jrc mars bulletin crop monitoringin europe · 2020. 8. 24. · jrc mars bulletin vol. 28 no 8 –...

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 8 – 24 August 2020

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At EU level, the yield forecasts for almost all summer crops

were revised downwards but remain above or near the 5-

year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the

main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in

France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux

countries and Poland. Only the yield forecast for soybeans

was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions

prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary.

Large parts of western and northern central Europe, have

been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July.

At the end of July, temperatures increased in these regions

and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred

in the first half of August. The combination of the limited

water supply and high temperatures negatively affected

summer crops, with expected yield reductions. In southern

Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the

return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer

crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and

sunflower crops.

In contrast, surplus of precipitation benefited summer

crops in many other parts of central Europe, as well as in

eastern Italy, and western Romania.

Pre-press version Issued: 24 August 2020

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 8

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

August 2020

Reduced yield outlook for summer crops Dry conditions in western, northern-central, and south-eastern Europe

Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 4. Country analysis 5. Crop yield forecasts 6. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 July to 15 August 2020

Avg 5yrs July Bulletin

MARS 2020

forecasts

% Diff 20/5yrs % Diff July

Total cereals 5.60 5.39 5.36 – 4.4 – 0.6Total wheat 5.54 5.34 5.34 – 3.5 + 0.0

Soft wheat 5.77 5.54 5.55 – 3.8 + 0.2Durum wheat 3.49 3.35 3.36 – 3.7 + 0.3

Total barley 4.78 4.89 4.86 + 1.8 – 0.6Spring barley 4.02 4.33 4.39 + 9.1 + 1.4Winter barley 5.75 5.64 5.51 – 4.2 – 2.3

Grain maize 7.58 8.21 8.01 + 5.6 – 2.4Rye 3.76 3.96 3.94 + 4.8 – 0.5Triticale 4.04 4.03 4.12 + 2.0 + 2.2Rape and turnip rape 3.09 2.97 2.98 – 3.3 + 0.3Potato 32.4 34.2 33.1 + 2.3 – 3.1Sugar beet 74.5 75.9 73.5 – 1.4 – 3.1Sunflower 2.25 2.46 2.39 + 6.4 – 2.8Soybean 2.92 2.96 3.06 + 5.0 + 3.4Green maize 40.2 42.5 40.1 – 0.3 – 5.7Issued: 21 August 2020

Crop

Yield (t/ha)


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1. Agrometeorological overview

1.1. Areas of concern

Large parts of western and northern central Europe have

been affected by a marked rain deficit since the beginning of July; scarce precipitation was recorded in France, the

Benelux countries, Germany, western Poland, and

northern Czechia. At the end of July, temperatures

increased and a first short heatwave occurred. A few days

later, a much longer heatwave followed, with seven to ten

consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 30°C, most notably in northern France, the Benelux countries, and northern Germany. The combination of

the long dry spell and the high temperatures depleted soil

moisture levels and negatively affected the yield

potentials of summer crops (in these regions, mainly

potatoes, sugar beet, grain maize and green (silage)

maize; and sunflowers in southern France). Extensive rain deficit has been recorded from Poland and

southern Lithuania, to southern Russia, including

Belarus and most of Ukraine. In these regions, the

impact on crops has been strongly mitigated by large soil

moisture reserves, thanks to the abundant rainfall in June,

and the relatively mild temperatures during the review

period. Soil moisture levels are currently low, however, and

negative impacts on yield potentials can be expected if the

rain deficit continues. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, drought conditions returned and negatively

affected summer crops, leading to the early senescence

of maize and sunflower crops.

A beneficial surplus of precipitation occurred in eastern Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, westerly

regions of Romania and Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, and other parts of the Balkan region. Summer crops

profited from the abundant precipitation, and recovered

from the unfavourable dry start to the season. The precipitation surplus in Ireland and western areas of

the United Kingdom was already reported in the July

issue of the Bulletin. In southern Spain and Portugal, higher-than-usual

temperatures have been recorded since the beginning of

July, with 30 - 40 days of maximum temperatures above

35°C. Similar high temperatures have been recorded in

western and southern Turkey.


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1.2. Meteorological review (1 July – 15 August 2020) Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were

observed in most of Europe. Daily mean temperature

anomalies [with regards to the long-term average (LTA)]

were mainly in the range of 0.5°C - 2°C in western, central,

and south-eastern Europe. More pronounced anomalies,

between 2°C and 4°C, occurred in a large area of the

western Iberian Peninsula. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions were observed

in Scandinavia and the Baltic countries. Daily mean

temperature anomalies were mainly between -2°C and -

0.5°C. A higher-than-usual number of hot days, with daily

maximum temperature exceeding 30°C, were observed in

central-western Europe, and in south-eastern parts of the

United Kingdom. Compared to the LTA, the review period

presented 100% more hot days than usual in these

regions. Heatwaves affected these regions at the end of

July, and from 4-5 August until 13 August. In most of

France, daily maximum temperatures ranged from 38°C -

40°C, while values between 34°C and 36°C were observed

in large areas of Germany, the Benelux countries, and

England. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in some

areas of Spain, Italy, and south-eastern Europe. Anomalies

exceeded the LTA by 80% and in large parts of the

aforementioned regions by up to 140%. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in the

western part of the Iberian Peninsula, France, and the

Benelux countries, as well as in large areas of Germany,

Poland, eastern and south-eastern Europe, Ukraine, and

Turkey.


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1.3. Weather forecast (22 - 28 August 2020)

Weather conditions during the forecast period will be mainly determined by north-westerly/westerly flow, from the North

Atlantic towards western-central Europe, competing with a ridge expanding from north-western Africa towards the

central Mediterranean region. This large scale atmospheric circulation will bring cooler conditions in large regions of

Europe, precipitation and instabilities.

Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected in most of

the Iberian Peninsula, large areas in southern France, Italy,

south-eastern Europe and Ukraine, and European Russia.

Daily mean temperature anomalies (w.r.t. the LTA) are

forecast to be from 2 °C to 4 °C (up to 6 °C in some areas

of Spain and European Russia). In all these regions, except

Ukraine, daily maximum temperatures are expected to

reach values from 35 °C to 38 °C (locally 40 °C). Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast in

most of eastern and northern Europe, with daily mean

temperature anomalies from 0.5 °C to 2 °C. Dry conditions with less than 5 mm of accumulated

precipitation are expected in large regions of western and

central Europe as well as Turkey and Ukraine. Rainfall events with accumulated values mainly

between 10 mm to 40 mm (in some areas up to 80mm)

are forecast in central, eastern and northern Europe as

well as in the UK and Ireland. Long-range weather forecast for September, October,

and November points to likely to occur warmer-than-usual

conditions in most of Europe. Wetter-than-usual

conditions are more likely than not to occur in northern

Europe, whereas drier-than-usual conditions are more

likely than not to occur in the Mediterranean region..


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2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions

Favourable summer season continues in central Europe

The map displays the differences between the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR)

cumulated from 1 July to 10 August 2020, and the medium-term average (MTA, 2010-2019) for the same period.

Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or advanced crop development, while negative

anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development. Regions with no information

due to persistent cloud coverage between 1 and 10 August are highlighted in blue.

In northern Italy, maize and soybean benefitted from rain that sustained crop development during July and August,

strongly mitigating the impact of the heatwaves in late July and August. Summer crops’ biomass is above-average (e.g. Veneto), and flowering took place in most regions. In northern France, the main map still reflects the anticipated end

of the unfavourable winter crops season (red colours). In central and western France, after a favourable June,

summer crops are suffering from a prolonged dry and hot period which has significantly reduced biomass accumulation (e.g. Poitou-Charentes). Positive anomalies in central and northern regions of the United Kingdom are due to a

combination of factors, including the mild weather conditions that prolonged winter and spring crops’ grain filling and

maintained the good condition of sugar beet and potato crops. In southern agricultural regions, the winter crops season ended at the beginning of August. In northern Germany, the winter crops season ended with between average and

slightly dry conditions. In central and southern Germany, summer crops are proceeding favourably (e.g. Oberbayern).

In Poland, fAPAR profiles display an optimal end to the winter crops season (e.g. Lodzkie), with a prolonged winter crops’

grain filling period thanks to sufficient precipitation and slightly lower-than-average temperatures. In central Europe (Slovakia, Czechia, and Austria), the summer crops season is proceeding very favourably, with a surplus of

precipitation that fully sustained crop growth. Biomass accumulation is now well above-average. Similar conditions are observed in Hungary, where the lack of temperature accumulation at the beginning of July was compensated for by

the moderate heatwaves around 1 August. Summer crops’ growth is optimal (e.g. Del-Alfold) thanks to the abundant


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precipitation observed during the analysis period. Similar conditions are observed in western parts of Romania and Bulgaria, where the hot temperatures at the end of July and the overall abundant precipitation maintained a high level

of biomass accumulation. Summer crops are now around the flowering stage. In contrast, in central and eastern parts

of Romania and Bulgaria (e.g. Severn Tsentralen), the hot and dry July and August hampered summer crops’ growth,

and led to an unusual accelerated senescence with negative effects on yield formation. In central and western Ukraine,

the fAPAR profiles show a delayed but favourable summer crop development (e.g.Ternopil’s’ka), with fAPAR levels similar

to those in the 2019 season.


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3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring

Favourable conditions in most of the EU, but large regions under stress

Pastures are in good condition in most EU countries, though several large regions have been under increasing stress due

to limited water supply and high temperatures. The EU areas most affected are a large region extending from central

and northern France through the southern half of the Benelux countries and central Germany to north-western Poland,

eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria.

The pasture productivity index (PPI)1 for the period 11 July to 20 August 2020 is shown on the map above.

Weather conditions during the period of review were favourable for pasture growth in many parts of the EU, with above-average rainfall in most parts of Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Hungary (see fAPAR 2 graph for Eszak-

Magyarorszag), Ireland (see graph for northern and western Ireland), Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia (see graph for Latvia) and western parts of Bulgaria and Romania. Rainfall was particularly abundant in

Hungary, where frequent intensive storms caused damage to several pasture areas. In Lithuania, Poland, and central Romania, pasture productivity has been above-average, but rainfall was below the

1 PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity is an indicator of biomass formation, based on the integration of the fAPAR remote sensing product of pasture areas (at NUTS3 level) over a period of interest. The index shows the relative position of the current season within the historical series from 2010 to 2019. 2 fAPAR: fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation. The photosynthetically active radiation is 48% of the incoming solar radiation.


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LTA, and will be needed soon to avoid unseasonal impacts. In the Benelux countries, the increasing rain deficit from north to south is reflected in a decreasing pasture productivity

gradient. A heatwave between 5 and 15 August exacerbated the effects of water stress. Nevertheless, in most areas

pasture productivity has been above-average considering the period covered by the PPI map. A similar gradient is visible in Germany, with near-average to favourable conditions in the north-west (see graph Weser-Ems), decreasing to dry

and heat-stressed central regions (extending into north-western Poland), and returning to more favourable conditions

further south, towards the Alpine region. In central, eastern, and northern France (see graph for Bourgogne), the combination of hot conditions and lack of rainfall

have taken a heavy toll on soil water reserves. Pasture productivity in the most western and south-eastern parts of France remained near-average to above-average. In eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria (see graph

Severoiztochen) the situation of drought has returned as a consequence of sparse rainfall and several heatwaves.

The decreasing photosynthetic activity is especially found in border areas close to the Black Sea. In contrast, the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania experienced relatively mild temperatures and above-average precipitation, leading

to above-average grassland productivity. In southern Spain, the temperatures have reached very high values. Combined with the prevailing dry conditions, this

has stalled pasture growth, even though pasture productivity for the period as a whole remained around average in the

south, and above-average in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula.


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4. Country analysis

4.1. European Union x

France Summer crop yields revised downward following the dry conditions

A large rain deficit was observed during the review period,

with very little significant rainfall until the second dekad

of August in most regions, when stormy weather brought

substantial rainfall. Temperatures stayed close to

seasonal values during most of July, but have increased

substantially since the last dekad of July, and a heatwave

was recorded during the first half of August.

The warm temperatures caused increased evapo-

transpiration, exposing summer crops to water stress in

most regions.

Summer crops’ yield forecasts have been revised

downwards compared to last month, and are close to the

lowest yields recorded in the past 10 years.

For winter cereals, the yield forecasts remain unchanged,

except for winter barley. Following publication of the first

estimates based on harvested field observations 3 , the

winter barley forecast was revised substantially upward in

July. However, subsequent analysis showed a bias in these

reports and that our much lower June estimate (based on

meteorological analysis) was more representative, and in

line with the most recent estimates of AGRESTE4.

Germany Dry conditions return

July temperatures fluctuated around the average, with a

couple of hot days (>30 °C) in the south and almost none

in the north. The beginning of August saw the first

pronounced summer heatwave, with maximum

temperatures exceeding 35°C some days; temperatures

were less intense only along the coast and in southern

Bayern. Precipitation in July was adequate in

Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein, and Mecklenburg-

Vorpommern, but further south the rain deficit was

significant. This pattern was somewhat reversed in

August. Especially Saarland, Rheinland Pfalz, Hessen and

Sachsen, exhibit a continued strong rain deficit. The

harvest of winter wheat, winter barley, and rapeseed is

finished, and the spring barley harvest is well underway.

Grain maize flowering mainly took place in July, and

therefore escaped the high August temperatures.

Nevertheless, the continued water deficit in most regions

of Germany is a clear concern for summer crops.

Consequently, yield forecasts are decreased, but are still

above last year’s disappointing levels.

3 https://moisson-live.com/ 4 https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-

web/download/publication/publie/IraGcu20107/2020_107inforapgdescultures.pdf

https://moisson-live.com/

https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/download/publication/publie/IraGcu20107/2020_107inforapgdescultures.pdf




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Poland Slightly reduced yield outlook for grain maize and sugar beet

During the review period, precipitation was substantially

below the LTA. Temperatures oscillated around the LTA,

while hot days in July were less frequent than usual.

Moderate temperatures, in conjunction with heavy

precipitation events at the beginning of August mitigated

the negative effects of rain deficit on summer crops.

The harvest of winter and spring cereals was delayed

compared to last year, due to the lengthened grain filling

period (moderate temperatures) and wet conditions which

hampered ripening and harvest operations. The harvest of

winter rapeseed was finalised during the first dekad of

August, while winter wheat harvest is in full swing, with

field reports suggesting satisfactory yields and grain

quality.

Conditions were generally satisfactory for summer crops.

Grain maize flowering took place when the moisture levels

were still adequate, except for in dry north-western

regions. However, more rain will be needed during the

following weeks for a satisfactory yield formation. Our

yield forecasts for grain maize and sugar beet have been

slightly reduced.

Ireland Harvest is underway under wet conditions with variable yields

The review period was characterised by slightly below-

average temperatures and frequent rainfall.

Due to the mild temperatures, winter crops ripened slowly

with a positive effect on grain weight. Harvest has been

completed for winter barley, and is underway for winter

wheat. In several areas, heavy rains and excessively wet

soil conditions are hampering progress. The spring barley

harvest has started in the south for the earliest-sown

crops. In many fields, crops have been ripening unevenly,

and yields remain variable among fields with thin crops

resulting in reduced average yields. The oilseed rape

harvest has been concluded with reported good yields.

Green maize is faring well, despite the colder-than-usual

period.

The yield forecasts for winter cereals have been slightly

reduced due to the wet harvest conditions.

Spain and Portugal Continued positive outlook for summer crops in Spain

Weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula have been

favourable for spring and summer cereals. The harvest of

spring cereals was completed during the review period,

without any setbacks. Maize development in the northern-

central regions (Castilla y Leon, and Castilla-La Mancha)

is advanced by one dekad. Southern regions are hitting the


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highest maximum temperatures for the review period,

according to our records (since 1979; see Sevilla graph).

The levels of water reservoirs in Spain are at 53% of full

capacity, which is mid-way between 2019 and the 10-year average5. The lowest levels are in Guadalquivir reservoirs,

below the 2019 level, at 36% of full capacity.

Even though the situation in southern-central Spain

requires attention, the yield forecasts for summer crops

(grain maize, and sunflower) remain stable and above the

5-year average. Yield expectations in Portugal’s Centro

and Norte are stable at around the 5-year average.

Italy Good perspectives for maize, soybeans, and sunflower

In Italy, rainfall in July and August was between average

and abundant. Temperatures were mostly mild in July, but

there have been three heatwaves since 20 July, with

maximum temperatures exceeding 35°C around 31 July.

In north-western regions, crop development results are

uneven due to the different sowing strategies adopted by

the farmers, but most fields have above-average biomass

accumulation. In August, the grain filling of grain maize

began under optimal conditions.

In north-eastern regions, maize only entered the grain

filling phase in the second week of August, with up to 20

days of delay due to the unfavourable start to the season.

The crops are now in good condition and biomass

accumulation is above-average, even in provinces where

the drought was more severe during spring.

In central Italy, maize and sunflower benefitted from

frequent rainfall, and yield expectations are favourable.

The sunflower harvest is about to start.

All summer crops’ forecasts are above the 5-year average.

Hungary High yield expectations for summer crops

The period between 11 and 25 July was significantly

colder than usual, but above-average temperatures

dominated in the first dekad of July and the period after

25 July. Rainfall was frequent, intensive, and abundant,

(locally excessive, causing damaging flash floods and

inundations) resulting in above-average levels of

precipitation by 20%-130% in most regions, with the

5 Source: www.embalses.net (18.08.2020)

highest levels in eastern and southern Hungary. Despite

the weather problems in July, the harvest of winter cereals

went generally well and was concluded without major

delays; our previous pessimistic yield forecast has

therefore been increased.

The phenological development of summer crops is

seasonal, but the mild temperatures of mid-June

http://www.embalses.net/


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favourably extended the flowering period, and facilitated

the pollination of grain maize and sunflower. The soil

moisture supply during flowering and early grain filling

has been adequate throughout the country. Model

simulations and satellite images indicate above-average

biomass accumulation, most markedly in eastern regions.

The yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised

further upwards.

Romania Wet west, dry east

During the review period, temperatures alternated

between warmer-than-usual and colder-than-usual

periods, resulting in near-average (slightly warmer-than-

usual in south-eastern regions) thermal conditions for the

period as a whole. Grain maize benefitted from the mild

temperatures between 7 and 26 July that coincided with

the flowering stage. In July, rainy weather conditions

persisted in western and central areas, where

70 mm – 160 mm of precipitation was measured.

Eastern and south-eastern regions received below-

average (typically only 10 mm – 50 mm) rainfall in July.

August was almost entirely dry throughout the country.

Soil moisture levels were generally adequate during the

flowering period for grain maize and sunflower, thanks to

the abundant rainfall in June and early July. However,

after mid-July, summer crops started to experience water

deficit, and evidence of early leaf senescence has

appeared in the main producing southern and eastern

regions. Biomass accumulation of summer crops is high in

western regions, but below average in the east. Sunflower

and grain maize yield forecasts were revised downwards,

considering the deteriorating water supply conditions in

considerable areas during grain filling.

Bulgaria Decreased maize and sunflower yield expectations due to scarce rain

Thermal conditions varied considerably over the review

period, resulting –overall in a positive anomaly of 1°C-

2.5°C in eastern Bulgaria, and near-average levels

elsewhere. The end of July and beginning of August, was

hot, with daily maximum temperatures in the range of

35°C-39°C. The number of hot days exceeded the average

by 5-17 days, except in the milder south-western regions,

where it was below or close to average.

After a wet June, precipitation decreased dramatically in

central and eastern Bulgaria, where less than 15 mm of

rainfall was typically recorded during the review period.

Western regions received near- or above-average rainfall.

The harvesting of winter crops was concluded without

problems in eastern areas, but problems associated with

frequent rainfall continued in western areas, and

especially in south-western territories. Grain maize and

sunflower in the north and west experienced favourable

conditions during flowering. After mid-July, (during grain

filling) the soil moisture under summer crops decreased to

below-average levels, except in western regions. Model


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simulations indicate that biomass accumulation slowed

down and reached an average level; therefore our

previous optimistic yield forecasts for maize and

sunflowers were revised downwards.

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Good summer crop yield outlook

July was characterised by average temperature

conditions. This was followed by a warmer-than-usual

first half of August, with temperature anomalies up to 4⁰C

above the LTA, and maximum temperatures reaching up

to 34⁰C during the hottest days. Rainfall varied between

less than 60 mm (well below the LTA) in north-western

Czechia, to 100 mm in north-eastern Austria, and more

than 200 mm in central Austria (i.e. up to 80% above the

LTA).

The winter crop harvesting campaign is finished. The soft

wheat yield forecast has been revised upwards in Austria,

due to prevailing favourable weather conditions during the

review period. Summer crops are generally in good

condition, except in northwestern Czechia, where rainfall

deficit conditions continue to prevail. The sensitive stage

of grain maize flowering mainly occurred before the

heatwave at the beginning of August. The yield outlook for

summer crops was revised upwards.

Denmark and Sweden Positive yield outlook maintained for all crops

Most regions received a cumulative amount of rainfall

close to seasonal values, with the exception of Sjaelland.

Rain was particularly abundant in July, but has stopped

since the beginning of August. This interruption has had

no negative consequences on crop yield potentials so far,

and has even been beneficial for the harvest of winter

crops. Temperatures were milder than usual in July, and

therefore favorable for the grain filling of winter cereals.

Since 5 August, a distinct warm weather anomaly has

been observed, and considering that the maximum

temperatures remain below 30°C, no negative

consequences for crop yields are expected. The yield

forecasts for winter cereals and spring barley are

maintained close to the highest yields recorded in the past

10 years. The yield forecasts for summer crops have been

revised upward.


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Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Cereal harvest progressing under cold and wet weather

Temperatures were predominantly colder than usual

during the review period. Precipitation was close to the LTA

in Estonia and Latvia, but below-average in Lithuania,

whereas Finland received particularly abundant and

frequent rainfall.

In the Baltic countries, the cereals and oilseed rape

harvest is underway, and yield expectations remain good.

In Finland, the winter cereal harvest began as usual during

the first week of August, with variable expectations across

the country, and particularly low prospects for south-

western regions which were affected by the dry and warm

conditions in June. In some areas in southern Finland,

harvest has been hampered by wet soil conditions.

Preparations for autumn sowing have also begun across

these countries.

Weather conditions have been generally adequate for

summer crops. The yield forecasts for cereals and oilseed

rape were maintained at the levels reported in July, except

for oilseed rape in Lithuania, for which the forecast was

revised downwards (but remains above the 5-year

average) following subsequent analyses.

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands Reduced yield expectations for summer crops

Rainfall cumulated over the review period presented a

clear gradient from just above the LTA in northern coastal

areas of the Netherlands to only 20% of the LTA in

Luxembourg. Temperatures slightly below the LTA

prevailed in July, but abruptly increased at the end of the

month. The first half of August was exceptionally warm,

with a heatwave from 6 to 13 August.

The harvesting of winter crops proceeded smoothly and

was practically completed in the first week of August.

Harvesting of spring cereals is ongoing. Summer crop

growth was negatively affected by the combination of

high temperatures and limited water supply; most

markedly in Luxembourg, inland parts of Belgium and

southeastern parts of the Netherlands. After the

heatwave, continued above-average day and night

temperatures combined with high air humidity are likely

to have further affected sugar beet and potatoes.

Greece and Cyprus Positive outlook for summer crops

The review period (11 July - 15 August) was characterised

by above-average rainfall in Greece, with the exception of

Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (North-East), where rainfall

was scarce. Precipitation was concentrated in the first

dekad of August, and was beneficial for the restoration of

soil moisture after the heatwaves in northern and central


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Greece at the beginning and end of July. Meteorological

conditions in Cyprus were around average.

Satellite-based observations (fAPAR) suggest a slow-

down in biomass accumulation (from above-average to

average levels) in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. Summer

crops’ growth has been moderately hampered in this area

by the combined effect of high temperatures and scarce

precipitation in July during flowering. The yield forecasts

for summer crops are above the 5-year average. However,

more rain is needed in the coming weeks to sustain grain

filling and the positive outlook.

Slovenia and Croatia Good summer crop yield outlook

Following the around-average temperature conditions

throughout most of July, the end of July and first half of

August were characterised by two heatwaves, which were

most pronounced in the Adriatic coastal regions, and

eastern Croatia. Maximum temperatures in the coastal

regions exceeded 34⁰C, and reached this value in eastern

Slovenia and eastern Croatia during this period. Rainfall

was abundant in both countries; in eastern Slovenia and

central-northern Croatia, rainfall cumulates (exceeding

200 mm) more than doubled the LTA values.

The winter crop harvesting campaign has finished.

Summer crops are generally in good condition, even

though locally some stands were damaged due to

excessive rainfall. The summer crop yield forecasts have

therefore been revised slightly upwards.


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4.2. United Kingdom Harvest progressing quickly with below-average yields

A slightly colder-than-usual period characterised July,

whereas August was warmer than usual. Rainfall varied

from below-average in the south-west (locally

40% < LTA) to 30% above the LTA in Scotland. In most

regions, rainfall was more abundant in July, whereas

August has been relatively dry so far, but precipitation in

Scotland has persisted throughout the review period.

The prevailing dry conditions during August facilitated

rapid progress in harvesting, except in Scotland where

progress was hampered due to the persisting wet

conditions. The winter barley and winter oilseed rape

harvests were mostly concluded by the first dekad of

August. The winter wheat harvest is progressing well,

mostly in the East and South East, under favourable

conditions. Reported yields are highly variable due to the

difficult season, and generally remain below the 5-year

average. Spring barley is being harvested in the south-

west, south-east, and east, but is still ripening in northern

areas.

Summer crops are faring well, with some increase in pest

and diseases after the wet weather of July.

The yield forecasts of the July Bulletin remain almost

unchanged.


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4.3. Black Sea Area

Ukraine Summer crop yields revised downward following the rain deficit

A rain deficit has been observed since the beginning of

July in most of central Ukraine. The drought is still ongoing

in the south, Odes’ka, south of Mykolayivs’ka, and Krym.

Temperatures fluctuated around the average in a

succession of short warm and milder periods. Considering

the rain deficit, grain maize and soybean yield forecasts

were revised downwards, to below the level of the

historical trends, and very close to last year’s levels. The

impact of the rain deficit is not disastrous, considering the

rain surplus recorded in May and June in central Ukraine,

and that most summer crops are cultivated on chernozem

soils. Nonetheless, the substantial rainfall in May delayed

part of the sowings, and colder-than-usual temperatures

in June delayed crop development. Consequently, the

delay in phenology has shifted the season forward, and

this is exposing summer crops more prominently to risk of

water stress. The harvest of winter cereals has been

finalised. Soft wheat and barley forecasts remain

unchanged.

Turkey Hot summer, but no concerns for crops

In Turkey, temperatures in July and August were

constantly above the LTA in the main agricultural regions.

Even without peaking to very high levels compared to an

average season, the number of days with Tmax > 30°C

almost doubled throughout western Anatolia (Bati

Anadolu). In the hottest regions, in western and south-

eastern Turkey, maximum temperatures were always

above 30°C throughout the analysis period. Precipitation

was scarce, as usual.

Winter crops’ favourable season ended: the last harvest

operations took place in eastern Anatolia around 15 July.

Summer crops (under irrigation regime only) are

developing favourably in most regions. Crop development

is still generally delayed due to the late sowings, but

biomass accumulation is now above-average, although

not to the same extent as in 2019, as shown in the Adana

fAPAR profile.

The yield forecasts for summer crops are above the 5-

year average.


21

4.4. European Russia and Belarus

European Russia Mediocre outlook for grain maize due to dry conditions in the south

The first half of July was much warmer than usual (by

1°C – 5°C) in European Russia. During the remainder of

the review period, near-seasonal thermal conditions

prevailed, except in the Central okrug and some adjacent

areas of Volga and Southern okrug, which were somewhat

colder-than-usual (by 0.5°C – 2.5°C).

Precipitation sums reached only 5 mm – 35 mm in

southern North Caucasus and southern regions of the

Central okrug, as well as territories of Volga okrug along

the Kazakh border. Other regions received more abundant

rainfall, in the range of 60 mm – 170 mm.

In southern regions, dry weather conditions facilitated the

harvesting of winter crops, but frequent and abundant

rains hampered progress in central and eastern regions,

possibly causing some yield losses, and likely decreasing

grain quality. The overall wheat yield outlook is somewhat

higher than last year, as the reduced outlook due to

insufficient water supply in southern Russia is

compensated for by the positive outlook for the Central

and Volga okrugs, where favourably moist and mild

weather conditions prevailed.

Inadequate water supply during flowering and early grain

filling adversely affected grain maize in the main

producing regions in southern Russia. Adequate soil

moisture and thermal conditions prevail elsewhere, but

without compensating for the adverse conditions in the

south. Therefore the yield outlook for grain maize has

been reduced, and is now at the level of the last 5-year

average.

Belarus Fair conditions for summer crops

During the review period, slightly warmer–than-usual (0-

2°C > LTA) temperatures prevailed in the south-west,

while temperatures in north-eastern regions were slightly

below average. Cumulative rainfall was significantly

below average (<-30% compared to LTA), most markedly

in western and south-eastern regions.

The harvest of winter and spring cereals started during the

second dekad of July and is still progressing, with field

reports suggesting satisfactory yields (better than in

2019).

Agrometeorological conditions were generally satisfactory

for the development and biomass accumulation of maize.

However, soil moisture levels have been gradually

depleting, and rainfall is much needed during the coming

weeks for adequate kernel formation.

Our yield forecasts for wheat and barley have been

increased due to the favorable conditions during late grain

filling and harvesting, while the outlook for maize is

slightly below the 5-year average.


22

5. Crop yield forecasts


23


24


25


26


27


28


29

NB:

Sources:

* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.

The column header '%20/5yrs’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%20/19’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to 2019 (%).

N/A = Data not available.

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series.

2015-2020 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated July 2020, received on 27.7.2020), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 11.8.2020) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).Non-EU 2015-2019 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 11.8.2020), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.

2020 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.8.2020).

EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.


30

6. Atlas

Temperature regime

Precipitation


31


32

Climatic water balance

Weather events


33


34

Crop development stages and precocity


35

Relative soil moisture


36

Weather anomalies around flowering and ripening


37

Precipitation around harvesting


38

JRC MARS Bulletins 2020

Date Publication Reference

27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast Vol. 28 No 3

27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 4

18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 5

15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 6

27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 7

24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 8

14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast,

Vol. 28 No 9

26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 10

23 Nov Agromet analysis, sowing update, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 11

14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini

Reporting support SeproTec, G. Mulhern

Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)

Contact JRC D5/MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

Pre-press version. This is a pre-press version of the JRC MARS Bulletin, which, after final editing will be formally published by the Publications Office of the European Union.

In terms of content, both versions are identical.

jrc mars bulletin crop monitoringin europe · 2020. 8. 24. · jrc mars bulletin vol. 28 no 8 –...

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