jrc mars bulletin crop monitoringin europejrc mars bulletin vol. 28 no 10 – 26 october 2020 5 1.3...

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 10 – 26 October 2020

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Warm and dry summer weather followed by abundant, but

sometimes excessive rainfall in the second half of the

analysis period, hampered field work in large parts of

Europe.

Warm and dry summer weather continued throughout the

first three weeks of September in most of Europe, which

led to a particularly distinct temperature accumulation

surplus in a wide belt from north to south in eastern

Europe, Turkey and eastern Mediterranean.

Abundant rainfall and a clear rain surplus were recorded

in the second half of the analysis-period in most parts of

central and western Europe and the central and eastern

Mediterranean region.

These wet conditions at the end of September and October

caused delays to the harvesting of summer crops as well

as to sowing activities in western and southwestern

France, the Benelux, southern Poland, eastern Czechia,

Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. For

winter rapeseed, the sowing window has come to an end.

For winter cereals, timely completion of the sowing

campaign is still possible in the coming weeks.

At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were

revised downwards, mostly based on a reanalysis of data

since the start of the season.

Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Sowing conditions 3. Country analysis 4. Crop yield forecasts 5. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 September to 20 October 2020

Pre-press version Issued: 26 October 2020

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 10

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

October 2020

Too dry, then too wet Rainfall brings mixed blessings to Europe’s drought hit regions


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1 Agrometeorological overview

1.1 Areas of concern

Warm and dry summer weather continued during the first

three weeks of September in most of Europe and led to a

distinct surplus in accumulated temperatures, particularly

in a wide belt from north to south in eastern Europe,

Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean region. In most of

these regions, the analysis period was the warmest in our

records (since 1979). Impacts on crops were very limited

because most summer crops were already in ripening

stage or beyond; however, in south-eastern Turkey, where

summer crops are planted late (after the harvesting of

winter crops), the grain-filling period was unfavourably

shortened.

A large rainfall deficit, with less than half of seasonal

values, was recorded in Portugal, southern and north-

eastern Spain, north-eastern Greece, eastern Turkey,

eastern Ukraine, and a large part of European Russia.

Abundant rainfall and a clear rain surplus was recorded,

mainly in the second half of the analysis period, in most

of France, northern Italy and regions along the western

side of the Apennines, the western Balkans, western

Greece, most of Austria, southern Poland, Czechia,

Slovakia, north-western Romania and western Ukraine.

These wet conditions at the end of September and in

October delayed harvesting of summer crops in western

and south-western France, the Benelux countries,

southern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary,

Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.

Rapeseed sowings were hampered in France, Romania,

Bulgaria and Ukraine, where dry summer conditions

prolonged into September, preventing timely sowing. In

general, the sowing window has come to an end, also for

late varieties. The sowing campaign of winter cereals

started mainly in dry conditions across Europe. While it

was concluded mostly in October in northern regions, it

was delayed in many western, central and eastern regions

– initially due to dry soil conditions for most of September,

and later due to overly wet conditions. Timely completion

of the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming

weeks. The current dry conditions are delaying sowing in

Portugal and southern Spain


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1.2 Meteorological review (1 September to 20 October 2020) Warmer-than-usual conditions in eastern, south-

eastern and northern Europe, European Russia and Turkey.

In the eastern part of this large region (i.e. east of Poland

and Hungary), daily mean temperatures 2-4°C (locally 4-6°C) above the LTA were observed. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded in the rest of this

large region and in some areas of Italy and northern

France, with daily mean temperature anomalies from

+0.5°C to +2°C. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions were observed

in southern France, some areas of Spain, northern Italy,

and northern UK. Daily mean temperature anomalies from

-2°C to -0.5°C were recorded.

The first three weeks of September were essentially a

continuation of summer, with dry and warm weather conditions in most of Europe. September, overall, was

the warmest on record both at the European and global

scale. More than seven hot days (with daily maximum

temperature above 30°C) were recorded in large regions

of western and south-eastern Europe. The second half of

the analysis period featured continued warm weather in

eastern Europe, while in western parts autumn arrived

with average to slightly below-average temperatures. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large

regions of Europe, mostly due to rainfall accumulated in

the second half of the analysis period (except for Finland,

Estonia, European Russia and Greece). The first three

weeks of September showed quite a contrasting picture,

with dry conditions in most parts of Europe except for the

Iberian Peninsula, Finland, northern Russia and Greece.

Across the entire analysis period, total precipitation

anomalies from 50% to 140% (locally higher) were

recorded in western France, Italy, Austria, along the

Balkans, England, the Scandinavian Peninsula, Finland and

Romania. Meanwhile, in a very large region of eastern

Europe, centred across Czechia and Slovakia, anomalies

higher than 140% of the LTA were observed. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in the

southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, Turkey, and the

southern part of European Russia. Total precipitation

anomalies mainly ranged from -50% to -100%. Storm Alex hit Europe at the end of September/beginning

of October, triggering heavy rainfall and floods in south-

eastern France/north-western Italy.


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1.3 Weather forecast (24 – 30 October)

Weather conditions will be dominated by a cyclonic disturbance over the central Mediterranean region at the beginning

of the forecast period that will favour precipitation in the Balkans, and by a trough developing north of the UK, deepening

towards the western Mediterranean region, moving towards Greece, and triggering intense precipitation events in south-

eastern Europe.

Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are expected in

the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and the

region of the Alps. Daily mean temperature anomalies of

-2°C to -0.5°C are forecast. Slightly-warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast

in northern France, the Benelux countries, Germany,

Czechia, the western Balkans, and northern Sweden. Daily

mean temperature anomalies of 0.5°C to 2°C are forecast. Considerably warmer-than-usual conditions are

expected in most of central-eastern, south-eastern, and

northern Europe including northern Germany, with daily

mean temperature anomalies of 2°C to 6°C (higher in the

Black Sea region). Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative

precipitation, are expected in large regions of the Iberian

Peninsula, eastern Europe and the eastern side of the

Black Sea. Wet conditions, with cumulative precipitation between

10 mm and 40 mm, are forecast in central Europe and the

Mediterranean region. Higher total precipitation values

(locally above 60 mm) are forecast in large regions of

south-eastern Europe, the Alps, north-western Spain, the

western coast of the UK, and southern Norway. The long-range weather forecast for November,

December and January points to likely occurring warmer-

than-usual conditions in the Mediterranean region (very

likely in the eastern Mediterranean region), in large

regions of eastern Europe/Russia, and in northern Europe.

Drier-than-usual conditions are likely to occur in the

Iberian Peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean region.


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2 Sowing conditions

Winter rapeseed Dry conditions prevented timely sowing in France and south-eastern Europe

Rapeseed sowings have been hampered in France,

Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, as dry summer conditions

continued into September. The dry conditions prevented

timely sowing. Conversely, conditions have been

favourable in Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic

countries, and a good start to the season is expected. The

cultivated area in these regions may somewhat

compensate for the decrease expected in those countries

exposed to the dry September conditions.

In France, dry soils observed in the main producing

regions, Centre and Champagne-Ardennes, hampered

sowings and contributed to a decrease in sown area.

Conditions were more favourable in western regions, with

rains at the end of August. Substantial rainfall has been

observed since the last dekad of September. However,

although this replenished soil moisture, field work was

interrupted and late sown varieties could not be sown

since the sowing window is now coming to an end.

In Germany, substantial rainfall was observed in the main

producing regions at the end of August, partly replenishing

soil moisture after a dry period. The rain stopped during

the second dekad of September, thus allowing farmers to

proceed with sowing. Substantial rainfall was also

observed at the end of September, which will ensure a

good start to the season and emergence. Conditions have

been particularly favourable for mid- and late-season

varieties.

Similarly, in Poland, sowing conditions have been good.

Whilst there were several days in September without

substantial rainfall, a rain surplus observed from mid-

August compensated for this. However, although the start

to the season was beneficial, recent heavy rainfall (30-40 mm on 13 October) has saturated soils, and some

damage is to be expected.

In Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic countries, substantial

rainfall was observed towards the end of August and

beginning of September, followed by several days without

any rainfall. Farmers benefited from this window to

proceed with sowing, while the rain observed at the end of

September and beginning of October ensured a good start

to the season.

In the region of the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Romania and

south-western Ukraine, dry conditions did not allow timely

sowing, and as the sowing window has come to an end,

sowing intentions could not be fully realised. A difficult

start to the season is to be expected.

Conditions in Hungary have been beneficial, but the low

yield for rapeseed last year dissuaded many farmers from

cultivating rapeseed.

Winter cereals (soft wheat, winter barley, rye, triticale) Too dry and too wet conditions delayed sowing across Europe

The sowing campaign of winter cereals started mainly in

dry conditions across Europe. While it was mostly

concluded in October in northern regions, It was delayed in

many western, central and eastern regions – initially due

to dry soil conditions for most of September, and later due

to overly wet conditions in October. Timely completion of

the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming weeks.

In the Baltic countries, the sowing of winter cereals was

completed by the end of September, within the optimal

window and with favourable conditions for emergence.

Similarly, in Sweden and Denmark, sowing progressed well

during the dry September, and the rainfall in October

created optimal conditions for early growth. In Finland, the

unstable weather of September caused delays to winter

sowing, which could still be mostly concluded in October

with satisfactory emergence.

In Ireland, the Netherlands (except in the south), Germany

and the United Kingdom, sowing was able to progress well

during September despite the dry weather and, although

slowed down by heavy rainfall at the end of September

and beginning of October, was able to recover in the

second dekad of October. In these countries, the variable

rainfall during the review period allowed planting to

continue mostly under favourable conditions. Emergence

was slowed by the colder weather of October.

In France, the southern part of the Benelux countries, and


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Poland, field preparation could start after the dry

September, but heavy and frequent rainfall delayed the

sowing campaign. Similarly, in Slovakia, eastern Czechia,

Slovenia and Croatia, overly wet conditions complicated

field preparation and sowings.

In Hungary – and to a lesser degree in Bulgaria and

Romania – sowing was delayed by the unfavourable dry

soil conditions until early October, when heavy rainfall

caused further delays.

In Ukraine, the sowing of winter wheat and barley was

delayed by dry conditions that occurred particularly in the

south-west, although soil conditions slightly improved

with the rainfall of October.

In Spain and Portugal, sowing usually starts by mid-

October, and the current dry conditions could delay

sowings in southern Spain and Portugal.

In Italy and Greece, the optimal sowing window for cereals

begins in November.

For durum wheat, it is still early for sowing in all the

producing EU countries. First sowing operations usually

start during the last week of October.


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3 Country headlines

3.1 European Union

France One difficult cropping season after another

While warm and dry weather prevailed during the first and

second dekads of September, temperatures dropped

below seasonal values around 20 September,

accompanied by rainy weather with cumulative rainfall

exceeding the LTA.

Although the harvest of most summer crops is completed, the heavy rainfall observed from 20 September onwards

delayed the harvest of late-grown grain maize, sugar beet

and potatoes. Yield forecasts for summer crops have been

maintained close to or below the average for the last two

years. There is still some uncertainty regarding final yields,

especially as sugar beet seems to be negatively impacted

by yellowing, which is not considered in our model. While

a disappointing season is ending, there is also currently a

difficult start to the next winter cropping season, with

some strong similarities so far to the conditions observed

last year. Again, dry weather was not favourable for

rapeseed sowing. Sowings of winter wheat started, but

were first delayed by the dry weather, then the rainy

weather observed since 20 September stopped most field

work.

Germany Despite some bottlenecks, sufficient progress in sowing

September continued to be dry and mild, even with a few

hot days, until about the end of the month when frequent

and abundant rain set in and initiated a period of unstable

weather, with decidedly cooler temperatures following the

normal course of temperature decrease in autumn. This

course of weather allowed for good initial progress in

harvesting and sowing, despite very dry topsoil conditions

in places, but it was then interrupted by the October rains.

These rains are badly needed to replenish soil moisture

and aquifers, following another dry season.

For winter cereals, there is still sufficient time to complete

sowing activities within a suitable window if favourable

conditions persist in the coming weeks; nevertheless,

problems are reported in Baden Württemberg in relation

to the sowing of winter barley. Our September yield

forecasts were essentially maintained, with a slight

downward revision for sugar beet. Overall, the yield

forecasts are slightly better than last year’s mediocre

level and are very close to the 5-year average.


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Poland Wet conditions delay harvest of grain maize

The analysis period was characterised by wetter-than-usual conditions (with rainfall > 30% above the seasonal

average) in major parts of the country. The northern

regions were the exception, and here cumulative rainfall

was around or below the average. Rainfall that started at

the end of September and continued in October resulted

in overly wet topsoil conditions in many regions, as well as

local inundations. Temperatures oscillated around the LTA.

Sowing of winter crops and harvesting of green maize,

potatoes and sugar beet advanced well in September.

Rains that commenced at the end of September delayed

drying down of maize kernels and impaired the onset of

grain-maize harvesting operations. Inevitably, sowing of

remaining winter cereals was also delayed. Harvesting of

sugar beet, which started in mid-September, provided very

variable yield results and unusually low sugar levels. Rainy

weather favoured the development of fungal diseases in

sugar beet, which are observed in many plantations.

We maintain our yield forecasts similar to the ones

reported in the September Bulletin.

Ireland Winter sowing progressing well under adequate soil conditions

Temperatures were above average until the second dekad

of September, after which it remained unusually cold.

Rainfall was close to seasonal values in the north and east

of the country, but scarce for this time of year in the south.

The difficult harvest was concluded during the second

dekad of September. Winter sowing started with

favourable soil conditions and within the optimal window.

Sowing progressed better in the south of the country than

in the other areas. This is mostly due to the heavier rainfall

in the northern and eastern areas at the end of September

and beginning of October. Sowing progress recovered at

the end of the review period. The harvesting of green

maize is under way without significant problems.

The yield forecasts remain practically unaltered compared

to the September issue of the Bulletin.


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Spain and Portugal Portugal and southern Spain still dry; favourable conditions elsewhere

During the analysis period, rainfall was well above

average in Castilla y León, which to a large extent was due

to a single event on 20 October. Likewise, Central Portugal

also benefited from very recent rainfall. Below-average

rainfall was recorded in Castilla la Mancha, Extremadura

and Andalucía. Here, the water deficit accumulated since

spring continues, and water levels in the reservoirs in

Andalucía remain far below the LTA. In Portugal, rainfall

was 20-50% of the LTA for the period 1 September to 20

October – among the driest periods recorded.

Our yield forecasts remain essentially unchanged. For

potatoes, our yield forecast remains average for Spain and

above average for Portugal. Forecast yields for grain

maize and green maize are maintained around the 5-year

average, as dry conditions have both favoured ripening

and allowed easy field access and harvesting.

Harvesting conditions are also favourable for sunflowers,

and the harvest of grain maize is finishing successfully in

most regions. At the same time, sowing and emergence

conditions for rapeseed are somewhat hampered by dry

soils. Castilla y León excepted, non-irrigated winter crops

such as rye, winter wheat, winter barley, and also sugar

beet in Andalucía, need rainfall in the coming weeks to

enable sowing/planting and improve conditions for crop

establishment.

Italy Positive expectations for summer crops confirmed

In Italy, the analysis period was generally wet in all the

northern regions and along the Tyrrhenian coast.

Precipitation was mainly concentrated in October, with unusual rainfall episodes on 2 October in Liguria and

Piemonte (74 mm and 65 mm in a day, respectively). Daily

temperatures were around or slightly above the LTA in

September, then gradually decreased to 1-2°C below the

average in October. Overall, the season was favourable for

summer crops. In Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia Romagna;

grain and green maize benefited from the alternating wet

and hot weather throughout the growing and reproductive

periods. Remote sensing and crop model indicators depict

above-average biomass for soybean districts in Veneto

and Friuli Venezia Giulia, and for the sunflower cultivated

areas of Marche, Toscana and Umbria. Our forecasts for

the country are confirmed above the 5-year average. The

optimal period for the sowing of winter cereals will begin

in late October.


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Hungary High yield expectations for summer crops

In the period 1-25 September, Hungary was characterised

by scarce rains and 2-3°C warmer-than-usual thermal

conditions. Later, temperatures approached near-average

conditions and precipitation increased considerably.

During the review period as a whole, cumulative rainfall typically reached 50-100 mm in the southern half of

Hungary, though northern regions received 100-200 mm.

Heavy, locally excessive, rains on 12-13 October caused

floods and water logging, primarily in north-eastern

Hungary.

Dry topsoil conditions in late August and the first two

dekads of September delayed the sowing and emergence

of rapeseed. A decrease in rapeseed sowing area is

probable. Unequal crop development and heterogeneous

crop stands are likely, except along the western border in

areas with better water supply. The sowing campaign for

winter cereals started in late September, but is currently

hampered by wet conditions.

Harvest of sunflowers, potatoes and sugar beet

progressed well. The grain maize harvest seems to be

more problematic, due to recent rain and increased risk of

fusarium infections. The yield forecast for grain maize

was maintained at a very high level. After a re-analysis of

this summer’s weather conditions, the yield forecasts for

sunflowers and root crops were revised slightly

downwards, but remain decidedly positive.

Romania Low yields for grain maize and sunflowers

Considering the review period (1 September – 20 October)

as a whole, there was a positive thermal anomaly reaching

2.5-3.5°C in the eastern regions (the highest in our

records, since 1979), while elsewhere an anomaly of 1.5-

2.5°C prevailed.

Sparse precipitation was experienced in most of Romania

until 25 September: typically, only 10-60% of the LTA (0-

18 mm) rainfall was recorded. Only Sud-Muntenia and

some adjacent areas received substantial precipitation

(20-50 mm) during this dry spell. In late September, a wet

period began and rainfall totals reached 50-150 mm,

except for some south-eastern areas which still remained

drier than usual.

The harvest of summer crops progressed well in

September, but frequent and abundant rains have

hampered it since late September. Overly dry conditions

made soil preparation difficult and energy-intensive.

Conditions for sowing and early growth of rapeseed were

also below optimal. The sowing campaign of winter

cereals is delayed due to current rains.

The yield forecast for grain maize was revised further

downwards, due to the drought of this summer, which

affected the main producing regions. The yield outlook for

sunflowers and other summer crops is also weak.


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Bulgaria Delayed sowing campaign

Very warm weather characterised the review period (1

September – 20 October), resulting in a positive thermal

anomaly of 2-4°C. This period is among the warmest in

our climate archive since 1979. Precipitation occurred in

the first five days of September and particularly after 5

October, while the period in between was characterised by

significant rainfall deficit. Considering the period as a

whole, precipitation totals reached 60-100 mm in the

northern half of Bulgaria, while the southern regions

received only 40-70 mm.

Dry weather conditions allowed good advancement of the

harvest in September, but abundant rains in October

caused some delays to its completion; however, it is close

to conclusion. The yield forecast for grain maize was

revised further downwards to a very low level, in light of

the unfavourable growing conditions during this cropping

season. The outlook for sunflowers was maintained at a

below-average level. Dry topsoil conditions delayed the

sowing of rapeseed and also hampered emergence and

early crop development. The sowing campaign for winter

cereals is probably also significantly delayed, although soil

moisture conditions improved in October.

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Frequent rainfall causing delays to sowing of winter cereals

The analysis period was characterised by warmer-than-

usual weather, with temperatures between 0.5°C and 2°C

above the LTA. Western Czechia remained essentially dry

during the first two dekads of September. This period was

followed by frequent, regionally intensive, rainfall events

in Slovakia, Austria and eastern Czechia. Central and

southern Austria and large parts of Slovakia recorded

more than 200 mm of rainfall during the overall analysis

period. This caused soil moisture saturation and

waterlogging in some regions.

The yield forecast for grain maize in Czechia was revised

slightly downwards, due to the continued drier-than-usual

summer in north-western Czechia (especially Severozapad

region). The minor downward revision of the yield forecast

for grain maize in Slovakia, on the other hand, is mainly a

consequence of potential harvest losses due to frequent

rainfall at the end of September and in the first half of

October. The rainfall also caused delays to field

preparation and sowing of winter cereals. The weather in

the coming weeks will be crucial for finalising both the

harvest of summer crops and the sowing campaign of

winter cereals.


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Denmark and Sweden Beneficial weather conditions for harvest and sowing

The weather was slightly drier and warmer than usual over

the analysis period. This benefited both harvest and winter

crop sowings.

Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of September is

slightly below the LTA in Denmark and Sweden. The

analysis period was also characterised by higher-than-

usual temperatures, with the last dekad of September and

first dekad of October being 2-3°C above the LTA. The dry

periods observed from August onwards have been

favourable to the harvest of winter and spring crops, and

benefited the sowing of winter cereals. Sufficient rainfall

ensured emergence of the newly sown crops. The harvest

of winter crops and spring cereals is finished, and yield

forecasts have been maintained substantially above the

5-year average for most crops, although slightly below

last year. The lower yields compared to last year are

mainly explained by the dry conditions observed this

spring.

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Autumn sowing complete, with good establishment

Temperatures exceeded the LTA, particularly during the

last two dekads of September, which were the warmest in

our records (kept since 1979) for the Baltic countries and

the second warmest for the southern areas of Finland. In

the Baltic countries, rainfall totals were below average

across the period and also unevenly distributed: intense

rainfall was concentrated during the first dekad of

September and the last dekad of the review period. In

Finland, precipitation was variable across the country, with

the heaviest rains falling in the central part of the country.

In the Baltic countries, sowing of winter cereals had been

completed by the end of September, within the optimal

time window and with good emergence. The unstable

weather of September continued to characterise the

spring cereal harvest in Finland and delayed winter

sowings, which had nevertheless concluded by October

with satisfactory emergence. The harvesting of potatoes,

sugar beet, and grain maize was ongoing without

significant problems. The yield forecasts remain

practically unchanged compared to the September

Bulletin, but were revised upwards for sugar beet in

Finland due to beneficial rainfall.


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Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg Dry September and wet October hamper harvesting and sowing

Relatively dry conditions continued until about 22

September, when frequent (almost daily) and abundant

rain set in, which continued until about 11 October. As a

consequence, harvesting of sugar beet and potatoes and

the sowing of winter cereals – which had initially been

hampered by dry topsoil conditions (especially in

Luxembourg, Belgium and southern parts of the

Netherlands, where August rain had also been below

average) – incurred further delays due to overly wet

conditions. Conditions improved at the end of the review

period, allowing field activities to resume at full speed

once excessive soil wetness was drained. For winter

cereals, there is still sufficient time to complete sowing

activities within a suitable window if favourable conditions

persist in the coming weeks. In the case of potatoes and

sugar beet, the excessive wetness and harvesting delays

will mainly translate into quality loss.

Our September yield forecasts were essentially

maintained, with a slight downward revision for potatoes

in both Belgium and the Netherlands. Overall, the yield

forecasts are very similar to last year’s mediocre level and

the 5-year average.

Greece and Cyprus Overly wet conditions weaken maize yield expectations

In Greece, wet and warm weather prevailed during the

review period. Rainfall was unequally distributed in space

and time. Cumulative precipitation was 100-150 mm

above average in most of the central and western regions;

while Central Macedonia (to the north) received 50-100

mm less than expected. However, the lack of rainfall in

Central Macedonia was compensated for in the summer

crops, as these are predominantly irrigated. Rainfall

events were unevenly distributed and occurred mainly on

18 September and 10 October. This unconventional

pluviometry was caused by ‘medicane’ (Mediterranean

hurricane) Ianos1, which was also responsible for floods2

along the valley of Thessaly. These led to delays in maize

harvesting and localised maize yield losses.

The harvest of summer crops in Greece has generally

progressed well this season, although it has not been fully

completed yet. The sowing campaign for winter wheat

began in early October without constraints. Our yield

1 https://www.cmcc.it/article/the-medicane-ianos-fingerprint-as-sweeps-across-greece 2 https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSR465

forecasts are revised only slightly downwards for green

and grain maize and remain above the 5-year average.

This is to account for both the negative impact of the

extreme weather, but also the positive growth conditions

observed in the northern maize districts. Yield forecasts

are confirmed for all other summer crops.

https://www.cmcc.it/article/the-medicane-ianos-fingerprint-as-sweeps-across-greece

https://www.cmcc.it/article/the-medicane-ianos-fingerprint-as-sweeps-across-greece

https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSR465


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Slovenia and Croatia Recent rainfall has interrupted the sowing of winter cereals

The first two dekads of September were warmer than

usual and mainly dry, with the last heatwave of the

season in coastal and eastern Croatia reaching maximum

temperatures up to 34°C. This period was followed by

temperatures around the seasonal average and frequent,

regionally also intensive, rainfall events, especially in

Slovenia and western Croatia. While in eastern Croatia

total rainfall for the analysis period remained roughly 10-

30% below the LTA, above-average cumulates were

experienced elsewhere. Western Slovenia and coastal

Croatia regionally recorded more than 300 mm, which is

more than double the LTA.

While sunflower harvesting has been mainly concluded,

the grain maize harvesting campaign has been interrupted

in Slovenia and central Croatia by frequent rainfall events

starting at the end of September. Furthermore, heavy

rainfall led locally to waterlogging and has been causing

significant delay in winter cereal sowing in both Slovenia

and Croatia. The weather in the following weeks will be

crucial for finalising the harvest of grain maize and the

sowing of winter cereals.


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3.2 United Kingdom Winter sowing well underway with good emergence

Temperatures exceeded the LTA until the second dekad of

September, after which below seasonal values prevailed.

The review period was mostly dry, with the exception of

two wet dekads, at the end of September and the

beginning of October, with rainfall markedly more

abundant in the South than in the northern areas.

The predominantly dry weather of September facilitated

harvest in the northern areas with good reported yields.

The sowing of winter cereals started on-time and in good

seedbeds, and has proceeded well, despite some

disruptions due to rainfall (particularly in the East of

England). The earliest sown oilseed rape emerged well.

Disease pressure increased on sugar beet and potato

crops. The sugar beet harvesting campaign started in

October. Potato harvest progressed well.

Due to the limited harvest losses in the northern areas,

our spring barley forecast was slightly increased, with

values now close to the average. Due to the increased

disease pressure, we lowered the forecasts for sugar beet

and potatoes, and these are now close to the historical

trend.


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3.3 Black Sea Area

Ukraine Poor outlook for grain maize

Temperatures have been exceptionally warmer than the

LTA for the entire analysis period, with the exception of a

few days at the end of September. This year is the

warmest on our record at country scale for the period

under review. September was also exceptionally dry, but

heavy rainfalls were observed at the end of

September/beginning of October, as well as in the second

dekad of October. This precipitation allowed recently sown

winter crops to emerge, and soil moisture contents are

mostly satisfactory now for sowings to continue.

However, soil moisture remains particularly low in the

south-western regions Odes’ka and Mykolayivs’ka, which

were exposed to a summer drought. More rain will be

needed to ensure a good start to the season, particularly

for winter barley. The yield forecast for summer crops has

been maintained below last year’s level, and grain maize

may have been impacted much more than previously

thought, with a potentially lower yield than our forecast.

Turkey Summer crops undergo moderate heat stress in September

Above-average cumulative temperature and scarce rainfall characterised the review period (1 September – 20

October) in almost all regions. A prolonged heatwave

occurred in the first half of September in central and

eastern regions, leading to maximum daily temperatures

4-6°C above the LTA. The main effect was that maize and

soybean in the cultivated areas in Adana (20% and 66%

of average national production, respectively) experienced

accelerated grain-filling stages, with moderate impacts on

final production. Harvesting of summer crops is close to

completion in the central regions, and will continue for

another 1-2 dekads to the east, towards the Syrian border.

Our forecasts for summer crops in Turkey are revised

downwards to account for the reported abiotic stress, but

still remain above the 5-year average. The sowing window

for winter crops is not yet open, but will start in November.


18

3.4 European Russia and Belarus

European Russia Good pace of autumn sowing campaign

In September and the first half of October, temperatures

considerably exceeded the LTA, except during a short

colder period in September. Prevailing temperatures in the

western side of European Russia were significantly (2-5°C)

higher than usual, while the majority of the eastern part

was only 0.5-2°C milder than usual. Only the southern

regions of the Volga okrug presented near-average overall

thermal conditions.

Rainfall during this period was absent or very limited (less

than half the LTA) in the Southern and North Caucasian

okrugs, as well as in the southern half of the Central okrug.

These regions are suffering from a long-lasting rainfall

deficit that started early this summer. The western part of

the Volga okrug was also drier than usual. Above-average

precipitation was experienced in some areas close to the

Black Sea, in the eastern regions of the Volga okrug, and

in north-western regions of European Russia.

Dry weather conditions allowed a good pace of harvesting

operations. Low topsoil moisture conditions caused

problems for the preparation of seedbeds, but progress of

the autumn sowing campaign was adequate.

The yield outlook for grain maize just reaches the 5-year

average at country level, due to limited water supply

conditions this summer in south-western Russia. More

information and detailed crop yield forecasts can be found

in the dedicated Bulletin for Russia, see

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins.

Belarus Good end to the season for maize

During the analysis period, warmer-than-usual (2-4°C >

LTA) temperatures prevailed across the country.

Cumulative rainfall values were below the LTA in the

western and central regions, resulting in a depletion of

topsoil moisture. On the other hand, rainfall was above the

LTA in the Mogilev and Gomel regions, mainly due to

abundant precipitation in October.

Agrometeorological conditions were generally fair for

sowing and early development of winter crops, with

exception of the Grodno and Gomel regions, where dry

topsoils could negatively impact germination and early

development of plants. Mild temperatures were

favourable for maize ripening, and drying down of kernels.

The grain-maize harvesting campaign is currently in full

swing. Our model indicates above- or close-to-average

storage organ accumulation for grain maize in all regions,

except Grodno where results are below average. We

maintain our grain maize yield expectations presented in

the September Bulletin.

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins


19

4 Crop yield forecast

Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020

forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19

EU 7.58 7.90 7.42 – 2.1 – 6.1AT 10.1 10.4 10.8 + 7.1 + 3.7BE 10.4 10.5 10.4 – 0.5 – 0.6BG 6.48 7.11 5.00 – 23 – 30CY — — — — —CZ 7.30 8.29 8.05 + 10 – 2.9DE 9.21 8.81 9.15 – 0.6 + 3.9DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 10.3 10.6 10.4 + 1.2 – 1.7ES 11.6 11.8 11.8 + 2.2 + 0.3FI — — — — —FR 8.84 8.55 8.40 – 5.0 – 1.7HR 7.87 9.01 8.88 + 13 – 1.4HU 7.50 8.05 8.63 + 15 + 7.2IE — — — — —IT 10.2 10.0 10.8 + 6.4 + 8.5LT 6.39 7.67 6.26 – 2.1 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 9.78 9.75 10.0 + 2.3 + 2.6PL 6.09 5.62 6.68 + 10 + 19PT 8.52 8.98 8.71 + 2.2 – 3.1RO 5.52 6.52 4.44 – 20 – 32SE — — — — —SI 8.85 9.27 9.96 + 13 + 7.4SK 6.94 7.39 7.95 + 15 + 7.6

UK — — — — —

Country

Grain maize (t/ha)



EU* 40.1 38.9 40.0 – 0.2 + 2.7AT 45.4 46.1 47.4 + 4.4 + 2.6BE 40.3 40.9 42.0 + 4.2 + 2.6BG 21.5 21.4 18.5 – 14 – 14CY — — — — —CZ 34.0 35.5 35.4 + 4.3 – 0.1DE 41.2 39.0 40.0 – 2.8 + 2.6DK 37.4 44.5 40.4 + 8.0 – 9.3EE 30.9 35.4 33.7 + 9.2 – 4.7EL 19.5 17.7 20.4 + 4.3 + 15ES 37.8 35.4 38.1 + 0.9 + 7.7FI — — — — —FR 39.7 37.7 39.1 – 1.4 + 3.8HR 37.6 39.0 37.8 + 0.4 – 3.1HU 28.6 31.5 32.6 + 14 + 3.4IE 50.0 51.3 52.3 + 4.6 + 1.9IT 50.4 50.9 53.7 + 6.6 + 5.6LT 29.0 30.7 28.5 – 1.6 – 7.3LU 44.2 39.4 43.2 – 2.3 + 10LV 32.1 36.1 34.4 + 7.3 – 4.8MT — — — — —NL 41.5 42.7 41.5 + 0.0 – 2.9PL 43.5 40.6 42.8 – 1.5 + 5.5PT 36.8 35.4 35.7 – 3.1 + 0.8RO 27.0 26.7 27.1 + 0.2 + 1.3SE — — — — —SI 46.3 46.2 50.6 + 9.4 + 9.5SK 28.9 30.0 30.5 + 5.8 + 1.8

UK — — — — —

Green maize (t/ha)

Country


20



EU 32.4 32.1 32.6 + 0.4 + 1.6AT 30.3 31.3 34.3 + 13 + 9.5BE 41.0 41.0 42.0 + 2.3 + 2.4BG 17.6 21.3 16.5 – 6.3 – 22CY — — — — —CZ 26.9 27.2 28.9 + 7.5 + 6.2DE 41.8 39.0 41.4 – 0.9 + 6.2DK 41.0 42.5 41.9 + 2.1 – 1.4EE — — — — —EL 27.9 29.5 26.9 – 3.4 – 8.6ES 31.7 33.9 30.1 – 4.8 – 11FI 27.4 28.9 29.0 + 5.8 + 0.4FR 41.2 41.4 40.5 – 1.9 – 2.3HR — — — — —HU 24.4 25.9 27.0 + 11 + 4.3IE — — — — —IT 28.5 29.2 27.9 – 2.1 – 4.5LT 15.8 18.1 18.0 + 14 – 0.5LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 42.0 42.0 42.4 + 1.0 + 1.0PL 24.8 21.4 25.0 + 0.8 + 17PT 20.8 22.7 22.0 + 5.8 – 2.9RO 15.7 15.1 15.9 + 1.0 + 5.2SE 34.2 35.8 33.3 – 2.6 – 7.0SI — — — — —SK — — — — —

UK 40.5 36.5 41.3 + 2.2 + 13

Country

Potato (t/ha)



EU 74.6 73.8 72.5 – 2.8 – 1.9AT 70.8 70.5 76.4 + 8.0 + 8.4BE 84.9 88.0 83.0 – 2.3 – 5.7BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 62.7 61.8 62.3 – 0.6 + 0.7DE 73.6 72.7 74.1 + 0.7 + 1.9DK 69.9 80.7 71.7 + 2.5 – 11EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES 90.0 91.2 89.6 – 0.5 – 1.8FI 37.9 47.6 41.3 + 9.0 – 13FR 87.0 84.7 81.6 – 6.2 – 3.7HR 61.9 61.2 64.2 + 3.8 + 5.0HU 62.3 58.5 69.5 + 11 + 19IE — — — — —IT 64.6 66.8 63.9 – 1.0 – 4.3LT 59.3 71.0 58.0 – 2.2 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 83.1 83.9 83.5 + 0.5 – 0.5PL 60.9 57.5 57.4 – 5.6 – 0.1PT — — — — —RO 40.0 40.4 34.0 – 15 – 16SE 63.6 74.0 64.5 + 1.3 – 13SI — — — — —SK 59.7 57.6 63.5 + 6.4 + 10

UK 70.5 69.1 70.8 + 0.5 + 2.5

Country

Sugar beets (t/ha)


21



EU 2.25 2.32 2.15 – 4.2 – 7.1AT 2.68 3.00 2.83 + 5.7 – 5.8BE — — — — —BG 2.28 2.35 2.02 – 11 – 14CY — — — — —CZ 2.43 2.44 2.41 – 0.9 – 1.2DE 2.02 2.04 2.14 + 6.1 + 4.7DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 2.59 2.80 2.51 – 3.0 – 10ES 1.15 1.12 1.21 + 5.2 + 7.9FI — — — — —FR 2.27 2.15 2.26 – 0.6 + 4.9HR 2.90 3.02 2.92 + 0.7 – 3.2HU 2.88 3.00 2.94 + 2.1 – 2.0IE — — — — —IT 2.37 2.47 2.44 + 2.8 – 1.2LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.47 2.64 2.16 – 13 – 18SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.66 2.64 2.83 + 6.2 + 7.2

UK — — — — —

Country

Sunflower (t/ha)



EU 2.94 3.03 3.01 + 2.5 – 0.5AT 2.86 3.11 2.78 – 2.8 – 11BE — — — — —BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 2.10 2.27 2.28 + 8.5 + 0.4DE — — — — —DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES — — — — —FI — — — — —FR 2.66 2.62 2.66 + 0.2 + 1.6HR 2.79 3.15 2.89 + 3.6 – 8.5HU 2.60 2.78 2.92 + 13 + 5.2IE — — — — —IT 3.61 3.66 3.94 + 9.0 + 7.6LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.39 2.55 2.23 – 6.8 – 13SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.22 2.46 2.56 + 15 + 4.0

UK — — — — —

Country

Soybean (t/ha)


22



BY 5.86 6.00 5.74 – 2.1 – 4.3TR 9.40 9.40 9.51 + 1.2 + 1.2UA 6.59 7.19 6.69 + 1.4 – 7.0

Country

Grain maize (t/ha)



BY 3.08 3.50 3.64 + 18 + 3.9TR 2.70 2.64 2.80 + 3.8 + 6.1UA 3.19 3.42 3.23 + 1.3 – 5.6

Country

Barley (t/ha)



BY 3.51 3.83 3.89 + 11 + 1.6TR 2.78 2.78 2.90 + 4.3 + 4.5UA 4.01 4.16 3.98 – 1.0 – 4.4

Country

Wheat (t/ha)



BY — — — — —TR 4.33 4.25 4.55 + 5.0 + 7.0UA 2.19 2.29 2.34 + 7.2 + 2.4

Country

Soybean (t/ha)

NB:

Sources:

* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.

The column header '%20/5yrs’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%20/19’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to 2019 (%).

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series.

2015-2020 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated September 2020, received on 07.10.2020), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 09.10.2020) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).Non-EU 2015-2019 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 09.10.2020), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.

2020 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 10.10.2020).

EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.


23

5 Atlas

Temperature regime


24

Precipitation


25


26

Climatic water balance

Weather events


27


28

Maize


29

JRC MARS Bulletins 2020

Date Publication Reference

27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 25 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast Vol. 28 No 3

27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 4

18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 5

15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 6

27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 7

24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 8

14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast,

Vol. 28 No 9

27 Oct Agromet analysis, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 10

25 Nov Agromet analysis, pasture analysis, sowing update, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 11

14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini

Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern

Edition B. Baruth, M. van den Berg, S. Niemeyer, M. van der Velde, A. Belward

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)

Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note:

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

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