kudu power project power... · support from the namibian government in terms of guarantees to...
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KUDU POWER PROJECT
“NAMIBIA’S FLAG SHIP POWER GENERATION PROJECT”
19 SEPTEMBER 2014
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Background
Kudu Gas Field was discovered in 1973 by Chevron,
The first attempt to commercialize the Kudu gas resource for
power generation was mooted shortly after independence.
A tripartite agreement between NamPower, Eskom and Shell
Exploration & Production Namibia (SEPN) was signed in 1997 to
develop a 750MW power station outside Oranjemund,
The project has since underwent several structural development
changes and faced several delays mainly due to the complexity
of this project.
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Power Station developers/partners:
NamPower 51%
CEC Africa 30%
Other Equity Partner: 19% (still to be selected)
Location of power plant: Uubvlei (25km north of Oranjemund)
Technology: CCGT
Power Output: 800MW (nominal)
Main Off-taker: NamPower
Secondary off-takers: Zambia & South Africa
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Upstream
Namcor (54%)
Tullow Oil (31%)
ITOCHU (15%)
Downstream
800 MW CCGT Power
Station
KuduPower (Pty) Ltd
(NamPower + Partners)
Gas
Sales/Supply
Agreement
Power Purchase
Agreements
NamPower
Domestic supply
Power Export
Agreements
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Project infrastructure scheme
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PROJECT COMMERCIAL STRUCTURE
4
Kudu Project Commercial Arrangements
NamPower& other
equity partnersLenders
Shareholders A
greement
Financing A
greements
O&
MA
greement
Operations and Maintenance
Company
OEM & EPC Contractor
EPC & LTSA
Contract
Gas Sales/Supply Agreement
UpstreamParties
KuduPower NamPower
Power PurchaseAgreement
Regional Buyers
Power Export
Agreem
ent
Transmission Agreement(s)
Power to Namibia
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KUDU REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
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REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
o Kudu tariff (2013 estimates) of US$0.10 – 0.13c/kWh is still
competitive with any regional new build coming on-stream
by 2016 - 2018,
o CCGT technology is environmentally clean compared to
several planned regional new built that are largely coal-
based,
o It will possibly be the first CCGT power station of this size in
the region,
o The economic spin-offs of Kudu is greater in terms of its
impact on the monetization of the gas resource in the region
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9
Indicative Regional Perspective of Pricing Trends
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
US
D c
en
ts/
kW
h
Average Electricity Price
2006
2007
2008
Forecast of Industrial Tariffs (2010 - 2020)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year
US
c p
er k
Wh
RSA
Zambia
• Low Tariffs but rising to
cost reflectivity
• Annual increases of 20-
30%
• Driven by new
investments needed to
meet growing demand
Source Copperbelt Energy Corporation: 2011
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LATEST PROJECT UPDATE
(AS AT SEPTEMBER 2014)
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JOINT DEVELOPMENT AGREEMENT (JDA)
o NamPower signed a JDA with CEC Africa in February 2014,
o A JDA Steering Committee consisting of NamPower, CEC
Africa and KuduPower has been established.
o KuduPower Board composition is being finalized,
o The third additional equity partner also expected to sign the
JDA, and will nominate its representatives to sit on the
Steering Committee.
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UPDATE ON POWER EXPORT AGREEMENTS
Power Export Agreements (PXA) negotiations:
Negotiations with CEC Plc:
PXA Termsheet with CEC Plc signed in February 2014,
Full PXA negotiations expected to commence in due course,
CEC Plc committed to off-take about 300MW denominated
in US$
Negotiations with Eskom
Eskom has been offered 100 - 300MW (denominated in
Rands with hedging). Full negotiations have not yet
commenced.
Transmission interconnection discussions between
NamPower and Eskom are quite advanced.
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UPDATE ON KUDU TENDERS:
Tender evaluation process:
o EPC - preferred contractor selected
o MLA - preferred bank selected
o Strategic Equity Partner- tender evaluation completed
o Operation & Maintenance- tender evaluation completed
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KUDU PROJECT RISKS
Kudu Power Station
Fuel Transmission
Construction O&M
Demand
Forex
Force Majeure
Regulation
• +/- 0.2 B USD
required
• Substantial GRN
support required
• Supply
• Long term commitment
• Delays
• Costs
• Disasters
• Strikes
• GRN action
• New taxes • Frequency
• Time
• Costs
• Volatility
• Trend
• Demand
• Exports:
• Volume
• Price
• Delay
• Availability
• Cost reflectivity
• PPA pass through
Debt
NP Equity
Minority Equity
Financial
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slide 15
MAJOR PROJECT RISKS
The following are the major risks that have been identified:
Foreign exchange exposure
Construction time delays and costs
NamPower’s export agreements for surplus power from
Kudu
Gas price
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THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
NamPower's experience (along with other utilities in the
region) is that major power projects are unlikely to move
quickly without a substantial commitment from
governments.
The Kudu Gas to Power Project is a complex and big project
which its commercial viability also depends largely on
support from the Namibian Government in terms of
guarantees to Namcor and NamPower in particular as lead
developers.
In the absence of the project receiving timely Government
guarantees, the project is most likely to be further delayed.
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Political stability let to higher economic growth and
subsequently an increase in electricity demand,
Namibia is still largely dependent on imports,
Security of power supply still at risk,
Surplus generation capacity in the region on the decline,
There is considerable peak power demand challenges in the
region,
Transmission congestion for imports still a huge challenge
Monetising the stranded Kudu gas field will unlock &
stimulate further oil & gas exploration.
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It will provide secure and adequate generation supply,
It will diversify Namibia’s energy mix,
It will reduce the over dependence on imports,
It will make Namibia to be a net exporter of electricity,
It is one of the most efficient non-renewable electricity
generation option,
It is environmental friendly with lower carbon emissions,
It could generate carbon credit revenue
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DIRECT & INDIRECT IMPACT FOR LUDERITZ & ORANJEMUND
There are several socio-economic benefits:
• Employment
• Housing/accommodation
• Infrastructure expansion & upgrade (e.g. roads)
• Increased utilization of harbour facilities at Lüderitz
• Secondary industries that will benefit:
Tourism
Cleaning services, Catering, Trade, Transportation,
Maintenance, etc.
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INDICATIVE PROJECT TIMELINES
o Conclusion of all agreements Nov 2014
o Financial Close: 1st quarter 2015
o Commencement of construction: 1st quarter of 2015
o Commercial Operations Date (COD): 1st quarter 2018
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For more info contact:
The Kudu Project Office
Tel. +264-61-205 2221
Tel. +264-61-205 2214
Fax: +264-61-205 9221
E-mail: [email protected]
For attention: Mr. S. Muyenga-Muyenga
Project Coordinator: Stakeholder Management & Project Promotion
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.nampower.com.na