john michael riley mississippi state universityplanted acres, by state (1,000) 0 200 400 600 800...
TRANSCRIPT
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Peanut Situation and Outlook
John Michael Riley
Mississippi State University
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U.S. Situation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Pro
du
ctio
n (
mil
lbs)
:: Y
ield
(lb
s/ac
)
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Production Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield
Source: USDA, NASS
-
Planted Acres, by state (1,000)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
VIRGINIA
TEXAS
SOUTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA
NORTH CAROLINA
NEW MEXICO
MISSISSIPPI
GEORGIA
FLORIDA
ALABAMA
Source: USDA, NASS
-
Production, by state (mil lbs)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
VIRGINIA
TEXAS
SOUTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA
NORTH CAROLINA
NEW MEXICO
MISSISSIPPI
GEORGIA
FLORIDA
ALABAMA
Source: USDA, NASS
-
Yield (lbs/ac)
y = 95.096x + 2490.7 R² = 0.7584
1,250
1,750
2,250
2,750
3,250
3,750
4,250
4,750
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S.
Source: USDA, NASS
-
Yield (lbs/ac)
y = 95.096x + 2490.7 R² = 0.7584
1,250
1,750
2,250
2,750
3,250
3,750
4,250
4,750
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S.
ALABAMA
FLORIDA
GEORGIA
MISSISSIPPI
NEW MEXICO
NORTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA
SOUTH CAROLINA
TEXAS
VIRGINIA
Source: USDA, NASS
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Consumption
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,0001
98
9/9
0
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
Food Exports Crush
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
-
Use vs Production
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,0001
98
9/9
0
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
Food Exports Crush Production
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
-
Peanut Exports
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,4001
98
9/9
0
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
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Peanut Consumption Ratios
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Use
Cat
ego
ry a
s %
of
Tota
l USe
Food Exports Crush
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Production vs Stocks
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
Stocks Production
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
-
Stocks & Price
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Pri
ce, $
/to
n (
line
)
Sto
cks,
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
(bar
s)
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
-
Stocks/Use -vs- Price
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Pri
ce (
$/t
on
)
Sto
cks/
Use
Stocks/Use
Price
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
-
Monthly USDA Peanut Price ($/t)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Se
pte
mb
er2
01
2
Oct
ob
er2
01
2
No
vem
ber
20
12
De
cem
ber
20
12
Jan
uar
y20
13
Fe
bru
ary2
01
3
Mar
ch2
01
3
Ap
ril2
01
3
May
20
13
Ju
ne2
01
3
Ju
ly2
01
3
Au
gust
20
13
Se
pte
mb
er2
01
3
Oct
ob
er2
01
3
No
vem
ber
20
13
De
cem
ber
20
13
Jan
uar
y20
14
Fe
bru
ary2
01
4
Mar
ch2
01
4
Ap
ril2
01
4
May
20
14
Ju
ne2
01
4
Ju
ly2
01
4
Source: USDA, ERS
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Peanut Balance Sheet
Source: USDA, ERS & WAOB
Mktg Year 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
------------------------------- Million Pounds ------------------------------
Carry-in 1,031.31 2,130.10 1,828.75 1,515.94 1,003.33 2,770.75 1,858.00
Production 5,162.40 3,691.65 4,156.84 3,658.59 6,763.30 4,174.18 4,967.00
Imports 85.79 71.97 64.59 253.90 118.74 88.00 65.00
Total Supply 6,279.50 5,893.72 6,050.18 5,428.43 7,885.37 7,032.93 6,890.00
Crush 444.61 434.62 586.55 604.96 657.44 663.00 601.00
Exports 726.56 592.25 605.58 545.00 1,195.33 1,096.00 1,000.00
Food Use 2,571.32 2,674.88 2,839.70 2,805.00 2,734.84 2,865.00 2,939.00
Misc Use/Loss 406.90 363.23 502.40 470.13 527.01 530.00 498.00
Total Use 4,149.40 4,064.97 4,534.24 4,425.09 5,114.62 5,175.00 5,038.00
Ending Stocks 2,130.10 1,828.75 1,515.94 1,003.33 2,770.75 1,858.00 1,852.00
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Comments
• Current USDA price projection at 17.35-20.65 cents per pound ($347-$413 per ton) – and potentially falling
• Still working to reduce carry-over – 2014 Acres – market or policy driven?
• Future will be predicated on policy – Peanut PLC reference price: $535/ton
– 5-year Market Year Average Price (Olympic Avg): $517