is transport a delight

Applied Energy 43 (1992) 67-80

Is Transport a Delight

H u g h Bar ton

Department of Town Planning, Bristol Polytechnic, St. Matthias, Oldbury Court Road, Fishponds, Bristol, BS16 2JP

1 PROPHETIC VISIONS

In 1900, in Mr H. G. Well's prophetic book Anticipations, is a passage that vividly portrays the mobile society of today. He was writing when forms of transport we now take for granted were in their infancy, and he foresaw the transition from the tight-knit cities of the 19th century to the urban regions of today--giving utopian images to a generation . . . .

Practically, by a process of confluence, the whole of Great Britain south of the Highlands seems destined to become an urban region. It will certainly be a curious and varied region, far less monotonous than our present English world. . , perhaps rather more abundantly wooded, breaking continuously into park and garden and with everywhere a scattering of houses . . . . As one travels through the urban region one will traverse open, breezy, 'horsey' suburbs, smart white gates, good turf, a grand-stand shining pleasantly; gardening districts; . . .p leasant houses among heathery moorlands and golf-links . . . . Then presently a gathering of houses closer together, and a promenade . . , then perhaps, an island of agriculture . . . . Through this varied country the new wide roads will run, here cutting through a crest and there running like some colossal aqueduct across a valley, swarming always with a multi tudinous traffic of bright swift (and not necessarily ugly) mechanisms; and everywhere amidst the fields and trees linking wires will stretch from pole to pole . . . . The city will diffuse itself until it has taken up considerable areas and many characteristics, the greenness, the fresh air, of what is now country, and (equivalently) the country will take to itself many of the qualities of the city . . . .

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68 Hugh Barton

Well, we have almost caught up with Mr Wells. He expresses the delight in motorised mobility that, by our daily choices, allows our urban regions to function. But is this bright image a dream, when confronted by the realities of congestion and pollution. Now we still, and more each year, indulge our mania for mobi l i ty- -but with an obscure sense of guilt. Can we still take delight in transport? Or is the party over?

2 C U R R E N T T R E N D S

The impression is sometimes given by Government that energy efficiency has become second nature to us now. Indeed this was the stated justification for cutting-back funding for the Energy Efficiency Office. But in the sphere of transport, historically low energy costs are fuelling profligate use. Year by year each car trip is on average getting longer, the number of trips per car is rising, and the number of households owning cars is going up. 1 in 5 households now have two cars. By comparison with our major competitors, some with much higher car ownership, we are significantly more dependent on car use. The result is that car use is up 45% in the decade 1977-87, and is the dominant factor increasing overall t ransport energy use by 33%. As a percentage of total trips, car reliance is greater here than in neighbouring European countries, and a similar pattern of road dependence can be observed in relation in freight movement. Both France and Germany rely on rail 2½ times the proport ion we do in Britain. We appear to be wedded to our motor vehicles.

The trend is not spread evenly across the country. Locally it may be much more exaggerated; as for example while in 1988 the UK saw a 4% rise in car use, South Glamorgan 's increase ranged from 5 % in Cardiff Centre to 13 % on the periphery.

3 G O V E R N M E N T POLICY

These trends are not purely a market response. They are also a reflection of Government 's choices. In Wales, for example, the amount of public sector capital being devoted to public transport as opposed to road building is just 0"5% this financial year, according to the Welsh Office. Road schemes are often justified by politicians on environmental grounds, but still the key factor in the formal evaluation process is traffic benefit--faster journey times. Road traffic is forecast to rise by up to 142% by AD2025, and the road programme expanded in an at tempt to cope. Road transport demand is treated as an exogenous variable, at the mercy of forces outside the direct

Is transport a delight 69

influence of the state, and separate from questions of bus, bike, train or boat. Transport demand is assumed not to be influenced by transport supply.

Nevertheless, the logic of the Government 's position is actually powerful. Economic growth is their goal, and economic growth follows transport investment. Freight movement (excluding coal and petroleum) is, at 94%, predominantly by road. So it is argued the investment needs to be in the form of roads. Furthermore, when growth occurs then people buy and use cars more, so the roads become both the engine, and the symbol, of success.

4 ROADS AND URBAN R E G E N E R A T I O N

This argument holds good especially in relation to urban regeneration: new roads, improving access to decaying and derelict areas, are seen as the key to renewal in for example, Cardiff Bay, Bristol UDC, and Birmingham Heartlands. Development potential, and developer awareness of it, are to be triggered by road investment, and the forgotten urban backwaters thereby transformed. The new roads may be necessary, but currently we do not evaluate them against possible alternative strategies.

5 THE E N V I R O N M E N T A L COST

All this may be delightful to the motoring lobby, and further reinforce our infatuation with the car, but at a cost. According to our current understanding transport accounts for about 17% of the CO2 which is causing global warming, and COz accounts for half of the total effect (see Fig. 1). Transport energy use also adds to the nitrous oxides and the low- level ozone which are other Greenhouse gases. Furthermore it is heavily implicated in the acid-rain problem. In this broad global context plans for further rapid traffic-growth take on a somewhat apocalyptic look. They also contradict government energy department statements about reducing CO 2 emissions by 20%. And they may soon fall foul of international pressure on emission control.

So we find ourselves in a dilemma. It would appear we have either to sacrifice our delight in mobility, or exacerbate climatic change. Changed political priorities are clearly necessary, but there is a humbug factor here. Consumers are calling for a 'greener' environment as they drive 30 miles to work along modern roads. I count myself guilty in this. So any move to push roads off their policy pedestal will need to challenge not only the established procedures and vested interests involved but also entrenched behavioural patterns and the symbolic glow of success that surrounds both the

70 Hugh Barton

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Fig. 1. Greenhouse gases. Relative contribution to the Greenhouse Effect.

conspicuous production of new roads and vehicles. It is difficult to under-estimate the required shift in values.

the consumption of motor problems of achieving the

6 INDIVIDUAL MOBILITY AND ENERGY-EFFICIENCY

There are perhaps ways of side-stepping the dilemma. We might make petrol engines more environment-friendly. We might change to a cleaner fuel. We might manage traffic more efficiently. All these are necessary reactions to the situation, but are they sufficient?

Fuel efficiency of petrol and diesel engines can be increased further, but the improvement so far has not had a major impact on overall trends. Nor do catalytic convertors hold the key. They may scrub out acid-rain pollutants, but do not touch the carbon dioxide which is implicated in global warming. Southern California, faced with endemic smog problems, is on course to ban vehicles with internal combustion engines totally by the year 2007. The state is looking to alternative fuels, and in particular electricity. Companies are being invited to build electric vehicles to increasingly tight specifications. At present, however, electric cars only reduce pollution at the point of use, while worsening emissions at the point of generation, currently in this country mainly reliant on coal burning at 35% efficiency. If, in the rather distant future, our electricity is generated from renewable sources, then electric cars could become attractive.


The other possible escape route for our mobility fetish is better traffic management, reducing the level of energy-wasteful congestion. The Department of Transport is wedded to this strategy but there are problems with it. Though individual schemes can show very substantial fuel savings, over a whole city the problem is less tractable. Presuming we could achieve off-peak traffic conditions throughout the day, the savings would be only 3 -4%- -and these calculations assume constant demand. Since the publications of Traffic in Towns in 1963, however, it has been recognised that improved roads in urban regions generate new traffic. The M25 is only the most obvious example of this. If the latent demand for car use is permitted to express itself, then the benefits of improved flow are rapidly wiped out. The only situation in which a free-flow strategy would work is if traffic-restraint measures, such as road pricing, tolls or parking control, are applied over the whole of a city, thus matching demand with available supply of road space so that the pollution associated with congestion can be reduced. Such draconian measures, to say the least, are unpopular. They tend to be regressive in their impact and are difficult to implement.

In brief, then, a strategy which attempts to solve congestion and pollution problems by improving traffic-flows carries within it the seeds of its own destruction.

7 ENVIRONMENTAL CAPACITY

So for a number of reasons--to do with aesthetics, health and liveability as well as global concerns--the priority in urban transport planning could shift from vainly trying to maximise private car mobility, towards improving the urban environment and ensuring accessibility for all sectors of the population. Accessibility not Mobility. The concept of 'environmental capacity' could be broadened to embrace not only local safety, noise and intrusion factors but also pollutant emission levels. The monitoring and limiting of traffic emissions could provide the stimulus to policy change.

The objectives of an ecologically-sound transport strategy could be summarised like this:

1. Improve the operating efficiency of vehicles

2. Increase occupancy levels in vehicles (especially private cars)

3. Constrain the use of private vehicles

Free-flow measures can be counter-productive Car-sharing potential

Typically by either limited road-space or by parking controls

72 Hugh Barton

4. Transfer trips from cars to public transport

5. Increase reliance on walking and cycling

6. Rationalise freight movement

Depends on land-use planning as well as transport policy Depends on land-use planning and environmental quality Freight consolidation can be an economic proposition

This list raises fundamental questions about what is effective and what is practicable. In this context, a key issue is the degree to which there may be a trade-off between energy-efficiency and economic regeneration.

8 T R A F F I C C A L M I N G

Traffic calming is the new catch phrase that epitomises the environmental approach. But is it merely new clothes for old policies?

It can involve simple ruses to slow traffic down, like road humps and bends, but it is now being taken as an integrated strategy for satisfying the demand for movement while enhancing environmental quality. While traditionally traffic restraint has been justified by the need to limit congestion, here it is seen as the appropriate outcome of giving priority to the pedestrian environment, to cyclists and to public transport. The cars are not overtly penalised, but just lose out in the competition for scarce road space.

A recent study of German cities where very extensive pedestrianisation and traffic restraint measures have been introduced come to the following conclusions about accessibility and economic development:

1. Retailers have greatly profited from pedestrianisation. 2. The level of parking restraint does not correlate either positively or

negatively with shopping turnover. 3. Against the general trend there has been a move from car use towards

public transport and the bicycle.

Freiburg, a Rhineland town (175000 pop.) west of the Black Forest, exemplifies the German approach. Following a 1973 policy decision an area equivalent to 4.6km / was progressively pedestrianised. Traffic calming measures have been introduced into new developments as well as older inner zones. There is a bicycle network of 373 km. Given the very high car- ownership, the shopping modal split is surprising (Table 1).

The result of rampant bike growth is apparently a sad dearth of bike- parking spaces. An 'environmental travel card' was introduced for public transport in 1984, aimed at making car users aware of their impact on acid

Is transport a delight

TABLE I Shopping Modal Split for Freiburg

Residents (1984)

Mode %

Walk 29 Bicycle 29 Motorcycle 3 Car 14 Train/rail 14 Bus 12

Source: Quality Streets, TEST, 1987.

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rain in the Black Forest. Public-transport use rose by over 50% between 1983 and 1986, with former car users accounting for a significant part. Like any city, of course, Freiburg is atypical. But it does illustrate the scale of change possible with whole-hearted political commitment.

9 LIGHT RAIL SYSTEMS

Like traffic calming, Light Rail systems are the flavour of the month. British cities (belatedly in the European context) now flaunt their LRT proposals as a symbol of green virility. Super tram systems have been hailed as the antidote to congestion and to inner city decline and to urban pollution. Recent research in America and Europe allows us to evaluate these claims.

Other things being equal, cities with LRT or good tram systems have a higher proportion of trips by public transport than those without. However, this does not mean empty roads. After initial relief during the introduction of the system, traffic returns to previous levels. So LRT is not a panacea for congestion. However, it can provide significant improvements in levels of accessibility, particularly for city centres and within walking distance of stations, with consequent land-value changes and increased commercial- opportunities. In Britain this is borne out by the experience of the Tyne and Wear Metro. 'Some LRT initiatives, is the private and public sector, are actually premised on the capture of some of the enhanced development value.

Train and LRT networks are particularly effective where complemented by extensive pedestrianisation and traffic restraint. They have capacity, speed and image advantages over the conventional buses, while being cheaper and much more flexible in routing than 'heavy' rail systems.

74 Hugh Barton

10 CONSISTENT STRATEGIES

No doubt it is reasonably self-evident that if policy-makers are to achieve a holding down or reversal of transport energy growth, then one facet of policy needs to reinforce another. This is notoriously difficult in this country where responsibility for transport and land development is split between a range of public and private agencies, each with their peculiar mandates. Gaining compatibility, or consistency, is a major task even when one authority holds sway. The interactions in the system can create counter- intuitive responses. For example the promotion of car-sharing appears de facto energy-efficient, but may be counterproductive if the new car passengers previously used the bus. Or again, park-and-ride appears an obvious means of increasing suburban rail ridership, but also has the observed effect of spreading the net of the city, the commuting hinterland, yet further into the surrounding regions. It is preferable--though often not

Fig. 2.

Main linked bundle t h a t impacts on urban fo rm

Nature of links: M = Market or model choice impact D = Design o r physical space impact

To c- io'n-ai'" ' )

Use of strategic choice approach to explore low energy transport strategies in Bristol.


possible--to attract people direct onto bus or rail systems, without the intervening car, but that in turn depends on land-use policies, over time, that encourage higher densities and clustered or linear development.

The complexity of such interactions, together with the problems of effectively co-ordinating diverse agencies, points to the need for methods of policy analysis that are highly adaptable, easily grasped, and recognise the uncertainties of the real situation. Complex mathematical models cannot provide this. A possible suite of techniques is provided by the 'Strategic Choice' approach--including decision graphs, compatibility matrices, strategy trees and the 'management of uncertainty'. By way of example here are three illustrations of the use of such techniques in exploring low energy transport strategies in Bristol (see Figs 2, 3 and 4). The final diagram (Fig. 4)

TRAFFIC PLANNING

Free f low pr ior i ty

Physical constraint of traffic

Satisfy central area demand

LEVELS OF COMPATIBILITY ## = Positive reinforcement V = Compat ible

47 = Probably compatible ? = Uncertain

X? = Probably incompatible ~. X = Incompatible

PARKING Constrain central POLICY area supply

Park & ride provision with central restraint

No general pr ior i ty

BUS Bus p r i o r i t y - POLICY core network

Bus p r i o r i t y - maximum penetration

CAR -SHARE POLICY

None

Promote car-shar ing

CYCLING & PEDESTRIAN POLICY

Fig. 3.

No g e n e r a l V , , L , ' ~ / " , ~ J RELEVANT FACTORS prior i ty / ' ~ M = Market impact

D = Design impact Promote walking R = Uncertainty in

related area < J = Lacks energy

Promote cycling just i f icat ion- and walking but involves loss

of accessibility

Use of compatability matrices, strategy trees technique to explore low energy

transport strategies in Bristol.

76 Hugh Barton

T r a f f i c policy

Parking Central policy restraint

I

Bus Priority- policy maximum

network !

I Car-share ")E'[ Do I

Non- motorized

policy

Fig. 4.

Physical restraint

I Priority core network

I

I Promote

I g~

Pr'omote Promote wa king walking &

cycling

I Satisfy demand

I Priority core network

I %%rig

I Promote

walking & cycling

Free- r low 1

Cen!ral restraint

I

1 Promote J

I I I

Promote I just walking

Use of management of uncertainty technique in exploring low energy transport strategies in Bristol.

is based on the preceding compatability matrix, and shows the structure of policy choices that could constitute effective strategies. The strategy which emerged best from the analysis is highlighted.

11 LAND-USE CHANGES

Transport is of course a function of land-use patterns, and vice versa. It is something of a truism that current market trends, often aided and abetted by planning policy, are working to increase dependence on the car rather than reduce it. Simply listing criteria of energy-efficiency and testing existing policy documents against them can be quite illuminating. One document I studied, for a major urban expansion scheme not too far from Bristol, failed on 12 counts out of 18.

12 THE T A F F VALLEY

The study of the Taft Valley for the Welsh Development Agency points up some of the innate conflicts that may occur between established policy and the desire for energy-efficient transport.

At the lower end of the Taft, Cardiffis experiencing, as we have seen, rapid growth of car use. The city has a growing concentration of offices in the

& transport a delight 77

centre and ambitious plans for the regeneration of Cardiff Bay, dependent mainly on a major programme of road investments to provide the trigger to the private sector. Economic buoyancy is reflected in high demand for housing, some of which is being met within the built-up area, by reuse of sites and infill. This intensification of development in Cardiff, raising gross dwelling densities to compensate for smaller average household size, is sensible from the energy viewpoint. At the same time however, the restraint of housing development in the surrounding countryside--notably in the Vale--is obliging increased commuting, predominantly by car, from widely dispersed locations. The general pattern of jobs, homes, social and leisure facilities appears progressively less friendly to energy-efficient modes. In theory there is a clear choice:

E i t h e r some of Cardiff's commercial growth should be diverted to the commuting zones or more residential developments of suitable character should be permitted in close-in locations.

The first is problematical from a marketing perspective. The latter is problematical from a political perspective. The poignancy of the situation is increased still further when one realises that, from urban form theory, Cardiff is at or over the threshold at which the economies of scale lead to increased efficiency. Further peripheral growth around the city would just impair the robustness of the city in a hypothetical future situation of punitive pollution taxation. The theory would suggest evolution towards a cluster of semi-autonomous linked towns. Perhaps not a very practical proposition.

The situation further up the Taft is in some way the obverse of that in Cardiff. The over-riding priority is to regenerate the hearts of the Valleys. Plans are geared to retaining the valley population, making good use of existing social capital, while attempting to attract new employment where the physical constraints allow. But the strategy has not been entirely successful. The new roads have permitted increased out-commuting, rather than drawing commerce in. Some valleys now export the m a j o r i t y of their employed residents during the day, and travel has changed from being the historical linear pattern, mainly short distances up and down the valley, to a car reliant web with its heart in Cardiff. So overall, current trends and policies in this area are contributing their fair share to global warming. Redirecting those trends is quite a challenge.

13 CONCLUSION

Up to now the concept of energy-efficiency has been widely applied to buildings and to industry, but the growing energy use in transport has been

78 Hugh Barton

largely ignored. If we a r e to incorporate this sector into our thinking, then this implies a review of urban and regional planning strategies as well as transport policy p e r se.

In evaluating possible strategies for reducing transport energy use we need:

1. Integrated land-use and transport strategies where policies are mutually reinforcing.

2. Robust strategies that cut fuel use whether the price of fuel is high or, as now, low.

3. Land-use patterns that are efficient both for private car use and, more crucially, for public transport and non-motorised modes.

4. Development policies that encourage the clustering of jobs and facilities so permitting multi-purpose trips and public-transport service nodes.

5. Development policies that achieve somewhat higher densities and the localisation of facilities, thus fostering walking, cycling and bus use.

6. Traffic calming, pedestrian and cycle networks that enhance the quality of the urban environment.

7. Criteria for road planning and traffic management policies that prioritise public transport, vulnerable road users and environment.

8. Strategies for implementation that co-opt commercial interests, civic interests and green interests in a joint campaign to create sustainable and convivial settlements.

There are already signs of recognition in some sections of Government that the delights of unrestrained mobility need to be curtailed. Real changes can occur when altered public consciousness and altered government priorities work together for a sustainable future.

14 EPILOGUE

One place where integrated land use, transport and energy planning has been successfully pursued is a small city called Davis in California. Known as the cycling capital of the world, it has policies for solar energy, recycling, local food production, landscaping and pollution control. I visisted Davis last Summer, and it provides, if you like, the antidote to H. G. Wells motorised utopia. In Davis, transport is a delight. It was a delight to be able to cycle in safety anywhere in the city. It was a delight to walk through shady parks and tree-lined avenues. It was a delight to be able to shift mode with ease--car to train to bus to bike--because of the common interchange point in the city centre. It was particularly delightful to feel, in America, at no disadvantage for lack of a car.


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80 Hugh Barton

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