japanese government bondsmarket jgb outstanding 7. outstanding government bonds and borrowings...
TRANSCRIPT
What’s New ⇒ Central Government Debt (As of December 31, 2016) Monthly Topic ⇒ 1 Quarterly Estimates of GDP Oct.-Dec. 2016
2 Real Wages Grew by 0.7% in 2016
WHAT’S NEW
Central Government Debt (As of December 31, 2016)
On February 10, the MOF released the update on central government debt. Debt outstanding and composition as of the end of December 2016 are as follows.
Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 3.8 trillion
yen to 1,066.4 trillion yen from the end of September (1,062.6 trillion yen). This is because the total outstanding of FILP bonds increased by 2.2 trillion yen.
The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp
The end of December 2016
(Actual)
The end of March 2017 (Estimate)
1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings
① General Bonds 826.4 845.3
② Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds) 94.1 96.2
③ Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 62.7 62.7
④ Financing Bills (FBs) 83.2 112.2
Total 1,066.4 1,116.4
2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts
Government-Guaranteed Debts 41.0 -
Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS
Mar. 2017 Contents 1. What’s New
Monthly Topic IR Special Office
…P.1 2. JGB Primary
Market …P.4
3. The Auctions for
Enhanced-Liquidity and JGB Buy-Back
…P.5 4. JGB Secondary
Market …P.6
5. Investor Trends and
JGB Outstanding …P.8
6. Economic and
Financial Trends …P.12
7. Information
…P.13
This Month’s Special!
(trillion yen)
Notes: 1. Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding. 2. Above "Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" includes government
bonds and borrowings held by government. 3. Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the
coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA. 4. The data as of March 31, 2017 will be released on May 10, 2017. 5. Figures for "Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts" are blank, because
these are not estimated in formulating the budget. Details: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/e201612.html
WHAT’S NEW
<Main Points>
1. Quarterly Estimates of GDP Oct.- Dec.2016
The first preliminary GDP estimate (Oct–Dec 2016) was released on Feb 13. Real GDP expanded by 0.2% (annual rate 1.0%) from the previous quarter. The growth was supported by foreign demand, which contributed 0.2% points. By demand item, Private Non-Residential Investment rose by 0.9% and Government Consumption
rose by 0.4% from the previous quarter while Private Consumption maintained the level of the previous quarter.
2. Real Wages Grew by 0.7% in 2016 According to the provisional report of the
monthly labour survey December 2016 announced by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Feb 6, real wages grew by 0.7% in 2016, gaining for the first time in five years. Nominal wages increased by 0.5%, up for
three consecutive years, partially due to increasing special cash earnings (bonus and other special payments). Base pay hikes through last spring's
labor-management wage negotiations, known as shunto, also contributed to the nominal wage rise.
Development of Real GDP (Quarterly, seasonally adjusted series)
MONTHLY TOPIC
-2-
Note1: Change from the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) Note2: Annual rate Note3: The Figures in () indicate contributions to changes in GDP. Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Note1
Note2
1.1
-0.4 -0.5
0.1
1.2 1.1
0.6
-0.2
1.2
-1.8
-0.2
0.6
1.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.6 0.40.3
0.2
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%)
Private Demand Public DemandForeign Demand Real GDP
Contributions to change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
-0.6
-1.9
-0.5-0.7
1.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.8
-2.6
1.3
0.1
-0.9-0.9
-2.8
-0.9
0.7
-1.6
-2.9
-0.7 -0.7
0.6 0.3
-1.0
-0.3
-3.9
0.5
-0.2
-0.9
-0.4
0.40.1 0.5
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real Wage Nominal Wage
(%, change from the previous year)
(CY)
Wage Growth
Note: Preliminary figure in 2016
(%)2015 2016
10~12 1~3 4~6 7~9 10~12-0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 *** 1.0-0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.0 *** -0.0
(-0.3) (0.2) (0.5) (-0.1) *** (-0.0) ***-0.5 0.0 0.9 -0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.0-0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.0 (-0.0) -0.0-0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.0 (-0.0) -0.1
Excluding imputed Rent -0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 (-0.0) -0.4-1.0 1.4 3.3 2.4 0.2 (0.0) 0.70.5 -0.3 1.3 -0.3 0.9 (0.1) 3.8
(-0.1) (-0.2) (0.2) (-0.3) *** (-0.1) ***0.3 0.9 -0.7 0.0 -0.0 (-0.0) -0.20.7 1.4 -1.1 0.3 0.4 (0.1) 1.6
-1.5 -1.1 1.1 -0.7 -1.8 (-0.1) -6.9(0.0) (0.0) (-0.0) (-0.0) *** (0.0) ***(0.0) (0.3) (-0.0) (0.4) *** (0.2) ***
Private Residential InvestmentPrivate Non-Resi. InvestmentChange in Private Inventory
Public DemandGovernment ConsumptionPublic InvestmentChange in Public Inventory
Net Exports of Goods & Services
201610~12
Gross Domestic Product
Domestic Demand
Private DemandPrivate Consumption
Consumption of Households
In the third week of February, Mr. Shibata, director, Debt Management Policy Division of the Financial Bureau, and Mr. Kon, section chief of Overseas JGB Investor Relations, visited New York and Philadelphia to have meetings with various investors such as pension funds, asset management firms, hedge funds and insurance companies. It was the first time for MOF Japan to visit Philadelphia on an IR tour. We are grateful that investors shared their opinions on current market conditions.
Around the same time, Mr. Miyoshi, director of the International Organizations Division (former director of the Debt Management Policy Division), and Mr. Jinno, deputy director of the Debt Management Policy Division, participated in the 24th OECD Global Forum on Public Debt Management, which was held for the first time in 3 years and funded by the Japanese government. Debt managers from OECD member countries and non-OECD member countries actively exchanged views on policy challenges posed by the global macroeconomic environment, and many more topics. Mr. Miyoshi contributed to the discussion by making presentations on our bond markets and auction mechanisms.
Utilizing this opportunity in Paris, Mr. Jinno had discussions with investors on Japanese economic growth as well as actively joined other countries’ delegations for dinner to exchange opinions about recent market topics, resulting in body weight growth.
IR SPECIAL OFFICE
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
-3-
Auction Results
(Bonds)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal
Coupon
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered
/Accepted (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)
12/1/2016 10-year 345 12/20/2026 0.1% 8,300.1 2,198.1 0.040% 0.032% 3.250 198.2 13.5 12/8/2016 30-year 53 12/20/2046 0.6% 2,064.6 723.9 0.633% 0.617% - 75.7 0.0 12/13/2016 5-year 130 12/20/2021 0.1% 9,738.0 2,174.7 ▲0.057% ▲0.063% - 224.7 65.5 12/15/2016 20-year 159 12/20/2036 0.6% 3,323.3 993.1 0.656% 0.645% - 105.9 142.2 12/27/2016 2-year 372 1/15/2019 0.1% 9,449.7 2,094.2 ▲0.154% ▲0.157% - 205.1 256.2 1/5/2017 10-year 345 12/20/2026 0.1% 7,781.1 2,165.4 0.059% 0.056% 0.967 232.5 210.8 1/11/2017 30-year 53 12/20/2046 0.6% 2,409.3 722.7 0.755% 0.745% - 76.6 0.0 1/17/2017 20-year 159 12/20/2036 0.6% 3,502.7 990.1 0.594% 0.589% - 108.8 115.2 1/19/2017 5-year 130 12/20/2021 0.1% 7,969.6 2,175.1 ▲0.104% ▲0.116% - 224.7 0.0 1/24/2017 40-year 9 3/20/2056 0.4% 1,494.5 499.5 0.865% - - - 10.4 1/30/2017 2-year 373 2/15/2019 0.1% 10,864.5 2,094.4 ▲0.171% ▲0.173% - 205.1 344.0 2/2/2017 10-year 345 12/20/2026 0.1% 7,846.7 2,170.3 0.092% 0.087% 0.967 228.3 0.0 2/7/2017 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 21 3/10/2026 0.1% 1,042.6 399.9 ▲0.439% - - - 12.3 2/9/2017 30-year 53 12/20/2046 0.6% 2,339.0 723.2 0.920% 0.907% - 75.4 118.8 2/14/2017 5-year 130 12/20/2021 0.1% 9,262.2 2,174.6 ▲0.085% ▲0.089% - 224.6 358.9 2/23/2017 20-year 159 12/20/2036 0.6% 4,023.7 993.6 0.671% 0.669% - 105.3 164.0
Auction Results (Treasury Discount Bills)
Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date
Amounts of Competitive Bids
(billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Yield at the Lowest
Accepted Price
Yield at the Average
Price
Amounts of Bids Accepted at the
Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)
12/1/2016 3-month 649 3/13/2017 18,534.80 3,982.00 ▲0.3330% ▲0.3408% 418.00 12/7/2016 6-month 650 6/12/2017 9,916.55 3,181.37 ▲0.3523% ▲0.3603% 318.60 12/8/2016 3-month 651 3/21/2017 16,206.20 3,990.87 ▲0.3903% ▲0.4032% 419.10 12/15/2016 3-month 652 3/27/2017 14,181.00 4,011.25 ▲0.3925% ▲0.4196% 418.70 12/16/2016 1-year 653 12/20/2017 6,196.80 2,294.98 ▲0.3000% ▲0.3388% 205.00 12/21/2016 3-month 654 4/6/2017 14,995.90 4,022.87 ▲0.3952% ▲0.4125% 407.10 1/5/2017 3-month 655 4/10/2017 13,188.90 3,977.16 ▲0.3424% ▲0.3618% 412.80 1/6/2017 6-month 656 7/10/2017 11,283.90 2,911.16 ▲0.3400% ▲0.3501% 288.80 1/12/2017 3-month 657 4/17/2017 11,221.40 4,039.00 ▲0.2685% ▲0.3086% 381.00 1/18/2017 1-year 658 1/22/2018 9,646.40 2,265.29 ▲0.3261% ▲0.3350% 234.70 1/19/2017 3-month 659 4/24/2017 15,321.80 3,949.71 ▲0.2805% ▲0.2861% 400.20 1/26/2017 3-month 660 5/1/2017 12,896.90 4,002.54 ▲0.2525% ▲0.2733% 377.40 2/2/2017 3-month 661 5/8/2017 14,196.21 4,045.45 ▲0.2625% ▲0.2709% 384.50 2/8/2017 6-month 662 8/10/2017 9,393.90 2,895.68 ▲0.1853% ▲0.2235% 304.30 2/9/2017 3-month 663 5/15/2017 14,485.90 3,970.26 ▲0.1904% ▲0.2128% 419.70 2/15/2017 1-year 664 2/20/2018 11,027.50 2,262.09 ▲0.2513% ▲0.2613% 237.90 2/16/2017 3-month 665 5/22/2017 15,351.10 3,992.86 ▲0.2024% ▲0.2156% 407.10 2/23/2017 3-month 666 5/29/2017 15,557.40 4,024.57 ▲0.2505% ▲0.2593% 395.40
Auction Calendar for Feb. – Apr. 2017 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue
2/2(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 2/23(Thu) 20-year 3/22(Wed) 40-year 4/18(Tue) T-Bills (1-year) 2/2(Thu) 10-year 2/28(Tue) 2-year 3/23(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 4/18(Tue) 5-year 2/7(Tue) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 3/2(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 3/28(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 4/20(Thu) T-Bills (3-month)
2/8(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 3/2(Thu) 10-year 3/30(Thu) 2-year 4/20(Thu) 20-year
2/9(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 3/7(Tue) 30-year 4/4(Tue) T-Bills (3-month) 4/25(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity
2/9(Thu) 30-year 3/8(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 4/4(Tue) 10-year 4/26(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 2/14(Tue) 5-year 3/9(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 4/5(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 4/28(Fri) 2-year 2/15(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 3/9(Thu) 5-year 4/6(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 2/16(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 3/14(Tue) T-Bills (1-year) 4/6(Thu) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 2/16(Thu) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 3/14(Tue) 20-year 4/11(Tue) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 2/21(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 3/15(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 4/13(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 2/23(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 3/17(Fri) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 4/13(Thu) 30-year
Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Jul. 2016 ~ Dec. 2016) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 2 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 7 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 3 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 8 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 4 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 9 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 5 Deutsche Securities lnc. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.
2 JGB PRIMARY MARKET
Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.
-4-
(Until 24 February 2017)
(Until 24 February 2017)
Results of Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity
Auction Date
Amounts of Competitive
Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids
Accepted (billion yen)
Average Accepted Spread
Highest Accepted Spread
Issues Re-opened
12/6/2016 732.1 399.7 +0.018% +0.035% 20-year(137,141,142,148,149,151,152,154,157) 30-year(7,19,20,21,23, 27,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,43,46,48,49,50,51) 40-year(2,4,8)
12/21/2016 1,798.8 498.5 ▲0.006% ▲0.003% 10-year(319,320,321,322,323,324,325,326,327,328,332,334,335,341,342) 20-year(55,64,67,68,69,70,72,75,76,79,80,84,92,95,96,117,128,129,130) 30-year(4,6)
1/13/2017 972.2 199.4 ▲0.013% ▲0.005%
2-year(361,363,364,367) 5-year(118 ,122) 10-year(291,294,295,302,310,312, 315,316,319) 20-year(38,40,44)
1/26/2017 1,871.9 499.2 +0.016% +0.020% 10-year(321,322,325,326,327,328,329,330,331,332,334,335) 20-year(55 ,70,78,83,88,89,93,94,95,96,99,106,134)
2/16/2017 927.1 399.6 +0.001% +0.010% 20-year(140,142,143,145,153,157,158) 30-year(11 ,12,17,19,21,22,26,27,36,41,42,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52) 40-year(1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2/21/2017 2,057.6 497.5 ▲0.005% ▲0.003% 10-year(321,322,323,324,325,326, 327,328,338) 20-year(56,58,60,61,64,66,72,73,76,77,83,84,85,87,95,121,129,134,136,138) 30-year(2,7)
Target Zones of the Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity for the Fourth Quarter of FY 2016
10-year Inflation-Indexed
Auction Date Amounts of
Competitive Bids (billion yen)
Amounts of Bids Accepted
(billion yen)
Average Accepted
Spread (yen)
Highest Accepted
Spread (yen) Issue Numbers
12/14/2016 86.1 20.1 ▲0.023 0.080 19,20,21
3 THE AUCTIONS FOR ENHANCED-LIQUIDITY AND JGB BUY-BACK
①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year
③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year
Note.1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of December 2016. Note.2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.
Buy-back Results
(Until 24 February 2017)
(Until 31 January 2017)
-5-
②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
JN36
0
JN36
1
JN36
2
JS10
9
JS11
0
JS11
1
290
291
292
JL38
JL39
JN36
3
JN36
4
JN36
5
JS11
2
JS11
3
293
294
295
JN36
6
JN36
7
JN36
8
JS11
4
JS11
5
296
JL40
JN36
9
JN37
0
JS11
6
297
298
JS11
7
299
300
JL41
JL42
JS11
8
JS11
9
301
302
JS12
0
JS12
1
303
304
JL43
JS12
2
305
JS12
3
306
307
JL44
JL45
JS12
4
308
309
JL46
JS12
5
310
311
JL47
JS12
6
312
JL48
JS12
7
313
314
JL49
JL50
JS12
8
315
316
JL51
JS12
9
317
318
JL52 31
9
320
JL53
JL54
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
1 2 5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
321
322
JL55 32
332
4JL
56JL
57 325
JL58 32
632
7JL
59JL
60 328
JL61 32
9JL
62JL
63 330
331
JL64 33
2JL
65JL
66 333
JL67
JL68
JL69 33
4JL
70JL
71 335
JL72 33
633
7JL
73JL
74 338
JL75
JL76
JL77 33
9JL
78JL
79JL
80 340
JL81
JL82 34
1JL
83JL
84 342
JL85
JL86
JL87 34
3JL
88JL
89 344
JL90
JL91
JL92
JL93
JL94
JL95
JL96
JL97
JL98
JL99
JL10
0JL
101
JL10
2JL
103
JL10
4JL
105
JL10
6JL
107
JL10
8JL
109
JL11
0JL
111
JL11
2JL
113
JX1
JL11
4JL
115
JX2
JL11
6JL
117
JX3
JL11
8JL
119
JL12
0JL
121
JL12
2JX
4JL
123
JL12
4JL
125
JL12
6JL
127
JX5
JL12
8JL
129
JL13
0JL
131
JX6
JL13
2JL
133
JL13
4JL
135
JL13
6JX
7JL
137
JL13
8JL
139
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
5 10 15.5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
JL14
0JX
8JL
141
JL14
2JX
9JL
143
JL14
4JX
10JL
145
JX11
JL14
6JX
12JL
147
JX13
JL14
8JX
14JL
149
JX15
JL15
0JX
16JL
151
JX17
JL15
2JX
18JL
153
JX19
JL15
4JX
20JL
155
JX21
JL15
6JX
22JL
157
JX23
JL15
8JX
24JX
25JX
26JX
27JX
28JX
29JX
30JX
31JX
32JX
33JX
34JX
35JX
36JX
37JX
38JX
39JX
40JX
41JX
42JX
43JX
44JX
45JX
46JX
47JX
48JX
49JX
50JX
51JX
52JU
1JU
2JU
3JU
4JU
5JU
6JU
7JU
8
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)(billion yen)
(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Japan United States
United Kingdom Germany
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
2-year bond 5-year bond 10-year bond
20-year bond 30-year bond 40-year bond
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17
Volatility Yield (right scale)
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
2016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/11/302016/12/302017/1/31
40353020 25151050
Note: BEI (Japan : old JGBi) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the old Inflation-Indexed Bonds (issue number 16 with current maturity of 1 years and 5months) and the 10-Year Bonds (issue number 293 with current maturity of 1 years and 5months). BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds.
Source: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK U.S.A., U.K. : Bloomberg
4 JGB SECONDARY MARKET
JGB Yield Curves
Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.
Yields of JGB
Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
-6-
Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Break-Even Inflation Rates
Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance
(Until 31 January 2017)
(Until 31 January 2017)
(Until 31 January 2017)
(Until 31 January 2017)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
BEI (Japan : old JGBi) BEI (Japan : 10 year)
BEI (U.K. : 10 year) BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Bond-Lending
Bond-Gensaki
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Treasury Discount Bills
Medium Term Bonds
Long Term Bonds
Short-Term Interest Rates
Source: Bank of Japan; Japanese Banker Association
JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)
Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures
Repurchase Transactions
-7-
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(Until 31 January 2017)
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)
Basic Loan Rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
190200210220230240250
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
160
180
200
Apr 2013(Actual)
Jan 2017(Actual)
Monetary Base 155 435
JGBs 98 368
CP 1.4 2.3
Corporate Bonds 2.9 3.2
ETFs 1.7 11.8
J-REITs 0.13 0.36
Total Assets 175 482 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16
Total AssetsMonetary BaseJGBs
QQE2QQE(trillion yen)
Super long-term
Long-term
Medium-term
T-bills
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
City Banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Regional banks
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Life and non-life insurance companies
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Foreigners
Net Purchase
Net Sale
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(unit: trillion yen)(unit: trillion yen)
(unit: trillion yen) (unit: trillion yen)
-8-
Trends in Bank Assets by Types
5 INVESTOR TRENDS AND JGB OUTSTANDING Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)
BOJ Trends
Regional Banks City Banks
Source: Bank of Japan
(trillion yen) (trillion yen)
Loans
Cash and Deposits
Government Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Equities
Foreign Securities
Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares
Net
Purchase
Net
Sales
59.1
63.3 67.9
55.2 55.6
55.0 52.2 49.3 46.4
52.1
58.1 56.5
61.8 67.8
77.0 78.3 76.6 81.8
86.1
82.6 81.9
81.7 78.9
83.8 81.5
84.0 87.2
93.0 97.7
94.9
100.5
108.4
109.7 110.5 111.9
7.4
8.0
8.6
6.9
7.0 6.8 6.4
6.0 5.6
6.0
6.6 6.4
7.1 7.5
8.4 8.5 8.3 8.7 9.1
8.6 8.5 8.4 8.1
8.5 8.2 8.3
8.6 9.1
9.4 9.2
9.7
10.5 10.2
10.0 10.3
20
40
60
80
100
120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Amount of JGB Holdings (right)
Proportion of JGB Holdings (left)
(trillion yen)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
10.3%
32.0%
47.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)
②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)
③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors
-9-
JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors
Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies
Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents
Note: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)
Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Foreign Investors Presence
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Osaka Exchange
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
(trillion yen)
Source: Ministry of Finance
JGB and T-Bill Holders
-10-
Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of Sep. 2016 QE)
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)”
Note.1: "JGB" includes FILP Bonds. "T-Bill" is the sum of "Treasury Bills (TBs)" and "Financial Bills (FBs)" with a maturity of 1 year or less and TBs and FBs have been jointly issued since February 2009.
Note.2: "Banks, etc." includes "Japan Post Bank", "Securities investment trust" and "Securities Companies". Note.3: "Life and Nonlife insurance" includes Japan Post Insurance.
(trillion yen)
Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity
T-Bill Holders
Total 119.9 trillion yen
JGB Holders
Total 971.1 trillion yen
Total 1,091.0 trillion yen
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
20.3% 18.6% 17.0% 17.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 16.4% 15.1%
12.8% 11.5% 11.4%13.0% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.6%
8.3%8.2% 8.9%
8.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9%8.3% 9.0% 9.2%8.4%
9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8%8.5% 8.6% 8.4%
8.8%8.4% 7.8%
7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8%
4.2% 4.6% 5.3%
5.2%4.7%
4.9%4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2%
4.8% 5.6% 5.6%
4.9%5.2%
4.6%4.5%
5.0% 4.3% 4.4%
5.8% 6.0% 5.5%
5.5%4.8%
4.8%5.3%
4.5% 4.5% 5.0%
6.3% 5.9% 6.2%
5.2%5.1%
5.6%4.7%
4.8% 5.2% 4.9%
5.4% 5.5% 5.0%
4.7%5.2%
4.4%4.3%
4.6% 4.2% 4.5%
13.8% 14.5% 14.8%
14.4%
14.4%14.9%
15.6%16.5%
17.7%18.4%
1.6% 2.0% 2.7%
3.6%
4.6%
5.8%
6.7%
7.5%8.3%
9.4%
20 yrs-
10-20 yrs
9-10 yrs
8-9 yrs
7-8 yrs
6-7 yrs
5-6 yrs
4-5 yrs
3-4 yrs
2-3 yrs
1-2 yrs
-1 yr
(trillion yen)
(at the end of FY)
531.7 541.5 545.9594.0
636.3
669.9
705.0
743.9
774.1
*years to maturity
805.4
Average
YTM* 5Y9M 6Y1M 6Y3M 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 8Y0M 8Y5M
Average YTM*
(excluding saving
bonds)5Y8M 6Y1M 6Y4M 6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M 8Y0M 8Y5M
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
2.4
0.2%
Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
356.8
36.7%
Banks,etc.
239.9
24.7%
Life and Non-life
Insurance
209.5
21.6%
Public Pensions
51.0
5.3%
Pension Funds
33.0
3.4%
Foreigners
55.1
5.7%
Households
13.3
1.4%
Others
10.1
1.0%
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
0.0
0.0%Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
56.7
47.3%
Banks,etc.
4.1
3.4%Life and Non-life Insurance
2.3
1.9%
Public Pensions
0.0
0.0%
Pension Funds
0.0
0.0%
Foreigners
56.8
47.4%
Households
0.0
0.0%
Others
0.0
0.0%
General Government
(ex Public Pensions)
2.4
0.2% Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0
0.0%
BOJ
413.5
37.9%
Banks,etc.
244.0
22.4%
Life and Non-life
Insurance
211.8
19.4%
Public Pensions
51.0
4.7%
Pension Funds
33.0
3.0%
Foreigners
111.9
10.3%
Households
13.3
1.2%
Others
10.1
0.9%
Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date
20-Year Bonds 924.9 March 20
15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds 639.7 March 20
10-Year Bonds 8,539.7 March 20
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 106.9 March 10
5-Year Bonds 7,890.8 March 20
2-Year Bonds 2,699.4 March 15
Treasury Bill 2,000.0 March 21
Total 22,801.4
Source: Ministry of Finance
Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(Dec. 2016)
General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding
Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2005-2015: actual, FY2016: estimates, FY2017: initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2005-2015: actual, FY2016: estimates, FY2017: initial budget Source: Ministry of Finance
Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of January 31, 2017)
(trillion yen)
Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in March, 2017
Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of January, 2017. Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: About Inflation-Indexed Bonds, the amount of redemption at maturity is adopted the inflation-adjusted principal as of January 31, 2017. Note.4: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors". Note.5: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.6: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
(billion yen)
-11-
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan 0
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(billion yen)
(issue number)
Outstanding amount (excl. BOJ holding)
BOJ holdingOld type
(without floor)
29.79
111.41
82.29
63.3368.46
49.71
35.9139.9439.35
42.35
26.55
10.6012.0514.2115.9615.5517.9817.9219.8419.0112.49
3.76 4.69 5.28 6.35 6.68 6.06 8.12 9.36 10.635.57
0.81 1.29 1.31 1.92 1.86 1.93 2.06 2.22 1.76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
(trillion yen)
(FY)
Treasury Bills2-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)5-yr bondsInflation-Indexed bondsJGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)10-yr bonds15-yr-floating-rate bonds20-yr bonds30-yr bonds40-yr bonds
Average remaining years to maturity: 8 years and 7 months
526.9 531.7 541.5 545.9 594.0 636.3 669.9 705.0 743.9 774.1 805.4 845.3 865.2
136.8 135.6 124.6 127.1
142.4 143.1 163.1 163.3
153.6 158.0 150.5 150.2 142.0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Outstanding (right-hand scale) Issuance Amount (left-hand scale)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
(billion yen)
Monthly Quarter (Mean)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450(trillion yen)
Banknotes in Circulation
Coins in Circulation
Current Account Balances
2.3
3.2
4.3 3.8
5.4 4.4
5.5
4.1 4.3
1.8 3.3
0.9
2.1
1.1 1.6
-0.0
1.6 2.1
1.7
-1.0 -0.5
0.9
2.0 1.5
4.4 3.7
4.9
3.4
6.0
4.6
5.8
4.2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
Primary Income Trade BalanceServices Secondary IncomeCurrent Account
4.3
-1.5 -1.8
0.4
4.9 4.32.3
-0.6
4.7
-7.1
-0.9
2.5
5.8
-0.4
0.8
-1.2
2.3 1.81.4
1.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%)
Private Demand Public Demand
Foreign Demand Real GDP
Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
(CY)
0.3%
0.0%-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
(%)
CPI
CPI excluding food (excludingalcohilic beverages) and energy
Change from the previous year
Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
(ratio)
Dec, 20161.43times
Dec, 20163.1%
Aug, 20090.42times
Jul, 20095.5%
Job opening-to-application ratio(right scale)
Unemployment rate(left scale)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep
-16
(Diffusion index)
Large enterprises/Manufacturing
Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Manufacturing
Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing
Real GDP Growth Rate
Employment Conditions
Prices
Changes in Current Account
Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production
Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders)
TANKAN (Business Conditions)
Source: Cabinet Office "Quarterly Estimates of GDP"
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “CPI”
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare “Employment Referrals for General Workers “, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labour Force Survey”
Source: Ministry of Finance “Balance of Payments"
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Indices of Industrial Production”
Source: Cabinet Office, Government Japan "Orders Received for Machinery"
(trillion yen)
6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS
Source: Bank of Japan "Monetary Base"
Source: Bank of Japan "Tankan"
-12-
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-
09Ap
r-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr-
10Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-
14Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
Apr-
16Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
(2010 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)
Production Shipments
Inventory Inventory Ratio
English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm
About JGBs As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm
About the Debt Management Policy As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm
JGB Issuance Plan As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm
Auction Calendar
Auction Calendar Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm
Historical Data of Auction Results Each Auction http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html
Topics
Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html
Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm
Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm
Interest Rate Swap Semiannual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm
Taxation of Government Bonds As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html
For Individual Investors As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm
Data
Central Government Debt Quarterly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm
Interest Rate Daily http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
STRIPS Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm
Dialogue with the market
Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html
Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html
Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html
Publications
Debt Management Report Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm
JGB Newsletter Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm
Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan
Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: www.mof.go.jp
7 INFORMATION
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-13-