Kudrin EgorKudrin EgorThe Urals A.M. Gorky State University, The Urals A.M. Gorky State University,

EkaterinburgEkaterinburg

““ROGUE STATES” IN THE SYSTEM OF ROGUE STATES” IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: SYRIA AND WEPON OF MASS SYRIA AND WEPON OF MASS

DESTRUCTIONDESTRUCTION

International Situation of Syria International Situation of Syria within the frame of WMDwithin the frame of WMD

««Syria presents a Syria presents a significant country of our significant country of our concernconcern»»

Secretary of StateSecretary of StateC. PowellC. Powell

««state-sponsor of terrorismstate-sponsor of terrorism»»

WMD programsWMD programs

Geopolitical situation, and factor in the Geopolitical situation, and factor in the

frame of WMD programsframe of WMD programs political contradictions political contradictions with Israel practically with Israel practically since the first years of since the first years of its existenceits existence

water resourceswater resources

““updated” geopolitical updated” geopolitical situation in the region situation in the region after Saddam’s regime after Saddam’s regime collapsecollapse

Role of the WMD factor in the Asads’ political courseRole of the WMD factor in the Asads’ political course priority:priority: “fight for the Middle East”, mainly, in opposition with “fight for the Middle East”, mainly, in opposition with IsraelIsrael short-and long-term objective:short-and long-term objective: “strategic parity”“strategic parity” mmechanisms:echanisms:

Technical-scientific potential mobilizationTechnical-scientific potential mobilization;; Research Centre in Damascus (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Research Centre in Damascus (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches

Scientifiques - CERS)Scientifiques - CERS)

Hafez al-AsadHafez al-Asad(1971-2000)(1971-2000)

priority:priority: modernization of Syriamodernization of Syria

short-and long-term objective:short-and long-term objective: maintenance of internal interestsmaintenance of internal interests

mechanisms: mechanisms: flexible political courseflexible political course

Bashir al-AsadBashir al-Asad

Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation

RegimesRegimes

Nuclear WeaponNuclear WeaponSyria does not possess the nuclear weapon or sufficient Syria does not possess the nuclear weapon or sufficient infrastructure for development in this areainfrastructure for development in this area

Chemical WeaponChemical WeaponSyria possesses the most significant arsenal of warfare Syria possesses the most significant arsenal of warfare agents agents (including mustard gas, sarin, and other) in the (including mustard gas, sarin, and other) in the Middle East Middle East and continues the further studies to and continues the further studies to

achieve more achieve more “efficient” “efficient” binary weapon (VX-gases).binary weapon (VX-gases). Biological weaponBiological weapon

There is not any data on working out or stockpiling of There is not any data on working out or stockpiling of biological biological agents.agents.

Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation

RegimesRegimes Status of Syria in the Essential Non-Status of Syria in the Essential Non-

proliferation Regimesproliferation Regimes SYRIASYRIA

Syrian Arabic RepublicSyrian Arabic Republic

International Atomic Energy AgencyInternational Atomic Energy Agency June June 66,, 1963 1963

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of

Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons (NTI)(NTI)

July July 11,, 1968 1968Ratified on September Ratified on September 2424,, 1969 1969

Additional protocolAdditional protocol May May 1818,, 1992 1992

CWCCWC Syria denied to sign and ratify CWCSyria denied to sign and ratify CWC

BWCBWC Signed on AprilSigned on April 14 14,, 1972 1972Not ratifiedNot ratified

““Syrian Los Alamos”Syrian Los Alamos”

IAEA does not possess any information IAEA does not possess any information on the Syrian Nuclear program which on the Syrian Nuclear program which would concern would concern

IAEA General DirectorIAEA General DirectorElBaradeyElBaradey

BECAUSE OFBECAUSE OF- lack of competent specialists, - lack of competent specialists, infrastructure and technical basis, infrastructure and technical basis, financial resourcesfinancial resources

- stiffening of Control Regimes of Non-- stiffening of Control Regimes of Non-Proliferation Proliferation

- territorial compactness of the region - territorial compactness of the region and meteorological particularityand meteorological particularity

Chemical and biological weaponChemical and biological weapon

According to some experts Syria According to some experts Syria possesses the most developed and the possesses the most developed and the most advanced program of the chemical most advanced program of the chemical weapon produce, in the Middle East. weapon produce, in the Middle East.

Regarding to estimation of the Centre for Regarding to estimation of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the Strategic and International Studies, the total volume of warfare agents works out total volume of warfare agents works out 500-1000 metric ton. 500-1000 metric ton.

The annual Syrian expenditures on The annual Syrian expenditures on realization of the program in the field of realization of the program in the field of chemical weapon and delivery systems chemical weapon and delivery systems varies from $ 1 to 2 billion.varies from $ 1 to 2 billion.

Saddam’s WMD is in Syria…?Saddam’s WMD is in Syria…?

In December 2002 Israeli prime In December 2002 Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon in his minister Ariel Sharon in his interview had declared that interview had declared that “disposes of information on “disposes of information on transfer of chemical and transfer of chemical and biological weapon from Iraq biological weapon from Iraq Syria”Syria”

It is considered…It is considered…

Syria indeed does not possess Syria indeed does not possess any type of WMD since it was any type of WMD since it was transported into Sudan. The transported into Sudan. The Western Intelligence services Western Intelligence services have revealed that in January have revealed that in January 2004 delivery systems “Scud 2004 delivery systems “Scud C” and “Scud D”, either as the C” and “Scud D”, either as the WMD components were WMD components were transported on civil plane, but transported on civil plane, but under the direct control of under the direct control of Ministry of defense on military Ministry of defense on military basis Hartum in Sudan.basis Hartum in Sudan.

The president of Sudan Omar Bashir was not The president of Sudan Omar Bashir was not informed about the delivery of Syrian WMDinformed about the delivery of Syrian WMD