issues and challenges facing the plastics industry, an ... 2014 mpma... · issues and challenges...
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ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members2nd April 2014Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya
Raw Materials – Present and Future Regional/World Capacities and Trends
Avdo Niksic – NickManaging Director – Asia Pacific & [email protected]
GLOBAL (FREE TRADE?) MARKETSUPPLY (CENTERS)DEMAND (CENTERS)
FEEDSTOCK!
Agenda
Free Trade Agreements
AFTA & AEC & etc
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HDPE World
Nameplate Capacity Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HDPE World Nameplate Capacity
Others North America China
Western Europe Southeast Asia India
South America Japan
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HDPE World Demand
China Others North America
Western Europe Southeast Asia India
South America Japan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LDPE World
Nameplate Capacity Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LDPE World Nameplate Capacity
Others Western Europe North America
China Southeast Asia Japan
South America India
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LDPE World Demand
China Others Western Europe
North America South America Southeast Asia
India Japan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LLDPE World
Nameplate Capacity Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LLDPE World Nameplate Capacity
Others North America China
Southeast Asia Western Europe India
South America Japan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LLDPE World Demand
China North America Others
Western Europe Southeast Asia India
South America Japan
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Polypropylene World
Nameplate Capacity Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Polypropylene World Nameplate Capacity
China Western Europe North America
Southeast Asia India South America
Japan Others
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Polypropylene World Demand
China North America Western Europe
Southeast Asia India South America
Japan Others
Ineos chairman warns that Europe's
chemical industry could disappear within a decade
Energy, in the form of gas, in Europe is three times higher than in the Unites States today, whilst electricity is 50% higher. There are no cheap feedstocks in Europe. USA and Middle East feedstocks costs are in another league. Shale gas in the United States has transformed both its competitiveness and its confidence. There are $71 billion worth of announced petrochemical expansions on the back of shale gas flowing into chemicals. This is predicted to grow to over $100 billion. In contrast Europe announces closure after closure.
In the Middle East, they continue to build in Abu Dhabi, in Qatar, in Saudi and now we can add Iran with another 6 million tons of ethylene capacity rejoining planet earth.
“In the UK we have seen 22 chemical plant closures since 2009 and no new builds. And then we have China. ... The Chinese are building relentlessly. Whilst in recent history, they have soaked up all the world’s surplus chemicals, they will soon be self-sufficient. And beyond that they will start to reverse the flow. Remember they are set to become the world’s largest economy by 2020.
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80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00Ja
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8
Ap
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8
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-08
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-09
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Oct
-15
Crude Oil (e)' (dollars per barrel)
Natural Gas Wellhead' (dollars per thousandcubic feet)
Coal' (dollars per million Btu)
Different market dynamics
World’s Polymers Meters
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Turkey
Italy
China
World’s Polymers Meters
Cumulative China Imports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Monthly China Imports
China Imports by product
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PVC
PS
PP
PET
PE
ABS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E
China PVC growthCapacity Apparent Demand Production Imports Exports
Regional Polymers Meters
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
16,000,000,000
18,000,000,000
Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Grand Total
Imports & Exports excluding China
Imports Exports
CHINA IMPORTS PREMIUM OVER SEA
CHINA LOCAL PREMIUM OVER INDONESIA
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E
China “growth model” export for profit sell volumes domestically
Capacity Apparent Demand Production Imports Exports
-2,000,000,000
-1,000,000,000
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand
Net Importers & Net Exporters
2000 2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand
Regional Polymer Imports
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Vietnam growing regional imports
Australia India Indonesia
Japan Malaysia Philippines
Singapore South Korea Taiwan
Thailand
LDPE changing fortune
LDPE changing fortune
China Import Homo & Copo
China Domestic Homo & Copo
In China PP we stick together!
CHINA PP WINS, MALAYSIA IN SECOND PLACE!
ChemOrbis – Global business network for plastics
…Q & A
CHEMORBIS CHINA
No. 338, West Nanjing Road,Tian An Center, 7F, Unit 706Shanghai, P.R. China, 200003
Phone: +86 (21) 6327 1212Fax: +86 (21) 5375 1291Email: [email protected]
CHEMORBIS MALAYSIA
Suite B-11-01, Plaza Mont Kiara No 2, Jalan Kiara, Mont Kiara Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 50480
Phone: +60 (3) 6203 9717Fax:+60 (3) 6203 9769Email:[email protected]
CHEMORBIS TURKEY
Ataturk Caddesi, Seref Yazgan Is Merkezi, No:72, K: 6 Kozyatagi Istanbul, Turkey 34736
Phone: +90 (216) 468 10 25 (pbx) Fax: +90 (216) 360 57 88Email:[email protected]
CHEMORBIS ITALYVia La Spezia 120142 Milano - Italy
Phone: +39 (02) 8941 5593Fax:+39 (02) 8941 5587Email:[email protected]
CHEMORBIS EGYPT21 Ebbad El Rahman St. Sheraton Area,Cairo, Egypt
Phone:+20 (2) 226 81 485Fax:+20 (2) 226 81 485Email:[email protected]
CHEMORBIS USA856 Sunflower CircleWeston Florida 33327United States
Phone: +1 (754) 581 8622Fax: +1 (754) 581 8622Email:[email protected]
CHEMORBIS RUSSIA9 Universitetsky prospekt Moscow, 119296, Russia
Phone: 8(495) 938 00Email:[email protected]
THANK YOU...