jpmorgan chinese investment trust plc: annual general meeting chin… · infrastructure investment...

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc:

Annual General Meeting

January 2019

Howard Wang, Managing Director

Portfolio Manager and Head of the Greater China Equities Team

Rebecca Jiang, Executive Director

Portfolio Manager

1

Questions from investors

What’s your view on US-China trade?

Several sectors have sold off quite sharply this year.. what is going on?

Given all that has happened, what have you done with the portfolio?

What are some of the interesting new ideas for the portfolio this year?

2

Outlook

Opportunities?

Drivers of returns?

Risks?

Positioning?

Secular corporate earnings growth in “New China”, widening foreign access and

attention to A-share market, and attractive valuation driven by extreme market

sentiment

Corporate earnings growth coupled with valuation normalization

Escalation of global trade tensions, growth headwinds from domestic financial

deleveraging, and policy over-tightening

Key stock overweights remain in structural growth sectors, including consumer,

technology / internet, healthcare and environmental services

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of December 2018. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market

conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

3

Trade wars: It’s a systematic approach

Source: Market Insights – Market Bulletin: Investors eye the negotiating table: Rebalancing

China-U.S. trade and markets. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, J.P.

Morgan Asset Management. *Sales data is as of 2015, which is the most recent year for

which sales of multinational firms are available. Data reflect most recently available as of

10/5/18.

Where China makes concessions: Old China

Opening up market access Auto, financial services

Lowering import tariff

Auto & auto parts, consumer

products (cosmetics, perfumes,

spirits etc.)

Increasing imports Oil & LNG, agricultural products

Where China holds the line: New China

Made in China 2025Software, automation, healthcare

services

Goods

Goods

Services

Services

Sales*

Sales*

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

U.S. China

USD Billions, 2017*

Currently

targeted with

tariffs

Could be

targeted

Likely next

target for

China

$150 billion

level

What China has on hand: things beyond tariffs

“Just had a long and very good call

with President Xi of China. Deal is

moving along very well. If made, it will

be very comprehensive, covering all

subjects, areas and points of dispute.

Big Progress being made!”

- President Trump via Twitter on

Dec 30, 2018.

Image source: Shutterstock.

4

Monetary policy focus changed from deleveraging to stabilizing leverage

Short term rates declined rapidly with more liquidity injection from

PBOCCredit growth has bottomed

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of December 31 2018Source: WIND. Data as of end Dec 2018.

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

01/1

3

04/1

3

07/1

3

10/1

3

01/1

4

04/1

4

07/1

4

10/1

4

01/1

5

04/1

5

07/1

5

10/1

5

01/1

6

04/1

6

07/1

6

10/1

6

01/1

7

04/1

7

07/1

7

10/1

7

01/1

8

04/1

8

07/1

8

10/1

8

Domestic Credit YoY growth

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

Shibor (3M)China Corp Bond AA (1Yr)

A 6/24People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by

50bp

B 7/18PBOC will offer Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) liquidity to banks

specifically to buy low grade corp bonds

C 7/20

Eased Wealth Management Product (WMP) rule is announced from

PBOC/China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBRIC)

with more flexibility given to banks

D 10/7 PBOC to cut Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 100bps

E 10/30 CBIRC urges banks to support SMEs and private sector

F 12/19PBOC to offer banks Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility (TMLF) to

support SMEs lending

G 2019/1/4 PBOC to cut Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 100bps

A

B

CF

E

D

G

5

More proactive fiscal policies

Pick up in local government bond issuance to support

infrastructure investment

Source: WIND, Ministry of Finance, CICC Estimates. Data as of end Dec 2018.Source: WIND. Data as of end Dec 2018.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2016 2017 2018 2019ER

mb b

n

Net increase of special-purpose localgovernment bond

Net increase of local government bond

Fiscal policy to reverse

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

03/1

6

05/1

6

07/1

6

09/1

6

11/1

6

01/1

7

03/1

7

05/1

7

07/1

7

09/1

7

11/1

7

01/1

8

03/1

8

05/1

8

07/1

8

09/1

8

11/1

8

Government revenue growth Government expenditure growth

Government

revenue growth

is faster than

government

expenditure

growth

Government

expenditure

growth is faster

than revenue

growth

1. Personal income tax cut

(0.5% of GDP)”

– 20 Oct 2018

2. Corporate VAT cut

expected in 2019

Expect

government

expenditure

to outgrow

revenue

6

More coordinated policies to support confidence and growth

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of December 31 2018Source: Data as of end Dec 2018.Data as of end Dec 2018. Rolling 3M = Rolling 3 months.

On November 1, 2018 Xi gave major speech on the importance of private sectors and entrepreneurs in the economy…

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Avg.

3M

16

Ap

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6S

ep-1

6O

ct-

16

Nov-1

6D

ec-1

6

Avg.

3M

17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7S

ep-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7D

ec-1

7

Avg.

3M

18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8S

ep-1

8

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Rolling 3M sales volume growth

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Property: Relaxation of mortgage and in selective cities

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Stock market:

• 19 Oct - Coordinated effort

to resolve pledged stock

issue

• Promote onshore equity

market financing via pro-

market reforms

7

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

01/18 02/18 03/18 04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18 08/18 09/18 10/18 11/18 12/18

YTD stock price performance

Sector level tinkering denting confidence

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of 31 Dec 2018. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation

to buy or sell.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

01/18 02/18 03/18 04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18 08/18 09/18 10/18 11/18 12/18


SinoBiopharm (LHS)

Hengrui (RHS)Vaccine scandal

CFDA reshuffle

Centralized procurement

Healthcare examples – Jiangsu Hengrui / Sino BiopharmTech example - Tencent

2Q18 results

Planned measures

to reduce the prevalence

of myopia

Start of game

approval suspension

…Perception that government favors SOEs over the Private Sector prevails…

8

Sector level tinkering denting confidence

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of 31 Dec 2018. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation

to buy or sell.


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

01/18 03/18 05/18 07/18 09/18 11/18


Wisdom Education (LHS)

New Oriental (RHS)

Education examples – Wisdom / New Oriental

Revised Draft of the

China Private Education

Promotion Law

Regulations for

after-school tutoring

…Perception that government favors SOEs over the Private Sector prevails…

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7

7.12500

3000

3500

4000

4500

CSI300 (LHS)

USD / CNY ( RHS - Inverted)

Combined macro and micro level pressures punishing

9

What have we done?

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute

our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

Select additions Select reductions

Software / Internet: Structural Growth with

attractive expected return

Consumer cyclicals: Real estate

Growth Staples: Steady earnings growth

Electronics/tech:

• End demand weakness

• Trade-related uncertainties

• The selloff of the market has opened up certain opportunities

• We have initiated and added to companies with high expected returns post the market

panics and the ones continue to execute and whose normalised earnings are unlikely to

see any change

10

Going forward…

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of 31 Dec 2018. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our

judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.


… and onshore underperformed offshoreGrowth has underperformed Value…

• Our base case remains: Controlled China growth moderation

• Interest from foreign investors in the domestic market remains strong

• Valuations are also fairly supportive

• We maintain a long-term view and remain focused on structural opportunities in the

consumer, technology, and healthcare sectors

70

80

90

100

110

120

MSCI ChinaMSCI China GrowthMSCI China Value

70

80

90

100

110

120

MSCI China

CSI300

11

We are positioned towards long term structural growth opportunities

Healthcare

Technology

and

Automation

Consumption

Technology

Mobility device functionality

upgrades

Surveillance solutions

Factory automation

Software solution services

Consumption Upgrade Household durables

Food & beverages

Leisure & entertainment

Education

Healthcare Innovative drug R&D

Consumer-oriented traditional

Chinese medicine

Healthcare services

12

Stock example: Shanghai International Airport (China, industrials)

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as of end May 2018. Capex = Capital Expenditure.

The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Benefitting from China’s outbound travel growth

Economics

Excellent profitability: highest margins among listed Chinese

airports. In 2016, it achieved a 41% operating margin and a 43%

net margin vs. average of 35% and 26%, respectively.

Non-aeronautical revenue is mainly driven by high-margin retail

rentals and concessions.

Duration

Super hub with highest international exposure: Benefiting from its

strategic location in the affluent Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area

and differentiated positioning, SIA has the highest international

passenger mix among all three super hubs in China which is key to

non-aeronautical revenue.

Governance

The company’s decision of using redundant cash to fund capex of

the satellite terminal helps improve return.

Offline travel/leisure spending outgrowing overall

consumption

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17

%

Domestic tourism revenue growth (YoY%)

Total retail sales volume growth (YoY%)

13

Stock example: Wuxi Biologic (China, health care)

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as of end June 2018.

*JPMAM Estimates. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are

subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.


Leading Chinese Contract Research Organization (CRO) in the biologics space

Economics

The Company is well positioned to grow well beyond forecasted global

market growth with China market CAGR forecasted to grow in the mid

30s through the duration

Duration

Strong macro drivers into the future due to enduring rise of chronic

illnesses/aging population with strong demand for biologic therapies

Governance

Strong management/scientific team with a good track record of high

quality R&D

China’s Biologics Outsourcing Market- Growing Faster than

Global Outsourcing Market with Wuxi being the dominant

player

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2017 2020E* 2023E*

Biologics Outsourcing Market Wuxi Revenue % of Market Share

Wuxi CAGR 17-23E: 41%

Industry CAGR 17-23E :18%

USD mn %

14

Stock example: Kingdee International (China, information technology)

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Updated as of end Jan 2018. ROE = Return on Equity.

JPMAM Estimates. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are

subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.


Market leader in China’s Enterprise Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Market

Economics

Free Cashflow expected to continue improving along with the

growth of its cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) business

ROE expected to recover as it moves toward SaaS-based pricing

model

Duration

Duration expected to improve substantially, as the company moves

aggressively to the subscription-based business model that has

much stronger customer stickiness and visibility in service renewal

because it’s quite difficult to switch vendors given the complexity of

ERP software embedded deeply in enterprise organisations

Governance

Management has a clear strategic direction of cloud migration

China’s enterprise software industry is expected to benefit from

accelerating spending in software

13%

3%

0%

3%3%

7%7%

8%

5%

-5%

-7%

-4%-3%

0%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

IT spending in enterprise software (L)

YoY (R)

YoY (subtracting GDP growth, R)

RMB

bn

Underinvestment

15

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc Update

16

Greater China investment professionals

* Based in China - JPMorgan Asset Management (Shanghai) Limited (Asset Management Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise)

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

As of 4th January 2019

Number of years experience: Industry/Firm as of 4th January 2019

Select GEM Global and Sector Analysts

Andrew Tan

Natural Resources

Experience: 24/11

Paul Chan

Technology

Experience: 25/19

Simmy Qi

Industrials

Experience: 8/8

Denise Valentine

Biotechnology

Experience: 23/3

Penny Tu

Internet / Media

Experience: 13/5

Richard Titherington

Head of EMAP Equities Team

Experience: 35/33

Joelian Tseng

Experience: 21/<2

Howard Wang

Head of

Greater China

Experience: 24/14

Lilian Leung

Experience: 24/9

James Yeh

Experience: 23/17

China and Greater China Growth

Rebecca Jiang

Experience: 14/2

Greater China Team Portfolio Managers

Shumin Huang

Head of

Greater China Research

Experience: 27/13

Bonnie Chang

Automobiles /

Industrials

Experience: 19/4

Robert Yen

Technology

Experience: 16/2

Elizabeth Pang

Domestic HK /

China Industrials

Experience: 14/14

Greater China Team Research Analysts

Lin He

Industrials /

Consumer

Experience: 16/<2

Dong Xu*

Experience: 16/2

Eva Wang

Consumer

Experience: 14/2

Vincent Yu

Healthcare /

Industrials

Experience: 13/6

Connie Shen

Real Estate /

Financials

Experience: 8/5

Mark Mao

Industrials

Experience: 9/2

China Income and Hong Kong Core

Taiwan Growth

Yunyun Hu*

Consumer

Experience: 10/<2

Weiying Dong

Small Cap

Experience: 13/4

Willy Chen*

Industrials

Experience: 9/<2

Elizabeth Pang

Experience: 14/14

Edward Yen

Technology

Experience: 14/<1

Li Tan

Financials

Experience: 7/7

Ansel Lin

Internet / Media

Experience: 6/<1

17

Performance

Fund launch date = 19 Oct 1993.

^ Dividends reinvested after deduction of withholding tax. Prior to 26 Jan 2016, MSCI Golden Dragon (NDR).Prior to 1 Jun 2002, MSCI Provisional Golden Dragon Index (NDR). Prior to 1 Oct 2001,

Customised benchmark (Calculated by J.P. Morgan Asset Management and comprised 40% HSI, 40% Taiwan Weighted and 20% BNP Paribas China Price). Prior to 1 Oct 1998, BNP Paribas China

Price.

* Arithmetic excess return presented.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Net Asset Value (NAV) Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis, including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income

reinvested, in GBP. The benchmark is for comparative purposes only, unless otherwise indicated in the Investment Trust’s Investment Objective and Policy.


JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc as of 31st December 2018

Three months Six months One year Three years Five years Since launch

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc -14.57 -25.73 -25.15 9.94 8.53 5.39

MSCI China Index (NDR)^ -8.60 -14.41 -13.83 14.20 10.78 4.69

Excess return* -5.98 -11.32 -11.31 -4.25 -2.26 0.71

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc 13.66 13.12 0.14 15.42 53.82 -25.15

MSCI China Index (NDR)^ 4.91 14.42 -2.07 22.81 40.73 -13.83

Excess return* 8.75 -1.30 2.21 -7.38 13.09 -11.31

Annualised performance (%)

Calendar year performance (%)

Market value

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust GBP 186.5m

Overall

10-Year

Morningstar Overall RatingsTM

18

Country and sector positions

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Individual figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and

leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the investment manager without notice


Active and absolute sector positions

Country positions

Benchmark MSCI China Index (NDR)

Portfolio

Weight (%) 117.0 35.3 22.9 1.1 0.5 -18.6

Portfolio

Weight (%) 30.6 13.1 11.3 4.8 7.7 6.4 3.4 0.7 18.8 9.5 1.1 8.3 0.0 21.8 -18.6

Relative to benchmark (%)

10.7 10.2 8.7

2.2 2.0 1.0 0.4

-1.3-4.5

-5.4 -1.0

2.0

-5.2 -5.6

-18.6-24.0-18.0-12.0-6.00.06.0

12.018.0

ConsumerDiscretionary

HealthCare

InformationTechnology

ConsumerStaples

RealEstate

Industrials Utilities Materials Financials Banks DiversifiedFinancials

Insurance Energy Comm.Services

Cash

17.0

32.9

1.3 1.1 0.5

-18.6-30.0

-10.0

10.0

30.0

50.0

China A-shares ADRs Hong Kong Taiwan Cash

Relative to benchmark (%)

19

Portfolio Fund Benchmark

Number of Holdings 66 410

12-Month Forward Price to Earnings (x) 13.4 9.9

3-5 Year Earnings Per Share Growth (%) 20.2 17.5

Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 2.4

Return on Equity (%) 19.8 15.9

Active Share (%) 81.6

Portfolio characteristics

Portfolio yield is the aggregate weighted sum of the estimated yields of the stocks in which the fund invested. It is calculated as (12-month forward DPS / Current price)*100. It is not based on the fund’s

dividend distributions.

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.


Market capitalisation (USD)

46.2

32.5

20.4

16.9

2.4

55.7

14.9 16.8

12.0

0.60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

> 30 bn 10 bn <> 30bn

4 bn <> 10 bn 1 bn <> 4 bn < 1 bn

Fund Benchmark

Benchmark MSCI China Index (NDR)

20

Appendix

21

Portfolio positions

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc as of 31st December 2018 Benchmark MSCI China Index (NDR)

Top 10 holdingsFund

weight (%)

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 12.1

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. 11.3

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. 8.3

Baidu, Inc. 4.8

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. 4.8

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 3.8

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited 2.8

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. 2.5

ENN Energy Holdings Limited 2.5

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. 2.2

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the

investment manager without notice.

Top 5 overweights

Fund

weight (%)

Relative

position (%)

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of

China, Ltd.8.3 5.0

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. 4.8 3.7

China Overseas Land & Investment

Limited3.8 2.9

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. 2.2 2.2

Shenzhou International Group Holdings

Limited2.8 2.2

Top 5 underweights

Fund

weight (%)

Relative

position (%)

China Construction Bank Corporation 0.0 -5.4

China Mobile Limited 0.0 -4.0

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 12.1 -3.5

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Limited0.0 -3.4

Bank of China Limited 0.0 -2.4

22

Investment objective and risk profile

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc

Risk profile

The value of investments and the income from them can go down and up, and you may not get back as much as you paid in. Past performance is not a

guide to the future.

Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.

Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and

systems. Shares may also be traded less frequently than those on established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and

selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short-term price fluctuations.

This fund may use derivatives for investment purposes or for efficient portfolio management.

External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time.

This trust may utlilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.

This trust may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.

Please refer to the Investor Disclosure Document, latest annual report, and Key Information Document (KID) for more information relating to the Company

Investment objective

The Company aims to provide long term capital growth by investment in companies which are quoted on the stock exchanges of

Hong Kong, China and Taiwan or which derive a substantial part of their revenues or profits from these territories. The Company has

the ability to use borrowing to gear the portfolio within the range of 10% net cash to 20% geared in normal market conditions.

23

Important information

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein do not form part of an offer, nor are they to be taken as advice or a recommendation, to buy or sell any

investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have

been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily

reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are

unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all

inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the

income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange

rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current

and future results. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment

products, there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase

& Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and

regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy

www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy.

Investment is subject to documentation. The Investor Disclosure Document, Key Features and Terms and Conditions and Key Information Document can be obtained free of charge

from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust. This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and

regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

Material ID: 0903c02a824c0251

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