Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns

March 23, 2011

Announcements

No class next week; instead we will meet before the final exam (in May) for a review session.

Final exam scheduled 20 May

How predictable are elections?

Economic conditions

Government popularity

Past performance

Forecasting British Elections

Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198

The Forecast

Actual result: Labour 35%

Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election

Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections”BJPIR 7:165-173.

Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats

US Elections

Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-ChangeModel” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4): 691-695

The 2008 Election

Actual result: Obama 53%

If elections are predictable why is opinion fluid...

British Voting intentions (2005-10)

See www.ukpollingreport.co.uk

Enlightenment Theory

Campaigns “educate” voters

Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...

Example of Activation

For issues to matter in an election

Candidates/parties must differ

Prospective voters must perceive the differences

They must be correct about the difference

On the other hand...

There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate

Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand

Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference

Issue Ownership

Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas

Parties come to “own” these issues

Try to make elections about the issues they “own”

“Old” vs. “New?” issues

Issue Space

Issue Voting in Britain

When are issues likely to be more/less important?

When parties are far apart

If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters

When candidates talk about them

When media focus on them

The Economy

Retrospective or prospective?

Egocentric or sociotropic?

Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility?

Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy?

Does political knowledge affect the relationship?

When is the economy likely to be more/less important?

When parties are far apart

When responsibility is clear

When times are tough

When candidates talk about it

When media focus on it

Valence Issues

Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided.

Valence issues are less demanding

Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity

Assessments about leadership performance

Character

Competence

Integrity

Leadership

Empathy

Brown’s Public Image

 Survey End Date

Belief StrongDecisiv

eCrisis Honest

In touch

Leader

Charisma

YouGov/Sunday Times

15/06/07

49 44 38 16 23 17 13 4

YouGov/Sunday Times

20/07/07

44 35 32 16 25 20 11 4

YouGov/Sunday Times

06/10/07

40 40 37 27 22 20 17 1

YouGov/Sunday Times

16/05/08

30 17 8 10 22 10 3 2

YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know

Character

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of Candidates

British Elections: Valence Politics

Leadership evaluations

Party identification Perceptions of competence

Economy

Summing it Up: What matters?

The economy

The issues

Character