kína tækifæri í austri magnús bjarnason
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Kína tækifæri í austri Magnús Bjarnason. Iceland generates higher export revenue per capita from fisheries than any other independent country in the world, it is a key strategic goal to establish a solid infrastructure for export from Iceland to China. Contributed 11 per cent of GDP - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Kína tækifæri í austri
Magnús Bjarnason
Iceland generates higher export revenue per capita from fisheries than any other independent country in the world, it is a key strategic goal to establish a solid infrastructure for export from Iceland to China.
Source: McKinsey Iceland Report 2012
• Contributed 11 per cent of GDP
• Generated more than ¼ of all export
revenues
• Directly employes over 9,000 people
2
Global footprint with € 600m in sales
Key global drivers
Major global followers
Less connected states
USA: Icelandic brand plus new business
developements
Europe: UK, Bene-Lux, Spain, France &
Italy
Asia: China & Japan
Source: Bain MTG Analysis, October 2011
Icelandic China
• Based in Qingdao 15 people in sales and administration and 90 people in our newly opened factory
• BRC approved and technical expertise required to offer service to retailers and foodservice customers in the UK & Asia
• Icelandic sells 8,000 mt of fish products 2012 / 2013 into the Chinese market , 80% sold in bulk (containers), 20% in pallets (boxes) – € 25m in sales
• Icelandic plans to grow on the back of the new FTA providing superior seafood products to the Chinese market and create a unique access for producers in Iceland to the fast growing Chinese market
4
40
0
110
25
60
100
75
9990
Cod WholeCapelin
CapelinRoe
Icelandic China Business
(%)
• Red Fish (Hong Yu 红鱼 )
• Norwegian Mackerel (Nuo Wei Hai Yu 挪威海鱼 )
• Greenland Halibut (Bimuyu 比目鱼 )
• Capelin (Duochunyu 多春鱼 )
• Cod (Zhenxueyu 真鳕鱼 )
• Haddock (Heixianyu 黑线鱼 )
• Herring
• Large Halibut– Heads – Tails– Body
• Small Halibut– Sold to Chinese
restaurants
• Mackerel– US$2.5-US$3kg– Sold to small processors– Japanese Restaurants
• Capelin– Roe sold to small
processors and Japanese restaurants
– Whole sold to wholesale
100 100 100 100
Domestic
Re-Export
10,000 10,000 15,000 600(tons)
Iceland Import for Re-Process : Major Species
Iceland Import for Domestic Distribution : Major Species
Mackerel Halibut
100
6,000
The Icelandic China business today is Mackerel, Greenland Halibut and Capelin
95180
350
600
5
20
50
100
2005 2010 2015 2020
China Consuming Class(millions people)
700
5k-12k
10012k+
Source: InterChina
400
Consumption is being driven by increasing numbers of middle class consumers
200
15
22
13
CAGR(%)
Consuming class = Per capital US$5k plus at 2005 values
This is largely driven by urbanization … 20 million new urban residents every year
Source: China City Planning & Design Institute.
20
20
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
45%
50%
60%
Urban residents(Million people)
Urbanization rate(%)
55%
40%
51%690m
56%790m
For the first time, there are more people residing in the cities
China Urbanization: 2009-2020
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CAGR: 14%
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 18%
CAGR: 19%
Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)
CAGR: 15%
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 19%
CAGR: 17%
Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)
Source: China Statistical Yearbook. Source: China Statistical Yearbook.
YOY: 16%
YOY: 18%
YOY: 13%
YOY: 18%
T2+T3 Cities
T1 Cities
Interior (West, Central)
Coastal (East, Northeast)
The strongest growth is from the smaller cities and interior regions
Retail sales in smaller cities are accelerating ahead of the bigger cities …
… and retail sales in interior regions are increasingly tracking coastal regions
4 star hotel
International Retail Chain
KFC
National Supermarket Chain
Example: Taizhou in Zhejiang
Even in Tier 4 cities we are seeing the impact of growth and modernization
`
Beijing
Xun River
Huang River
Yangtze River
Guangzhou
Qingdao
Chengdu
Dalian
Xian
Fuzhou
ShanghaiWuhan
Tianjin
Xiamen
Jinan
Zhengzhou
Changsha
Shenzhen
Chongqing
Shenyang
Regional ClustersNumber of Cities in
the cluster
Yangzte River Delta (YRD) 58
Hebei Shandong (incl. Beijing/Tianjin) 63
South (incl. Guangdong)
37
Henan/Shaanxi/Shanxi 31
Sichuan (incl. Chengdu/Chongqing)
31
Hunan/Hubei 47
Anhui/Jiangxi 20
North East 22
Hefei
Because these new consumers are increasingly spread across 100’s of cities it is useful to think of China as a collection of markets
Tier 1 = 6
Tier 2 = 32
Tier 3 = 264
Tier 4 = 374
China is a cluster of markets
China : Regional Clusters
China restaurant formats growing at ~13% p.a.; FSR accounts for ~75% of the market
Note: Other incl. 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizz consumer foodservicesSource: Euromonitor; Bain analysis
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2005
1,254
2006
1,392
2007
1,572
2008
1,822
2009
2,006
2010
2,350
2011
2,670
2012
Full-
Se
rvic
e
Rest
au
ran
ts
Fast
Food
2,910
13%
China restaurant market size breakdown (RMB B)
Cafés/Bars
Street Stalls
/Kiosks
Other
12%
13%
10%
-3%
(05-12)
CAGR
13%
Customer segments/accounts- restaurant
Western chained FSR/QSR market is more concentrated compared to Asian ones
0
20
40
60
80
100%
2012 China chained restaurant market size
(RMB B)
Asian full-service
Xiao Wei Yang
Little Sheep
Dezhuang
Taoranju
South Beauty
Quanjude
Other
102
Pizza
Hut
Babeila
Papa
John's
Other
14
Ajisen
Ramen
Kungfu
Daniang Dumpling
CSC
Yoshinoya
Other
14
Western fast food
KFC
McDonald's
Dicos
cnHLS
Other
80
Cafés/bars
UBC
Café
Starbucks
C Straits Café
McCafé
DIO
Costa Coffee
Other
14
Western
full-service
Asian
fast food
Yonghe King
Total =
RMB225B
Note: Chained restaurants in ‘other’ segment (100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizza consumer foodservices) not included here (total size is minimal)Source: Euromonitor; Bain analysis
Customer segments/accounts- restaurant
China retail: Strong growth in retail market; modern trade gaining share
Customer segments/accounts- retail
Source: Annual reports; GS Supermarkets report; Access Asia; Euromonitor; Statistical Yearbook of China Chain Stores; Expert Interviews; Lit research; Bain analysis; EIU exchange rates
0
2
4
6
8
10 T
2003
2.8
2004
3.1
2005
3.4
2006
3.8
2007
4.4
2008
5.0
2009
5.7
2010
6.5
2011
7.2
2012
8.1
22%
15%
28%
18%
12%
CAGR
12% 19%14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18% 18% 18%
( )China retail market value RMB Tn
Tra
dit
ion
al tr
ad
e
Hyper
Super
CVS
Warehouse clubs
(03-12)
13%
Share of MT
Hyper
Super
CVS
Warehouse clubs
Traditional trade
Modern trade
Note: Includes all large supermarkets (>6000 sq meters)Source: Bain experience
Retail chains: fragmented with national players and many different regional/provincial players
Customer segments/accounts
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Xinyijia
Walmart/
Trustmart
RT-Mart
NGS
Metro
Lianhua
Letian
CRE
Carrefour
BJ Hualian
Auchan
TESCO
Others
~70
Yongwang
Xinyijia
/Walmart
Trustmart
Tianhong
-RT Mart
Renrenle
Metro
Lotus
CRE
Carrefour
TESCO
~80
/ Walmart Trustmart
-RT Mart
NGS
Metro
Lotus
Lianhua
Hualian GMS
Carrefour
Auchan
~60
Wumart
/Walmart
Trustmart
-RT Mart
NGS
Metro
Lianhua
CRE
Carrefour
~45
Yonghui
Wumart
/Walmart
Trustmart
Metro
Lotus
Huapu
Carrefour
BJ
Hualian
Auchan
~40
Yingzuo
SD WF
-RT Mart
Liqun
Jiajiayue
~30
Wuhan
ZS
W
uh
an
Zh
on
gb
ai
W
uh
an
Wu
sha
ng
Walmart/
Trustmart
~25
Yon
gh
ui
Xinhuadu
/W
alm
art
Trustm
art
Metro
~20
/W
alm
art
Tru
stm
art
-RT
Mart
Da
sha
ng
Carrefour
TESCO
Xin
yijia
Tianhong
Guobao
Bubugao
~15
Beig
uo
Yonghui
W
uh
an
Zh
on
gba
i
/ W
alm
art
Trustm
art
~10
Yonghui
Wumart
/Walmart
Trustmart
-RT Mart
Renrenle
Lianhua
Hongkelong
Dashang
CRE
Carrefour
BJ Hualian
Auchan
TESCO
Others
~100
China hypermarket and large supermarket revenue 2012 (RMB Bn)
Lotus
TESCO
Auchan
TESCO
~20 ~15
Total =~530 Bn
97,3
100,6
107,9
115,5
116,5
121,8
158,2
129,2
135,4
315,9
552,7
842,5
Halibut
Skipjack
Herring
Ribbon
Haddock
Fish Liver & Roe
Mackerel
Plaice
Flatfish
Salmon
Cod
Pollock
Top 12 Imported Species in 303(US$m) US$/TonTons
(000’s)
~US$2.7b or ~80%
The top 12 species account for about 80% of frozen fish imports
(1) Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2) Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3) Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource: China Customs
1,299
2,225
2,702
1,653
1,804
1,612
9,524
2,331
648.4
248.3
125.2
81.9
71.6
98.2
12.8
50.0
1,859
611
1,980
62.1
176.8
50.8
28.0 3,473
(1)
(2)
(3)
13
28
50
50
62
72
82
98
125
177
238
648
Fish Liver & Roe
Halibut
Skipjack
Haddock
Ribbon
Plaice
Flatfish
Mackerel
Salmon
Herring
Cod
Pollock
Top 12 Imported Species in 303(000’ tons) Iceland
QuotaHow Much
Stays?
(1)
(2)
Comment
(3)
Iceland quota overlaps with some imported species that China wants
(1) Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2) Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3) Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource: China Customs
N/A
270.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.4
<10%
20%
50%
15%
40%
?
?
90%
Cod, Saithe, Blue Whiting, Russian, Norway
American plaice, plaice
But can Source
31
13.5
Nil
?
90%
10%
Herring, Loophole 1,2
Greenland Halibut
190
Lemon sole
6.4
But can Source
Attract and retain top talent with expert knowledge of seafood and consumer behavior
Best-in-Class
operations, with focus on
efficiency, quality and flexibility
Unique access to the seafood
resource in the North Atlantic
through ownership and strategic
alliances
Market driven with a deep
understanding of consumers needs
and trends
Innovated seafood category manager with focus on R&D throughout the value chain
17
Icelandic inspires consumers in its coremarkets to eat more quality fish from sustainable
resources
Icelandic Group VisionBuilt on our Core Competences
China is our growth marketChina is our growth market