john pomeroy, (saskatchewan) sean carey (carleton ... · • john pomeroy, chair • sean carey,...
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John Pomeroy, John Pomeroy, (Saskatchewan),(Saskatchewan),Sean Carey Sean Carey (Carleton),(Carleton),
Richard Essery Richard Essery (Wales),(Wales),Raoul Granger Raoul Granger (NWRI/EC),(NWRI/EC),Masaki Hayashi Masaki Hayashi (Calgary),(Calgary),
Rick Janowicz Rick Janowicz (Yukon Environment),(Yukon Environment),Phil Marsh Phil Marsh (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),
Scott Munro Scott Munro (Toronto),(Toronto),Alain Pietroniro Alain Pietroniro (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),
William Quinton William Quinton ((WilfridWilfrid Laurier),Laurier),Ken Snelgrove Ken Snelgrove (Newfoundland),(Newfoundland),
Ric Soulis Ric Soulis (Waterloo),(Waterloo),Chris Spence Chris Spence (Saskatchewan/EC), (Saskatchewan/EC),
Diana Verseghy Diana Verseghy (Waterloo/EC)(Waterloo/EC)
and 16 collaborators fromand 16 collaborators from
Environment Canada, Environment Canada, Alberta Environment, Alberta Environment,
Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Natural Resources Canada,
UnivUniv Guelph, Univ Idaho, Guelph, Univ Idaho, UnivUniv Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan, UnivUniv Western Ontario, Western Ontario,
UnivUniv Waterloo, Waterloo, USDAUSDA--ARSARS
A Network of the
BackgroundBackground• Declining annual or earlier peak discharge in
many cold regions streams and rivers (Rockies and Northern Canada)
• Increasing consumptive use of Rocky Mountain water in Prairie Provinces
• Uncertainty in engineering design for small to medium size ‘ungauged’ basins undergoing resource development and restoration (oil & gas, diamond mines, other mines)
• Opportunity to couple atmospheric-hydrological models with cold regions components for forecasting weather generation, streamflow to Arctic Ocean, flooding, improved climatology
Naturalized FlowNaturalized Flow of South Saskatchewan of South Saskatchewan River entering Lake Diefenbaker River entering Lake Diefenbaker
Decline of ~1.5 billion m3 over ~90 years (~ -15%) in natural flowDecline of ~1.1 billion m3 over ~30 years (~ -15%) in actual flowUpstream consumption of naturalized flows up to 7%-42% in last 15 years
02,000,000,0004,000,000,0006,000,000,0008,000,000,000
10,000,000,00012,000,000,00014,000,000,00016,000,000,00018,000,000,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ann
ual F
low
m3
Natural Actual
Date of Spring FreshetDate of Spring FreshetHay River at Hay RiverDate of Annual Freshet Peak
90
120
150
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Julia
n D
ay
May
April
Mackenzie River at Fort SimpsonDate of Annual Peak Discharge
120
150
180
210
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Julia
n D
ay
May
June
July
Courtesy Derek Faria, INAC
Cold Regions Hydrology on Complex TerrainCold Regions Hydrology on Complex Terrain
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mean Energy (W/m2)
ValleyBottom
South Face North Face
Melt + InternalNet RadiationGround HeatSensible HeatLatent Heat
20o slopesSouth Face
North FaceValley Bottom
Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological PredictionPrediction::CurrentCurrent ParadigmParadigm -- uncoupleduncoupled
Extracted atmosphericmodel forcing
Atmosphericmodel (3D)with its own
surface scheme (1D)
Hydrological model (lumped or 2D)with its own land-surface scheme (LSS)
IP3 TargetsIP3 Targets• Understanding key climate system processes
relating to the hydrometeorology of cold regions,• Parameterizing the land surface hydro-
meteorological processes that control the coupled atmospheric-hydrological system in cold regions;
• Validating and improving models for weather, water and climate systems leading to better prediction and simulation of related atmospheric impacts on water resources and surface climates in cold regions.
IP3 IP3 –– Goals and Theme StructureGoals and Theme Structure
• Theme 1 Processes: Advance our understanding of cold regions hydrometeorological processes
• Theme 2 Parameterisation Develop mathematical parameterisation of cold regions processes for small to medium scales
• Theme 3 Prediction Evaluate and demonstrate improved hydrological and atmospheric prediction at regional and smaller scales in the cold regions of Canada
• Ultimately – contribute to multiscale assessment of coupled climate system, weather and water resources in cold regions
IP3 MethodologyIP3 Methodology• Multiple-scale near-surface observations of snow,
water body, frozen soil and permafrost mass and energy fluxes at IP3 research basins.
• Development of improved process algorithms for small to medium scales, evaluated at IP3 research basins
• Incorporation of improved process parameterisations into coupled land surface – hydrology models
• Simulation of water resources and the near-surface atmospheric fluxes at multiple scales in cold regions
• Evaluation of progress in coupled model predictions of discharge, water storage, water balance, snow cover, soil moisture, soil frost, evaporation at IP3 research basins and in larger domains.
Processes and Parameterisation ofProcesses and Parameterisation of• Cold Regions Terrestrial System
– Drainage network connectivity– Frozen soil infiltration and drainage
• Cold Regions Open Water – Ice growth and decay, snow on lake ice– Advection of energy to small lakes
• Snow and Ice Processes– Snow Redistribution– Spatial variability of snowmelt– Improved turbulent transfer in complex terrain– Glacier-scale katabatic cooling effects– Upscaling turbulent transfer relationships
IP3 Research Basins IP3 Research Basins –– multiscale observations multiscale observations of cold regions hydrology and meteorologyof cold regions hydrology and meteorology
IP3 IP3 Research BasinsResearch Basins
Trail Valley Creek, arctic tundra
Havikpak Creek, taiga woodland
Baker Creek, Subarctic shield lakes
Wolf Creek, subarctic tundra cordillera
Scotty Creek, permafrost wetlands
Lake O’Hara, wet alpine
Marmot Creek, Dry subalpine
Peyto Creek, glacierized alpine
ScalingScalingResolution 1 m 100 m 100 m - 2 km 2 - 10 km 10 km - 10 km
Landscape type Pattern/tileTile/HRU Tile/HRU Grid/small basin Multi-grid/medium basin Multi-gridPoint Hillslope Sub-basin Basin Mesoscale Regional;
Prediction TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice
Parametrization TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice
Process TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice
MESH MESH MESH MESHMODELS CHRM CHRM CHRM CHRM
CEOP Hydrology CEOP HydrologyQuinton CFCAS Study---------------> <----------------------------------MAGS
IP3 Scaling Methodology
Previous LSS Scaling Methodology
Integrating the TOP DOWN and BOTTOM UP approaches
PredictionPrediction• Cold
Regions Hydrology Model at basin scale
• Land surface hydrology model evaluation and development
• Evaluation of GEM-LAM and CRCM
Mackenzie Basin
Peace-Athabasca Sub Basin (Mackenzie)
Saskatchewan BasinColumbia River
Basin
1
2
3
4
5
Wolf Creek(Subarctic Tundra
Cordillrea)
Scotty Creek(Permafrost Wetlands)
Baker Creek(Subarctic Shield
Lakes)
Trail Valley Creek (Arctic Tundra)
Havikpak Creek(Taiga Woodland)
Lake O'Hara(Wet Alpine)
Marmot Creek(Subalpine Forest)
RCM Domain
GEM Domain North
GEM Domain South1
24
Peyto Creek(Glaciated Alpine)
5
3
ModModéélisation Environnementale Communautaire,lisation Environnementale Communautaire,MECMEC
Atmosphericmodel (3D)
Surface
Hydrological
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”mode
Atmospheric
scheme (1D)
Hydrologicalmodel (2D)
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”modeExtracted atmospheric
model forcings
Hydrological model (lumped or 2D)with its own LSS
Atmosphericmodel (3D)with its own
surface scheme (1D)
Anticipated Results: ProcessesAnticipated Results: Processes
• New soil physics parameters for organic and frozen soils
• Control of lateral flow established for various cold regions environments
• Influence of glaciers on regional climate fields• Improved turbulent transfer relationships over
snow and glacier ice in complex terrain• Improved short and longwave relationships for
vegetation canopies on snow-covered slopes
Anticipated Results: ParameterisationAnticipated Results: Parameterisation
• Runoff and streamflow – variable contributing area based on energy and moisture state, ‘fill and spill’ runoff
• Small lakes – advection, evaporation and lake ice effects
• Mass change, phase change, radiation and turbulent fluxes from snow – upscaled radiation and turbulent fluxes, snow covered area depletion, blowing snow redistribution
Anticipated Results: PredictionAnticipated Results: Prediction• MESH for cold regions – developed and tested• CRHM for small northern and mountain basins• Improved prediction in ungauged basins –
streamflow prediction with less calibration of model parameters from gauged flows
• Improved weather prediction – quantify importance of land-atmosphere feedback in cold regions
• Improved climate prediction – benefits to improved land surface scheme physics and parameterisation
IP3 Organisational StructureIP3 Organisational Structure
Board of Directors
Scientific Committee
Theme 1Processes
Theme 2Parameterisation
Theme 3Prediction
Collaborative Agencies & User Sector
International Advisor
International Science
Initiatives: GEWEX,
IPY, CLIC, PUB
IP3 Scientific CommitteeIP3 Scientific Committee
• John Pomeroy, Chair• Sean Carey, Theme 1, Processes• Bill Quinton, Theme 2, Parameterisation• Al Pietroniro, Theme 3, Prediction• Diana Verseghy, member at large• Network Manager, Secretary
IP3 Board of DirectorsIP3 Board of Directors
• Hok Woo, Chair, McMaster Univ.• Tim Aston, CFCAS• Dan Moore, UBC• John Pomeroy, PI• Bob Reid, INAC, Yellowknife• Vincent Fortin, EC, Montreal• Network Manager, Secretary
IP3 SecretariatIP3 Secretariat
• Network and Information Manager– Network Management– Finances– Web– Data
• GEM Modeller – NWP modeling for domains around study basins, coupled modelling
• CRHM Modeller – develop CRHM platform for general application in parameterisation studies
IP3 International Science LinkagesIP3 International Science Linkages
GEWEX
PUB
IPY
CliC
IP3
Water Resources
Climate High Latitudes and Altitudes
Societal Relevance
Scientific Advance
Observational Advance
IP3 OutputsIP3 Outputs• Improved understanding of cold regions hydrology at
scales that were poorly understood• Improved environmental predictive capability in cold
regions at requested spatial scales by inclusion of improved processes, snow and ice, spatial patterns, frozen ground, drainage => CRHM, MESH
• Improved hydrological and atmospheric modelperformance at multiple scales, e.g. CRCM, GEM, MEC, ultimately GCM
• Unique observational dataset archive• Enhanced Canadian capacity in cold regions hydrology
and meteorology in response to greater water resource demands.