ipsos mori political monitor - january 2016...source: ipsos mori political monitor january 2016 (lib...
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2016 POLITICAL MONITOR 29.01.2016
VOTING INTENTIONS
Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
39%
33%
10%
5%
8% 5%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +6 Conservative lead = +9
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
40%
31%
11%
4%
7% 7%
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3
SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
+2.5% swing from December 2015
-0.5% swing from December 2015
-1.5% swing from December 2015
-1.5% swing from December 2015
-1.5% swing from December 2015
-9 Net -18 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 56%
Satisfaction with Party leaders Dec’8 – Jan’16
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
6 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
42%
31%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
31%
22%
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Ne
t sa
tisfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
51%
7%
January 2016 August 2006 –January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ma
y-0
6
Oct-
06
Jun
-07
Dec-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Oct-
08
Ma
r-0
9
Au
g-0
9
Jan
-10
Jun
-10
Dec-1
0
Ma
y-1
1
Oct-
11
Ma
r-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
Nov-1
3
Ap
r-14
Se
p-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -9
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 332 Conservative supporters 18+ 23rd – 25th January 2016.
9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
82%
14%
4%
January 2016 July 2006 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
y 0
6A
ug 0
6Jan
07
Jun
07
Se
p 0
7Jan
08
Ap
r 08
Jul 08
Oct-
08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct-
14
Jan
-15
Ap
r 15
Jul-
15
Nov-1
5
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 82
DISSATISFIED 14
DON’T KNOW 4
Net = +68
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Ja
n-1
6
31%
49%
20%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
SATISFIED 31
DISSATISFIED 49
DON’T KNOW 20
Net = -18
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
54% 32%
14%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 306 Labour supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = +22
January 2016 September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
22%
32%
46%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 46%
Net = -10
September 2015 – January 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
61% 22%
17%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 72 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016 (Lib Dem supporters only)
SATISFIED 61%
DISSATISFIED 22%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = +39
September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep-1
3O
ct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec-1
3Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-
14
Nov-1
4D
ec-1
4Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
2A
pr-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5O
ct-
15
Nov-1
5D
ec-1
5Jan
-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
31%
49%
20%
January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 49%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = -18
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep-1
3O
ct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec-1
3Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-
14
Nov-1
4D
ec-1
4Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
2A
pr-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5O
ct-
15
Nov-1
5D
ec-1
5Jan
-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
87%
12% 1%
January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016
SATISFIED 87%
DISSATISFIED 12%
DON’T KNOW 1%
Net = +75 Dissatisfied
Satisfied
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ma
r-0
4
De
c-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Jul-
06
Jul-
07
Ma
y-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
No
v-0
9
Se
p-1
0
Jun
-11
Ma
r-1
2
De
c-1
2
Se
p-1
3
Jun
-14
Ma
r-1
5
Jan
-16
IMPROVE 26%
STAY THE SAME 31%
GET WORSE 39%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -13
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
De
c 1
997
Jul 19
98
Fe
b 1
999
Se
p 1
999
Ap
r 20
00
No
v 2
000
Jun
20
01
Jan
20
02
Au
g 2
002
Ma
r 2
00
3
Oct
20
03
Ma
y 2
00
4
De
c 2
004
Jul 20
05
Fe
b 2
006
Se
p 2
006
Ap
r 20
07
No
v 2
007
Jun
20
08
Jan
20
09
Au
g 2
009
Ma
r 2
01
0
Oct
20
10
Ma
y 2
01
1
De
c 2
011
Jul 20
12
Fe
b 2
013
Se
p 2
013
Ap
r 20
14
No
v 2
014
Jun
20
15
Jan
20
16
-13
EUROPE
61
52 53 50
27
39 36
38
12 9
11 12
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Stay in Get out Don’t know
European referendum
Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
20 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Trend since 1977
21 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
26%
60% 63%
52% 49%
53% 51%
41%
61%
50%
65%
29% 27% 36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan
-78
Jan
-79
Jan
-80
Jan
-81
Jan
-82
Jan
-83
Jan
-84
Jan
-85
Jan
-86
Jan
-87
Jan
-88
Jan
-89
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT
EU Referendum question:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Base: 513 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
22 SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
36%
52%
12%
32%
58%
10%
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
EUROPEAN UNION?
December 2015
36%
55%
9%
January 2016
6 5
4 5
32
32
30
26
37 36
37 38
20
24
26 25
4 3
3 5
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don’t know
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU
deal for Britain
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
23 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONFIDENT 38
NOT CONFIDENT 57
CONFIDENT 37
NOT CONFIDENT 60
CONFIDENT 34
NOT CONFIDENT 63
CONFIDENT 31
NOT CONFIDENT 63
57%
40%
3%
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
24
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: 919 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 918 British adults 18+ giving an opinion, 17th – 19th October 2015
January 2016
58%
39%
3%
1%
17%
64%
13%
5%
Will Cameron achieve his goals?
25 DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW
December 2015
2%
18%
64%
11%
5%
January 2016
PARTY IMAGE
Parties and their leaders, and whether they look after
the interests of people like you
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
43%
16% 4% 2%
3%
16%
16%
….has the best team of leaders to deal with the
country’s problems?
….would be best at looking after the interests of people like
you
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
27
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW
33%
29%
8%
5%
5%
9%
10%
Parties and their policies
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
25%
6% 4% 4%
10%
15%
….has the best policies for the country as a whole? ….is most clear and united about what its polices should be
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
28
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW
33%
13% 11% 5%
8%
15%
15%
SHAREHOLDER DIVIDEND AND THE LIVING WAGE
Support for withholding shareholder dividend if do not
pay the living wage. (Split Sample)
30 I’D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE LIVING WAGE. THE LIVING WAGE IS A SALARY WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR WORKERS TO HAVE A
NORMAL STANDARD OF LIVING, MEANING THEY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD EVERYDAY THINGS LIKE FOOD, TRANSPORT
AND PAYING BILLS.
Source: Ipsos MORI
17%
66%
5%
SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
24%
60%
5%
A) Does not mention Jeremy Corbyn B) Mentions Jeremy Corbyn
Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
IT HAS BEEN PROPOSED [BY JEREMY CORBYN] THAT COMPANIES SHOULD BE BANNED FROM PAYING THEIR SHAREHOLDERS DIVIDENDS
UNLESS THEIR STAFF EARN THE LIVING WAGE. PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THIS IDEA?
TRIDENT AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Support for nuclear disarmament (Split Sample)
32
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
58%
34%
8%
SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
70%
24%
6%
A) Could you please tell me whether you support
or oppose the following policy? Get rid of all
nuclear weapons in Britain.
B) Could you please tell me whether you support or
oppose the following policy? Get rid of all nuclear
weapons in Britain even if other countries keep theirs.
52%
28%
16%
5%
Future of Britain's Trident submarines AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE IS A DEBATE CURRENTLY ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD REPLACE ITS TRIDENT SUBMARINES WHICH ARE
NEARING THE END OF THEIR LIFE. THESE ARE THE SUBMARINES FROM WHICH BRITAIN WERE TO LAUNCH NUCLEAR MISSILES IF IT WAS EVER TO
DO SO
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BUILD NEW SUBMARINES AND
HAVE THEM CARRY NUCLEAR
WARHEADS
BUILD NEW SUBMARINES BUT
DO NOT HAVE THEM CARRY
NUCLEAR WARHEADS
DO NOT BUILD NEW
SUBMARINES SO TO
DISCONTINUE THE TRIDENT
PROGRAMME
DON’T KNOW
33
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, JEREMY CORBYN, THE LABOUR LEADER, SAID IF THESE SUBMARINES ARE REPLACED THEY "DON’T HAVE TO HAVE
NUCLEAR WARHEADS ON THEM". THIS WOULD MEAN THE SUBMARINES WOULD BE REPLACED BUT DO NOT CARRY NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DO SO.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ABOUT RENEWING BRITAIN’S TRIDENT SUBMARINES?
2016 POLITICAL MONITOR