is there such a thing as migration of poverty in albania?
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Is there such a thing as Migration of Poverty in Albania?. Jessica Hagen-Zanker Carlo Azzarri. ABCDE Conference Tirana, June 10-11, 2008. Introduction. Migration most important social, political & economic phenomenon in Albania since 1990 Internal migration also important, but understudied - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Is there such a thing as Migration Is there such a thing as Migration of Poverty in Albania?of Poverty in Albania?
Jessica Hagen-ZankerCarlo Azzarri
ABCDE ConferenceTirana, June 10-11, 2008
Introduction
• Migration most important social, political & economic phenomenon in Albania since 1990
• Internal migration also important, but understudied• Internal migration mainly rural to urban/peri-urban
areas• In ‘90s urban population increased by 14%, but not
much known on living conditions of migrants What is the impact of internal migration on migrant
households?• Since 1990 poverty decreases, especially in rural Has poverty relocated from rural to urban areas?
Novelty of the paper
• Focus on impact of internal migration
• Albania as quasi-experimental case: no internal or international migration before 1990
• Unique dataset- Households over-sampled in peri-urban areas- Retrospective information on migration- Information on households in 1990 (controls)
Data
• Data- LSMS 2005 (nationally representative)- 3840 households- 200 peri-urban households oversampled • Groups- RNM = Rural household, head did not migrate
internally- PNM = Peri-urban household, head did not migrate
internally- PM = Peri-urban household, head did migrate
internally
Descriptive statistics I
• Migrants to peri-urban younger & less educated• Migrants to peri-urban more likely to be unemployed
& working fewer hours Employed in casual construction sector
• Rural households with more international migrants than peri-urban specialization?
Descriptive statistics II: Income and consumption
RNM = Rural household, head did not migrate internallyPNM = Peri-urban household, head did not migrate internallyPM = Peri-urban household, head did migrate internally
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RNM PNM PM
Per capita income Per capita consumption
Descriptive statistics III
• Peri-urban migrants show worse housing condition, both compared to rural non-migrant households & own situation in 1990 (in terms of house type, number of rooms, water access & quality)
• Peri-urban migrant children least likely to be sent to primary school (70%) & as unlikely to secondary school as rural households (33%)
- Schools far- Teenagers work as much as in rural areas- Households do not consider education as important
as peri-urban non-migrants do
Descriptive statistics IV
• Comparison over time (whether moved 90-94, 95-99, 00-04)
• Internal migrants move for different reasons1) Pioneers: to improve life more likely to send
children to school2) Crisis movers: out of need (pyramid savings scheme
crisis) poor housing & employment3) Followers: to make money highest income gains
• Different expectations different impacts
Econometric analysis• Aim: measuring impact of internal migration on outcome of
interest (e.g. income)
Two Solutions:• Propensity Score Matching
Compare peri-urban internal migrant households to very similar non-migrant rural household
• Instrumental Variable Analysis
Replace explanatory variable with another variable (IV) correlated with explanatory variable only
XmigrationY **
Propensity Score Matching Results
Dependent variable
Income/ capita Consumption/ capita
ATT 2257.37*** 658.34
s.e. 575.19 500.73
ATU 2525.05 334.48
ATE 2498.28 366.76
Confirms descriptive statistics
ATT=Average treatment effect for treated; ATU=Average treatment effect for un-treatedATE=Average treatment effect for population
Instrumental Variables
• Instrumental variables used:
1) Wealth in 1990 influences decision to move, but unlikely to affect current income due to the rapid changes that took place in Albania
2) Housing variables 1990 impacts decision to move, but not current income
Instrumental Variables Results
Treat_year= number of years since the household has moved, 0 for rural non-moversOther explanatory variables omitted for space reason
Dependent variable: Log income per capita
Instruments Coefficient & p-value of treat_year
No of obs. Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value
Hansen J statistic p-value
Kleibergen-Paap F-statistic
Wealth 1990House type 1990
0.24(0.033)
1623 0.039 0.71 5.51
Wealth 1990Water source 1990
0.25(0.049)
1623 0.043 0.82 4.20
Wealth 1990Toilet type 1990
0.35(0.014)
1623 0.000 0.48 3.37
Wealth 1990Rooms/ capita 1990
0.18(0.065)
1623 0.070 0.37 4.30
• All the tests successful, although instruments could be stronger
Conclusions
• Migrants are better off in terms of income• In peri-urban monetary poverty amongst
migrants still high compared to non-migrants migration of poverty?
• Migrants are worse off in terms of housing, education, health, access to utilities, access to stable employmentLiving expenses increase > income gain
Faleminderit!