jica- energy policy-2018 indiaeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8014.pdf · solar wind biomas s shp total...

JICA- ENERGY POLICY-2018INDIA

Ammi Ruhama Toppo

Director

Central Electricity Authority

DATA TAKEN FROM CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY’S WEBSITE AND NATIONAL ELECTRCITY PLAN 2018

IEEJ：August 2018 © IEEJ2018

• Access at affordable prices

• Improved security and Independence

• Greater Sustainability

• Economic Growth.

KEY OBJECTIVE OF ENERGY POLICY


Energy Resource Map

• Hydro potential in NER

and upper part of NR

• Coal reserves mainly in

ER


(Source CWET, Chennai)

WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCE MAP OF INDIA


INSTALLED CAPACITY

Diesel, 838 , 0.2%

Hydro, 45403 ,13.2%

Coal, 196958 57.3%

R.E.S, 69022 20.1%

Gas, 24897 , 7.2%Nuclear, 6780, 2%

Fuel-wise Total All India Installed Capacity (MW) As on 31.05.2018

Diesel Hydro Coal R.E.S Gas Nuclear

TOTAL: 343898 MW


GENERATION(2017-18)

TOTAL 1307760.4 GWh

ALL FIGURES IN GWh

Thermal, 1036684.09, 79%

Nuclear , 38247.05, 3%

Hydro , 126133.79, 10% Bhutan import , 4856.01, 0%

RES, 101839.48, 8%

Thermal Nuclear Hydro Bhutan import RES


CAPACITY ADDITION FROM CONVENTIONAL SOURCES

40,245 41,110

62,374

88,537

19,119 21,180

54,964

99209

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1997-2002 2002-07 2007-12 2012-17

MW

TARGET ACHIEVED


CAPACITY MIX (SINCE MARCH,1981)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

80

-81

19

81

-82

19

82

-83

19

83

-84

19

84

-85

19

85

-86

19

86

-87

19

87

-88

19

88

-89

19

89

-90

19

90

-91

19

91

-92

19

92

-93

19

93

-94

19

94

-95

19

95

-96

19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-20

00

20

00

-01

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

Coal+Lignite Gas+Diesel Hydro Nuclear RES


GENERATION MIX (SINCE MARCH,2007)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Thermal Hydro Nuclear RES


Bangladesh660MW, 400MU(2016-17) 2 Links [400kV with HVDC

back to back, 132kV] EXPORT

Nepal440MW, 200MU(2016-17)

14 Links [11kV (4), 33kV (5),

132kV(5)] EXPORT

Myanmar<1MW, 0.35 MU(2016-17)

One Link [11kV] EXPORT

Bhutan1500MW, 1000MU (2016-17)

6 Links [132kV(1), 220kV(2),

400kV(3)] IMPORT

Transmission links havebeen established betweenborder states in Indianterritory (Bihar, UP,Uttarakhand, Tripura,Manipur, West Bengal, andAssam) with neighbouringcountries(synchronous/asynchronous/radial links).

Total Export & Import (2016-17) (2021-22)

Export 1100MW 2260MWImport 1500MW 5100MWNet 400MW 2840MW

Cross Border Trade of ElectricityIEEJ：August 2018 © IEEJ2018

Power Supply Position in the country

1. At present, demand supply gap at an all time low of less than 1%. This gap is on account of factors other than non-availability of power.

2. Adequate power available in the country.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Power Supply Position in terms of Peak

Peak Demand (GW) Peak Demand Met(GW) Demand Not Met (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Power Supply Postion in terms of Energy

Energy Requiremnet (MU) Energy Availability (MU) Energy Not Met (%)


Coal based capacity under reserved shut down during the current year is 15000- 25000 MW.

32.53 31.25 30.4228.65

27.225.47 25.39

23.97 23.65 23.0421.46 22.77

34.78 34.33 33.0230.62 29.45

27.37 26.58 26.15 2725.38

22.5824.62

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

T&D AND AT&C LOSSES

T&D losses (Source: PDM CEA) AT&C Losses (Source: PFC)

73.676.8 78.6 77.2 77.48

75.07 73.3269.93

65.55 64.4662.28

60.01 60.67

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-162016-17

2017-18

ALL INDIA THERMAL PLF


ALL INDIA ANNUAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY (KWH)

16.3 in DEC,1947

592 612.5 631.5671.9

717.1 733.54778.63

818.8883.64 914.41

956.641010

10751122 1149

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


226 299 370 4481,5662,047

2,531

3,049

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37

PEA

K D

EMA

ND

GW

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T B

U

YEARPEAK DEMAND ENERGY REQUIREMENT

Growth Rate (%)2016-17 to

2021-222021-22 to

2026-27CAGR of Electrical Energy Requirement

6.18 5.51

CAGR of Peak Electricity Demand

6.88 5.77

PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND-19TH ELECTRIC POWER

SURVEY

YearEnergy

Requirement (BU)

Peak Requirement

(GW)

2021-22 206 9

2026-27 273 12


Solar57%

Wind34%

Biomass6%

Small hydro3%

Renewable Installed Capacity Target

by 2022

57,260

71,768

95,319

120,772

147,541

174,998

12,289

25,475

43,035

61,693

80,899

100,000

32,280 33,578

39,078 45,305

52,258 60,000

-10,000

40,000

90,000

140,000

190,000

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

MW

YEAR

Projected Growth of RES Installed Generating Capacity (MW)

WIND

SOLAR

TOTAL


Year

Installed

capacity of

RES

(GW)

Expected Generation in (BU)

Solar WindBiomas

sSHP Total

Total Energy

Requiremen

t (BU)

Contributio

n of RES to

Total Energy

Demand(%)

2021-22 175 162 112 37 15 326 1,566 20.8%

2026-27 275 243 188 63 24 518 2,047 25.3%

Estimated Electricity Generation from RES in years 2021-22 and 2026-27

Solar50%

Wind34%

Biomass11%SHP

5%

PROJECTED ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RES BY 2021-22


BASE CASE(2017-22) ASSUMPTIONS

Years

Committed Capacity(MW)

Coal based Capacity under construction (MW)

RES Capacity by March,

2022(MW)

Retirement of Coal Based Plants

(2017-22) (MW)Hydro Nuclear Gas

2017-22 6,823 3,300 406 47,855 175,000 22,716

Capacity addition considered

BASE CASE(2017-22) RESULT

Additional Coal based capacityRequirement during 2017-22 (MW)*

Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2021-22During 2017-22*

6445 1072 56.5%

*Actual coal based capacity addition required during 2017-22 is 6,445 as per study even though 47,855 MW are expected to come between 2017-22. However, this addition of 47,855 MW of coal based capacity during 2017-22 would bring down the PLF as indicated in the result.


PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY (MARCH, 2022)

Hydro155,742.0

9.16%Coal+Lignite1,071,801.0

63.05%

Gas+Diesel82,626.0 4.86%

Nuclear62,643.0 3.69%

RES327,000.0 19.24%

Coal+Lignite217,302

45%

Gas25,736

5%

Hydro51,301 11%

Nuclear10,080

2%

Renewables175,000

37%

TOTAL 4,79,419 MW

ALL FIGURES IN MW

TOTAL 16,99,812 GWh

ALL FIGURES IN GWh


BASE CASE(2022-27) ASSUMPTIONS

Years

Committed Capacity(MW) Coal based Capacity under

constructionduring 2017-22 (MW)

RES Capacity by March,

2027(MW)

Retirement of Coal Based Plants

(2022-27) (MW)Hydro Nuclear Gas

2022-27 12,000 6,800 0 47,855 275,000 25,572

Capacity addition considered

BASE CASE(2022-27) RESULT

Additional Coal based capacityRequirement during 2022-27 (MW)

Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2026-27

46,420 1259 60.5%


PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY (MARCH, 2027)

Hydro268,859.0 12.10%

Coal+Lignite1,238,906.0

55.74%

Gas+Diesel86,182.0 3.88%

Nuclear110,696.0

4.98%

RES518,000.0 23.31%

ALL FIGURES IN MW

Coal+Lignite238,150

39%

Gas25,735

4%Hydro63,301 10%

Nuclear16,880

3%

Renewables275,000

44%

TOTAL 6,19,066 MW TOTAL 22,22,643 GWh

ALL FIGURES IN GWh


* Generation from RES also included.

India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)40 % cumulative power installed capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030

YearLikely IC

(GW)Likely IC of

Fossil Fuel (GW)

Likely IC of Non-Fossil Fuel (GW)

% of Non-Fossil Fuel in IC

March2022

479.4 243.0 236.4 49.31%

March2027

619.0 263.8 355.2 57.37%


PROJECTED CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GRID CONNECTED POWER STATIONS

YEAR

Projected Total Carbon Emissions from Coal

and Gas Based Plants(Million Tones)

Emission Rate*(KgCO2/kWh)

2015-16 859 0.732

2021-22 1026 0.604

2026-27 1173 0.524

* Generation from RES also included.


`

NAMASTE


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jica- energy policy-2018 indiaeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8014.pdf · solar wind biomas s shp total...

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