Kevin Ng

RARE EARTH MINERALS INDUSTRY

WHAT ARE RARE EARTHS?• Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are 17 elements within the periodic table

which, contrary to their name, are more abundant than many other minerals (gold, copper, silver, etc.)

• Reason they are “rare” is because it is difficult to find concentrations that are economically exploitable

• The process at which rare earth typically reaches the market includes:

• Mining

• Separation

• Refining

• Alloying

• Manufacturing

Current world demand for rare earth elements is estimated at 136,000 tons per year

RARE EARTH MINERALS INDUSTRY DEFINITION

• Firms in this industry engage in the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of rare earth elements (REEs) outside of China.

• These companies are expected to produce rare earth alloys within the next decade or have already begun production.

• These products are critical materials to clean-energy technologies, high-technology applications, critical defense applications, and everyday electronic household items ranging from cameras to cell phones.

Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP)

Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. (NYSEAMEX: QRM)

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (NYSEAMEX: REE)

Avalon Rare Metals (NYSEAMEX: AVL)

Tasman Metals Ltd. (NYSEAMEX: TAS)

Lynas Corporation Ltd. (ASX: LYC)

INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN

Rare Earth Without China$2.8B

(.001%)

Global Rare Earth84.6B

(.0421%)

Industrial Metals & Minerals$38,566.6B(19.219%)

Basic Materials$200,663.2B

(100%)

42%

9%12%

5%

22%

10%

2011 Production Capacity (Tons)

Molycorp Min-erals

Avalon Rare Metals

Quest Rare Minerals

Tasman Metals

Lynas Corpora-tion

Rare Element Resources

Molycorp Minerals: 42402 Tons (42%)

Avalon Rare Metals: 9296 Tons (9%)

Quest Rare Minerals: 12120 Tons (12%)

Tasman Metals: 5000 Tons (5%)

Lynas Corporation: 22000 Tons (22%)

Rare Element Resources 100000 Tons (10%)

Total Production Capacity: 100818 Tons

OVERALL DRIVERS• Share price appreciation will occur if the metallurgical and financial complexities

from bringing a REE operation into production succeeds. Many of the rare earth companies outside China are still missing the knowledge to effectively convert rare earth deposits into alloys and oxides.

• A report profiled 20 REE companies and showed the YTD returns and cash balances. Average return was about -30% but many of the companies have ample cash balances and indicates financial sustainability. Careful cash management is crucial as they aim for specific goals in a tough market.

• Key component to the industry is cost management, however, since there are no filings for the majority of these companies, it is not possible to analyze the effectiveness of operations.

TRENDS

CHINA’S CHANGING ROLE

*Note: Measured in Tons

CHINA’S INDUSTRY MONOPOLY• Controls 23% of global rare earth deposits but accounts for 96% of production

• Recently launched a physical trading platform for rare earth metals as a part of its efforts to regulate sector and strengthen pricing power made up by Inner Mongolia Baotau Steel Rare-Earth Group

• Quotas and taxes are pushing up rare earth prices abroad, giving Chinese manufacturers in China an unfair advantage.

• In 2010, China used its monopoly in a diplomatic stand-off with Japan when it cut off Japans industry from several of the most essential elements used in high-tech products

Rare Earth Element Price in China ($/ton) Price in Global Markets ($/ton)

Lanathanum $5000 Up to $50000

Neodymium $40000 $80000

CHANGING ROLE OF CHINA• China has been reducing export quotas every year since 2006, reaching up to

72% in order to save reserves to feed growing domestic market

• China is expected to become an importer of some of the materials as early as 2014

• Consumption of rare earths will grow at least 10% a year according to a vice president of China’s biggest rare earth mining company

• China has 23 mines and 99 smelting companies. 1/3 of mines and ½ of smelting companies will fail to meet new standards that China’s government is imposing on production capacity. (20k tons for mines, 5k tons for smelters). This means that due to new government regulations, production will be cut by at least 1/3.

HOW DOES THIS AFFECT PRICE?

Based off shortages and 2011 prices, that is approximately $1 billion of unearned revenue.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND GROWTH

ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND GROWTH• Potentially permanently high metals prices as billions of global citizens urbanize

and improve lifestyles

• BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is still growing at an average of 5.8% since 2011 while MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) has an average annual GDP growth of 5.6%

• Emerging economies typically need more materials due to infrastructural projects which account for more than 52% of the uses of REEs

ADVENT OF GREEN TECHNOLOGY

ADVENT OF GREEN TECHNOLOGY• Demand for rare earths will increase 500,000 tons (to 636,000 tons or a CAGR of

21.3%) by 2020 as big projects in green technology and hybrid cars are expected to rise

• A single wind turbine requires 1-2 tons of neodymium. Wind energy has grown exponential in the last decade with an average increase of 29.7% a year. According to research done by MIT released earlier this year, demand for neodymium could increase as much as 700% in the next quarter century.

• Dysprosium is a critical component of electric car engines and the demand could increase by 2,600 times in the coming 25 years according to the same study by MIT. At 2016, the demand for dysprosium alone is estimated to be 1600 tonnes or approximately $3.25B market annually.

• The global electric vehicle market should grow to 2.7M cars by 2015

COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSISCompany Name Ticker Stage in Development Market Cap (M) % of 52-Wk High EPS Resources (tons)

Production Capacity (tons)

Molycorp MCP Production by Q4 1220 18.86% -0.01 1,840,000 42,402

Quest Rare Minerals QRM Preliminary Economic Analysis 82.22 24.02% -0.05 1,147,082 12,120

Rare Element Resources REE Preliminary Economic Analysis 177.5 41.76% -0.78 398,860 10,000

Avalon Rare Metals AVL Preliminary Feasibility Study 184.7 37.68% -0.11 3,057,000 9,296

Tasman Metals TAS Research & Development 68.36 45.11% -0.16 326,700 5,000

Lynas Corp LYC Construction 1100 34.78% -0.05 1,183,400 22,000

Median 181.1 0.362321053 -0.08 1165241 11060

Average 472.13 0.337035441 -0.19 1325507 16803

Maximum 1220 0.451149425 -0.01 3057000 42402

Minimum 68.36 0.188627852 -0.78 326700 5000

RISKS• European debt crisis could delay economic recovery and stifle investments in

technology

• Toshiba recently developed a new magnet that doesn’t need dysprosium, Toshiba used heat-treatment technology to improve magnetic force of a samarium-cobalt magnet, capable of being applied to automobiles, intends to mass produce by the end of the year.

• Environmental effects are severe: “Every ton of rare earth produced generates approximately 8.5 kilograms (18.7 lbs) of fluorine and 13 kilograms (28.7 lbs) of dust; and using concentrated sulfuric acid high temperature calcination techniques to produce approximately one ton of calcined rare earth ore generates 9,600 to 12,000 cubic meters (339,021 to 423,776 cubic feet) of waste gas containing dust concentrate, hydrofluoric acid, sulfur dioxide, and sulfuric acid, approximately 75 cubic meters (2,649 cubic feet) of acidic wastewater plus about one ton of radioactive waste residue (containing water).” – Chinese Society of Rare Earths

CONCLUSION: FAVORABLE BUT NOT FITTING• General trends prove extremely favorable to rare earth companies in the future

including increased demand due to China’s changing role, economic recovery and growth, and increase in green technologies

• Lack of financial information makes investing in rare earth companies purely a speculative move and therefore not in the interests of the club

• Forecasting supply and demand in REEs are difficult when considering the enormous sums put into R&D and intellectual property development

• Recommendation: Potential buy on Molycorp but only after production in Q4 is released and exceeds expectations. There is a definite need in the market to be filled, but it cannot yet be determined how that need will be filled (whether it be through a new supplier in place of China or just developing newer technology which does not need REEs) or who will be the one filling it.

SOURCES

• http://www.getbuckyballs.com/rare-earth-metals-magnet-balls/

• http://www.businessinsider.com/will-your-rees-suffer-molycorp-contagion-chris-berry-advises-patience-2012-8

• http://phys.org/news/2012-08-toshiba-dysprosium-free-samarium-cobalt-magnet-heat-resistant.htm

• http://phys.org/news/2012-08-toshiba-dysprosium-free-samarium-cobalt-magnet-heat-resistant.htm

• http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/33250/rare-element-reports-community-relations-activities-33250.html

• http://geology.com/usgs/ree-geology/

• http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/19/201667.html

• http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/smart-takes/the-morning-briefing-rare-earths/28452

• http://www.slideshare.net/Tehama/technology-minerals-the-rare-earths-race-is-on-april-2011