livestock sales.

There was a significant increase in the livestock sales in the sentinel sites during themonth under review. 12 cattle were recorded as having been sold in the sentinel sitescompared to last months 4. MMF zones recorded sales of 5, ranching 3, formal

employment 2 while the pastoral areas and MF recorded 1 each. Goat sales also increased during the month under review. A total of 53 goats were

sold compared to 41 the previous month. MMF recorded sales of 23, MF 2, pastoral22, ranching areas 1while no sales were recorded in the formal employment.

Sheep sales also recorded a slight increase from 61 to 69. MMF recorded sales of 29,Pastoral 11, formal employment 7, ranching recorded a sales of 17 and MF a sales of

5. No sale of camel and donkeys was recorded in the month under review. Poultry sales were stable with only a slight increase from 45 to 48. MMF zones

recorded sales of 11, pastoral areas 19, MF zones recorded sales of 10, ranching areas

recorded sales of 3 and formal employment livelihood zones recorded sales of 5.

3.3 crop prices

3.3.1 Maize


Maize prices at the markets were stable during the month at Kshs 35.04 though aslight decline from the previous months Kshs 35.28. Maize prices at the householddecreased by 0.04% from Kshs 24.3 to Kshs 23.19 as farmers withheld their produce

to try and bargain better prices from the traders while others wanted to use them as

seeds. A highest market price of Kshs 50 was recorded in Withare and Kimanjo, which

could be attributed to scarcity of the same in the locality and the markets. A lowest of

Kshs 20 was recorded at Ndurumo.

3.4 Crop prices

3.4.1 Maize

The spillover of the long rains harvest of maize and the additional from the short rainsharvest has generally stabilized the maize prices in the county.


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Maize prices at the farm gate recorded a slight decline of 0.04% from Kshs 24.3 to Kshs23.19 while at the markets they were stable at an average of Kshs 35.04. A highest of

Kshs 25.5 was recorded in Umande while a lowest of Kshs 22.08 was recorded atMuruku.

The present prices are better than the long term averages of 2008-2012 which were atKshs 30.00

3.4.2

Posho


The Posho prices were stable during the month under review only recording a slightdecline of 0.03 % retailing at Kshs 41.14 from Kshs 42.28 the previous month. Thesecould be attributed to the stable maize prices.

A highest of Kshs 52.2 was recorded in Iligwesi (pastoral) which could be attributed tothe cost of transportation due to the poor road network to the area while a lowest of Kshs

30 was recorded in Muruku (MMF) due to availability of alternative foods especially theirrigated crops.

3.5 Income

3.5.1 Crop income

There was a notable decrease in sale of crop products as recorded during the month.These is evident due to lack of the same at the house hold level and also farmerswithholding to utilize them as seeds during the planting season

Income from crops decreased by 50% from 35 to 16. Sales were only recorded in MMFand MF zones. Other livelihoods recorded no income from sales of crops.

3.5.2. Livestock income

Income from livestock sales increased by 0.08% from 50 to 54. A total of 182 species oflivestocks were sold during the month compared to 151 sold during the previous month.


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Income from sale of livestock products remained stable during the month only recordinga slight decline of 0.1% from 26 to 23.

3.5.3 Other income (trade and wages)

Income from Casual labour increased by 20% during the month under review at 136compared to last months 118 persons in the sentinel sites with MMF recording a highest

of 89 as demand for land preparation and planting increased. Though the same activitiesare being undertaken in the MF areas, use of machinery is scaling down those needed for

the same. The number of people under formal employment remained stable with a slight decline

from 51 to 49. With the increase in the number of casual laborers, so did the increase in the daily wage.

The average daily payment for casual laborers increased by 12% from Kshs 208 toKshs232.8. MF recorded the highest payment of Kshs 296 while a lowest of Kshs 182

was recorded in the MMF. This is dictated by the number of hours worked per day. Income from petty trade reduced by 11% as a majority of the persons engaged in planting

activities. Charcoal burning recorded a decline of 15% as most of those involved in the activity

undertook to land preparation and planting.

Main sources of income for the month of March 2013 in Laikipia County.

3.5.4 Cereal: meat price ratio Terms of trade for households were stable during the month under review. There was a

notable increase in the prices of shoats to Kshs 134.7 from Kshs 133.63 the previousmonth. Maize prices and posho had slight variations. Maize and posho only had a slightvariation from Kshs 38.78 to Kshs38.09. Presently the terms of trade for the pastoralists

were on an improving trend. A kilo of meat is able to purchase 3.54kgs of cereal compared to last months 3.45 kg of

cereal. Hence a normal shoat of 15kg costing an average of Kshs 2020.5 compared to lastmonths Kshs 2004.5 can only be able to purchase 53.05kgs compared to last months

51.7kgs of posho.


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Households were selling up to 1.7 shoats of 15kg to purchase a 90 kilograms bag ofposho compared to the 5 year average of 1 shoat across the livelihood zones in Laikipia

county, terms of trade were still below the long term averages but on an improving trend.

4.0Welfare4.1. Nutrition status.

sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds

Improved access and availability to food across all livelihood zones has impactedpositively to the Nutrition status of children less than five years of age. The month

recorded an improved trend of 10% from 5.96 percent during the previous month to5.54% during the month under review.

The number of children measured during the month under review was 1661 which is anincrease from the previous month whereby 1606 children had been measured. The

malnutrition level is better compared to the long term average in 2008-2012 of 9.8percent at the same time of the month. The number of children with


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4.2 Health

There were no reported cases of disease out breaks apart from the common colds and flu,upper respiratory diseases in the county. These are the only observable diseases in thecommunities of which its a common phenomenon at this time of the year.

4.3 Flagged out areas

The flagged out areas are Mukogodo especially in Iligwesi and Doldol due to influx oflivestock and Lamuria especially in Withare due to human wildlife conflicts.

5.0Current intervention measures and coping strategies5.1Construction of 2 No. classrooms at Musul primary school funded by the

MDONK&OAL- awaiting handing over of the cheque to the SMC to start construction.5.2Construction of Mwakinya dam is ongoing which is funded by DMI

5.2 Food aid

There was no general food distribution in the month of March.5.3 Coping strategies

No severe coping strategies have been employed by house holds in the county as terms oftrade are still stable. Some of the strategies being employed include borrowing on credit

casual labor and charcoal burning.

6.0 Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG

Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG

Continued dissemination of weather information and capacity building of communities toprepare appropriately for the March - May 2012 long rains season. The communitiesliving along the valleys, near landslide prone areas and seasonal rivers that are prone to

flash floods to be advised of the risks during this season to avoid disasters. (DSG)

33 children


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Reviewing of the districts disaster preparedness risk reduction/contingency plans to beable to counter any disasters that might be caused by the heavy down pour expected

during the long rains season.(action; DSG, NDMA) Support communities to enhance their water harvesting techniques especially the surface

runoff and roof catchment.(action; DWO) Support to the veterinary department to undertake massive Deworming campaigns of all

livestock in the county.(Action DVO/DLPO) Putting in place intervention measures to curb the human wildlife conflicts especially in

areas of Withare, Muruku and Endana(Action: KWS) Sensitize communities on importance of tree planting during the long rains season.

(action:KFS) Continued supplementary feeding to the under five children and GFD to communities

affected by the dry spell. (Action provincial administration) Support farmers with subsidized fertilizers and seeds for use during the LR planting

season.(action; DAO) Enhanced disease surveillance and vaccination of livestock diseases.(action DLPO) Promotion of good infant and young child feeding and vitamin A supplementation.

(Action DNO).

Water treatment (action MoH).

laikipia march 2013

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