ipsos mori / halifax housing market confidence tracker: q3 2015

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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends

01/10/2015

Q3 2015

Q3 2015

© Ipsos MORI

*

House Price Outlook (HPO)

* benchmark given = £198,883 (source: Halifax HPI July 2015)

% mentioning

Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*]

4

32

24

9

21

Lower by

15% or

more

Lower

by 10%-

15%

Lower

by 5%-

10%

Lower

but less

than 5%

lower

The

same

Higher

but less

than 5%

higher

Higher

by 5%-

10%

Higher

by 10%-

15%

Higher

by 15%

or more

5

Don’t

know

Lower Higher

* 1

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 11-24 Sept 2015

3

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

+52

+60 +64

+58

+68 +64 +63

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]


Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2 +7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

+52 +60

+64 +58

+68 + 64 +63

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15

+23 +29

+24 +19

+5 +12

+11

+21 +21 +26

+16 +1

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of or during HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker


© Ipsos MORI

+9

-2

+7

+19

+15 +15 +20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

+57 +62

+52

+60 +64

+58

+68 +64 +63

18 13

10

24

15 11 13

21

30

41

51 56 57 53 51

55 52

56 59

56 60 59

52

-20

0

20

40

60

80

HPO

Sellingsentiment



Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling sentiment –

% agree good time

to sell

HPO – + balance

of % higher

minus % lower


© Ipsos MORI

‘Higher’ trends

3%

9%

24%

32%

21%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40




% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

% 10 - 15% higher


© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

*%

1%

4%

21%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40




% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower

% 10 - 15% lower


© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18 +17

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

+15

-38

+24

-55

+23

-62

+27


Apr

2011

Oct

2011 Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012

Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013

Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

Mar

2014

+24

+25 +34

+25

+5

Jul

2014

+11

+19

Sept

2014

+26

+24

+14

+25

Nov

2014 Dec

2014

+27

+21

Jan

2015

+35

+27

Feb

2015 Mar

2015

+21

+33

+26

+30

Apr

2015

+27

+34

May

2015

+25

+32

June

2015

+20

+20

Sept

2015

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

16% 16%

36%

16%

Buying/selling sentiment combined


Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 11 Sept – 24 Sept

Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

-5 +4 0 +2

+ change vs June 2015

© Ipsos MORI

63 %

higher

Regional dimension: house prices

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

68%

higher

GB London

South

England

76%

higher

North

England

79%

higher

Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE,

Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands.

58%

higher

Midlands

7%

lower 3%

lower

5%

lower 5%

lower

3%

lower

© Ipsos MORI

46% bad time

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?


GB London

South

England

North

England Midlands

53%

good time

53% good

time

30%

bad time 25%

bad time

33%

bad time

58%

good time

40%

good time

38%

bad time



50%

good time

© Ipsos MORI

60%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?


32%

bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

52%

good time 47% good time

28%

bad time

35%

bad time

64%

good time

43% good time

38%

bad time 21%

bad time



© Ipsos MORI

Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend

58%

35%

5%

10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher

Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower

Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same?

Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower

or the same?


Base: c.1000 British adults1,956 age 16+

% mortgage higher

% mortgage lower

% savings higher

% savings lower

© Ipsos MORI

57%

42%

36%

31%

17%

16%

11%

10%

9%

3%

3%

2%

Being able to raise enough deposit

Job security

Household finances

Rising property prices

The general availability of mortgages

Concerns about rises in interest rates

Fees related to buying a house

Shortage of property for sale

Shortage of the right type of property

The level of stamp duty/taxation

Falling property prices

Don’t know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?


Barriers to buying

Change + vs June 2015

+2

-5

+3

+2

0

+2

0

0

0

+1

-4

-1

Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015

© Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices

% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy

% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation

11%

Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think

are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Barriers to buying – trend data

57%

42%

36%

31%

17%

16%

9%


Base: 1,000 – 2,000 British adults 16+

3%

10%

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01/10/2015 © Ipsos MORI

Further information is available here

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3167/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

ipsos mori / halifax housing market confidence tracker: q3 2015

Real Estate