Jacob Schewe, PIK

ISI-MIP water sector: Data & results

Jacob Schewe, PIK

The multi-model ensemble

Climate data: Global hydrological models (GHMs):

DBHH08* JULES LPJmLMac-PDM.09 MATSIRO MPI-HM PCR-GLOBWBVIC WaterGAP* WBMplus

*human water use/withdrawals available

HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC-ESM-CHEMGFDL-ESM2M NorESM1-M

Output: Daily…•temperature •precipitation•radiation •wind speed •surface pressure

• Interpolated to 0.5° x 0.5°• Bias-corrected monthly

means and daily variability, • using WATCH forcing data, • preserving future relative

(temperature: absolute) trends (Hempel et al., 2013)

Bias correction (for all ISI-MIP simulations):

incl. dynamic vegetation

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Output variables

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Output variables

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Scenarios

Jacob Schewe, PIK

First ResultsPapers using ISI-MIP water sector data:

•Wada Y., Wisser D., Eisner S., Flörke M., Gerten D., Haddeland I., Hanasaki N., Masaki Y., Portmann F.T., Stacke T., Tessler Z., and Schewe J. (2013): Multi-model projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/grl.50686.

•Haddeland I., et al. (2013): Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. PNAS, accepted

•Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. PNAS (early online edition) [DOI:10.1073/pnas.1222471110]

•Schewe, J. et al. (2013): Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change. PNAS, accepted

•Rutger Dankers, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Pete D. Falloon, Balazs M. Fekete, Simon N. Gosling, Jens Heinke k, Hyungjun Kim, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yusuke Satoh, and Tobias Stacke (2013): A first look at changes in flood hazard in the ISI-MIP ensemble, PNAS, accepted

•J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. B. Clark, A. Itoh, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, X. Liu6, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell (2013): Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP, Earth System Dynamics.

•Portmann F. T., Döll P., Eisner S., and Flörke M. (2013): Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections, Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024023 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024023.

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Discharge changes at 2°C*Multi-model mean of relative change in annual mean discharge

*above present

Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Impact on population

RCP8.5one model run, 30-year average

Measure of severe reduction in water availability: Decrease in annual discharge by more than 20% or 1σ

Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Water scarcitychronic water shortageextreme water shortage

Use a ‘constant-climate’ run to separate the climate effect: RCP8.5-constClim

constClim = amplification by climate change

% %

Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Flood Hazard

Dankers et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Drought

Prudhomme et al., under review

% change in drought days

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Human impacts on water cycle

Haddeland et al., 2013

naturalized runoff changewith human impacts(dams, withdrawals)

Jacob Schewe, PIK

Irrigation water demand

Wada et al., 2013