josephine k musango erc colloquium 31 july 2012. introduction the goal of technology assessment is...
TRANSCRIPT
Josephine K Musango
ERC Colloquium31 July 2012
Introduction The goal of technology assessment is to generate policy
options for societal problems
Can technology, which has economic and societal benefits, also liberate the environment from human impact?
Can technology decouple goods and services from demands on planetary resources?
Can technology do the following to the economy?:o dematerializeo decarbonize
Are the net impacts of technology positive or negative?
Technology sustainability assessment..
Lack of clear criteria for conducting proper assessment
TA concept treated as universal – strongly tied with western world
TA has relatively poor disciplinary coordination and integration
Most TA do not take account of holistic view – static in nature
No formal TA practice to support energy policy formulation
TA focuses mainly on impacts or outcomes of the technology
Application of sustainability based criteria is not common in TA or decision-making
Technology sustainability assessment..
Who? o Scientists, industry, policy makers, NGO’S, Civil society…
Why? o “How can the contribution of technology development for
sustainability be improved?”
What? o Dialogues among the science, policy and development
communities
Need for change in social and institutional dimensions – user practices, regulations and industrial networks
Multiple and competing goals from social dimension
Differing perception about the technology being developed
SATSA framework
• Uncertain• Dynamic • Systemic• Cumulative
• Inherently dynamic process
• Societal worldviews and values
• Long term future orientation
• Multi-domain problems• Differential & difference• Time and time evolution
Methodological framework
STEP 1: Sustainable technology development
-Identify the need for energy technology development- Define the sustainability goals for energy technology development
STEP 2: System dynamics modeling
Model the domain of energy technology application
New energy technology assessment
Technology accommodation in the energy sector domain
BIOTSA model
Assess the impact of proposed biodiesel production development on selected
sustainability indicators in the Eastern Cape
Study area
Stakeholders in biodiesel production
CROP PRODUCTION(farming)e.g. canola, soybeans
ACTORS- Rural communities- Private farmers
BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
ACTORS-Private local investors- Private foreign investors- Government entities
BIODIESEL MARKET
- Export market- Local market- Animal feed- Other (chemicals)
Scope of BIOTSA model: crop production and biodiesel production
STEP 1: Identified needs for biodiesel production
Addressing rural poverty
Rural development and black economic empowerment
Job creation particularly in the feedstock production
STEP 1: Identified sustainability indicators Indicator Symbol Description Units
Eco
nom
ic
Biodiesel production ECO1 This measures the quantity of biodiesel production
Litre/year
Biodiesel profitability
ECO2 This measures the profitability from biodiesel production
Rand/year
Eastern Cape GDP ECO3 This measures the per capita GDP in the Eastern Cape Province
Rand/person/ year
Soc
ial
Employment SOC1 This measures the labour force participation due to the investment in the biodiesel plant capacity
Person
Community perception
SOC2 This is represented by the effect of community perception on land conversion for biodiesel production crops and measures the community acceptance to grow these crops
Dimensionless
Env
iron
men
tal
Land use change ENV1 This measure the changes in land use due to the introduction of biodiesel production. This includes changes in fallow land, agricultural land, biodiesel crop land and livestock land.
Ha
Air emission ENV2 This measures the total avoided air emissions due to investment in biodiesel production
kg CO2/year
Biodiesel by-product ENV3 This measures the amount of accumulated glycerol resulting from biodiesel production.
Litre/year
Water use ENV4 This measures water use as a result of biodiesel production
Litre/year
Energy use ENV5 This measures energy use as a result of biodiesel production
kWh/year
STEP 2: System dynamics modelling - BIOTSA
12
BIOTSA model divided into eleven sub-models that provide outputs for the sustainability indicators
Land
Water
Emissions
Electricity demand
Employment biodiesel plant
Biodiesel profitability
Cost of operation
GDP
Community perception
Biodiesel production
Population
Environmental
indicators Economic
indicators
Social indicators
Baseline results: economic indicators
400 M Litre/year
0 Rand/year20,000 Rand/person/year
200 M Litre/year-400 M Rand/year13,000 Rand/person/year
0 Litre/year-800 M Rand/year
6,000 Rand/person/year
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095Time (Year)
Biodiesel production : baseline Litre/yearBiodiesel profitability : baseline Rand/yearPC real GDP : baseline Rand/person/year
Baseline results: social indicators
400 Person0.4 Dmnl
200 Person0.2 Dmnl
0 Person0 Dmnl
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095Time (Year)
Employment biodiesel plant : baseline PersonPerception of biodiesel crops benefits : baseline Dmnl
Baseline results: environmental indicators (a) (b)
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
1000000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Ha
Time (year)
Biodiesel crop land Fallow land Forest plantations
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Ha
Time (year)
Crop land Livestock Land Settlement land
0.00E+001.00E+082.00E+083.00E+084.00E+085.00E+086.00E+087.00E+088.00E+089.00E+081.00E+09
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Kg C
O2/
year
Time (year)
Net emission
Total air emission
Total avoided emission from biodiesel
40 M Litre/year400 M Litre/year
20 M KWh/year
20 M Litre/year200 M Litre/year
10 M KWh/year
0 Litre/year0 Litre/year0 KWh/year
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Time (Year)
Glycerol produced : baseline Litre/yearBiodiesel plant water usage : baseline Litre/yearEnergy usage biodiesel production : baseline KWh/year
Scenario results: perception, support, by-product use
(C) (d)
(a) (b)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Ha
Time (year)
Biodiesel crop land
PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline
0.00E+00
1.00E+08
2.00E+08
3.00E+08
4.00E+08
5.00E+08
6.00E+08
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Litr
e/ye
ar
Time (year)
Biodiesel production
PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Pers
on
Time (year)
Employment biodiesel from plant
PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline
0.00E+00
1.00E+08
2.00E+08
3.00E+08
4.00E+08
5.00E+08
6.00E+08
7.00E+08
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Kg C
O 2/y
ear
Time (year)
Total avoided emissions from biodiesel
PSBPS SBPS BPS BSS2 Baseline
BIOTSA model limitationsLimitation Description
Biodiesel market Considers a biodiesel project aimed for export market but model limited to crop production and biodiesel production chain
Implicit farming activities Assumes community can easily alter fallow land to biofuel crop land as long as there is acceptance to convert the fallow land
Feedstock logistics Detailed level of feedstock logistics excluded; e.g. biomass collection, pre-processing, storage and transportation
Employment Only employment created in the biodiesel plant (direct employments) is accounted
BIOTSA value chain insightsCrop production Biodiesel production
Need to improve community perception of biodiesel crops benefits, which result from fear and previous bad experiences
Promoting local feedstock production
Focussing on non-food land for biodiesel crop production
Local job creation at biodiesel plant level
Using by-products as part of income generation outputs
Government support in the biodiesel production
Reducing feedstock costs by sourcing locally
Conclusion
SATSA serves as a framework for science to promote a transdisciplinary approach, hence linking science-policy-business and society divide
SATSA has a potential for application in other technology development
No single strategy is capable of improving performance of sustainability indicators
Way forward
Target technology assessment on societal problems prioritized by stakeholders
Integrate appropriate mixes of disciplines, expertise and public/private sector in support of such problem-driven R&D
Link expertise and application across scales, from local to global