kj poppe for young farmers dg agri
TRANSCRIPT
New generation technologies in agriculture and food: overview and perspectives
Krijn Poppe LEI Wageningen URDG AGRI, Milan, September 2015
4 (disruptive?) technologies : GRIN
Genetics
Robotics
Informatics
Nano-technology
Dreams (?) of the futurists:
Self-driving tractors Medicine based on nano-technologies Animals monitored with sensors like sport athletes Weather modification Biorefinery based on synthetic biology Urban farming with fully closed small glasshouses and
LED technology for vegetables Food printing Online short supply chains replace supermarkets Artificial meat
Back to the Future
tijd
Mate van verspreidingvan technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgendegolf
Uitrol periodeDraai-punt
INDRINGER
EXTASE
SYNERGIE
RIJPHEID
Door-braak
WerkeloosheidStilstand oude bedrijfstakken
Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek
Financiele bubbleOnevenwichtighedenPolarisatie arm en rijk
Gouden eeuwCoherente groei
Toenemende externalities
Techniek bereikt grenzenMarktverzadiging
Teleurstelling en gemakzucht
Institutionele innovatie
Naar Perez, 2002
Crash20081929189318471797
time
Degree of diffusion of thetechnological revoluton
Installation period
Nextwave
Deploymentperiod
Turningpoint
IRRUPTION
FRENZY
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang
UnemploymentDecline of old industries
Capital searches new techniques
Financial bubbleDecoupling in the systemPolarisation poor and rich
Golden ageCoherent growth
Increasing externalities
Last products & industriesMarket saturationDisappointment vs
complacency
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
Institutional
innovation
Based on Perez, 2002
The opportunity for green growth
1971 chip ICT1908 car, oil, mass production1875 steel1829 steam, railways1771 water, textiles
Disruptive ICT Trends:
Mobile/Cloud Computing – smart phones, wearables, incl. sensors
Internet of Things – everything gets connected in the internet (virtualisation, M2M, autonomous devices)
Location-based monitoring - satellite and remote sensing technology, geo information, drones, etc.
Social media - Facebook, Twitter, Wiki, etc.
Big Data - Web of Data, Linked Open Data
High Potential for unprecedented innovations!
everywhere
anything
anywhere
everybody
Which innovations and new business models are possible ?
Precision Farming/Advice Segment Cons. supportService ++
• Prescriptive farming• Predictive maintenance• Eco-systems of apps• Regionally pooled big data
analysis for science and advise (and risk mgt.)
• Personalized advise by apps
• Online shops
• Integrated supply chains• Feedback consumer-producer
• Measure, pay sustainability
• Better T&T
• Paperless chain• Store
replenishment• Category
management
Sustainability HealthFood SafetyFood Security
LoyaltySMEs Cost priceGRIN Cope with retail
Transport
Input industriesFarmer Food processor Retail / consumerSoftware
Provider
Logistic solution providers
Transport+
Collaboration and Data Exchange is needed!
Data exchange by ABCDEFs
Large organisations mostly have gone digital, with ERP and other systems
But between organisations (especially with SMEs) data exchange and interoperability is still very poor
While more data exchange for collaboration and business process control in the chain is needed
●As data need to be combined to create value ●The better we exchange data, the less disruptive it is
for current business models and organisationsThere is a need for ABCDEFs: Agri-Business Collaboration & Data Exchange Facility
Proprietary/closed or open ABCDEFs?
|9
John Deere FarmSight™:An Ecosystem for Decision Support Partners
• AgConnections• AgIntegrated• AgLeader• AgJunction• Delta Data Systems• DN2K •GEOSYS • PCT• GeekTech for Ag• Mapshots • Pioneer• Satshot• SST• ZedX• LDE (Germany)• Farmmade (UK)• Neotic Maferme (France)• DAAS (Denmark)• AgroVision (Netherlands/Belgium)• Technofarming (Italy)
Numerous Software Partners
Bottom Line: John Deere’s comprehensive ecosystem of innovative partners will drive customer value and improved decisions
Source: Charles Donahue at Smart AgriMatics, Paris 18 June, 2014
|10
John Deere FarmSight™:An Ecosystem for Decision Support Partners
• AgConnections• AgIntegrated• AgLeader• AgJunction• Delta Data Systems• DN2K •GEOSYS • PCT• GeekTech for Ag• Mapshots • Pioneer• Satshot• SST• ZedX• LDE (Germany)• Farmmade (UK)• Neotic Maferme (France)• DAAS (Denmark)• AgroVision (Netherlands/Belgium)• Technofarming (Italy)
Numerous Software Partners
Bottom Line: John Deere’s comprehensive ecosystem of innovative partners will drive customer value and improved decisions
Source: Charles Donahue at Smart AgriMatics, Paris 18 June, 2014
Is this‘mono-equipment system’ reality?
How to cope with changes in industry
boundries?
How many platforms should
users and developers enter?
Agri-Food Supply Chain Networks are multi-dimensional
• Markets allocate products to different destinations
• Chains are supported by many service providers
• Intensive data-exchange with governments
law & regulation
innovation
geographic cluster
horizontal fulfillment
Vertical
The battleground in the USA
12
Code of Conduct
• Who has access to my data?• Do they gain market power
on future markets ?• Is there a lock inn ?• Do I become a franchiser
with the risks and not the returns?
Big Data for Smart Food and Health Services
Life style
Health
Food
13
2 Scenarios, with significant impacts ?
1. Scenario FIELDSCRIPT: ● Farmer becomes part of one integrated supply chain as a
franchiser/contractor with limited freedom ● one platform for potato breeder, machinery company, chemical
company, farmers and french fries processor.● Weak integration with service providers, government ?2. Scenario OPEN COLLABORATION:
• Market for services, apps and data• Common, open platform(s) are needed• Higher upfront, common investment ??• Business model of such a platform more difficult?• More empowerment of farmers and cooperatives?
F
F
Programmability: Low HighAsset specifity: Low High Low
HighContribution partnersseparableHigh spot long-t. spot
jointmarket contract mrkt
venture
Low coope- coop./ insidevertical
rationvertical contractowner-
© Boehlje ownershipship
Organisational arrangements in the food chain are changing
Chain organisation changes (©Gereffi et al., 2005)
inpu
ts
E
nd p
rodu
ct
PRICE
Shops Complete IntegrationLead
companyLead
company
Turnkey supplier
Relationalsupplier
Market Modular Relational Captive Hierarchy
Low Degree of explicit coordination and power asymmetry High
Leadcompany
Farmers
Development of farm system
Value added/ ha
Time
Agricultural family FIRM
Family FARM
Plantationlatifundia,kolchoze
Subsis-tence farm
Ag.policy
AKIS.gov
AgriFood Networks
3rd gen. uni
Market integration
Chain integration
Urban farm
Hobby-farm
Metropolitan agriculture
3 Scenario’s to explore the future HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by
multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality. Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.
Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT technologies with disruptive business models lead to self-organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains, multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak, regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions, depending on endowments.
Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and European integration. Regional and local communities look for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on science in China, India, Brazil.
This all raises important questions:
For (young) farmers:●How can you benefit from these developments?●Did you stress-test your plans on these trends ?
For policy makers and farmers: what does this means for policies:
●Innovation policy: what to promote and how?●Environmental policy: can it benefit from precision
farming?●Competition policy: look to data platforms?●CAP: address future challenges or stay with old
paradigms?
