jonathan atzmon, ise/etm dr. joan burtner, advisor last revised 03/03/15 atzmon etm 691.001,...

Jonathan Atzmon, ISE/ETMDr. Joan Burtner, Advisor

Last Revised 03/03/15

Atzmon ETM 691.001, Simulation in Healthcare, Spring 2015, Dr. Joan Burtner 1

1 2

Background


Modeling and simulation (M&S) allows for the evaluation of process improvement activities

Variety of applications of M&SHistory of M&SArena expands the M&S market

Summary of Research1) A Review of the Literature Concerning Queuing Theory2) A Review of the Literature Concerning Modeling and

Simulation3) Process Improvement Using Arena Simulation Software4) Discrete Event Simulation for Healthcare Organizations: A

Tool for Decision Making5) A Guide for Building Hospital Simulation Models6) Study on the Effect of Different Arrival Patterns on an

Emergency Department’s Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation

7) Emergency Department Simulation and Determination of Optimal Attending Physician Staffing Schedules

8) Designed to Fail: How Computer Simulation Can Detect Fundamental Flaws in Clinic Flow

9) A Simulation Model of a Hospital’s Clinical Laboratory10) Using Queuing Theory and Simulation Model to Optimize

Hospital Pharmacy PerformanceAtzmon ETM 691.001, Simulation in Healthcare, Spring 2015, Dr. Joan Burtner 3

Home Screen


General Arena (version 14.5) Model

Default Menu Bar & Toolbar



Flowchart of the General Model



Create ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelCreate Module

Generates entities that flow through the modelName = Entities Arrive to ProcessEntity Type = EntityType of Time Between Arrivals = ScheduleSchedule Name = Arrival Schedule

Schedule Module(Arrival Rate, Duration) = (40, 1); (35, 1); (25,

2); (0, 1); (35, 1); (25, 2); and (35, 1)



Process ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelSimulates an amount of time for an entity to perform or

undergo some type of procedureName = ProcessLogic

Action = Seize Delay Release Resources

Type = Resource Resource Name = Process Resource Quantity = 1

Delay Type = Triangular Units = Minutes Minimum = 1 Value (Most Likely) = 2 Maximum = 3



Variable & FailuresVariable

Placed above the Process moduleIndicates the current number of entities in the queue

waiting to be processed by the Process ResourceFailures

File/Template Panel/Advanced ProcessAllows for the simulation of resource downtimeResource Module

Failure Name = Resource Failure Failure Rule = Preempt

Failures Module Type = Time Up Time = 4 hours Down Time = 1 hour



Decide ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelSimulates decision-making based on chance

or a conditionName = DecideType = 2-way by ChancePercent True (0 – 100) = 15



Dispose ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelRemoves entities from the modelRecords entity statistics for the reportName = Entities Depart Process



Record ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelName = Record # of Entities Sent to True

NodeType = CountValue = 1Counter Name = # of Times Entities Sent to

True Node



Assign ModuleLocated in the Basic Process template panelName = Change Entity PictureAssignment

Type = Entity PicturePicture.Box



Plot of the Measure of InterestData Series tab/Add buttonSeries 1 Properties/Source Data/ExpressionBasic Process Variables/Queue/Current Number

in QueueAxes tab

Maximum value of the Time (X) Axis = 540MajorIncrement value of the Time (X) Axis = 60Maximum value of the Left Value (Y) Axis = 40AutoScaleMaximum = False

Titles tabHeader’s Text = Number in Process Queue

Legend tabUncheck the Show Legend menu option



Running the ModelRun/Setup

Project Parameters Project Title Analyst Name Statistics Collection

Reports Category Overview

Replication Parameters Replication Length Base Time Units Number of Replications

Run/Check ModelPlay button



Reduction of the Queue LengthScenario 1 – Base Scenario

No changes to general model previously definedScenario 2 – Probability Distribution of the Process

Use Arena’s Input Analyzer to develop a probability distribution of the Process delay Data file in the format Formatted Text (Space Delimited) File/New File/Data File/Use Existing Fit/Fit All

Weibull distribution with scale parameters (β, α) = (0.734, 0.795)

Scenario 3 – Increased Capacity of the ResourceIn the Resource module, change the capacity of the

Process Resource from one to twoAtzmon ETM 691.001, Simulation in Healthcare, Spring 2015, Dr. Joan Burtner 16

Arena’s Input and Output Analyzer

Reduction of the Queue Length (Continued)

Number of Replications = 100Statistic module

Name = # Entities in Process QueueType = OutputExpression = NQ(Process.Queue)Report Label = # Entities in Process QueueOutput File = scenario#

For # is 1, 2, or 3




One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)Objective = Determine which scenario resulted

in the smallest number of entities in the Process queue

Procedures Arena’s Output Analyzer/Analyze/One-Way ANOVA Add the three data files (one for each scenario) with

the replications lumped Comparison Method = Tukey Confidence Level = 0.95




One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)Purpose = Compare the mean number of

entities in the Process queue for each of the three scenarios

Hypotheses H_0: μ_1 = μ_2 = μ_3 H_1: At least one scenario differed in the mean

number of entities in the Process queue




One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)Results



Research OpportunitiesBusiness, industry, education, healthcare,

and governmentProcess Improvement Tools

One-Way ANOVAControl ChartsCheck SheetsPareto ChartsCause-and-Effect DiagramsDefect Concentration DiagramsScatter Plots


Further OpportunitiesResources

Courses: ISE 403 – Modeling and Simulation; ETM 607 – Modeling and Simulation

Dr. Scott Schultz; Dr. Pablo Biswas YouTube

Other ApplicationsFit a statistical distribution to a data set using

Arena’s Input AnalyzerOther modeling capabilities such as forklifts

and conveyor beltsReminder = ONE directory folder per project


jonathan atzmon, ise/etm dr. joan burtner, advisor last revised 03/03/15 atzmon etm 691.001,...

Documents

simulation ms

computer simulation

general modelatzmon

joan burtnerflowchart

healthcare organizations

clinic flowa simulation

ms marketatzmon etm

general arena version