january 21, 2015 university of missouri extension
TRANSCRIPT
January 21, 2015
University of Missouri Extension
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
U.S Corn Production, 1994 to 2014
January Corn Production Estimate Minus November Forecast 2005/06 to 2014/15
U.S. Average Corn Yield, 1960 to 2014
January Corn Yield Estimate Minus November Forecast 2005/06 to 2014/15
Jan 15 FSA update 86,504 +219 th 4,093 95.48%
December 1 Corn Stocks, 2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Corn Consumption Minus Trade Guess 2005/06 to 2014/15
Ending Stocks of U.S. Corn
Corn Balance Sheet
2014-152015-16 FAPRI 2015-16
Planted Acreage (mil.) 90.6 87.9 88.6Harvested Acreage 83.1 80.3 80.9Yield (bu/ac.) 171 165 165
Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,250 13,350Beginning stocks 1,232 1,883 1,877Imports 25 25 20
Total 15,472 15,158 15,247
Export (mil. bu.) 1,750 1,775 1,850Feed and residual 5,275 5,146 5,400Ethanol 5,175 5,175 5,175Other Processing 1,395 1,410 1,400 Total 13,595 13,506 13,825 Ending stocks 1,877 1,652 1,422 Average price $3.65 $3.81 $4.10
March 2015 Corn Futures
December 2015 Corn Futures
Ron Plain
January 21, 2015
Cattle Outlook (title)
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cen
ts p
er P
ou
nd
Source: USDA/ERS
10 monthly records in 2014
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
25019
45
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
f
Pounds
Source: USDA/ERS
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n H
ea
d
2014: 33.6 million head, down 1.0% Smallest calf crop since 1948
Source: USDA/NASS
U.S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Percent
Imports Exports
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly
Source: USDA/ERS
CATTLE SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
400
450
500
550
600
650
700Thou. Head
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%
STEER DRESSED WEIGHTFederally Inspected, Weekly
810
830
850
870
890
910
930Pounds
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2014 steer dressed weight up 1.0%
TOTAL COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150Thou. Head
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%
HEIFER SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210Thou. Head
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2014 heifer slaughter is down 7.9%
Female Share of SlaughterU.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Au
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012 2013 2014
Source: USDA/AMS
2014 female sltr was down 10.3%; male sltr down 3.8%
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
2012
2013
2014
Dec 1 cattle on feed: up 1.4%
Cattle on FeedLarge U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
95100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Choice Steer Breakeven PriceS. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Per Cwt
Breakeven Projected Breakeven
Source: LMIC
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds
*forecast
2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,685*
Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,225*
Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 5,955*
Qtr 4 6,423 6,020 5,965*
Year 25,720 24,249 23,830*
----- % Change -----
2013-14 2014-15.
- 4.9% - 5.8%.
- 5.1% - 1.3%.
- 6.4% - 0.9%.
- 4.7% - 1.4%.
- 5.3% - 2.3%
5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012 2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 $125.29 $125.52 $146.34 $162-168*
Qtr 2 $121.91 $124.95 $147.82 $160-172*
Qtr 3 $119.69 $122.30 $158.49 $157-171*
Qtr 4 $125.54 $130.77 $165.62 $158-172*
Year $122.86 $125.89 $154.56 $159-171*
*forecast
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price Monthly Average 2000-2014
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Ja
n 0
0
Ja
n 0
1
Ja
n 0
2
Ja
n 0
3
Ja
n 0
4
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
$ Per Cwt.
Cash Futures
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer PriceMonthly Average 2000-2014
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Ja
n 0
0
Ja
n 0
1
Ja
n 0
2
Ja
n 0
3
Ja
n 0
4
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
$ Per Cwt.
Cash Futures
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNSReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Per Cow
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
U.S. Soybean Production, 1994 to 2014
January Soybean Production Estimate Minus November Forecast: 2005/06 to 2014/15
U.S. Average Soybean Yield, 1960 to 2014
January Soybean Yield Estimate MinusNovember Forecast 2005/06 – 2014/15
Jan 15 FSA update 81,757 +131 th 1,944 97.67%
NASS and FSA Planted Acres of Soybeans, 2007 to 2014
December 1 Soybean Stocks, 2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Soybeans,2005/06 to 2014/15
Ending Stocks of U.S. Soybeans
Soybean Balance Sheet
2014-152015-16 FAPRI 2015-16
Planted Acreage (mil.) 83.7 86.7 88.0Harvested Acreage 83.1 83.6 84.8Yield (bu/ac.) 47.8 44.5 44.0
Production (mil. bu.) 3,969 3,720 3,733Beginning stocks 92 396 410Imports 15 15 15
Total 4,076 4,131 4,158
Export (mil. bu.) 1,770 1,723 1,825Crush 1,780 1,851 1,830Seed & Feed 116 112 120
Total 3,666 3,686 3,775 Ending stocks 410 445 383 Average price $10.20 $8.76 $9.25
2015 March Soybeans
2015 November Soybeans
Ron Plain
January 21, 2015
Hog Outlook (title)
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2014
200
250
300
350
400
450Ja
n 00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Cen
ts P
er P
ound
Source: USDA/ERS
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
802
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Marketing Month
$ Per Live Cwt
Actual Forecast
Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,00019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Head per mo.
Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2014
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
06 J
an Apr Ju
lO
ct07
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct08
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct09
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct10
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct11
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct12
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct13
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct14
Jan Apr Ju
lO
ct
% o
f Pro
duct
ion
Imports Exports
Source: USDA/ERS
New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by WeekNAHLN Reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4-1
5 4
-29
5-1
3 5
-27
6-1
0 6
-23
7-0
7 7
-21
8-0
4 8
-18
9-0
1 9
-15
9-2
9 1
0-13
10-
27 1
1-10
11-
24 1
2-08
12-
22 0
1-05
01-
19 0
2-02
02-
16 0
3-02
03-
16 0
3-30
04-
13 0
4-27
05-
11 0
5-25
06-
08 0
6-22
07-
06 0
7-20
08-
03 0
8-17
08-
31 0
9-14
09-
28 1
0-12
10-
26 1
1-09
11-
23 1
2-07
12-
21
2013-14 Week Ending
New Cases
PDCoV
PEDV
Source: AASV & NAHLN
U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Head
January 2014 PPL lowest since January 2009
Barrow & Gilt Live WeightsIowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
265
270
275
280
285
290
Pounds
2013
2014
2015
record
2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013
HOG SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400Thou. Head
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2014 hog slaughter was down 5.0%; pork production is down 1.9%
December Hog Inventory
All Hogs & Pigs 102.0 Kept for Breeding 103.7 Kept for Marketing 101.8 Under 50 lbs 103.5 50-119 lbs. 103.3 120-179 lbs. 100.5 180 lbs. and over 98.5 Mar-May Farrowings 100.1 Jun-Aug Farrowings 100.6 Sep-Nov Farrowings 103.3 Dec-Feb Farrowing Intentions 103.9 Mar-May Farrowing Intentions 103.2
Source: USDA NASS
Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
DJ
F9
9
DJ
F0
0
DJ
F0
1
DJ
F0
2
DJ
F0
3
DJ
F0
4
DJ
F0
5
DJ
F0
6
DJ
F0
7
DJ
F0
8
DJ
F0
9
DJ
F1
0
DJ
F1
1
DJ
F1
2
DJ
F1
3
DJ
F1
4
DJ
F1
5
% change from yr. ago
Source: USDA/NASS
H-P-0910/06/14
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds
*forecast
2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 5,935*
Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,735*
Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,845*
Qtr 4 6,274 6,140 6,380*
Year 23,187 22,852 23,895*
------Change------
2013-14 2014-15.
+ 0.1% +2.6%
- 0.3% +4.2%
- 3.6% +7.8%
- 2.1% +3.9%
- 1.4% + 4.6%
Iowa-Minn Hog Price ForecastNegotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2012 2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 $84.78 $80.17 $ 95.15 $80-84*
Qtr 2 $85.45 $89.33 $115.67 $88-92*
Qtr 3 $83.15 $95.36 $111.79 $87-91*
Qtr 4 $79.93 $82.36 $ 88.78 $74-78*
Year $83.36 $86.87 $102.85 $82-86*
*forecast price – prior day purchased
Net Slaughter Hog PriceMonthly Average 2002-2014
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Ja
n 0
2
Ja
n 0
3
Ja
n 0
4
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
$ Per Cwt.
Cash Futures
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015Iowa State University Calculations
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$ Per Head
Actual Forecast
Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
USDA Reports on January 12
• Qtrly stocks 1.52 bil bu, 25 mil bu avg trade est.
• Winter acres 40.5 mil ac down 2.0 from last yr and 2.0 million acres below trade estimates.
• Soft red winter – 7.5 mil ac down 1.0 from last yr. and 0.5 mil. ac. below trade estimates.
• Ending stocks up 33 mil bu at 687 mil bu. Feed down 30 mil bu.
• World ending stocks 196.0 mil tons, up 1.1 mt.
• Russia, U.S. winter wheat condition
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Acres Planted (mil.) 55.3 56.2 56.8 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) 46.2 47.1 43.7
Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks 0.743 0.718 0.590 Production 2.252 2.135 2.026 Total Supply 3.118 3.021 2.796 Use: Feed 0.370 0.226 0.150 Food & Seed 1.018 1.029 1.034 Exports 1.012 1.176 0.925 Total Use 2.400 2.4321 2.109 Ending Stocks 0.718 0.590 0.687
Avg. price/bu. $7.77 $6.87 $6.10
Supply & Demand: Wheat
2015 July Wheat
Joe Horner
January 21, 2015
Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell
• Supply Bearish– US cow numbers – rising slowly 0.9% (Dec 2014 year over year)
– US milk per cow – rising 2.4% (Dec 2014 year over year)
– US milk production – rising 3.4%– Concerns about where to go with spring flush milk
• Demand Bearish– Domestic – Product pipeline refilling– Exports – NZ up 3.8% thru Dec, strong $ limits exports– Global – dairy product prices stabilizing
• Outlook Bearish– Margins squeezed till milk supply adjusts– Cull cow prices vs milk prices dictate length of low prices
Stocks – Rising
Bullish Neutral
Neutral Bearish
USDA Margin Protection Program
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp
MPP Signup Missouri USA
Signed up 70% 50%
> $4.00 margin protection 79% 55%
Dairy Price Outlook
1st Quarter
20142nd Quarter
20152015
USDA – All Milk PriceDecember 16, 2014
$20.00-
$20.50
$17.00-
$17.80
$18.45-
$19.25
CME Group Futures Class IIIJanuary 16, 2014
14.82 14.29 15.25
CME Group Futures Class IVJanuary 14, 2014
13.45 13.70 14.70
MO Farm Forecast $16.50 $15.75 $17.00
