bankability and return on investment of wind energy projects
DESCRIPTION
This presentation describes the effect of local wind measurements on the cost of financing and optimal performance. Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energy at Ecofys, held this presentation at the National Wind Energy Congress in Amersfoort, The Netherlands on 16 May 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Bankability and return on investment of wind energy
projects: effect of local wind measurements on the cost
of financing and optimal performance
16 May 2013
Michiel Müller
© ECOFYS | |
What's new?
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
windcube
(LeoSphere)
ZephIR
(ZephIR ltd.)
Wind Iris
(Avent Lidar Technology)
OCS 210
(Bluescout)
SpiDAR
(Pentalum)
Windar
(Windar Photonics)
© ECOFYS | |
And what's the implication?
• Wind resource assessment
• Power curve validation
• Performance management
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
General method
Terrain Wind speed
Meteorological
model
Wind climate
Technique
Yield
model
AEP
Wind Resource Assessment Yield Prediction
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Wind speed – Climate based
10 m
Source: Upwind
Source: KNMI
~10s km
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Wind speed – Climate based
CONS PROS
Quality/consistency of data
(in NL: KNMI) Availability of data
Measurement height Low cost
Location Long-term
Ecofys disclaimer Many sites
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Do we have simple terrain in the
Netherlands?
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
Open farmland, (polder) Close to coast, city, industry
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Wind speed – On-site measurements
2-4 D
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Impact of measurement on uncertainty
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Wind speed – On-site measurements
CONS PROS
Planning Acceptability/bankability
Cost Least uncertainty/Lowest risk
Short-term Best financing conditions
MCP needed
Other characterisation of wind
climate: turbulence, extremes,
wind shear
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Uncertainties in WRA+YP
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
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Remaining uncertainties
• Future climate
• Other (future) developments
• Pv-curve
• Availability
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Requirements overall
• Independent
• Transparant (traceable)
• Quality
• Reputation
• References
• State of the art
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Requirements wind speed data
On-site wind measurements
• Type of device (mast,
remote sensing)
• Duration
• Observation height
• Quality
• Documentation
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Requirements wind speed data
Wind speed information
• Meteorological data
• Quality
• Always needed for reference
• Modelled data
• Mesoscale model results
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Wind measurements
• Best practice up till now
• IEC compliant mast with cup anemometers
• calibration
• 2/3 hub height
• Industry acceptance
• LiDAR acceptable
• Equivalent wind speed concept
• New IEC standard
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
LiDARs at Test site Lelystad
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Ecofys position paper (1)
LiDAR as good as mast, if:
• Type has been tested sufficiently
• Specimen has been validated against mast
• Procedure and data collection IEC compliant
Currently only Leosphere and Zephir meet criteria
Ecofys is of the opinion LiDAR can be comparable
with mast
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Campaign strategies
• Climate-based assessment. No LiDAR or on-site
met mast
• On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.
No LiDAR
1. LiDAR stand-alone on-site, single position
2. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.
LiDAR next to mast for 3 months
3. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.
LiDAR at 4 sites (seasonal sampling)
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Effect on uncertainty
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Other opportunties for LiDAR
• Capital efficient portfolio wind resource strategy
• Pv-curve validation in situ
• Performance management
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Capital efficient portfolio wind resource
strategy
Effect of seasonality (3 months campaign)
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Capital efficient portfolio wind resource
strategy
Effect of seasonality (all seasons covered)
12 months
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Pv-curve validation in situ
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Consolidating Islands of Information
Infrared Thermography
Vibration Analysis
Non-Destructive Testing
Lubrication Analysis
Motor Circuit Analysis
Operator Rounds
Maintenance Rounds
Visual Inspections
Data Historians
PLC’s
SCADA
DCS
Recommended Tasks
Analysis Results
PROCESS CONTROL TOOL
DCS
PLC’s
Data Historians
SCADA
INSPECTIONS
Visual Inspections
Maintenance Rounds
Operator Rounds
RCM
Analysis Results
Recommended Tasks
PREDICTIVE TOOLS
Infrared Thermography
Motor Circuit Analysis
Non-Destructive Testing
Lubrication Analysis
Vibration Analysis
Asset
Performance
Management for
Wind Power
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
© ECOFYS | |
Take home
• Terrain in the Netherlands may be complex
• Measurements (full year) reduce uncertainty
• LiDAR can replace met mast (position paper I)
• Sharing LiDAR between campaigns can increase
cost effectiveness (position paper II)
• LiDAR/met mast combination for large sites
• Rapid deployment of LiDAR enables power curve
validation
• Asset performance management can improve
value of wind farms
Michiel Müller 16/05/2013
For more information, please contact:
Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energy
tel: +31 (0)30 662-3885
e-mail: [email protected]