Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Michael EllemanSenior Fellow for Missile Defence

International Institute for Strategic Studies

22 November 2010

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Iran is successfully developing ballistic missiles with the aim of giving the Islamic Republic the capability to deliver warheads well beyond its borders;

But the worst-case scenario ten years ago about Iran being able to develop an ICBM capable of striking the US within five years has not materialised.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Missile Translation Fuel type Estimated range PayloadNote

Zelzal-1 Earthquake-1 Solid 125km 600 kg Unguided

Zelzal-2 Earthquake-2 Solid 200km 600 kgUnguided

Fateh-110 Victorious Solid 200-250km 500kgM-600??

Sajjil-2 Baked Clay-2 Solid 2200–2400km 750kg Testing

Shahab-1 Meteor-1 Liquid 300km 1000kg Scud-B

Shahab-2 Meteor-2 Liquid 500km 730kg Scud-C

Qiam-1 Rising Liquid 500km 700kg Testing

Shahab-3 Meteor-3 Liquid 800–1000km 760–1100kgNo-Dong

Ghadr-1 Powerful-1 Liquid 1600km 750kgDeployed?

Iran Has the Largest, Most Diverse Missile Inventory in the Middle East

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Iranian Missile Capabilities

Shahab-1/2

Shahab-3 Shahab-3MGhadr-1 Kavoshgar

Safir- SLV

Based on Based on NodongNodong Engine EngineScudScud Engine Engine

Simorgh- SLV

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Steps Toward a Safir MRBM

0

500

1000

1500

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Range [km]

Pa

ylo

ad

Ma

ss

[k

g]

Shahab-3

Ghadr-1

Four Scud-Enginemissile

Iran’sRequirement

Safir MRBM

New System

New Airframe

Added2nd Stage

ExistingMissiles

Shahab-1

Shahab-2

Liquid Propellant Systems

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Simorgh satellite launcher development is part of an ambitious space program with the goal of placing a man in space by the end of this decade.

Inaugural launch scheduled for next year.

Basis for an IRBM?

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Fateh-110A

Ashura/Sajjil-2

Iran is the only country to have developed a missile of the Sajjil-2’s reach without first having developed a nuclear weapon.

Solid Propellant Systems

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Kill Probabily vs. Missile Accuracy

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

0 200 400 600 800 1000

CEP [m]

Kil

l o

r D

estr

uct

ion

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Hardened Structure

Lethal

Shahab-1

Ghadr-1

Number of Missiles Needed to Reliably Destroy a Hardened Target

1

10

100

1000

10000

0 200 400 600 800 1000

CEP [m]

Nu

mb

er o

f M

issi

les

Req

uir

ed

Shahab-1

Ghadr-1

50% Confidence

75% Confidence

90% Confidence

Military Utility

Iran’s missiles lack the accuracyto be militarily effective.

But, they could be used as a terror weapon, designed to sow fear and degrade political resolve; casualties would likely be limited to a few hundred.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Nuclear warheads have a much stronger strategic logic, if Iran can make a bomb small enough.

The most likely delivery platform for a notional Iranian nuclear weapon would be the Ghadr-1, or possibly the Shahab-3.

After development, the Sajjil-2.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

maximum

Likely Sajjilperformance

minimum

One TonBombw/RV

Ghadr-1 w/One ton bomb

Development of the Sajjil-2 may have been prompted by concerns that a one-ton, first generation bomb design could not be delivered to Israel by the Ghadr-1, unless launched from positions along the Iran-Iraq border, where the launcher and missile would be vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Iran has invested heavily to establish an indigenous production capacity

– Considerable success to date; but still dependent on foreign sources for key components, materials and manufacturing equipment

– Solid-propellant industries more capable than Liquid-fueled counterparts

• Cannot develop new liquid-fueled engine indigenously• Could produce larger solid-propellant motors with minimal foreign

assistance

Established disciplined, robust engineering management processes which enables future developments

– Capable of introducing moderately sophisticated countermeasures

Missiles will remain inaccurate

Status of Iran’s Missile Industries

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Liquid-Propellant missiles constrained by limited technology base; no new engine development possible

• Intercontinental Missile (ICBM) would be more than 100 tons

• Available engines sufficient for future space launch vehicles

• Man in space by 2019?

Three stage Sajjil missile possible (3500km)• Two to five year flight test program

Second generation Intermediate Range Missile (IRBM) at least six to ten years away, based on experiences elsewhere

• Four year flight test program – minimum time

Based on Iran’s history, IRBM development before an ICBM

Notional, 9000km ICBM at least a decade away

Future Missiles: What and When ?

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Scud/Shahab-1/-2 Qiam

New RVOld Conical RV

Separationplane

Fins

No Fins

Recent Developments

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Centre of Gravity

Separation Plane

Volume for Weapons PayloadFuse

60-61cm

~1.3m

~ 88cm

1.25 m

Qiam Nosecone length

Ghadr-1 Nosecone length

Recent Developments

Common warhead for all missiles?

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Unknowns

R-27/ BM-25/ Musudan

DPRK Military Parade on 11 October 2010

Nodong resembling the Ghadr-1

Joint Development Efforts?

Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Russian R-27 developed as a submarine launched missile

• Capable of 2400km range, with 650 kg warhead

• Enhanced performance propellants (UDMH-N2O4)

Must be modified for use as a road-mobile missile• Structural reinforcements required• Oxidizer very sensitive to temperature

changes; missile must be thermally protected

Musudan has been lengthened, and reinforced?

Range-Payload performance similar to original R-27• Enhanced accuracy possible if state-of-the-

art navigation units incorporated, but unlikely

Musudan/BM-25 is a NEW MISSILE; has not been flight tested!!

BM-25 (Musudan, R-27)

Musudan