iraq war ppt
TRANSCRIPT
The Bush Argument
1. Iraq has WMD: October 2002 NIE2. Unfinished Business: 1998 Iraq Liberation Act3. Spreading Democracy4. Iraq and al-Qaeda?
1. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370)
2. Levin Report, October 20043. Pentagon Report, August 2007
2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case
• VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)• Congressional Authorization for Use of
Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02
• National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment
• Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)
But… Mission ComplicatedInsurgency• Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military• Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004• Kurdish Independence?• Shiite militias (Iran?)
– Moqtada al-Sadr
Democracy or Civil War
• Internal Issues– Will this be like
Japan and Germany after WWII
– Or Bosnia
Al-Qaeda after Invasion• AQ in Iraq• Abu Musab al-Zarqawi• (killed June 2006)
• AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)
Political Developments?Honest Attempts to Build Government• Ethnic parties• Religious parties• Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab• Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite• Sunni vs. Sunni• OIL
Positive Political Developments• 7/03 Interim Governing Council• 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured• 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes
over• 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly• 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution• 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum• 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution
– Council of Representatives• 4/06 New government chosen by Council of
Representatives
Public Opinion of US Around the World
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252
US public opinion turns against the war
Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007
Questions
• How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD?
• How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath?
• We’re there: what do we do?– The Bush surge– Iraq Study Group– Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans
Good News?
• Awakening Councils (summer 2006)
• US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5)
• “The Surge” (2007)
General David Petraeus