Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management

Key Calls across Asset Classes DB X-Trackers

October 2013

Houda Ennebati

+33 1 44 95 61 83

Houda.ennebati@db.com

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Asset class performance YTD

DM equities have outperformed YTD. Sell-off in EM assets since May 22 has mostly reversed, except in FX

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& Wealth Management

Fund flows: sustained flows into Western Europe equity funds

Fund flows: Western Europe shines and outflows from EM equity funds gain pace (as of Sept. 27th)

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& Wealth Management

DB Forecasts – Global economy is gaining momentum

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& Wealth Management

Despite the recent softness in some data…

Durable goods orders have disappointed

Consumer confidence fallen from 6Y high in July

Below expectation housing starts, building

permits

…the underlying momentum remain intact

Labor market continues to recover (weekly

jobless claims down to 2007 levels)

Corporate activity is strengthening (Q2 corporate

profits +3.9% vs. -1.3% in Q1)

We remain bullish on the medium term outlook and

see growth accelerating to +3% in H2 and 2014

Private sector deleveraging complete

Housing recovery to continue

Lower pace of fiscal tightenning

US – The underlying momentum remains intact and support our view of a sustained recovery

S&P 500 : we target year end level of 1750

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& Wealth Management

US - Strategy implementation ….

US – Bullish Long Term

• Code D5BM GY

• TER 0.20%

• AuM 974 Mios €

• +0.01% Net outperf. (end July)

DB X-Trackers S&P 500

• Code XKSP GY

• TER 0.30%

• AuM 974 Mios € DB X-Trackers S&P 500 Euro Hedged

• Code XRU2 GY

• TER 0.45%

• AuM 457 Mios € DB X-Trackers Russell 2000

• Code XMUS GY

• TER 0.30%

• AuM 1564 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI USA

• Code XCUI1CE LX

• TER 0.50%

• AuM 680 Mios € DB Platinum CROCI US

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

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& Wealth Management

The rebound from the Eurozone's longest recession on

record was stronger than expected

Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% vs. consensus of 0.1%

The Q2 recovery was broad-based across countries

Germany beat high expectations

France gained from consumption and exports

Italy and Spain are stabilizing

Portugal recorded a 1.1% jump in GDP

Expect a return to positive growth from Q2-Q3

Improving peripheral export performance

Inventory cycle is turning

Fiscal tightening has peaked

Supportive credit impulse2

Europe – Expected to emerge from recession in H2

Greater positive surprise potential in Europe than in the US – Stoxx 600 can reach 345

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& Wealth Management

Europe - Strategy implementation ….

Europe – Bullish long-term

• Code XESC GY/XESX GY

• TER 0.00%

• AuM 2 195 Mios €

• +0.34% Net outperf. (end July)

DB X-Trackers Eurostoxx 50

• Code XMEU GY

• TER 0.30%

• AuM 1 074 Mios €

• +0.02% Net outperf. (end July)

DB X-Trackers MSCI Europe

• Code XSX6 GY

• TER 0.20%

• AuM 525 Mios €

• +0.04% Net outperf. (end July)

DB X-Trackers Stoxx Europe 600

• Code XCREI1C LX

• TER 0.50%

• AuM 175 Mios €

• +3.65% outperf. vs Eurostoxx50 (end July)

DB Platinum CROCI Euro

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

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& Wealth Management

We remain positive on Abenomics

Recent victory for Abe’s coalition in upper house

elections provide it with a majority in both houses

until at least 2016, thus a strong mandate for report

Government upgraded its GDP growth estimate for

Q2 2013 to +3.8% QoQ.

We see several drivers for the recovery

BoJ easing bias

Weaker yen leading to stronger earnings for

exporters

Improving sentiment

Consumption tax hike to 8% in April 2014 and to

10% in Oct. 2015 looking likely, hence rush demand

will lift domestic demand through Q1 2014

Japan – Return to growth story continues

Weaker Yen and Improving sentiment is set to drive the recovery

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Japan - Strategy implementation ….

Japan – BoJ easing bias, a weaker yen and improving sentiment is set to drive the recovery

• Code XMJP GY

• TER 0.50%

• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan

• Code XMK9 GY

• TER 0.60%

• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan Euro Hedged

• Code XMUJ LN

• TER 0.60%

• AuM 900 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Japan Dollar Hedged

• Code DCJI1CE LX

• TER 0.50%

• AuM 236 Mios €

DB Platinum CROCI Japan

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

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& Wealth Management

Emerging Markets – Fed’s non-taper helps Asia

EM Assets could remain in fashion for the rest of the year

Our US economists now expect no change in

Fed policy in October, with the first taper move now

likely in December

For Asia, this brings welcome respite, especially

for deficit economies (India, Indonesia) :

expectations that global liquidity will remain ample

and cheap for a longer period will make deficit

financing easier.

One worry : ongoing fiscal and monetary

adjustment to be delayed or postponed in some

countries. Inevitable rally in asset prices will bring

back the imbalances (stemming from

overconsumption, property price bubble, and

excessive credit growth) that had just begun to

correct in many parts of Asia.

Further upside to Asia may well stem from

Europe. Asia’s value-added of exports to EU is in

fact larger than to the US or China.

EM assets could remain in fashion for the rest of

the year

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Emerging Markets Asia - Strategy implementation ….

EM Assets could remain in fashion for the rest of the year

• Code XMEM GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 2 235 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Emerging Markets

• Code XMAS GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 687 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Emerging Asia

• Code XCS5 GY

• TER 0.75%

• AuM 34 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI India

• Code XNIF GY

• TER 0.85%

• AuM 145 Mios € DB X-Trackers S&P CNX Nifty (India)

• Code XMIN GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 75 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Indonesia

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

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& Wealth Management

China macro data is showing signs of stability

July trade growth exceeded expectations on

recovering external demand

HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to above 50 in

August, confirming the recovery trend

Expect recent pick-up in growth momentum will continue,

driven by

Strong export momentum from recovery in US and

Eurozone

Faster real estate investment (given 30% yoy

increase in land sale in H1)

Recovery in corporate confidence driven by reforms

Chinese Communist Party congress meeting in November

should deliver further reforms to drive future growth and

support rebalancing efforts

China – Hard landing fears have eased on stronger domestic data and hopes of an export pick up driven by the US/EU recovery

Slowdown fears reduced on the back of improving recent data

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& Wealth Management

China - Strategy implementation ….

China – Next reform meeting in November will be crucial for future growth and ongoing rebalancing efforts

• Code XCHA GY

• TER 0.50%

• AuM 582 Mios € DB X-Trackers CSI 300

• Code XX25 GY

• TER 0.60%

• AuM 177 Mios € DB X-Trackers FTSE China 25

• Code XCS6 GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 106 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI China

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013

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& Wealth Management

Current account is in surplus

Equivalent to roughly 5% of GDP

Philippines gain from weak commodity prices, being a net

importer of oil, coal, food, etc

Forex reserves ate at 83 bns $

Equivalent to 12 months of imports of goods and services

Equivalent to 6x short term FX debt

Reserves also exceed total FX debt (public+private) of

about 60 bns $

Practically no state subsidies on oil, power, food, etc

Weak commodity prices have kept inflation benign (sub-

3%)

Public sector is in good shape

Fiscal deficit is running at 2% of GDP

Government debt to GDP is below 50% and falling

Its average debt maturity is close to 11 years – among

the longest in the world

Philippines – Fundamentals are stronger, both externally and domestically

Any correction could open up some Buy opportunities

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Philippines – Strategy implementation ….

Philippines – Fundamentals are stronger, both externally and domestically

• Code XPQP GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 45 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Philippines

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Growth prospects are improving

Favorable demographics

Expectations of a recovering global economy

Still high commodity prices

Investment in productive capacity

Improved macroeconomic management and increased

political stability

Strong public spending, especially on infrastructure

and services

FDI is increasing impressively

New discoveries and further exploration suggest the

promise of strong revenue flows and an opportunity

to create employment

Consumer demand has grown rapidly

Solid real income growth

Emerging urban middle class

Sub Saharan Africa – A bright spot

A decade of 5% real GDP growth, second only to Emerging Asia

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Sub Saharan Africa – Strategy implementation ….

Sub Saharan Africa – A decade of strong and sustained economic growth set to continue

• Code XMKA GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 13 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI EFM Africa Top 50

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Energy Sector – a pillar of the Mexican economy

More room for the private sector to participate to

government granted contracts

PEMEX to be fully transformed

Accountability and transparency to improve

Labor Market Reform

Deregulate labor market reducing the cost of hiring

and firing workers

Increase productivity

Fiscal Reform

Tax structure in the VAT system will rely less on

Pemex revenues

Streamlining of corporate income tax

Mexico – An ambitious agenda of policy upgrades

Ambitious reform program with the new administration

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Mexico – Strategy implementation ….

Mexico – Expect more GDP growth thanks to new government ‘s “Pacto por Mexico”

• Code D5BI GY

• TER 0.65%

• AuM 102 Mios € DB X-Trackers MSCI Mexico

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Italian and Spanish yields have remained extremely

resilient; spreads are close to the levels seen before the

summer of 2011.

Data continues to surprise to the upside in the Euro-area

(Flash PMIs).

From a structural perspective peripheral markets are

clearly less vulnerable to external pressures due to the

significant de-risking by international investors as well as

the significant improvement in current account balances.

Therefore, even though peripheral yields might struggle

to decline in the wake of renewed issuance they could

still perform on a spread basis.

Potential for political upsets (particularly for Italy)

Still unconvincing fiscal consolidation results in Spain,

where the deficit target for 2013 could, once again, fail to

be met. Debt sustainability will continue to be regularly

questioned.

Greece will return to the headlines over the next quarter :

there is a funding gap in 2014-15 according to the IMF,

and this will need to be covered for the IMF to continue

disbursements, likely creating some tensions in the

upcoming Troika review.

Fixed Income – Looking for yield

Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds

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& Wealth Management

Fixed Income - Strategy implementation ….

Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds

•Code XY4P GY

•TER 0.15%

•AuM 833 Mios €

•Duration : 5.91 years

•Yield to Maturity : 3.86%

DB X-Trackers iBoxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

DB X-Trackers iBoxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus 1-3 Y

• Code XYP1 GY

• TER 0.15%

• AuM 176 Mios €

• Duration : 1.84 years

• Yield to Maturity : 1.92%

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Fixed Income - Strategy implementation ….

Overcome underweight in Spanish & Italian sovereign bonds

• Code X1ES GY - TER 0.15%

• AuM 18 Mios €

• Duration : 1.86 years

• Yield to Maturity : 2.07 %

DB X-Trackers iBoxx Spain 1-3 Y

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 30th Sept. 2013

DB X-Trackers iBoxx Spain • Code XIES GY - TER 0.20%

• AuM 18 Mios €

• Duration : 5.35 years

• Yield to Maturity : 4.03 %

DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate

DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate 1-3 Y

DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate 3-5 Y

DB X-Trackers MTS Italy Aggregate BOT

DB X-Trackers MTS Italy BTP

• Code XITA IM - TER 0.20%

• AuM 72 Mios €

• Duration : 4.57 years

• Yield to Maturity : 4.04 %

• Code XI13 GY - TER 0.15%

• AuM 18 Mios €

• Duration : 1.59 years

• Yield to Maturity : 1.88 %

• Code XIT3 GY - TER 0.20%

• AuM 18 Mios €

• Duration : 3.0 years

• Yield to Maturity : 2.96 %

• Code XBOT IM - TER 0.20%

• AuM 173 Mios €

• Duration : 0.41 years

• Yield to Maturity : 0.83 %

• Code XBTP IM - TER 0.20%

• AuM 33 Mios €

• Duration : 5.72 years

• Yield to Maturity : 4.12 %

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Commodities – Energy & Metals – Global PMI strength will be constructive for the sector

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Short and long term factors favor an investment in cyclical commodities

Commodities and production capabilities

are limited

Energy consumption increased by

60% in the past 25 years and is

expected to increase by an

additional 40% in the next 25 years

Fossil fuels exist only in limited

quantities and alternative

exploration of oil fields, such as

deep sea drilling are cost intensive

and only profitable when oil prices

are high

Limited production capabilities

Many commodity extraction sites

are aged

Political and geographical

challenges

Emerging Markets growth

China plans to build 82 new airports

by 2015 as part of the current Five

Year Plan

Stimulus and Infrastructure programs

e.g. EUR 1.4 billion are invested in

the modernisation of the German

railway(2)

Information and Entertainement technology

Copper is used in the production of

micro-processors and the key

component for products in the

communications and computer

technology industry(5

Increasing Demand Limited Supply

Participation to

rising prices

Investment

linked to real

goods

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Commodities – Energy & Metals - Crucial commodities in the industrial and infrastructure space

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Forecasts are showing decent potential upside / Index + 4.40% est. at end 2013

Q3 2013 Q4 2013 est. % potential upside

Energy

Brent (bbl) – 16% in the index 105.00 107.00 + 1.9%

RBOS Gasoline (g) – 8% in the index 2.75 2.80 + 1.8%

Natural Gas (mmBtu) – 8% in the index 3.80 4.00 + 5.3%

Gasoil (t) – 8% in the index 895.00 915.00 + 2.2%

Metals

Aluminium (Usc/lb) – 17% in the index 88.5 93.0 + 5.1%

Copper (Usc/lb) – 17% in the index 335.8 344.8 + 2.7%

Zinc (Usc/lb) – 10% in the index 88.5 93.0 + 5.1%

Nickel (Usc/lb) – 10% in the index 657.9 748.6 + 13.8%

Lead (Usc/lb) – 6% in the index 97.5 99.8 + 2.3%

Source: Deutsche Bank, 13 Sept. 2013

Energy & Metals Index + 4.4% est. end 2013

Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

Energy & Metals – Strategy implementation ….

UCITS Compliant Fund

• UCITS IV Compliant

• TER 0.71%

• AuM 15 Mios €

• Currency Hedged

DB Platinum Energy & Metals UCITS Fund

Source: Deutsche Bank, as of 4th Sept. 2013

The mentioned weights are rebalanced on a monthly basis to their base

weights. All nine commodities are replicated via standardised future

contracts, which have to be rolled.

Futures close to maturity are replaced by longer term maturity futures.

To select new futures, the index uses the DB Optimum Yield

methodology which aims to maximise gains and minimise losses that

occur in the process of rolling futures contracts. When a contract needs

to be rolled, the Optimum Yield methodology selects the relatively

cheapest future at that time (out of all available futures contracts with a

maximum maturity of 13 months).

The index additionally effects monthly FX transactions to hedge the

USD denominated commodities against currency changes relative to

the EUR, also on a monthly basis.

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& Wealth Management

— Investors should note that the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors in each db X-trackers UCITS ETF should be prepared

and able to sustain losses of the capital invested up to a total loss.

— Investment in db X-trackers UCITS ETFs involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to the relevant index, credit risks on the provider

of index swaps utilised in the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and legal and regulatory risks.

— db X-trackers UCITS ETFs following a direct replication investment policy, may engage in securities lending. In these instances the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs face the

risk of the borrower not returning the securities lent by the db X-trackers UCITS ETF due to e.g. a default situation and the risk that collateral received by the db X-

trackers UCITS ETFs may be liquidated at a value lower than the value of the securities lent out by the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs. Despite the indemnity provided by

Deutsche Bank to the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs for such a situation, the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs and hence investors may suffer a loss.

— The db X-trackers UCITS ETFs use Deutsche Bank as the counterparty for OTC derivative transactions. In the event of a default under the terms of the OTC derivative

transaction by Deutsche Bank, the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs would be liquidated and investors could lose up to 10% of the NAV of the db X-trackers UCITS ETF. The

NAV at the time of default also may be considerably less than the amount an investor originally invested depending on the performance of the relevant underlying index.

You should therefore understand and evaluate the counterparty credit risk prior to making any investment.

— The value of an investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to the future.

— Not all db X-trackers UCITS ETFs may be suitable for all investors so please consult your financial advisor before you invest in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF

— db X-trackers UCITS ETFs shares may be denominated in a currency different to that of the traded currency on the stock exchange in which case exchange rate

fluctuations may have a negative effect on the returns of the fund.

— Tax treatment of the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs depends on the individual circumstances of each investor. The levels and bases of, and any applicable relief from,

taxation can change. db X-trackers may trade in limited markets.

— db X-trackers may be unable to replicate precisely the performance of an index.

— Investors' income is not fixed and may fluctuate.

— The value of any investment involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements.

— For further information regarding risk factors, please refer to the risk factors section of the listing particulars or full prospectus.

— An investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF tracking a leveraged or short index is intended for financially sophisticated investors who wish to take a very short term

view on the underlying index, e.g., for day trading purposes. Therefore the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs on leveraged or short indices are appropriate only for financially

sophisticated investors who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks. The db X-trackers UCITS ETFs on leveraged or short indices are not intended to be a buy

and hold investment.

— Investors should be aware that Deutsche Bank or its affiliates (“DB Affiliates”) may from time to time own interests in any db x-trackers UCITS ETF which may represent

a significant amount or proportion of the overall investor holdings in the relevant db x-trackers UCITS ETF. Investors should consider what possible impact such holdings,

or any disposal thereof, by DB Affiliates may have on them.

Investment risks relating to db X-trackers UCITS ETFs

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

(a) Emerging Market Risk: Investments in the market to which the Reference Index relates are currently exposed to risks pertaining to emerging

markets generally. These include risks brought about by investment ceiling limits where foreign investors are subject to certain holding limits and

constraints imposed on trading of listed securities where a registered foreign investor may only maintain a trading account with one licensed

securities company in the relevant market. These may contribute to the illiquidity of the relevant securities market, as well as create inflexibility

and uncertainty as to the trading environment.

(b) Legal Risk: The economies of most emerging markets are often substantially less developed than those of other geographic regions such as

the United States and Europe. The laws and regulations affecting these economies are also in a relatively early stage of development and are

not as well established as the laws and regulations of developed countries. Such countries’ securities laws and regulations may still be in their

development stages and not drafted in a very concise manner which may be subject to interpretation. In the event of a securities related dispute

involving a foreign party, the laws of these countries would typically apply (unless an applicable international treaty provides otherwise). The court

systems of these nations are not as transparent and effective as court systems in more developed countries or territories and there can be no

assurance of obtaining effective enforcement of rights through legal proceedings and generally the judgements of foreign courts are often not

recognised.

(c) Regulatory Risk: Foreign investment in emerging economies’ primary and secondary securities markets is often still relatively new and much

of the relevant securities laws may be ambiguous and/or have been developed to regulate direct investment by foreigners rather than portfolio

investment. Investors should note that because of a lack of precedent, securities market laws and the regulatory environment for primary and

secondary market investments by foreign investors can be in the early stages of development, and may, in some jurisdictions, remain untested.

The regulatory framework of the emerging economies’ primary and secondary securities markets is often in the development stage compared to

many of the world’s leading stock markets, and accordingly there may be a lower level of regulatory monitoring of the activities of the emerging

economies’ primary and secondary securities markets.

d) Foreign Exchange Risk: Some currencies of emerging markets are controlled. Investors should note the risks of limited liquidity in certain

foreign exchange markets.

(e) Trading Volumes and Volatility: Often emerging market stock exchanges are smaller and have lower trading volumes and shorter trading

hours than most OECD exchanges and the market capitalisations of listed companies are small compared to those on more developed

exchanges in developed markets. The listed equity securities of many companies on such exchanges are accordingly materially less liquid,

subject to greater dealer spreads and experience materially greater volatility than those of OECD countries. Many such exchanges have, in the

past, experienced substantial price volatility and no assurance can be given that such volatility will not occur in the future. The above factors could

negatively affect the Net Asset Value of the Sub-Fund

Risk factors Emerging Markets

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Deutsche Asset

& Wealth Management

© 2013 Deutsche Bank AG

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Disclaimer

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