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ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members 26th February 2013 Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya Raw Materials – Present and Future Regional/World Capacities and Trends Avdo Niksic – Nick Managing Director – Asia Pacific & India ChemOrbis [email protected]
About ChemOrbis
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Offices
Global and Refined Community
Breakdown by Geography Breakdown by Type
Americas 20%
Asia 32%
Europe 28%
ISC 8% MEA
11%
ROW 1%
Other 31%
Plastic End Product
Manufacturer 60%
Polymer Producer
1%
Polymer Trader/Dist.
8%
The value proposition of ChemOrbis grows as the size and quality of our community grows.
Coverage
Geographical Product
We cover all key spot markets (reacting faster to market developments) China SEA/India Turkey Egypt Italy
Coverage will soon be expanded to cover Americas, NWE, Russia, GCC and Africa.
We cover commodity polymers i.e. PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET, ABS
As well as their feedstocks and monomers i.e. crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, VCM, styrene.
Also machinery and equipment, molds, professional services like logistics, transportation, customs clearance are supported on our trading platforms.
CO is In-depth & Diversified
5000 Sources 250,000 Prices
56% 7%
37%
Converter
Producer
Trader/Distributor
32%
22%
46%
Converter
Producer
Trader/Distributor
All types (producers, traders, converters) + All sizes = remarkable crosscheck ability
World’s Polymers Barometers (Italy End Oct 2012)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Turkey
Italy
China
Different market dynamics
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-
08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep-
09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-1
0
Sep-
10
Nov
-10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep-
11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Crude Oil (e)' (dollarsper barrel)
Natural GasWellhead' (dollarsper thousand cubicfeet)Coal' (dollars permillion Btu)
US PE and PVC exports 2000-2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
PE PVC
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
USA capacity expansions
January-February Westlake Cracker 565 USA Expansion shutdown 60 d
Capacity of Petro-2 cracker will be expanded by 105,000 tons/year during the maintenance that started on Jan 10. The original shutdown date was Q4, 2012. Expansion to be completed by H2 February.
2015 Westlake Cracker 545 USA Delayed Expansion
Expansion at Lake Charles, LA. Expansion delayed from 2013 to 2015
Mid- 2014 Westlake Ethylene 285 US Expansion
The company will add more than 90,000 tons/year of ethylene production capacity to reach around 300,000 tons/year in line with the conversion of its Calvert City, Kentucky steam cracker to ethane feedstock from propane
End 2012 Dow Cracker 390 USA Restart of idled cracker
Restart of idled cracker at St. Charles, LA
April -June 2012 BASF-Total Cracker 60 USA Expansion 50 d Plant will shut April 18, 2012 for expansion by 60,000 t/y.
Q3 2013 Williams Cracker 272 USA Expansion Debottleneck at Geismar, LA
End 2013 Ineos Cracker 115 USA Expansion Debottleneck at Chocolate Bayou, TX
2014 Westlake Cracker 113 USA Expansion Expansion at Lake Charles, LA
2013-2014 LyondellBasell Cracker 227 USA Expansion Expansion planned at Channelview, TX
2014 LyondellBasell Cracker 386 USA Expansion Expansion at Laporte, TX
Q1 2013 - Q2 2015 Williams Cracker Canada Start up
The company will build olefin processing facilities with 11,000-12,000 b/d ethane, ethylene, propane and propylene capacities by Q2 2015
June 2015 Braskem/ Grupo Idesa Cracker 1 mil Mexico Start up
Contract awarded in Oct 2012 for the Ethylene XXI petchem complex
2016 ExxonMobil Cracker 1.5 mil USA Start up
Ethylene cracker in Baytown is expected to start up in 2016.
2016 Formosa Plastics Cracker 800 USA Start up
New cracker at Point Comfort, TX
2016 OxyChem Ethylene 544 USA Start up
Contract awarded in Oct 2012 for a new ethane cracker
2016-2017 Dow Cracker World scale USA Start up
Company plans expansions and 1 new cracker to increase capacity by 2.3 mil tons/yr by 2017
2016-2017 Shell Chemical Cracker World scale USA Start up
Company is assessing where to locate a new complex using Marcellus Shale
2017 Dow Chemical Cracker World scale USA Start up
World scale ethylene cracker will be built in Texas.
Q1 2017
Chevron Phillips Chemical Cracker
1.5 million USA Start up
New ethane cracker at its Cedar Bayou complex in Texas.
After 2017 Sasol Cracker 1-1.4 mil USA Start up
Ethane cracker planned for Lake Charles, LA. Feasibility study will be completed by 2H 2013
Shale Gas: A growing global energy source
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf)
Proved Natural Gas Reserves
Source: EIA
Forecast
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1
World Liquid Fuels Supply and Demand Balance million barrels per day
Implied stock change and balance (right axis)
World supply (left axis)
World demand (left axis)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013
Location 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Bab el_Mandab 4.6 4.5 2.9 2.7 3.4 Turkish Straits 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 N/A Danish Straits 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 N/A
Strait of Hormuz
16.7 17.5 15.7 15.9 17.0
Panama Canal 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 Crude Oil 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Petroleum Products 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.8
Suez Crude Oil 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 Suez Petroleum Products 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
SUMED Crude Oil 2.4 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.7
Volume of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Transported Through World Chokepoints, 2007-2011
Middle East Pipelines
Cumulative China Imports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Monthly China Imports
China Imports by product
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PVC
PS
PP
PET
PE
ABS
China versus SEA versus India
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China India SEA
Top 10 Exporters to China
YEAR 2009 YEAR 2008 YEAR 2007 YEAR 2006Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT)
South Korea 3,694 1 SAME South Korea 2,941 1 SAME South Korea 2,962 1 SAME South Korea 2,895Taiwan 2,703 2 SAME Taiwan 2,421 2 SAME Taiwan 2,782 2 SAME Taiwan 2,646
United States 1,792 6 UP Japan 927 3 SAME Japan 1,227 3 SAME Japan 1,193Saudi Arabia 1,298 5 UP Singapore 905 4 SAME Singapore 973 4 SAME Singapore 962
Japan 1,284 3 DOWN Saudi Arabia 764 6 UP United States 887 8 UP Saudi Arabia 948Singapore 904 4 DOWN United States 720 5 DOWN Saudi Arabia 803 5 DOWN Thailand 767Thailand 716 7 SAME Thailand 649 7 SAME Thailand 645 6 DOWN Malaysia 590Malaysia 582 8 SAME Malaysia 474 8 SAME Malaysia 469 7 DOWN United States 551
Iran 555 #N/A NEW Hong Kong 273 9 SAME Hong Kong 344 10 UP India 396Brazil 325 #N/A NEW Canada 229 10 SAME Canada 240 #N/A NEW Hong Kong 321
Grand Total 13,853 Grand Total 10,304 Grand Total 11,333 Grand Total 11,269
Top 10 accounts for 81% of all imports Top 10 accounts for 88% of all imports Top 10 accounts for 88% of all imports Top 10 accounts for 88%
Prev. Year Prev. Year Prev. Year
YEAR 2012 YEAR 2011 YEAR 2010Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT) Exporter Qty (KT)
South Korea 2,910 1 SAME South Korea 2,928 1 SAME South Korea 3,239 1 SAME
Saudi Arabia 2,380 3 UP Taiwan 2,235 2 SAME Taiwan 2,622 2 SAME
Taiwan 2,240 2 DOWN Saudi Arabia 2,104 3 SAME Saudi Arabia 1,904 4 UP
Thailand 1,207 4 SAME Thailand 1,097 8 UP United States 1,239 3 DOWN
Iran 1,152 9 UP United States 1,040 4 DOWN Japan 1,157 5 SAME
United Arab Emirates 971 8 UP Japan 901 5 DOWN Singapore 945 6 SAME
Singapore 956 7 SAME Singapore 877 6 DOWN Iran 870 9 UP
United States 896 5 DOWN United Arab Emirates 815 10 UP Thailand 843 7 DOWN
Japan 706 6 DOWN Iran 800 7 DOWN Malaysia 495 8 DOWN
India 407 #N/A NEW Qatar 423 #N/A NEW United Arab Emirates 274 #N/A NEW
Grand Total 13,826 Grand Total 13,220 Grand Total 13,589
Top 10 accounts for 85% of all imports Top 10 accounts for 84% of all imports Top 10 accounts for 84% of all imports
Prev. Year Prev. Year Prev. Year
SEA Exports to China
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Crude oil – monomers - polymers
China SEA Imports HDPE Film
SEA local HDPE Film
HDPE – LLDPE - LDPE
HDPE – LLDPE - LDPE
Ethylene - HDPE
China SEA Local PPH
…Q & A
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