kevin m. wilson, chfc , phd president/ceo/cio
DESCRIPTION
Monthly Market Review “How To Swim With The Sharks” April 19, 2012. Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO. Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst. Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS VP Wealth Management. Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhDPresident/CEO/CIO
Dheenu Sivalingam, MBAAVP/CCO/Senior Analyst
1314 E. Superior StreetSuite 2Duluth, MN 55805
Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062
Fax: 218-464-4397Email: [email protected]
www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com
Monthly Market Review
“How To Swim With The Sharks”April 19, 2012
Ted A. Pavlovich, WMSVP Wealth Management
11
![Page 2: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
INTRODUCTION
TED A. PAVLOVICH
2
![Page 3: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
BLUE WATER’S MOVE TO 1405 MEDICAL ARTS BUILDING, 324 W. SUPERIOR ST., DULUTH MN 55802 IN MAY, 2012
KEVIN M. WILSON3
![Page 4: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Blue Water’s NewHome
4
![Page 5: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
BRIEF MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT
TED A. PAVLOVICH
5
![Page 6: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Perspective: Market Cycles Within The LT Bear Market
13 years
6
![Page 7: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Relative Valuations & Market History Serve As GuidesWhen Assessing Risk
![Page 8: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Three-Year Rally Is Capable Of Continuing
![Page 9: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
S & P 500 Moving Average Indicates Short Term Trouble
![Page 10: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OUR STOCK PICKING DISCIPLINE IN BRIEF
DHEENU V. SIVALINGAM
10
![Page 11: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing Always insist on a margin of safety This time is never different Be patient and wait for the fat pitch Be contrarian (market consensus often wrong) Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a
function of volatility Be leery of leverage Never invest in something you don’t
understand11
![Page 12: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
BWCA Stock Discipline
Intrinsic Value:The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This is generally how we pick stocks.
12
![Page 13: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Risk/Reward Evaluation is critical determinant of long-term returns
13
![Page 14: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
HOW TO SWIM WITH THE SHARKS
KEVIN M. WILSON14
![Page 15: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
This Is Either A Dolphin Singing Or The Dow(Investors Need To Limit The Impact Of Volatility)
15
![Page 16: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Longer Holding Periods May Help Combat Volatility, But There Are Also Dangerous Secular Bear Markets
![Page 17: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Dividends Reduce Risk Over Time
![Page 18: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
P/E Valuations Predict Returns
![Page 19: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Over-Bought + Over-Bullish Syndrome Precedes Losses
Blue =Syndrome
Drawdown
S & P 500
![Page 20: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
A Market Controlled By Money Printing
LTRO
![Page 21: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
“Helicopter Ben” Approach Will Continue, But Is Ineffective
![Page 22: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
22
KEVIN M. WILSON
-Market Sharks (Traders, Speculators) In Control Courtesy of the Fed & ECB
-European Crisis, Economic Data, & Earnings May Cause Big Doubts By Summer
-We like High Quality, Dividends, And Value Stocks As Foils To Market Volatility
-If Market Sells Off, Risk/Reward Will Be VG & Huge Opportunity Awaits
![Page 23: Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062813/56816693550346895dda73f3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed.
Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters.
Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor. Not FDIC insured. No bank guarantee. May lose value. Not a deposit. Not insured by any federal government agency. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is not affiliated with National Bank of Commerce or NATCOM Bancshares, Inc.
Disclaimer
2323