Joint Action Group for Operational Community

Modeling (JAG/OCM) updateSpring COPC 2010

Mr. Evan KucheraJAG/OCM Chair

2

Overview

JAG/OCM membership

Status of Initiatives COPC AI 2009 1-7: AFWA, FNMOC, and NAVOCEANO will review,

sign, and implement the WestPac alignment/backup plan document, Option 1, and continue to explore implementation of Option 2.

COPC AI 2009 2-9: JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document.

COPC AI 2009 2-10: JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations.

Recommendations

3

JAG/OCM Membership

AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair)

NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta

FNMOC—Roger Stocker

NAVO—Frank Bub

NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus

CNMOC—Steve Payne

OFCM—Ken Barnett

4

Interagency Environmental Modeling Concept of Operations (IEMCO)

Signed 18 Jan 2008: 0-3 year plan for interagency modeling

AFWA to use NCEP’s NAM in North America AFWA and FNMOC to align WRF/COAMPS domains

OCONUS for backup support and eventually ensembles Migration to common software

5

COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup

Summary: FNMOC/AFWA align one domain (WestPac) and exchange minimum set of necessary variables on identical grid Serves as “hot” backup in case of outage Pathfinder for full alignment of common-area domains Pathfinder for future ensemble alignment

6

COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup

Task largely complete AFWA implemented WestPac WRF domain that matched

operational FNMOC COAMPS domain NAVO was able to ingest and use AFWA grids to

initialize ocean models Still some technical issues utilizing “come and get it”

data servers being worked Option 2 (expanded window for NAVO) still not feasible

with current resources

7

COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA alignment

Summary: Attempts to address this task revealed fundamental problems with the backup/alignment plan

FNMOC does not yet have the resources to run such a large area at ~18 km resolution

8

COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA Alignment

Other issues—more than just a lack of resources Alignment is a major change for both centers Reluctance from some to use significant resources to cover

areas of low operational importance Flexibility to make future changes is restricted once aligned Ensemble development tracks currently very different

AFWA desires to go operational in late 2010 with multiple mesoscale domains

FNMOC taking slower and more limited approach—several years from operations

9

COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA Alignment

FNMOC proposed graphics-based backup as interim step until resources are available for alignment Domains need not match exactly, but still need to be modified to cover

key geographical areas Run “cold” only as needed (centers exchange priorities) Gridded data would come at next step

AFWA 16 WS proposed using global models All areas are covered with gridded data—NCEP would need be

leveraged as well Still need to ensure necessary variables are produced Horizontal resolution degradations are large (40-55 km vs. 15-18 km)

10

COPC AI 2009 2-9SWA Alignment

Original alignment plan (IEMCO) Requires additional computing resources and much higher prioritization

to accomplish at the centers Currently, centers are working many other tasks—middle managers

reluctant to work on alignment (major change) without higher prioritization

Result still worth working toward—not impossible

Modified alignment plan (vice IEMCO plan) If a simpler approach is desired, what gets sacrificed (use of gridded

data, horizontal resolution, etc) Can be accomplished more rapidly and with fewer

resources/disruptions

11

COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation

Focus has been on mechanism to get new algorithms into operations NCAR working on unified post-processor for NCEP AFWA proposed leveraging that effort for the wider community,

NCAR/NCEP concurred Navy has reservations with using quasi-government entity for software

repository AFWA business model is to use non-DoD/DoC community software—not

sure how to reconcile

Benefits Not only easy sharing across OPCs but also more rapid transition from

research to operations

12

COPC AI 2009 2-10Algorithm Sharing/Implementation

Establish working group? Meeting of interested stakeholders to be held at NCAR

in late June (given COPC concurrence) Group will decide change management, IA, software

structure, input/output requirements Address needs of differing model datasets Understand and address Navy concerns with NCAR

13

JAG Recommendations

Implement WestPac model domain (COPC AI 2009 1-7) Close

Alignment of SWA domains (COPC AI 2009 2-9) Decision on future development path requested

Algorithms/Post-Processing (COPC AI 2009 2-10) Concurrence on plan to house software at NCAR,

develop operational plan

14

Backup Slides

15

IEMCO: In support of U.S. National Security Strategy, AFWA and FNMOC will mutually coordinate and run limited area windows over 4-5 fixed theaters (SE Asia/West Pac, Europe, SW Asia, Central America/Caribbean/N South America, and if needed, Africa).

Immediate focus will be to adjust current DoD theater windows for spatial and resolution alignment.

COAMPS RegionsCOAMPS RegionsCOAMPS Regions

SWASIA

Northern IO

WPAC

EUROPEWATL

EPACEPAC

CENTAMCENTAM

SWA

6km Nest forecast to 30 hrs

18km Nest forecast to 84 hrs27km Nest forecast to 48 hrs27 km Nest forecast to 72 hrs

18km Nest forecast to 48 hrs18km Nest forecast to 72 hrs

WAFRICA

WPAC