jordan g. powers kevin w. manningpolarmet.osu.edu/amomfw_2016/0606_1510_powers.pdf · •...
TRANSCRIPT
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Jordan G. PowersKevin W. Manning
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado, USA
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• MPAS: Model for Prediction Across Scales– MPAS= Global atmospheric model
‒ In public release since 2013: MPAS Version 4.0 by Sept. 2016
• Current Study: Initial Comparison of MPAS and WRF
‒ Testing: 5-day forecasts over Antarctica
– Setup: MPAS approximates WRF setup, but not indentical
– Caveats w/use of MPAS
Cost, physics limitations, performance
MPAS not a replacement for WRF anytime soon
Background
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MPAS— Background
• MPAS: Numerical weather prediction model engineered to operate from the global scale to the cloud scale
“MPAS-A”= MPAS-Atmosphere
• MPAS system jointly developed byNCAR and Los Alamos National
Laboratory (LANL)
• NCAR: MPAS-A primary development and support
MPAS Grid
See MPAS: http://mpas-dev.github.io/
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MPAS— Background• MPAS: Run at NCAR for real-time NWP
and research
Ex: Support of NOAA/SPC Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
• Current MPAS: Global mesh w/regional refinements
‒ No standalone limited-area grids
• MPAS System Components‒ MPAS Infrastructure – MPAS— Atmosphere MPAS-A‒ MPAS— Ocean MPAS-O– MPAS— Ice MPAS-I
MPAS-I not connected to MPAS-A
MPAS-I being linked to a different atmospheric model by LANL in CESM
Global Variable
Resolution Grid
Global Uniform
Grid
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MPAS 50-km/3-km Variable Mesh 500 mb Relative Vorticity
01 UTC 18 May–11 UTC 21 May 2013 (22 h)
Mesh spacing contours:40, 30, 20, 12, 8 & 4 km
Moore, OK Tornado 20 May 2013
MPAS: Global → Cloud Scale
MPAS 3-kmreflectivity70-hr fcst
Obsv’d compositereflectivity
22 UTC 20 May
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WRF Domains
30 km
10 km
Model SetupsWRF MPAS– 30-km/10-m grids ‒ 60-km/15-km variable global mesh– 60 vertical levels ‒ 46 vertical levels‒ Data assimilation – No DA‒ GFS first guess ‒ GFS first-guess
Terrain height (m)
MPAS Antarctic Mesh
15-km Antarctic refinement
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Forecast Review
1) Subjective Forecast Analyses
‒ Review of MPAS runs since October 2015
2) Statistical Verification
• AWS Surface Verifications: T, Wind speed, Pressure
Statistics: Bias, RMSE, Correlation
• Verification Periods
(i) 20 Oct–31 Dec 2015 (ii) 8 Feb–31 Mar 2016
Note: Model Physics(i) MPAS has a narrow set of options taken from WRF(ii) MPAS versions not the latest
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Case Review: 0000 UTC 8 April 2016 Forecast
‒ Hours shown: 24, 72, 120
‒ Sfc and 500 mb analyses
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WRF & MPAS 24-hr Forecasts SLP and 3-Hr Precip0000 UTC 9 Apr 2016 (8 Apr 0000 UTC Init)
MPAS
Forecasts aligned at 24h
961 mb
Contour interval= 4 mb
L
WRF
965 mb
L968
970
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MPAS & WRF 72-hr Forecasts SLP and 3-Hr Precip0000 UTC 11 Apr 2016 (8 Apr 0000 UTC Init)
WRF
942 mb
x
MPAS
940 mb
Contour interval= 4 mb
Forecasts similar, but WRF shows an extended trough and suggests secondary development (x)
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MPAS & WRF 120-hr Forecasts SLP and 3-Hr Precip0000 UTC 13 Apr 2016 (8 Apr 0000 UTC Init)
MPAS
942 mb
WRF
952 mb959 mb
Contour interval= 4 mb
WRF: Two lows, with a significant (959) center in western Ross Sea
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AMPS Analysis SLP0000 UTC 13 Apr 2016
MPAS120 h
WRF120 h
Contour interval= 4 mb
942
959952
966966
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WRF: Two circulation centers
MPAS & WRF 120-hr Forecasts 500 mb0000 UTC 13 Apr 2016 (8 Apr 0000 UTC Init)
WRF
4605 m
4636 m
MPAS
4554 m
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MPAS120 h
WRF120 h
AMPS Analysis 500 mb GHT, Wind0000 UTC 13 Apr 2016
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Surface Verifications
• Verifications performed with AWS obs at 70‒80 sites
• Oct.‒‒Dec. 2015 and Feb.-‒Mar. 2016 periods
• Variables: Temperature, Pressure, Wind speed
•To do: Upper-air verification comparisons
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McMurdo— Temperature Oct.‒Dec.
MPAS: Increased cold bias & RMSE
Bias: WRF= -2.8CMPAS= -4.0 C
RMSE: WRF= 4.0 CMPAS= 5.1 C
Feb.‒Mar.
Correlation: WRF= .89MPAS= .86
WRFMPAS
WRFMPASObs
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South Pole— TemperatureOct.‒Dec.
MPAS: Decreased warm biasOct.‒Dec.
Bias: WRF= 3.7 CMPAS= 3.4 C
RMSE: WRF= 4.6 CMPAS= 4.9 C
Feb.‒Mar.
Correlation: WRF= .94MPAS= .91
WRFMPAS
WRFMPASObs
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McMurdo— Pressure Oct.‒Dec.
MPAS & WRF: Similar, small biasesBias: WRF= 1.0 mbMPAS= 1.0 mb
RMSE: WRF= 2.7 mbMPAS= 2.6 mb
Feb.‒Mar.
Correlation: WRF= .96MPAS= .97
1 mb}
WRFMPAS
WRFMPASObs
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South Pole— Wind Speed
Oct.‒Dec.
MPAS: Greater bias (negative)and RMSE
Bias: WRF= 0.5 ms-1
MPAS= -1.6 ms-1
RMSE: WRF= 1.7 ms-1
MPAS= 2.3 ms-1
Feb.‒Mar.
WRFMPAS
WRFMPASObs
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WRFMPAS
Temperature— Bias
Oct.‒Dec: WRF slightly betterFeb.‒Mar: WRF better
Feb.‒Mar.Oct.‒Dec.
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WRFMPAS
Oct.‒Dec.
Wind Speed— Bias
Oct.‒Dec: MPAS slightly better
Feb.‒Mar.
WRF / MPAS comparable
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• MPAS Test Forecasts– Subjective reviews: MPAS and WRF daily forecasts
consistent through about 72 hrs, but can diverge for longer lead times
MPAS daily operation reliable
No strange behavior in MPAS
No big performance dropoff with MPAS
– Surface verifications: WRF overall better than MPAS statistically
Station results vary with parameter/season
To do: Upper-air verification & additional periods
Summary
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• MPAS Testing and Implementation in AMPS: Caveats
‒ Setups not identical: Compute and model constraintsMPAS resolution coarser than WRF: 15 km v. 10 km
MPAS physics limited
‒ MPAS significantly more expensive than WRF Estimate: MPAS ∼6X computational cost of WRF
for a 10-km Antarctic mesh
‒ Further testing and evaluation necessary
Summary (cont’d)
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End
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Model PhysicsMPAS Physics
(i) Uses a narrow set of physics options taken from WRF(ii) MPAS versions not the latest
Shared Package Areas LSM Noah (MPAS V3.3.1, WRF V3.7.1) Cu Kain-Fritsch (MPAS V3.5, WRF V3.7.1) LW rad RRTMG LW (MPAS V3.4.1, WRF, V3.7.1) Surface layer (Eta) (MPAS V3.5, WRF, V3.7.1)
Different Package Areas
PBL MPAS: YSU WRF: MYJMicrophysics MPAS: WSM-6 WRF: WSM-5 SW rad MPAS: RRTMG WRF: Goddard
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Lat-Lon Grid(UM, Global WRF)
Voronoi Grid(MPAS)
Why Voronoi Grids?
• Lat-Lon Grid Issues
– Poor scaling on computers with large numbers O(104 – 105) of processors because of necessity of a polar filter
– Local refinement is limited to nesting or problematic coordinate transformations
• Advantages of MPAS Grid over Lat-Lon Grid
– MPAS scales well on MPP architectures (no poles)
– MPAS offers flexible local refinement (variable resolution grids)
50 km ‒3 km mesh