january ‘06advice to minister1. january ‘06advice to minister2 understanding climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 1
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 2
• Understanding Climate Change• Climate Change Action Plan
Elements• Climate Change Action Plan
Target
About this Presentation
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 3
Why a Climate Change Action Plan?
• Climate Change is a reality• Global & local issue• Environmental, Social &
Economic • No quick fix• No silver bullet
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 4
• Farmers• Fishers• Foresters• New Brunswickers• Visitors• Commerce
Who is Affected by Climate Change?
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 5
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 6
New Brunswick Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2004)
OthersNitrous oxide
3%Methane
6%
Carbon dioxide 91%
Carbon dioxide91%
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 8
Climate Observations in NB
• Temperature - Up 0.70 C
• Snow pack – Down 25% (N) & 50% (S)
• Sea level rise – Up 30 cm
• Extreme storm events – 5 X as frequent
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 9
• A plan for New Brunswick• What we can do
• Goals• Contribute to the global effort (Kyoto)• Help achieve NEG/ECP targets• New Brunswick’s share • Local response
Why a Climate Change Action Plan?
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 10
• Emission reduction• Adaptation,• Community engagement
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 11
• Built by departments’ & agencies’ contributions
• Stakeholder consultation• Charter for Change & Self Sufficiency
Goal• Many of the actions already endorsed
by other jurisdictions
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 13
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 14
• Total of 22 Mt. in 2004• 13 Mt. From Industry
• NB Power 8.0 Mt.• Refinery 3.3 Mt.• Pulp and Paper 0.6 Mt.• Other 1.1 Mt.
• 6 Mt. From Transportation• 3 Mt. Other Sources
NB Emission Sources
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 16
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 17
• Emission reduction• Adaptation• Community engagement
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 18
Emission reduction• Renewable Energy & Efficiency• Transportation• Waste Management• Industrial Sources• Other
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 20
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
Renewable Energy & Efficiency (2.2)
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 21
Renewable Energy & Efficiency• Efficiency NB programs • 400 Mw of wind energy• Biomass opportunities• Tidal power opportunities• Building & equipment stds.• Off electricity strategies
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 23
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
Transportation (1.2)
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 24
Transportation• Intelligent Transportation System• Provincial Public Transportation
Strategy• Alternative Fuels• Trucking industry partnerships • Fuel efficient vehicles
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 26
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
Waste Management (1.2)
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 27
Waste Management• Methane capture• Composting• Air conditioning replacement gases
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 29
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emmissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
Industrial Sources (0.7)
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 30
Industrial Sources• Best-available technology standards
for new projects• Less carbon-intensive energy options• NB Innovation Foundation – funded
research• GHG offset credits
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 32
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Industrial Sources (0.7)
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
Other* - Government Leading by Example / Partnership & CommunicationsOther* (0.2)
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 33
Other
• Government Leading by Example
• Procurement• Transportation• Buildings• Energy
management• Sharing best
practices
• Partnerships with Communities
• Establish dialogue• Remove barriers to
green municipal actions.
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 35
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Industrial Sources (0.7)
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
Other* (0.2)17.7
Other* - Government Leading by Example / Partnership & Communications
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
’07
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 37
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Other* (0.2)
Industrial Sources (0.7)
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
Other* - Government Leading by Example / Partnership & Communications
’07
Federal Leadership & Support (1.6)
17.7
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 38
Federal Framework• 18% emission intensity reduction in 2010• 2% a year after thatThrough:• Credit for early actions • On site improvements• Technology Fund investment credits• Other credit trading
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 40
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Industrial Sources (0.7)
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
Other* (0.2)
Federal Leadership & Support (1.6)
14.5(NEG/ECP)
Other* - Government Leading by Example / Partnership & Communications
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
’07
17.7
(1990) 16.1
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 41
• Emission reduction• Adaptation• Community engagement
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 42
Adapting to Climate Change
• Already impacting communities & commerce• Seasonal uncertainties• Water concerns• Habitat and ecosystem changes• Health & public safety • Resource industry sectors impacted
• The “do nothing” approach will result in greater cost, vulnerability and risk
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 43
Actions to Adapt
• Provincial risk assessment to identify vulnerabilities and priority actions
• “Climate proof” development decisions
• Strengthen measures to protect coastal areas
• Adaptive management of natural resources
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 44
• Emission reduction• Adaptation• Community engagement
NB’s Climate Change Action Plan
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 45
• Education / Awareness• Shared responsibility addressed by
all levels of government• Support the development of
community-based engagement• Encourage beneficial individual
actions
Community Engagement
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 46
• Coordination through Climate Change Secretariat
• Responsibility rests with individual depts.• Regulatory/Policy changes• Variable implementation timelines• Must begin now in order to realize
reductions in 2012
Implementation
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 47
• Generation of economic opportunities
• Cost to consumers in short term• Cost savings to consumers in near
term• ecoTrust funding/other federal
“Eco” $
Financial Considerations
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 48
Summary
• 7.1 Mt. reduction in 2012• Lays groundwork for 2020• Maintain level playing field for
industry• “Climate proof” development
decisions• Engagement of communities and
New Brunswickers
January ‘06 Advice to Minister 50
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Year
CO
E
quiv
ale
nt
(Megato
nnes)
2Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Scenarios in New Brunswick
1990
16.1
2004
22.0
Actual
2012
23.2
Estimated
25.3
2020
Industrial Sources (0.7)
Waste Management (1.2)
Transportation (1.2)
Renewable Energy& Efficiency (2.2)
Other* (0.2)
Federal Leadership & Support (1.6)
14.5(NEG/ECP)
Other* - Government Leading by Example / Partnership & Communications
References – National Inventory Report: 1990-2004/NB Departments of Energy & Environment
’07
17.7
(1990) 16.1