jan husdal trb 2005

8/14/2019 Jan Husdal TRB 2005

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The vulnerability of road networks

in a cost-benefit perspective

Jan Husdal

Molde University College10 January 2005

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2005Washington, DC, 9-13 January 2005


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Outline Formalities

Biographical note

The Background Early beginnings

Problem statement

Example/illustration

The Research Reliability and vulnerability

Risk and vulnerability Project evaluation and vulnerability

The cost of vulnerability and reliability

Application

Recent research Conclusion

Future research


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Problem statement I - issue Road networks are vulnerableRoad networks are vulnerableto many (external) circumstances Additional costs incur whenAdditional costs incur whenpeople, travellers or goods do not reach

their destination in space or time as intended. Delays Diversions/detours Late delivery, non-delivery, early delivery Just-in-time Perishable goods

This is particularly an issue in sparse, nonsparse, non--congested, rural networkscongested, rural networks, vulnerability is here more an issue than reliability (travel time variability) because the network is so essential for access to community services for the

local population and access to markets for the local businesses.

VulnerabilityVulnerabilityof a transport network The networks susceptibility to failure (disruption, degradation).

ReliabilityReliabilityof a transport network The probability that the network functions, or rather: does not fail to function.

ReliabilityReliability= BenefitBenefit---- VulnerabilityVulnerability= CostCost

What is the (expected) vulnerability costvulnerability costof using a particular route (orlink on a route)?


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Problem statement II - purpose To add reliability and vulnerability to the current project

evaluation procedures

To evaluate the cost of remaining vulnerable or non-reliableagainst the assumed benefit of becoming less vulnerable ormore reliable with the proposed project.

To aggregate a vulnerability index for a road network

These arguments should come in addition to the quantifiablecosts and benefits of a project as prescribed by currentevaluation methods - they may, however, be in opposition tothe decision supported by traditional cost-benefit analysis.


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Example The service area of the hospitals in MoldeandKristiansund, on the north-western coast of Norway, ismarked by a number of potential vulnerabilities: F=Ferry,CW=Causeway, ST= Subsea Tunnel, T=Tunnel,M=Mountain Pass, B=Bridge


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Related research RISIT (2002-2007)

The transport sector ingeneral has very limitedexperience with regard torisk based management

Cost-benefit analyses andenvironmental impactanalyses are being used, butrisk analyses and riskacceptance criteria are not.

Risk and vulnerability as aconcept and as amanagement tool has nomarked tradition among theNorwegian road authorities

or amongst the internationalroad authorities

Aven et al. (2004)

www.program.forskningsradet.no/risit/


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Reliability and Vulnerability

ReliabilityReliabilitydescribes the operabilityof the networkunder varying strenuous conditions

(i.e. the ability to continue to function).

VulnerabilityVulnerabilitydescribes the non-operabilityof the networkunder varying strenuous conditions

(i.e. the susceptibility to fail to function).

A reliablereliablenetwork exhibits a high degree of operability as expressed by serviceability, accessibility, and non-variability

under most circumstances,

due to the presence of redundancy, robustness, and resilience.

A vulnerablevulnerablenetwork exhibits a low degree of operability as expressed by non-serviceability, non-accessibility, and variability

under certain circumstances,

due to the lack of redundancy, robustness, and resilience.

VulnerabilityVulnerability= NonNon--ReliabilityReliability (under said certain circumstances)


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Risk and Vulnerability

R = C x P R = Risk

C = Consequence

P = Probability

R = V(ec) x P(ec) V = Vulnerability to the occurrence of an

external circumstance (ec)

or threat P = Probability of an

external circumstanceoccurring

Risk matrix.

The threshold indicates therisk acceptance level


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Project evaluation and Vulnerability Some of the elements that project evaluation procedures should take explicitly into account

in order to incorporate considerations of vulnerability are the following:

The probability and impact of failureThe probability and impact of failureof a given network, link or route, given external circumstances or strenuous conditions

The probability of the external circumstances occurringThe probability of the external circumstances occurring

The robustness of the systemThe robustness of the system the probability that the system will continue to function even if a threat eventuates at a vulnerable point

The time and cost to repair the systemThe time and cost to repair the system if the threat occurs

and the system fails at its vulnerable point The costs to the general economyThe costs to the general economyof such a failure

goods and passengers not getting to their destinations, or getting there late, transportation carriers being forced to use expensive detours, etc.

The contribution of a given projectThe contribution of a given project to improving the robustness

and hence reliability of the system The degree of risk aversionThe degree of risk aversionthat should be applied

in deciding what weight to place on the risk that has been identified (level of threat x level of vulnerability)


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The cost of vulnerability

The societal costs of vulnerability versus reliability. A - current state, B high investment(new road), C low investment (upgrading existing road), D - optimum

Vulnerability


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Recent research I Bottlenecks in freight transport by road

Developing a multi-criteria approachin assessing non-monetary effectsof nature-related bottlenecks

V = CiIiV = VulnerabilityC = Category weightI = Impact score


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Recent research II Case 1: Oppdal Kristiansund

(lower right to upper left)

Left: Original route

Right: Detour + 2.5 hrs + 135km (75mi)

Estimated cost of disruption:

NOK 900,000/year for heavy vehicles($ 150,000/year)

Non-toll road diverted to toll road + ferry

Case 2: Dombs Molde (lower right to upper left)

Left: Original route

Right: Detour + 1.5 hrs + 80km (50 mi)

Estimated cost of disruption:

NOK 80,000/yearfor heavy vehicles

($13,300/year)

Toll road + ferry diverted to non-toll road


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Recent research III

Rv70 Oppdal-Kristiansund:

0,2x4 + 0,3x5 + 0,1x2 + 0,1x2+ 0,1x2 + 0,1x3 = 3,23,2non-toll > toll

E136/Rv64 Dombs-Molde:

0,2x5 + 0,3x4 + 0,1x2 + 0,1x2+ 0,1x1 + 0,1x2 = 2,92,9toll > non-toll

S = wi ci


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Future research To establish a practice-oriented methodology for aggregating aaggregating a

vulnerability index for a road networkvulnerability index for a road network, and the costsassociated with various vulnerabilities.

To find thevulnerability cost of transportvulnerability cost of transporton a particular route or

link on a route.

To find the vulnerability cost of locationvulnerability cost of locationin relation to theneighbouring transport network.

How do transport-dependent entities adapt toadapt totransporttransport--related uncertaintiesrelated uncertainties?

Suppliers producers customers

JIT, inventory, lead times, scheduling, routing etc.

Stated preference surveys to establish values and weights

Case studies of selected firms to determine the costs of uncertainties

Develop a multimulti--criteria evaluationcriteria evaluationof both monetary non-monetary impacts of vulnerability


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Thank You

Questions?

Source: www.avisa-hordaland.no


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Examples of issues

Critical paths

Availability of alternative routes

Cost of rebuilding

Closures and downtime

Hazardous materials transport

Traffic safety

Operations and maintenance

Emergency preparedness

Presence and probability of hazards

jan husdal trb 2005

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