l17 the mobile revolution
TRANSCRIPT
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LECTURE L17THE MOBILE REVOLUTION
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Why is the mobile phone so important to us?
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400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use
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Mobile Phones
7.7 billion connectionshttps://gsmaintelligence.com/
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Mobile Phones
4.6 unique subscribershttps://gsmaintelligence.com/
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There are officially more mobile devices than people in the world
Source and image: The Independent
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There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes
Mobile Phones
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Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years
Image:Nokia
Mobile Phones
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Why is the mobile phone so important to us?
Q1
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Survival
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In 2011, there were 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home
Mobile Phones provide safety
Cisco,January2011
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The History of Communication
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Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of communications
Militaries and business community on the forefront on the development of rapid communication
Communication
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Early 19th century the horse dominated Stage coaches and pony express The railroads changed this Then came electricity
Communication
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TimelineFrom 1820 to 1880 discoveries in radio and electromagnetism
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The Second Industrial RevolutionThe period 1870-1914 Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries Adjacent Possible Growth period
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Electromagnetism and Radio Foundation for electroniccommunications
New markets for communication
Telegraph Telephone Wireless Telegraph
Communication
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The TelegraphFrom the Greek words tele = far and graphein = write (símriti)
Later to be called the “Victorian Internet”
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Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals
At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing the signal
The Telegraph
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The TelegraphSamuel F. B. Morse invented the first practical telegraph in 1837
Granted a patent 1838
Moore devised a telegraphic code consistingof dots and dashes
Shorter and longer electric impulse send down the wire - The Morse Code
Standardized messages
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The TelephoneInvented in 1876 At the time, the telegraph was dominant Transferred sound waves with electric current over wire
Alexander G. Bell Created the first practical telephone
Based on experiments and improvements in technology at the time
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The TelephoneBell was working on the harmonic telegraph
A device that could send more then one telegraph message at the same time
Worked with skilled machinist named Thomas A. Watson
Joseph Henry encouraged him in 1875 to work on the telephone instead of the harmonic telegraph
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The telephone was based on variable resistance (breytilegu viðnámi)
The Telephone
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The Importance of Patents
Bell filed a notice for a patent Feb. 14, 1876 “The most valuable patent ever issued” Elisha Gray also filed a patent that same day
The Patent Mystery It is still a mystery what happened that day Did Bell see Gray’s patent and update his? Over 600 legal battles would challenge the patent
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Commercial Development
Bell had difficulty convincing contemporaries of the usefulness of the telephone - the telegraph prevailed
Difficult to get investment
Bell offered the patent to Western Union for $100.000 which they declined
Bell continued and slowly telephonesstarted to replace telegraphs
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The Bell Company
In 1877 Bell and his backers formed the first Bell Company
Business model: Bell Company leased telephones and licensed franchises instead of selling them
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The Battle with Western UnionBell sued Western Union for patent infringements and settled in 1879
Bell agreed not to go into the telegraph market, and Western Union agreed not to go into the telephone market
Bell would buy Western Union’s telephone network with 50.000 subscribers in 50 cities and pay a license
Stock in Bell’s company rose from $50 to $500 in 1879
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History
At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication were dominant
The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War (1861-65), dominated by Western Union
The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell
Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based
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Wireless Telegraph
Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunityin wireless communication
Studied physics at the Universityof Bologna
Several experiments in 1894 inBologna, Italy
Marconi’s goal was to use hisknowledge developed in telephony
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The Product
Marconi was improving the telegraph
“Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code
Potential market: Maritime market – British Royal Navy Transatlantic communication
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Skepticism and CompetitionMany scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s inventions
Doubts that wireless had any application Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency Security – anyone could listen in The telegraph was initially 20 times faster
Cable companies showed no interest in wireless
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The Wireless Telegraph BubbleWireless Telegraph was popular in the press
Many companies competed for stock funding
Resulted in Stock inflations - “The Wireless Telegraph bubble”
Sceptic voices started to respond
Series of articles in Success Magazine, “Fools and their money” appeared 1907
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Government RegulationNo regulations controlled the airwaves
The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set international standards of communication The Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D”
C.Q. meant attention, D was for Distress SOS is ... - - - ...
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Wireless CommunicationAround 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established
It was not until the development of microchips and technology for building devices, that wireless communication became practical for individuals
Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress
Also investments in land based systems
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Wireless Communication
Wireless communication started early 20th century
Wireless radio was important in WWII Many innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping
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Hedwig Eva Maria Kiesler 1913-2000
"Films have a certain place in a certain time period. Technology is
forever” - Hedy Lamarr
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Wireless CommunicationAfter the war, use of wireless was restricted to certain profession (police, military, taxis)
Not public solutions
The ideas for mobile radio networks were developed in the 1940s Area of radio cells – Cellular network
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Wireless technology and the idea of building a network of cells was understood in 1940s. Why did the public mobile phone not appear until in the late 1970s, early 80s?
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Adjacent Possible
TECHNICAL
BigLimitedExpensive
CULTURAL
PoliticalCommercial
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The Digital RevolutionThe enabling technologies - adjacent possible
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Early Systems
The First Cell phone (1973) Name:MotorolaDyna-TacSize:9x5x1.75inches Weight:2.5pounds Display:None NumberofCircuitBoards:30Talktime:35minutes RechargeTime:10hours Features:Talk,listen,dial
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Microchip
Digital Signal Processor
Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s
Technical Improvements
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Cellular NetworksRadio network made up of radio cells
Tower and base
Mobile Telephone Switching Office MTSO
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Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones
▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s
due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible
▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones
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1G Analog
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1G Analog1980s Voice only NMT, AMPS, FDMA
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Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries
First international system was NMT in the Nordic
Frequency Division Multiple Access - FDMA
1G Analog
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NMT in Nordics AMPS in the US TACS in UK C-Nets in West Germany Radiocom 2000 in France RTMI/RTMS in Italy
1G Analog
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Big Expensive Limited
CharacteristicsBusiness users Field users
MobiraTalkman fráNokia
1G AnalogEarly users
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Multiple standards – roaming is a problem
In the US this is not a problem
1G Analog
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European countries decide to define common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) starts 1982
1G Analog
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2G Digital
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1990s Voice and data 9.6 – 14.4 Kbps GSM, TDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.
2G Digital
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Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s
GMS takes off in 1991 – unites Europe
Time Division Multiple Access – TDMA
2G Digital
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US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well
Digital did not add enough over analog
Texting and SIM cards was not known
2G Digital
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GMS
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Global System for Mobile Communication
Built on TDMA – Digital
Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards
GMS
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TextingShort Message System allowed 160 letters
Became an accidental killer app – messages, chat, ring tones
First message sent 03.12.1992: “Merry Christmas”
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Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones▪ Cars became the first platform for phones▪ First phones are analog▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its own– Problem with standards (history repeats itself?)▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a standard▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2▪ US does not have roaming problems and gets
stuck in G1
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3G Packet Switch
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Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge
1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice
The Internet is packet-switched
3G Packet Switching
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2000s More data 128+ Kbps GPSR, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA
Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 11 sec. – 1,5 min.
3G Packet Switching
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More bandwidth, more applications
Email, Images, music, movies, streaming
Based on Code DivisionMultiple Access – CDMA
3G Packet Switching
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3G Solutions
Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)
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Built with limitations
Screen size, bandwidth restrictions Input limited – one-handed keyboard Limited memory, battery life
Fragmentation nightmare
Mobile web was limited, bad version of the web
3G Solutions
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Then, in 2007, the world changed
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Copyright©2011,ÓlafurAndriRagnarsson
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How does the competitionrespond?
The Arrogance of the Present
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iPhone hit the market in June 2007
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Ok, let’s check the facts five years later
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http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2
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Copyright©2011,ÓlafurAndriRagnarsson
The iPhone Effect
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Touch screen
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Industrial strengthdesktop quality OS
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Software and Userinterface
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Platform for Apps
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100 billion apps downloaded (2015)
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App market revenue is estimated to hit $77 billion by 2017
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Smartphone Market
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Smartphone Market
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Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck
Smartphone Market
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iPhone
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The end of the Unconnected
Source: http://ben-evans.com/
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2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020
X
Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payments SocialEasier to use
= HUGEOPPERTUNITY
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App vs. Web Development
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The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod
Google Play is the same
Availability
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Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation
Context
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Mobile media users pick up their phone 40 times a day to consume content via apps/browser
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Key TrendsMobile became
important in 2010 and will be a revenue
opportunity going forward
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Source:MorganStanley
Mobile vs. Desktop
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Source:MorganStanley
Mobile vs. Desktop
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Any consumerbusiness that ignores the smartphone, will
likely become irrelevant
Source: Heavy Reading
Smartphones
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Source: Skynews
SmartphonesHow long does it take to download a HD movie
3G - 1 hour4G - 40 seconds5G - 1 second
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Solutions
Voice, text Apps, music, videos,
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Worldwide tablet sales grew by more than 400% over a two-
year period, reaching 81.3 million units in 2012.
Tablets
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The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only
one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of
screen sizes
Source:TheNextBigThing:Mobile,http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408
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Next: The Internet of Things