ipsos mori halifax housing market confidence tracker q3 2014

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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends

15/10/2014

Q3 2014

Q3 2014

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+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

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+9

-2 +7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15

+23 +29

+24

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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+9

-2

+7

+19

+15 +15 +20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

18% 13%

10%

24%

15% 11% 13%

21%

30%

41%

51% 56% 57% 53%

-20

0

20

40

60

80


HPO

Sellingsentiment(%)



Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling

sentiment

(% agree good

time to sell)

HPO – balance

of % higher

minus % lower


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‘Higher’ trends

3%

9%

28% 28%

18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40





% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

% 10 - 15% higher


© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

0% 1% 1%

4%

18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40





% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower

% 10 - 15% lower


© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18 +17

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

+15

-38

+24

-55

+23

-62

+27


Apr

2011

Oct

2011

Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012

Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013

Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

Mar

2014

+24

+25 +34

+25

+5

Jul

2014

+11

+19

Sept

2014

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Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

14% 17% 35%

19%

Buying/selling sentiment combined


Base: 2,042 GB adults 16+, 12-23 September 2014

Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

+3 0 -7 +2

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66%

higher

Regional dimension: house prices

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

68%

higher

6%

lower

GB London

South

England

79%

higher

7%

lower

North

England

79%

higher

4%

lower

Base: 2,042 GB adults 12-21 July 2014, including 330 in London, 374 South England (SE, SW), 545 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and

300 in the Midlands.

65%

higher

Midlands

5%

lower

7%

lower

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50%

good time

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?


GB London

South

England

North

England Midlands

38%

bad time



55%

bad time

33%

good time

49%

good time

50%

good time

33%

bad time

55%

good time

31%

bad time

38%

bad time

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59%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?


34%

bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

53%

good time

70%

good time 50%

good time



44%

19%

bad time

30%

bad time

43%

bad time 33%

bad time

© Ipsos MORI

PRS rent expectations (PRS renters)

11%

57%

28%

2% 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12Mar-12Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and

companies in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from

this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be

higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time?


Base: c300-400 private renters

% a little higher

% the same

% a lot higher

% a lot/little lower

© Ipsos MORI

57%

47%

39%

29%

22%

19%

10%

7%

5%

4%

2%

2%

Raise deposit

Job security

Household finances

Rising property prices

Availability of mortgages

Concerns - interest rate rises

Fees and costs of buying a house

Shortage of property for sale

Shortage of the right type of property

Level of stamp duty / taxation

Falling property prices

Don't know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 2,042 GB adults 16+, 12-21 September 2014

Barriers to buying

Change +

+2

-2

+11

+1

0

+1

0

0

+1

-1

-6

-1

© Ipsos MORI

0

20

40

60


% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices

% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy

% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation

Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think

are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?

Barriers to buying (trend data)

57%

47%

39%

29%

22% 19%

10%

7% 5%

2%


Base: c.2,000 British adults 16+

4%

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15/10/2014

Further information is available here

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http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3167/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

ipsos mori halifax housing market confidence tracker q3 2014

Real Estate