rare earth elements and the green economy
DESCRIPTION
A summary of the interaction between rare earths and the green economy with 20 charts and 59 references.TRANSCRIPT
Will Lack of Rare Earths Kill the Green Economy..
Or Has Concern Over Rare Earths Jumped the Shark?
Eamon Keane BE, ME
September 2010
Get Ready to
DIE!!!!
2
Abstract A brief survey of the rare earth landscape is undertaken. Following this it is shown that concern over
rare earths limiting the development of wind and electric vehicles is overdone because there are
clear alternatives to neodymium magnets. A shortfall of terbium and europium, however, may slow
adoption of energy efficient lighting.
Comments and corrections are welcome. I’d like to thank in particular Gareth Hatch for his websites
TerraMagnetica, raremetalblog, and techmetalsresearch which are a rich source of information on
rare earths. Also, John Hykawy from Byron Capital Markets provided much of the inspiration for this.
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Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 3
Table of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... 3
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Rare Earth Backrgound ................................................................................................................... 5
3. Rare Earth Consumption ................................................................................................................. 7
4. Refining ......................................................................................................................................... 12
5. Will There Be Enough? .................................................................................................................. 13
6. Will the shortfall strangle the green economy? ........................................................................... 15
6.1. Dysprosium ........................................................................................................................... 15
6.2. Rare Earths and Wind ........................................................................................................... 15
6.3. Rare Earths and Hybrid/Electric Cars .................................................................................... 16
6.4. Rare Earths and Energy Efficient Lighting ............................................................................. 17
References ............................................................................................................................................ 17
Table of Figures Figure 1: Google results for “rare earth elements” ................................................................................ 4
Figure 2: Top 6 Rare Earth Elements [46] Figure 3: Game Over for Whom? [47] ............................. 4
Figure 4: Currently Producing Regions of the World (i.e. Not America) ................................................. 5
Figure 5: Baiyun-Obo, the Black Heart of the Green Economy? ............................................................. 6
Figure 6: Global REE Production 1986-2009 ........................................................................................... 6
Figure 7: Rest of World Demand for RE Salts, Oxides & Metals ............................................................. 7
Figure 8: 2008 Estimated Rare Earth Flows ............................................................................................ 7
Figure 9: Indicative rare earth flows for 2010 ........................................................................................ 8
Figure 10: REE Composition by End Use ................................................................................................. 9
Figure 11: Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores .................................... 9
Figure 12: Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores .................... 10
Figure 13: Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices .............................................. 11
Figure 14: Kvanefjeld Flow Sheet [20] .................................................................................................. 12
Figure 15: Forecast Global REE Demand 2010-2014 ............................................................................ 13
Figure 16: Surpluses and Deficits by Element in 2014 .......................................................................... 13
Figure 17: Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014 ................................................... 14
Figure 18: Demagnetisation Curve With and Without Dysprosium ..................................................... 15
Figure 19: Annual Wind Additions ........................................................................................................ 16
Figure 20: Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales ................................................................ 17
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1. Introduction Rare earths captured the popular imagination a year or two ago. Since then a bonfire of reports,
presentations and analyses have been published, with many generating more consulting fees than
light [1-45]. Figure 1 shows the uptrend in google entries for “rare earth elements”, and obviously if
it doesn’t exist on google, it is irrelevant.
Figure 1: Google results for “rare earth elements”
The rare earth story is compelling. By near unanimous consent, the narrative is that REEs are
“essential” [38], “indispensible” [30], or “crucial” [37] to every aspect of the green economy from
wind turbines to electric vehicles to energy efficient lighting. Further spice is added by those who
see REEs as the “New Great Game” [2]. Many military components require REEs from the M1A2
Abrams tank’s samarium cobalt magnet for navigation to the DDG-51 Hybrid Electric Drive Ship
Program’s reliance on neodymium magnets for electric assist propulsion [10]. And China controls the
supply. This leads to much hand-wringing, some based on mercantilist sentiment, others geo-
strategic, and yet more on envy of China’s autocratic regime.
Figure 2: Top 6 Rare Earth Elements [46] Figure 3: Game Over for Whom? [47]
I’ll discuss how “essential” REEs are later, however now I’ll add more fuel to the fire with yet another
summary of the REE situation.
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2. Rare Earth Backrgound A proviso is required for any figures shown here. Rare earth statistics are always “estimated”, the
data is sketchy (not least because some comes from China), and so most data comes with a +-15%
band. Figure 4 shows the regions where supply currently comes from [31, 33].
Figure 4: Currently Producing Regions of the World (i.e. Not America)
Figure 5 shows a picture from Google Earth of the mine at Baiyun-Obo [9]. The surrounding area has
become poisoned, as the ever reliable Daily Mail reports [5]:
“I was the first Western journalist to set foot inside the mine….. the new-found wealth has come at
an appalling environmental price, turning the town and the surrounding areas into a poisoned, arid
wasteland littered with unregulated refineries where the rare-earths are extracted from rocks…The
land is scarred with toxic runoffs from the refining process and pock-marked with craters and
trenches left by the huge trucks that transport the rocks across ice and mud. Rusting machinery lies
scattered along the valley floor, giving it the appearance of a war zone.”
China has used this environmental damage as a pretext for stricter export quotas. Production quotas
for environmental reasons might be entertained by the WTO, however export quotas are not. In
previous year, as a result of the cheaper costs of Chinese REE production, and due to China flooding
the market, other operators shut down. This is shown in Figure 6 (two data sets were fused: 1986-
2002 from [11] and 2002-2009 from [44]).
Figure 7 shows Chinese production along with the declining export quotas. A figure for 2010
expected demand from the west is also shown [39, 42]. It is important to stress that the Chinese
export quota is just for the upstream metals. Downstream, processed materials such as Neodymium-
Iron-Boron magnets can still be exported. This is part of an effort to encourage foreign
manufacturers to locate in China. As Figure 7 shows, however, this year there may be a shortfall in
demand for raw REEs in the West. This will be met, at least in part, by drawing down stockpiles [12].
Additionally, some enterprising Chinese may smuggle some out of the country.
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Figure 5: Baiyun-Obo, the Black Heart of the Green Economy?
Figure 6: Global REE Production 1986-2009
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Global REE Production 1986-2009 (kt/year)
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Figure 7: Rest of World Demand for RE Salts, Oxides & Metals
3. Rare Earth Consumption So where do all those REEs go? Figure 8 shows the estimated flows for 2008 [15]. Although Chinese
consumption is shown as 60%, this is only for the raw elements. Some of the downstream products
will still be exported to the west. Japanese industry is a large consumer of REEs, and so they are
almost beside themselves over the REE situation [41].
Figure 8: 2008 Estimated Rare Earth Flows
Figure 9 presents a chart I made showing the estimated 2010 global production capacity for each
element (from Byron Capital Market’s John Hykawy [18]), together with the rare earth usage
demand sectors projected by Lynas for 2010 [15]. Christian Hocquard, an economist at BRGM, put
together an excellent and comprehensive presentation on rare earths in May 2010 [15]. The
breakdown by application for magnets and phosphors comes from that presentation.
0102030405060708090
100110120130
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rest of World Demand for REE Salts, Oxides & Metals (i.e. not finished products) [kt/year]
Chinese Export Quota (Raw REs Only)
ROW Demand (incl. 2010 estimate)
Estimated Chinese Mine Output
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Figure 9: Indicative rare earth flows for 2010
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Figure 10 shows the data in brackets on the right hand side of Figure 9 in a more readable fashion
[15].
Figure 10: REE Composition by End Use
Figure 11 shows the breakdown of ores for most elements for currently producing mines and the
assays for mines which are mostly still fishing for capital [18, 39].
Figure 11: Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores
0%
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REE Composition By End Use
Other
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Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores
Yttrium
Dysprosium
Terbium
Europium
Neodymium
Praesodymium
Cerium
Lanthanum
Currently Producing Considered Feasible to Produce Before 2015
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You may have to squint a bit to see the components of dysprosium, terbium and europium. They are
shown more clearly in Figure 12.
Figure 12: Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores
Looking at Figures 9-12, a couple of observations are evident:
If the demand for magnets were to double, from the current 31.9kt to 63.8kt, and a 5%
dysprosium content is assumed, additional dysprosium demand of 1.6kt would be required.
The ore with the highest dysprosium content is Dubbo, at 2%. Therefore, in order to satisfy
demand, the other 98% must be mined also. In the case of Dubbo, this would release onto
the market: 16kt lanthanum, 30kt cerium and 11kt neodymium. Hence a market for an
additional 50% of cerium would have to be found. Based on the prices in Figure 9, while
dysprosium provides 13% of the mine’s revenue, cerium provides 31%. So, for the mine to
be viable, either growth in the use of cerium is required or else the price of dysprosium must
appreciate. For example, if the price of dysprosium triples to $900/kg, then the share of
dysprosium in overall revenue increases to 31%.
If the demand for phosphors doubles, from the current 8.1kt to 16.2kt, and a 4.6% terbium
content is assumed, additional terbium demand of 373 tonnes would be required. The only
mine with any appreciable amounts of terbium is Nechalacho, at 1.8%. Nechalacho only
plans to produce 5kt [18]. Hence this would provide 90 tonnes. The breakdown of revenue is
better for the specific ore at Nechalacho. This is shown in Figure 13. That still leaves 283
tonnes of terbium required (373-90). The next highest is Dubbo, at 0.3%. To output 0.283kt
of terbium, a market for a stonking 94kt of other rare earths is required, or about 75% of
2009 demand.
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Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores
Europium
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Currently Producing Considered Feasible to Produce Before 2015
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Figure 13: Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices
Lanthanum 11%
Cerium 28%
Praesodymium 3%
Neodymium 19%
Europium 4%
Terbium 19%
Dysprosium 11%
Yttrium 5%
Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices
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4. Refining Bertram Boltwood, 1905 [45]:
“In point of respectability your radium family will be a Sunday school compared with the rare earth
elements, whose chemical behaviour is simply outrageous. It is absolutely demoralizing to have
anything to do with them”
Refining (or reduction in mining lingo) is very important. Figure 11 shows the composition for 14
different ore compositions. Each one requires an individual, detailed flow sheet, their own reagents
and refining processes. An investor could do well to read the book “Extractive Metallurgy of the Rare
Earths” [11]. This is not your father’s extractive metallurgy. Whereas with gold, for example, you
might just add a bit of borax and soda and out it comes, rare earths are much more troublesome. I
won’t bore you with the details. Figure 14 shows an example flow sheet. It is dirty, requires lots of
water, heaps of chemicals and is very capital intensive. Capital intensive processes can be prone to
cost overruns and delays, which should be borne in mind for any companies with mine-to-market
strategies.
Figure 14: Kvanefjeld Flow Sheet [20]
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5. Will There Be Enough? There have been several forecasts made for future demand. Approximate data was derived from
Byron Capital Market’s own estimate [18] and the data contained in Oakdene Hollins’ May 2010
report “Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives” for others [34]. Figure 15 displays these demand
forecasts in the context of historic demand, using global mine production as a proxy.
Figure 15: Forecast Global REE Demand 2010-2014
From Figure 15 it can be observed that while the range of projections is 160-200kt/year, if demand
follows its historic pattern, it would only reach 140kt/year. Faster demand growth is expected
principally due to the requirements of the “green economy”.
Based on their respective assumptions about which mines became operational, and those mines’
constituents, Figure 16 shows the respective surpluses and deficits forecast.
Figure 16: Surpluses and Deficits by Element in 2014
y = 3.6078x - 7127.9 R² = 0.891
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Terbium and dysprosium are displayed on their own in Figure 17 for clarity.
Figure 17: Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014
From Figure 16, it can be seen that one element about which hands need not be wrung is cerium.
This is good news for, from Figure 9, glass additives, automotive catalysts and polishing powder. In
all but Lynas’ conjecture, lanthanum will be fine also. This is reassuring for NiMH batteries,
mischmetal for flint and ceramics.
But what about those pesky elements terbium and dysprosium? GWMG, for example, forecasts a
deficit of 800 tonnes for dysprosium, or half what is consumed currently. IMCOA projects a deficit of
200 tonnes of terbium, or 67% of 2010 demand. Will they strangle the green economy in its crib?
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Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014 (kt/year)
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6. Will the shortfall strangle the green economy?
6.1. Dysprosium Dysprosium is essential to give neodymium magnets resistance to demagnetisation at high (120-180°C) service temperatures. The seminal 1984 paper announcing neo magnets was recently republished [40]. It contains Figure 18 which shows the demagnetisation curve contained in [40]. The effect of dysprosium is to weaken the magnet slightly (y axis), but to increase its intrinsic coercivity significantly (x axis). In enclosed spaces where it is difficult to cool – such as motors in cars – this is very important. However there is still uncertainty as to the mechanism by which dysprosium imparts this higher intrinsic coercivity [48], and a greater understanding may allow for reduced use of dysprosium.
Figure 18: Demagnetisation Curve With and Without Dysprosium
6.2. Rare Earths and Wind Vestas, which had a 36% market share of the European 2010 H1 offshore installations [49], is stated
by the New York Times to use dysprosium in its upcoming direct drive model [50]. However this is
likely a design oversight, because in an excellent article at renewable energy world [51], it is stated
of wind generators:“operating temperatures inside the generator rotor must be limited to a maximum
of 80°C in order to retain magnetic properties”. Dysprosium will boost this range to 120-180°C, and
thus the article implies that other operators do not require dysprosium, indicating that Vestas can
adapt.
Direct drive generators increase the reliability of turbines as they reduce the number of parts by up to
50% [52]. This is very useful for offshore turbines where maintenance is costly and there are narrow
weather windows for servicing. Whether Permanent Magnet Generators (PMGs) increase power
efficiency is debatable. Adolfo Robello of Indgar’s study comparing traditional DFIGs with the
permanent magnet variety concluded [51]: “The study was performed for a client and results clearly
indicated that the DFIG combination showed superior total efficiency performance over the entire
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speed range.” Nevertheless, PMGs as an engineering solution are very elegant and more compact
than their counterparts. The Chief Technology Officer of Siemens thinks they are “the future” [52].
However wind companies are all fully aware of supply issues, and are reluctant to move to China as
they would be forced to partner with a Chinese company.
There are many figures quoted regarding how much neodymium a wind turbine contains. I am going
to go with what renewable energy world [51] says:
“Industry sources quote, for instance, that the 60 kW fast speed electric motor fitted in a Toyota Prius
hybrid vehicle contains at least 0.5 kg of NdFeB magnet material. For a PM-type generator fitted in a
5 MW direct drive wind turbine, these same sources quote a figure of up to 200 kg of NdFeB per MW
power rating, around one tonne per machine. This is a much higher quantity compared to the
relatively light and compact fast speed systems.”
Two-hundred kg NdFeB per MW translates into approximately 70kg Nd2O3/MW, or 70 tonnes per GW.
Up until now, very few turbines have used permanent magnets, with demand of only 3 or 4 tonnes
[17], suggesting present demand of less than 100MW per year. Figure 19 shows the historical and
projected wind turbine additions [53, 54]. In 2014, if half the wind turbines were PMG, a requirement
of 2.1kt/yr of neodymium oxide would be required (70*30). From Figure 9, this is 10% of current
neodymium production capacity. Wind turbine demand for neodymium is highly unlikely to have a
50% market share by 2014, as it takes time to build factories and road test the technology. 20% may
be a realistic figure, which only entails a requirement of about 1kt/yr. Furthermore, there is always a
backstop technology – the traditional DFIG – which can, and I argue will, step in should any shortfall
in neodymium appear.
Figure 19: Annual Wind Additions
6.3. Rare Earths and Hybrid/Electric Cars From the quote above [51], electric vehicles require “at least 0.5kg NdFeB” for a 60kW motor. Using
0.6kg NdFeB for a 60kW motor, this translates to a requirement of 10g NdFeB/kW, or
3.5gNd2O3/kW. The limiting material here will be dysprosium, which is added at about 5% by weight
[55]. Hence this translates to a requirement of 0.5g Dy2O3 /kW (600*0.05/60). 2009 production
capacity of 1.6kt dysprosium would hence allow for approximately 3.2billion kW of motor
(1.6*1000*1000*1000/0.175). A million cars, at an average 70kW motor, require 0.07bn kW, or 2%
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of dysprosium supply. Figure 20 shows the historical sales of hybrid electric vehicles [56]. In 2014,
electric sales of 3.5m vehicles may require 7% of dysprosium production capacity.
Figure 20: Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales
Furthermore, Hitachi, on September 10th 2010, announced they have developed an alternative
motor with ferrite which “works at almost the same performance level - but with power consumption
running at 10 percent lower” [57]. It still has to be scaled up to the 50kW size, but in time it will.
Furthermore, there is the same technology was used in the EV-1 and is used in the Tesla Roadster
[58] - the humble AC motor.
6.4. Rare Earths and Energy Efficient Lighting In fluorescent light bulbs, the red, green and blue phosphors contain rare earths. The red phosphor
is almost entirely yttrium and europium. The blue phosphor contains approximately 10% terbium,
while the blue phosphor contains less than 5% europium [6]. The DOE has introduced a standard for
fluorescent lightbulbs. Its analysis shows that at most 11% of global terbium, europium and yttrium
supply would be required to meet the standard in the United States in 2012 [6].
This is a significant amount, in the region of 30 tonnes terbium and 30 tonnes europium, which will
clearly be in short supply if Figure 17 is correct. A more detailed analysis of what sector has the
greatest utility for a short supply is required. From Figure 9, it can be seen that fluorescent lamps
account for half of phosphor REE demand, with the rest being screens. It thus seems very likely that
energy efficient lighting will have to curtail its projected rapid growth, at least until a mine with high
enough terbium and europium is found. Neo materials’ CEO suggests they have found just such a
mine, with “very high concentrates of terbium and dysprosium” [59].
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Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales (million units/year)
Historical
Approx Projection for HEVs+ PHEVs + Evs By GoldmanSachs
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