July, 17 2007

“Low Internet Diffusion in Africa”

The Networked Communications Environment

Alex Gakuru

ICT Consumers Association of Kenya

gakuru@gmail.com

July, 17 2007

1 October, 2 0 0 6 The World at Night

"The people that compiled the photo see all the places that are rich enough to have bright city lights; I see the places where those of us that work in technology aren't done yet. A lot of my work has to do with making the Internet work there too." Fred Baker- Internet Society. http://www.isoc.org

July, 17 2007

Introduction

• Infrastructure & Hardware

• Political Environment

• Regulatory Environment

• Economics and markets

• Technology Perspectives

• Submarine Fibre Cables

July, 17 2007

Infrastructure & Hardware• Infrastructure Ownership and Access• High Infrastructure Access Costs• Incumbents “Nationalism” Protection• Dilapidated/Disproportionate Invest. • New Entrants Rebuilding Afresh• Co-location Challenges/ Incentives• Hardware Costs (PCs, Routers, Mobile…)• Network & Hardware/ Driving Software• Economic cost of slow Internet -Urgent

July, 17 2007

Political Environment• Dictators Fear “BAD” new Transparent Internet

1."Access to computers should be unlimited and total.“2 "All information should be free.“3."Mistrust authority - promote decentralization.“4."You can create art and beauty on a computer."5."Computers can change your life for the better."

• Negotiating the Net in Africa -Univ. of Maryland • In-depth analyses of Internet diffusion (Tanzania,

Kenya ,Rwanda, Ghana, South Africa, Guinea Bissau)

• Have/Forced to Change “Political Culture”• Policy/implementation disconnects deliberate?

July, 17 2007

Regulatory Environment• Regulators or “Independent” Licensors?• High License “Revenues” vs. “Facilitative”• Legislative Information Challenges• Role of Parliamentary “ICT” Committees• (Absent) Internet Diffusion Reviews• High-Level Internet Leaderships• Kenya Case Study – Kibaki directives• BIG Q: To insist on “Universal Access” or Not?• Absent elec. justified?(Convenient Excuse?)• Poverty Divide: Internet for the Affluent

July, 17 2007

Regulatory Environment• Static to Dynamic regulatory approach shifts• Stop over protecting unprofitable models • Enhance CS/Professional Assoc. collaboration• Support community-based infrastructure• Encourage non-profit telcos (“FON”s Free ISM) • Conduct Internet Users Demand and Supply std• Hold Legislators Internet capacity building w/sps• Most of all, strengthen regulator independence• Interconnection “profits” unreal cost relation

July, 17 2007

Economics and Markets• Enter Innovative “Em. Markets” Investors• Align business themes > local aspirations

– Former Monopolies– Local Business leaders– National Policies/Priorities ….

• Find overwhelming locked-up demand• Offer Localised products and services• Cling to new-found revenue jewels• Africa’s Oligopolies ( Also seen in Mexico )• Barbarians at Kenya’s Gate• “Measured” liberalise–instant benefits

July, 17 2007

Economics and Markets• Blame them for exploiting Bus. opportunity? NO!• Form strange bedfellows – “midnight cartels”• Problem–Exposes vulnerable consumers/users• Need to Establish/Improve Consumer Protection• Consumer Protection -David vs. Goliath,Globally• Governments happy with Exchequer Contribution• Daily Telcos Rev vs eco. incomes/donor funds

injection (mobbing up hard-earned incomes high tariffs)

• Internet (and telecom) causing net poverty???• Argue high tariffs due infrt. invest.

July, 17 2007

Internet Users

• INTERNET USERS TODAY (17 Jul 2007) 1,154,358,778 http://www.internetworldstats.com/

July, 17 2007

Nurture Flourishing Internet• It took radio 38 years to get a market of 50

million people participating; • TV took 13 years to reach 50 million • Once the Internet was open to the general

public, the Internet made to the 50 million person audience in just 4 years

• Overwhelming demand exists, • Embrace internet else remain perpetually poor • Will and desire of the people unmet• New Connectivity Models Complement supply• “Old-School” business ecosystem survival?

July, 17 2007

Technological Dimensions1. Challenged users- human fear of the unknown (porn,

privacy,computes>consumer education)

2. Early Adapters Exclusive “Trade Secrets”

3. African IXPs History and passive govt support

4. Tech Skills Challenges(KENIC, AFNOG, AfriNIC, ISOC,

5. Converge Civil Society Internet Advocacy, (e.g. Hunan Rights, beyond “IG”

6. Any African Investments on Internet R&D? CSIRO Aus. Highest 2.4bits/s/Hz (6 GiG/s point –to-point wireless connection

7. Avoid digital dumps– Failed/obsolete tech/environment

July, 17 2007

Technological Dimensions1. Avoid digital dumps– Failed/obsolete tech/environment

2. Mesh Networking, P2PSIP, OLPC-Governments Position?

3. FOSS where Proprietary Software is prohibitive (Ubuntu)

4. Internet content development AND publishing challenges

5. Poor Awareness and Education

- Perhaps to retain market /segments

- Convergence Challenges

- Legal Environments/ Regulative Definitions

- Media Capacity Coverage Issues

- IT “Gurus” from out of this world

- African ICT Experts Hardly Publish

July, 17 2007

Fibre Eco-Politics 1. Internet bandwidth cartels (Shuttleworth urges telecoms

reform 24 February, 2006, http://www.tectonic.co.za/view.php?id=888 )

2. “Cartels" as they existed unable to deliver effective and affordable bandwidth to the continent -“Barbarians” interests

3. ADSL 128/32kbps- £70 pm (ke) 512/128 kbps £25/pm(uk)4. Local ISPs 540% bandwidth mark-up – CCK Market Study 5. SAT3, EASSy, TEAMS, SEACOM, (Terrestrial Nat. Fibres)6. Malaysia Multimedia Super Corridor - cost US$5.3 billion-KE?7. Unless checked, fear private interest TEAMS => high costs8. Africa’s hope pegged on Kenya’s TEAMS Fiber handling9. Few other KE inspirations (Transition, Economy, FOI...)10.Flourishing Gains and “comfortable” democracy?

July, 17 2007

Fibre Eco-Politics 1. TEAMS bandwidth pricing “new benchmark”2. Managed transparently =>Potential to save Africa’s

bandwidth costs3. SAT3 prices will go down upon TEAMS cheap bandwidth4. VSAT to remain (Far Flung, Backup–Asia Breaks Dec 2006)5. Terrestrial Fibre – “Open Access” mgmt by Ind Regulators6. Last mile(540% markup ISPs?, Telcos, or Community UAs)7. Community – driven last Mile initiatives benefits

1. Cost Recovery Basis ( non-profit)2. Mobile VoIP – Nokia N95 WiFi Feature Crippling3. Forster Competition (affordable Internet, and Voice) 4. Rural, Underserved (Equity, Basic Right to

communicate)5. Grassroots Skills Transfer – KE Community Fibre

July, 17 2007

Acknowledgements

• Fred Baker, ISOC (and NASA picture)

• Dr. Mary Muiruri - University of Maryland

• Prof. Tim Wu

• Asia Times, New York Times