julian r - biodiversity conservation in an era of change

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The Wallace Initiative: Biodiversity conservation in an era of change Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT Challenge Program on Climate Change and Food Security

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Presentation made during the last workshop on The Wallace Initiative, in Tyndall Centre, The University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

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Page 1: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

The Wallace Initiative:

Biodiversity conservation in an era of change

Julián Ramírez and Andy JarvisInternational Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT

Challenge Program on Climate Change and Food Security

Page 2: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

The Wallace Initiative framework:

1. Assessment of impacts of climate change on species distributions to:

– Determine refugia– Improve knowledge of risks of exceeding certain

levels of change by means of determining extinction rates

2. Map potential corridors for species3. Potential refugia, carbon dist., and design of

REDD mechanisms4. Driving of protected area design in the 21st

century5. Provide critical conclusions to aid the

development of adaptation plans

Page 3: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

1. Impact of climate change on species distributions

Data: GBIF inputs• Using 62,000 terrestrial plant taxa

– Local version of the GBIF database– Selecting species with at least 10 unique data

points– 67,039 species (15,215,524 occurrences)– Correcting georreferences

• Is the record in land or sea?• Is in the country/department/locality it says it is?• Is within the environmental niche of the species?

– 62,000 selected species (12 million occurrences)– Run for all these species

Page 4: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Assessing the GBIF database

• 44’706.505 plant records

• 33’340.008 (74,57%) with coordinates

• From those– 88.5% are geographically correct at two levels– 6.8% have null or incorrect country (incl. sea

plant species)– 4.7% are near the coasts but not in-land

Page 5: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Good records: 88.47% of total

Resulting Database

Page 6: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

An example from GPG2

IRRI COLLECTION

BEFOREAFTER

ADDING VALUE TO THE DATASET

Courtesy R. Hijmans & Jacob van Etten

Page 7: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Plus… automated georreferencing

Real locationAt <12km uncertainty

Page 8: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

The data: current and future climates

• Current climates from WorldClim– 19 bioclimatic indices

• Future climates from downscaled GCM outputs (via ClimGen)– 7 GCMs at 0.5 degree resolution– 2020s, 2050s, 2080s– SRES-A1B emission scenario– Same 19 bioclimatic indices– Now running, and awaiting results…

Page 9: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

The modeling approach• Maximum entropy as a very accurate niche modeling

technique• 10 or more points for each of the 62,000 taxa• 21 future projections (7 GCMs x 3 timeslices… but will project

over other SRES, RCP and AVOID scenarios)• Current: two extreme ‘adaptation’ scenarios

– Full adaptation– Null adaptation

• Measures of diversity (sp. richness) and area loss– Per country, region and globally

• Within Protected Areas• Overall

• Current extent of conserved biodiversity within protected areas (in situ gap analysis)

• How to make climate-smart conservation plans?

Page 10: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Modeling approach

• Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm– Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous

communities in the Amazon

Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates

NULL MIGRATION

UNLIMITEDMIGRATION

Potential habitatexpansion

NO ADAPTATION FULL ADAPTATION

Page 11: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

MaxEnt models performance

• Logistic deviation measures the difference between a perfect logistic fit (Ln 1 = 0) y the model’s fit (Ln p)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.00

0.12

0.35

0.70

1.16

1.74

2.44

3.25

4.18

5.23

6.39

7.67

9.06

10.5

812

.20

13.9

415

.80

17.7

819

.87

22.0

824

.40

26.8

429

.40

32.0

734

.86

37.7

640

.78

43.9

247

.18

50.5

454

.03

57.6

361

.35

65.1

969

.14

73.2

077

.39

81.6

886

.10

90.6

395

.28

100.

0410

4.92

109.

9211

5.03

120.

2612

5.60

131.

0713

6.64

1000

.0

Logistic deviation of test data

Per

cen

t o

f sp

ecie

s (%

)

P LogDev Performance0.1 4.61 Very poor model performance0.2 3.22 Poor model performance0.3 2.41 Poor model performance0.4 1.83 Marginal model performance0.5 1.39 Marginal model performance0.6 1.02 Good model performance0.7 0.71 Good model performance0.8 0.45 Very good model performance0.9 0.21 Very good model performance1.0 0.00 Perfect model performance

Page 12: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Comparing with other studies on plant diversity

Page 13: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: in situ gap analysis

• Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)

• Holding a great amount of biodiversity

Page 14: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: protected areas per region

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Maximum hotspot overall

Ma

xim

um

ho

tsp

ot

wit

hin

PA

s Complete representativeness

Average representativeness

UK

World

Mexico

US

South AfricaNorth Africa

Middle eastSaudi Arabia

West Africa

BrazilCurrent extent of in situ conservation

Some issues in highly diverse areas… Global biodiversity currently well conserved

Page 15: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: Current species richness

• Important hotspots in Latin America, Australasia and Central Africa well represented… but still missing something

CURRENT

Page 16: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

PERCENT CHANGE [null adaptation]

SD among GCMs

Page 17: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

PERCENT CHANGE [null adaptation]

SD among GCMs

BETTER CHANCES BUTGREATER UNCERTAINTIES

Page 18: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: changes within AVOID regions

• Changes in species richness under both migration scenarios

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

Re

st o

f Ce

ntr

al A

sia

Ind

on

esi

a

Ch

ina

Ca

na

da

Mid

dle

Ea

st

No

rth

Afr

ica

Jap

an

Ind

ia

Re

st o

f So

uth

Asi

a

So

uth

Afr

ica

Re

st o

f Ea

st A

sia

Po

lan

d

Wo

rld

We

st A

fric

a

So

uth

ern

an

d E

ast

Afr

ica

US

Au

stra

lia

Eu

rop

e

So

uth

Ko

rea

Re

st o

f Au

stra

lasi

a

So

uth

Am

eri

ca

Me

xico

Italy

Bra

zil

Ca

rib

be

an

Ge

rma

ny

UK

Ce

ntr

al A

me

rica

Fra

nce

Null migration

Unlimited migration

Page 19: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC

• No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions

• There are regions with gains in species richness, but fairly due to displacement of niches

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Percent of area with loss within PAs [UM]

Ch

an

ge

in s

pe

cie

s r

ich

ne

ss

wit

hin

P

As

[U

M]

Caribbean

Central America

France

Germany

Australia

ItalyMexico

South AmericaEurope West Africa

South KoreaBrazilMiddle EastUS

Page 20: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC

• Expected changes within protected areas (PAs) sometimes occur at a greater extent

• Current gaps in in situ conservation to be larger in changing climates

• Current protected areas to be strengthened, expanded, or re-located if necessary

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

-1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0

Change in species richness [NM]

Ch

ang

e in

sp

ecie

s ri

chn

ess

wit

hin

Pas

[N

M]

South America

Central America

France

Australasia

Germany

CaribbeanBrazil

US

Globe

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400

Change in species richness [NM]

Ch

ang

e in

sp

ecie

s ri

chn

ess

wit

hin

Pas

[N

M]

France

Central America

Germany Caribbean

South Korea

NULL MIGRATION

UNLIMITED MIGRATION

Page 21: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

How to make climate-smart conservation plans?

• Climate vulnerability

CURRENT 2050s %Change

Page 22: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Assessing threat level

• Anthropogenic activities threat ecosystems… and therefore, species

Recent Land Use Change

Oil/Gas extraction

Infrastructure development

Grazing pressure

Conversion to Agriculture

Accessibility

Page 23: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Landscape fragmentation and deforestation effect on biodiversity

• De 12,853,796 poblaciones (60,894 spp)– 315,590 pob. (2.5%) de 13,250 especies

(21.76%) estan en el Amazonas• Al menos una pob. de 1,662 especies (12.5%)

esta extinta debido a cambios en UT• 3.9% especies tienen mas de 5% de sus

poblaciones ahora extintas• 1.3% tienen mas de 10% y… 0.4% tinen mas que

20%

79.7%

18.0%

2.3%

Taxa outside the Amazon Taxa in degraded lands

Taxa outside degraded lands

From 2004 to mid-2009 [5.5 yrs]… Almost 2.5% of the Amazon’s biodiversity (the part we know) is under severe threat from LUC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Año

To

tal a

cu

mu

lad

o

Poblaciones

Especies

Page 24: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Current threat to ecosystems

Page 25: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

A half-day discussion after

Climate-stable refugia: Protected areas

Climate-stable refugia:

Restoration

Page 26: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

A half-day discussion after

Corridors through agriculture to enable movement of biodiversity

No future for biodiversity: Production

Page 27: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

A half-day discussion after

• Conservation is a matter of the the number of species and uniqueness

• Indigenous areas act as strong barriers to threats• Anthropogenic activities difficult conservation• Despite the strong threat from CC, there are areas

likely to remain stable• Conservation should be the focus in “climatically

stable” areas and under mid to low threat level• Restoration should focus in highly fragmented

landscapes with mid to high climate vulnerability• Adapting biodiversity needs to consider crop

suitability shifts as well

Page 28: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

In situ conclusions

• Protected areas function today, at least on paper• Under a changed climate however, they do not

effectively conserve biodiversity, even assuming maximum adaptation

• In situ conservation needs to be oriented under the context of climate change– Areas to be strengthened (more control)– Areas to be expanded– Areas to be re-located (if migration does occur)

• Enabling migration is critical: corridors between protected areas

• Redesigned functional landscapes also essential: Eco-efficient agriculture

Page 29: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Next steps on methods

• Some thoughts– Assessing uncertainties– Other SRES, AVOID and finally RCP

scenarios– Mammals, Reptiles, Aves (?), Amphibians– Intermediate migration scenarios… how to

assess species natural migrations?– “Acceptable” and expected extinction risks?

Page 30: Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

Next steps… analysis of policy implications

• Similarities/dissimilarities between regions– Do current criteria for PA selection stand up to climate

change?– What makes one protected area system more

effective than another in combating climate change? – What needs to be changed?

• Do we need a new conservation paradigm? More efficient systems? Or more coverage?

• Agricultural biodiversity needs to be assessed as well

• Timber species, forests… ecosystem-level analyses required