key problems in the evidence base in britain's migration debate the migration observatory at...
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Key problems in the evidence base in Britain's migration debate
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
COMPAS Breakfast Briefing13 May 2011
#1: EmigrationSample survey is only source
#2: ImmigrationDiscrepancies across sources
#3: Net MigrationFlows do not match stocks
#4: Immigration StatusNo systematic data
• Within the UK migrant population (“stock”)
– How many are on Tier 1 visas? Tier 2? Other?
– How many on student visas are employed?
– How do skills vary across different immigration statuses?
#5: Local area statistics:Imprecise estimates
#6: Public OpinionWho counts as a migrant?
• Government stats vs. members of public– Permanent/temporary– Students– Skills, resources– Legal/illegal
• Mismatched definitions mismatched policies?
#7: Impact on Public ServicesLack of data collection and analysis
• Lack of data collection on migrant status of users of services
• Scarcity of systematic research on migrants’ role in provision of public services
#8: Impact on HousingInsufficient research
• Impact on house prices, rents
• Indirect effects on social housing
#9: Student migration:Uncertain numbers, compliance, impacts
• Contribution to net migration– Visas vs. IPS– Exits• “potential” vs. actual non-compliance
• Impact on job market for British graduates
#10: Irregular/illegal MigrantsNumbers, characteristics
• Uncertainty– 524,000 – 947,000 estimated at end of 2007
(based on methods in 2005 Home Office report)
• Questions of definitions (e.g. semi-compliance)
www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukmigrationobservatory@compas.ox.ac.uk