ipsos mori: scottish public opinion monitor: december 2013
DESCRIPTION
Support for independence bounces back: As we enter the final nine months of campaigning before next year’s referendum, our latest poll for STV News will provide a boost for those arguing in favour of Scotland becoming an independent country. Among those certain to vote in next year’s referendum, 34% would vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum were held now (up by three percentage points from September 2013) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (down two points) and 10% are undecided.TRANSCRIPT
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor December 2013
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Independence referendum
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All = 1,006; all certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
31%
55%
14%
All voters
‘Yes’
Change
since
34%
57%
10%
Certain to vote
‘Yes’ Change
since
September
+3
Yes
No
Undecided
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ja
n-1
2
Feb-1
2
Ma
r-12
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Yes No Undecided
57%
34%
10%
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 727. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
36%
64%
All voters
37%
63%
Certain to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (580). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
37%
63%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
Yes
No
Yes Change
since
September
+4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
Yes No
63%
37%
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Floating voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (203); all undecided (138). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th
November – 5th December 2013
37%
63%
All giving a voting intention but may change their mind
27%
34%
38%
All undecided – inclined to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
Undecided
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here Support for independence – long-term trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
ence
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
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here Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
41%
52%
27%
61%
40%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Men Women
% voting Yes
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here Voting intention by age group
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
Yes
No
34%
56%
30%
59% 11%
40%
50%
10%
29%
62% 9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
45%
47%
26%
68%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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96% 3% 91% 6%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
Yes
No
74%
15%
18%
73% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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Impact of the ‘White Paper’
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As you may know the Scottish Govt recently published its White Paper, ‘Scotland’s Future’, which outlines their plans for an independent
Scotland. Based on what you may have read, seen or heard, what impact, if any, will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum?
Impact of the white paper
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
18%
20%
51%
9%
More likely to voteYes
More likely to voteNo
Make no difference
Haven't read, seenor heard anythingabout it
Don't know
14%
12%
45%
19%
9%
All
Undecided
voters
22%
13%
43%
17%
5%
May
change
mind
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 29th November – 5th December 2013
• Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless
otherwise stated
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