joe sienkiewicz 1, michael folmer 2 and hugh cobb 3 1 noaa/nws/ncep/opc 2 university of...

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ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS USAGE AT OPC AND TAFB Joe Sienkiewicz 1 , Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch 05/01/12 NOAA Satellite Sciences Week

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Page 1: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS USAGE AT OPC AND

TAFB

Joe Sienkiewicz1, Michael Folmer2 and Hugh Cobb3

1NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC2University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS

3NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

05/01/12NOAA Satellite Sciences Week

Page 2: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

NOAA Forecast Responsibility

2 High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm

National HurricaneCenter

Page 3: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

NOAA Forecast Responsibility

3

Wind Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12

Tropical Cyclone Warning CategoriesTROPICAL STORM – 34-63 knots Force 8-11HURRICANE - >64 knots Force 12

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

National HurricaneCenter

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Page 4: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

OPC and TAFB High Seas/Offshore Marine Warnings and Forecasts Warning focus (wind) Extratropical and tropical cyclones,

orographic enhanced flows, wave generation areas

Cyclones Structure, intensity, evolution Performance of NWP analyses, forecasts

Thunderstorms Wind producers

Larger scale flow Environment Assessment of NWP

Page 5: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

TAFB Operations – Tropical Analysis

Tropical Weather Discussion Atlantic – MIATWDAT East Pacific – MIATWDEP

Primary use of AMV products in TWDs Define and estimate movement/speed of mid/upper level

synoptic scale features Estimate strength of subtropical jet core Estimate low-level winds (850-700 mb)

associated with tropical waves

Page 6: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

What is currently used?

Ocean Prediction CenterScatterometer winds

(ASCAT,OSCAT)Imagery (GOES, MSG, MTSAT)

National Hurricane CenterTropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

Scatterometer windsGOES AMV Imagery (GOES, MSG, MTSAT)

Page 7: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

Water Vapor Image Interpretation: Satellite-Derived Wind Vectors

Page 8: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

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Application of GOES-R Winds Algorithm to GOES-N/O/P

Cloud-drift winds derived from 15-minute GOES-13 11um imagery 1000 UTC 22 April 2012 – 0800 UTC 23 April 2012

Since September 2011, we have been routinely generating experimental winds from GOES-13 using the GOES-R winds algorithm (ie., nested tracking)

Setting up processing of experimental winds for GOES-15 (Apr 2012)

Supporting GOES-R PG Activity at SAB/OPC/HPC

Funded PSDI projects in place to replace heritage AMV algorithm running in NESDIS operations with GOES-R Winds algorithm GOES (funded effort) – March 2013 VIIRS (funded effort) – Dec 2012

High-Level 100-400 mb

Mid-Level 400-700 mb

Low-Level >700 mb

Page 9: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

Cloud-drift Winds derived from a Full Disk Meteosat-8 SEVERI 0.60 um image triplet centered at 1200 UTC 01 February 2007

Low-Level >700 mb

Using SEVIRI as a Proxy For the Future GOES-R ABI

Page 10: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

Using SEVIRI as a Proxy For the Future GOES-R ABI

Cloud-top Water Vapor Winds derived from Full Disk Meteosat-8 SEVERI 6.2um image triplet centered at 1200 UTC 01 February 2007

350-550 mb 250-350 mb 100-400 mb

Page 11: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

Application to Simulated ABI Imagery

High-Level 100-400 mb

Mid-Level 400-700 mb

Low-Level >700 mb

GOES-R AWG Data Proxy Team has generated a large number of simulated ABI datasets All ABI bands Various spatial and temporal

resolutions

Simulated datasets have been used by some of the algorithm teams to generate Level-2 products

Simulated datasets will support a number of tests for elements of the GOES-R ground system segment

Cloud-drift AMVs derived from a Simulated GOES-R ABI image (Band 14; 11um) triplet centered at 0000Z on 05 June 2005

Page 12: Joe Sienkiewicz 1, Michael Folmer 2 and Hugh Cobb 3 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OPC 2 University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS 3 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC/ Tropical Analysis and

Summary Geostationary products still under-utilized

resource OPC

Presently not available (NAWIPS / AWIPS II) Improve usage

diagnostic for NWP (large scale and cyclone)

Low level winds - relate to near surface winds

TAFB GOES AMV available in NAWIPS, used

Proxy products SEVERI and Simulated ABI