key trends in shipping markets - espo 0945 power drewry... · thermal coal trade overview global...
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Key trends in shipping markets
ESPO Conference, 2018
30th May, 2018
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Content
• Trade patterns
‒ How US shale is transforming oil and gas markets
‒ Iron ore shifts East
‒ Brakes on for Thermal Coal
• Service patterns
‒ Alliances, ULCVs and liner network development
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US transforms gas and oil markets
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Overview of global LNG trade (2012)
Qatar was the biggest LNG exporter, export volume stood at 78.0 million tonnes, 32% of total LNG
trade. LNG trade also gained momentum on the Russia to Asia trade lane
Source: Drewry Research Database, BP Statistics
Nigeria - Europe
8.6 Mt
Australia - Asia
20.7 Mt
Indonesia -
Asia,
18.5 Mt
Qatar - Asia
48.9 Mt
Algeria - Europe
11.2 Mt
Qatar - Europe
23.0 Mt Trinidad &
Tobago-S. and
central America
7.4 Mt
Russia-Asia
10.9 Mt
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Overview of global LNG trade (2017)
Qatar remains the biggest LNG exporter , challenged by Australia. US emerging strongly and is
expected to be the third biggest exporter of LNG
Source: Drewry Research Database, GIGNL report
Nigeria - Europe
8.8 Mt
Australia - Asia
55.5 Mt
Indonesia -
Asia,
18.5 Mt
Qatar - Asia
52.1 Mt
Algeria - Europe
10.5 Mt
US-Europe
1.8 Mt
Qatar - Europe
17.7 Mt
US-Asia
4.8 Mt
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
US is expected to have total capacity of 105mtpa by 2022
Lake Charles 15mtpa
Corpus Christi T3 4.5mtpa
Dominion Cove Point 5.8mtpa
Elba Southern LNG 2.5mtpa
Cameron LNG (T1-T3) 10mtpa
Sabine Pass T1-T3 13.5mtpa (operational), T4-T5 10 mtpa (under const.)
Lousiana LNG 2mtpa
Texas LNG 2mtpa
Corpus Christi T1-T2 9mtpa
Freeport LNG 13,2mtpa
Golden Pass T1-T3 15.6mtpa
Magnolia T1-T4 8mtpa
Cameron LNG T4-T5 10mtpa
Global Venture 10mtpa
Operational Liquefaction Plants
Planned Liquefaction Plants
Under construction Liquefaction Plants
Kenai 1.6mtpa
Source: Drewry research database
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Overview of global LNG trade (2022)
The US is expected to become the largest LNG exporter, followed by Australia. Meanwhile, China will rise as a
major LNG importer in the Asian market importing about 60 million tonnes of gas
Source: Drewry Research Database
25
105
2017 2022 (f)
USA liquefaction capacity (Mt)
22 49
2017 2022 (f)
Nigeria liquefaction capacity (Mt)
69 91
2017 2022 (f)
Australia Liquifaction capacity (Mt)
15 26
2017 2022(f)
Russia's liquefaction capacity
(Mt)
020406080
100120
mtp
a
Current 2022
Overview of Global Trade – Crude Oil
Cargo volumes based on 2016 trade data
The Middle East has been largest exporter of crude.
The Middle East is the largest exporter of crude oil; it and with West Africa have been main suppliers of crude oil to Asia.
The US is however becoming a prominent supplier of crude to the world amidst supply cuts enforced by the OPEC. The
US Gulf refineries, which account for most of the US’s refined products production, use heavy grade for their slate,
which is imported from the Latin Americas and Canada, by pipeline. The lighter crude from the US is exported to Asia
and Europe. Crude from Northern sea enters Europe via the Baltic Sea.
Cargo volumes based on 2016 trade data
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
US crude production taking off
9,243
12,133
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2022
US crude oil production (kbpd)
45.6%
2.0%
41.3%
7.2%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
2007 2012 2017 2022
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Crude oil trade on major routes
xxxx
Source: Drewry Research Database, BP Statistics
29% 33% 34%
20%
30%
40%
2007 2012 2017
ME-Asia
5% 5% 4%
0%
10%
2007 2012 2017
ME-USA
12% 12%
11%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2007 2012 2017
FSU-Europe
1% 2%
4%
0%
5%
2007 2012 2017
FSU-Asia 6% 5% 6%
0%
10%
2007 2012 2017
ME-Europe
*NE Asia: Japan, South Korea, China
6% 7%
5%
0%
5%
10%
2007 2012 2017
Africa-Europe
1%
3% 4%
0%
5%
2007 2012 2017
Latin America-Asia
4% 4% 3%
0%
5%
2007 2012 2017
Latin America-USA
5% 6% 7%
0%
5%
10%
2007 2012 2017
Africa-Asia Pacific
0% 0%
0.6%
0%
1%
2007 2012 2017
USA-Asia Pacific
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Iron ore shifts East
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Iron ore trade overview
771
1,099
1,511
2007 2012 2017
Global iron ore trade (Million Tonnes) Global iron ore imports (% share)
71% 84% 85%
20% 9% 7%
2007 2012 2017
Asia EU Other
China 84% Japan
9%
South Korea
5%
Taiwan 2%
China accounted more than four-fifths of Asian imports in 2017
Europe imports widespread
Netherlands 25%
Germany 16%
France 15%
UK
Italy 7%
Spain 6%
Others 24%
Demand is growing fast and shifting East
CAGR-
7.3%
CAGR-
6.6%
Asia
imports by
country,
2017
EU
imports by
country,
2017
Source: GTIS, Drewry
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Iron ore exports (million tonnes)
Australia and Brazil are the top iron ore exporters and contribute 80% of
global trade. Very rapid growth.
24 32 42
0
500
1,000
2007 2012 2017
Canada
269 327 373
0
500
1,000
2007 2012 2017
Brazil
30 54 66
0
500
1,000
2007 2012 2017
74 30 33
0
500
1,000
2007 2012 2017
India
267
492
828
0
500
1,000
2007 2012 2017
Australia 55%
Brazil 25%
South Africa 4%
Canada 3%
other 11%
Share in
2017
exports
Australia
South Africa
Source: GTIS, Drewry
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Brakes on for Thermal Coal
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Thermal coal trade overview
Global coal trade (million tonnes)
Sharp slowdown in coal volume growth
562
786
829
2007 2012 2017
Global coal imports (% share)
Share of the EU in coal imports is declining steeply.
During 2007-12 the share was taken by the rising
imports of major Asian importers, However, 2012
onwards minor Asian importers and Turkey is taking
up the share
CAGR-
6.9%
CAGR-
1.1%
India 27%
Japan 25%
South Korea 20%
China 18%
Taiwan 10%
Malaysia 32%
Thailand 24%
Philippines
22%
Pakistan 12%
Vietnam 10%
Asia coal imports, 2017 (% share)
Major Asian
importers,
2017
Minor Asian
importers,
2017
Source: GTIS, Drewry
23%
16% 12%
52%
66% 63%
10% 10% 15% 15%
9% 10%
2007 2012 2017
EU Major Asian importers Minor Asian importers Other
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
Thermal coal imports (million tonnes)
Major importers decline or slow; minor players grow
131 122
96
2007 2012 2017
15
21
32
2007 2012 2017
294
519 526
2007 2012 2017
40 57
91
2007 2012 2017
EU
Major Asian importers
Minor Asian importers Turkey
-1.4% -4.7%
12.0% 0.3%
7.7%
8.3%
7.3%
9.9%
Coal imports (million tonnes), CAGR (in %)
__ : CAGR below world’s average
__ : CAGR above world’s average
Source: GTIS, Drewry
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Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018
41
12 7
2007 2012 2017
EU thermal coal imports sources
Colombia and Russia are the EU’s major sources of coal
Share in
EU imports,
2017
US
Colombia
South Africa
Russia
Intra- EU
8
25
13
2007 2012 2017
7 9
7
2007 2012 2017
24
26
27
2007 2012 2017
31 38 36
2007 2012 2017
Colombia 38%
Russia 28%
United States 13%
EU 7%
South Africa
7%
Others 7%
Source: GTIS, Drewry
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Alliances, ULCVs and liner networks
19 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Containership sizes double on most trades
• · ·
Evolution of average ship sizes on major trade routes
Source : Drewry Maritime Research
Source : Drewry Maritime Research
Trade Route (TEU) 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
Far East/N Europe 7,779 9,552 12,235 15,291
Far East/Mediterranean (direct) 5,488 6,848 8,625 10,998
Transpacific headhaul 5,079 5,869 6,740 7,828
Transatlantic headhaul 3,609 3,872 4,458 4,703
ECSA/Far East 5,074 3,240 8,314 9,236
WCSA/F East 5,100 2,681 7,207 7,751
Eur/S Africa 3,301 3,116 7,657 8,096
Far East/S Africa (direct) 5,255 3,651 7,061 5,068
Eur/W Africa (direct) 1,965 1,636 2,578 2,965
Far East/W Africa (Direct) 2,755 2,220 4,846 5,490
Asia/Mid-East and South Asia (direct)
2,926 3,692 5,594 5,409
20 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Consolidation and alliances
Major industry consolidation among companies and alliances
2017
Hapag-Lloyd
UASC HL merges
with UASC
MOL NYK K-Line
Ocean
Network
Express
2018 (Container Operations Only)
Maersk Hamburg-
Sud
Maersk
acquires
Hamburg
Sud
2016
CMA-CGM APL
CMA-CGM
acquires
APL
COSCO CSCL
COSCO
merges
with CSCL
OOCL
2017
2M
Ocean
THE
21 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Vessel sizes and service frequency
Vessel sizes rise and service frequency declines. Volume is being
concentrated…
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
Average vessel size (TEU)
Asia-North Europe Asia-Med
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
Number of services (per week)
Asia-North Europe Asia-Med
22 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Port coverage: Asia – North Europe
…but extended port coverage is being maintained…
Poland
Sweden Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
France
UK
Le Havre
Southampton
Felixstowe
London Gateway
Dunkirk
Hamburg
Aarhus
Gdansk
Gothenburg
2M
Alliance:
Ocean THE
Rotterdam
Antwerp
Zeebrugge
Wilhelmshaven
Bremerhaven
23 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Direct calls: Asia – North Europe
…with direct calls; received wisdom about large vessels = transhipment was
wrong
2M
Ocean
THE
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
AE10
AE2
AE1
AE7
AE5
AE6
FAL5
FAL6 FAL2 FAL3 FAL7 FAL1
FE4
FE5 FE1 FE3 FE2
24 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC
Volatility
Concentration of volume creates new risks
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Antwerp and Rotterdam volume share (%)
Antwerp Rotterdam Linear (Antwerp) Linear (Rotterdam)
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