kj poppe cee agriculture 60 years aki
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given in Budapest, October 7 2014, on CEE agriculture at the conference organised by AKI at its 60th anniversary.TRANSCRIPT
One Decade of EU Membership: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead One Decade of EU Membership: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead forfor the Agro-Food Sector in Central and Eastern European Economiesthe Agro-Food Sector in Central and Eastern European Economies
AKI 60th Anniversary ConferenceAKI 60th Anniversary Conference
Budapest, 7 October 2014Budapest, 7 October 2014
The future of the agro-food sector in CEE economies
Krijn J. Poppe - LEI Wageningen UR
My introduction
Economist and Research Manager at LEI Wageningen UR
My links with Hungary and AKI:• First visit in 1992: Dutch project on private farms in Hungary• 2000/01 - Helping AKI to create the FADN and other information systems• Currently collaborating in the work of the SCAR strategic working group AKIS and in the EU project FLINT on sustainability data in the FADN
Congratulations !
Content
• Characteristics of agri-food in CEE
• New technologies: ICT
• Can value be added, e.g. by meat production based on cereals
• What does this mean for the future CAP ?
• And for research institutes like AKI ?
Characteristics agro-food in CEE
• Very large, efficient farms (buying even bigger machines), and many small farmers and ‘farmers’ (struggling to be included).– Due to history:
• Yes/no land reform before 1940• Choices made in the transition after 1989
• Food industry often not competitive for western-European retailers
• CEE: a big commodity producer with subsistence farming around.
Concentration in production in some European
countries. Source: FADN
Strong ICT Trends
• Satellite and (remote) sensing technology, geo-informatics• Sensor technology, robotica in tractors and machines;
computer vision; • Bio-sensors and bio-informatics• Internet of Things: ‘everything’ gets an IP-address• Cloud computing: service delivery via (broadband)
infrastructures• Smart phones and tablets with data ‘in the cloud’• Social media (Facebook, Twitter, Wiki, etc.)• Web of data, Linked Open Data, Big Data • E-knowledge, E-science
App store
Smart Farming in the Cloud
Services
sensorsactuators
data sources(‘Internet of Things’)
LocalFMS
Spraying Advisory Services
Meteorological Service
State and Policy Information Service FMIS
E-agriculturist Service for spraying potatoes
FI-Ware enabled Cloud Platform
Machine Breakdown Service
User’s devices
Other sources
CloudFMS
Data exchange by ABCDEF’s
• Large organisations mostly have gone digital, with ERP and other systems
• But between organisations (and especially with SME) data transfer and information exchange is often on paper
• While more data exchange to monitor business processes in the chain would be welcome
There is a need for ABCDEF’s:Agri-Business Collaboration and Data Exchange Facility
FIspace is such a collaboration facility, built in the FI-PPP
How more data contributes to current business models
Transport
loyaltySmall Cost priceGRIN
Transport Transport
Input industriesFarmer Food processor Retail / consumerSoftware
Provider
Logistics solution providers
Service cope with retail
Sustainability HealthFood SafetyFeed the growing world
Precision Farming: better control
Better management decision
SophisticatedTechnology,More advise
Segment products and
input suppliers;Benchmark with
competitors
Consumer decision support (pre- and after
sales)
Better service concepts, e.g. in store replenishment
Development pig industry EU-15 versus EU-12N [2001= 100 (production); 2005 =100 (breeding)]
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f
Production EU-15 Production EU-12N Production EU-27
Breeding herd EU-15 Breeding herd EU-12N Breeding herd EU-27
Source: GIRA
Relocating pig production?
LabourFeed Meat
?
Decreasing pig production in CEE
• Bad structure of primary pig industry: a lot of backyard production especially in Romania;
• Lack of good infrastructure: genetics, feed, veterinarians, equipment, traders, transport, slaughterhouses, processing industry;
• Continuous increasing demand regarding quality, hygiene standards, labelling, endemic diseases and contagious diseases from government and retail;
However...• Good external circumstances for pig fatting
in Central Eastern Europe;
• Pig meat is a highly competing and saturated market in EU;
• There are barriers to expand in Central Eastern Europe (finance, knowledge, chain cooperation).
• With Western management and equipment competing cost prices can be realised.
Average share direct farm payments in Net Value Added. Farms with direct farm payments, 2009-2011. Source:
FADN
Expectations CAP after 2020
• Further conversion of farm payments on a hectare base over Europe• More greening• Part of the money goes to land owners • More and more questions will be raised on the need to pay big farms
big amounts of money.
ALTERNATIVE:• Fixed budget for income support and restructuring
– Focus on small farms
• Fixed budget for risk and innovation management– Focus on large farms
Restructuring fund needed to support income towards
level of national minimum income.
Y-axis gives family income from agriculture. X-axis gives percentage of farms. Bleu line is family income. Black line is minimum income. Red area gives necessary budget
Distribution of budget over restructuring and
risk and innovation managementBudget (*mio €)
Pillar II Pillar I % Pillar I
Total Total Restructuring Risk fund Restructuring Risk fund
Czech Republic 306 873 42 831 5 95
Denmark 90 880 189 692 21 79
Germany 1.169 5.018 1.284 3.735 26 74
Greece 598 1.947 1.064 883 55 45
Spain 1.182 4.893 1.096 3.798 22 78
France 1.428 7.437 1.459 5.978 20 80
Hungary 491 1.269 221 1.048 17 83
Ireland 312 1.211 774 438 64 36
Italy 1.500 3.704 2.193 1.511 59 41
Netherlands 86 732 441 291 60 40
Austria 567 692 630 62 91 9
Poland 1.556 3.062 1.397 1.664 46 54
Portugal 582 599 241 359 40 60
UK 366 3.592 285 3.307 8 92
Remaining countries 3.056 6.539 2.545 3.994 39 61
EU27 13.289 42.450 13.859 28.591 33 67
Distribution Pillar I budget over restructuring and risk. Per ha. Average EU27
EU27 USPillar I (€/ha) 228 Restructuring/Income goal (€/ha) 74Risk premium (€/ha) 153 50Production value (€/ha) *) 2.500 653Risk premium (% production value) 6,1 7,6*) Average production value per ha UAA in 2020 in EU27, CAPRI baseline; Average production value corn in the US in 2011
Alternative CAP
• Within Pillar I it is possible to allocate budget specific for risk management on large farms and social security / restructuring on small farms
• Taking into account normal standard of living (assuring minimum income) in agriculture results in a budget distribution of 2/3 risk management and 1/3 social security
• Further research and underpinning is necessary
The future of AKI
• Is in doing this type of policy research• As agri-food becomes more and more a
business, sustainability is a licence to produce and sell, not a source of additional income.
• FADN will help to check sustainability (we’re happy to collaborate in the FLINT project)
• Public-private partnerships will become more common with the agri-food industry
The future of AKI
• Is more and more in European consortia: ERAnets and JPI pool national funds
• New issues will arise in new policy areas like:– the biobased economy– rural poverty– the relation between food and health.– food and geo-politics
Thanks for your
attention
Slides will be available on Slideshare