investor presentation 29 february 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011...

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Investor Presentation 29 February 2016

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Page 1: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Investor Presentation

29 February 2016

Page 2: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Key investment highlights

1

Tailored strategy to create sound and secure profitability

Part of a dedicated energy group1

Largest quoted Independent Power Producer (IPP) in Turkey2

Strong exposure to growing Turkish electricity market 3

Large portfolio with 17 operational assets totalling 2,211 MW4

Diversified pipeline of 7 projects adding 496 MW to our portfolio5

Best-in-class asset management and investment capabilities6

7

Page 3: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

2

We are part of a dedicated energy group

Highlights

Description

Net

Sales

Kazancı Group

Entered energy business in 1960s with the production of generating sets

Focused only on the energy sector since then

Gradually expanded into main segments of electricity & natural gas

Excellent track record in building and integrating energy businesses

Direct negotiation with suppliers

100%

Generating Sets

Production & Sales

TL 820m(3)

Leading player of Turkey

exporting 60% of production

2 production sites (Turkey

and China), 13 sales

subsidiaries and recently

established a JV in the US

Aksa Generating Sets

62%

Electricity

Generation

TL2,320m(4)

Largest quoted IPP in Turkey

Free float of 21.4%

Goldman Sachs holds

16.6%(1) stake in the

Company

Market cap of TL1.5 bn(2)

Aksa Enerji

100%

Electricity

Distribution & Sales

TL1,486m(3)

Two electricity regions

with c. 2.1m customers

and c. 6.1 TWh of annual

consumption

Aksa Electricity Distribution

100%

Natural Gas

Distribution & Sales

TL 2,404m (3)

Largest private natural gas

distribution group in Turkey

with 20 distribution licenses

and c.1.9 million customers

and c.6.7 bcm gas

distribution

Aksa Natural Gas

(1) Kazancı Holding currently controls the voting right of Goldman Sachs shares.

(2) As at 26 Feb 2016

(3) Audited results, 2014

(4) Audited results, 2015

Kazancı Holding is one of the leading fully integrated energy player in Turkey, active in all segments of energy business

Page 4: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

2.800 2.800

2.211

1.6651.490

1.2921.011 952

365

Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz Enerji AES Entek

3

We are the largest quoted IPP in Turkey with 2,211 MW installed capacity

IPPs by Installed Capacity

Publicly listed companies

(MW

)

Share of Aksa Enerji in Installed

Capacity of Turkey (MW)

Aksa Enerji is the third largest IPP in Turkey in terms of installed capacity and the largest by far, amongst publicly traded IPPs.

3,1%

3,8% 3,6%

3,2% 3,1% 2,8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

2,0%

2,7%

3,7% 3,8% 3,9%

4,8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10,5%9,9%

12,0%

10,8%

8,5%

10,4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual

Generation of Turkey (MWh)

Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual

Generation of IPPs (MWh)

• Adjusted for OTC

Source: TEİAŞ, company information.

Source: Information obtained from each IPP’s annual report or website.

Page 5: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

21%

0%

27%52%

1,82,8

8,1

6,1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Turkey - 2003 Turkey - 2012 OECD Average - 2012 EU Average - 2012

We provide strong exposure to the growing Turkish electricity market

4

Demand Increasingly Supplied by IPPs (1) Spot Market Electricity Prices (1)

Increasing per Capita Consumption (2)

3

2

4

2015 Generation

16%

45% 2%

37%

2003 Generation

MWh/pa

IPPs

EÜAŞ

Auto-producers

BOO,

BOT, TOR

BOO, BOT,

TOR

EÜAŞ

Auto-producers

IPPs

1.8x141 TWh 259 TWh(3)

56%

Strong Electricity Demand Growth (1)1

Low

Demand

Scenario

High

Demand

Scenario

35% of

OECD

Average

(1) Source: TEİAŞ.

(2) Source: World Bank.

(3) 2015 YE figure

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

2021E

2022E

2023E

264

CAGR – Low Demand: 4.7%

TWh

CAGR: 5.3%

141

463

381

CAGR – High Demand: 7.3%

1Q14: 160 TL 2Q14: 158 TL 3Q14: 176 TL 4Q14: 173 TL 1Q15: 151 TL 2Q15: 113 TL 3Q15: 156 TL 4Q15: 149 TL

166

174

140

162 157 155

179 181169

158

184176179

145

128

103111

126

139

161167

141136

169

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015

Page 6: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Fuel-Oil

Power Plant

(4 plants)

NORTHERN CYPRUS

153 MW

MANISA

115 MW

ANTALYA

1,150 MW

5

We have 17 assets under operation across Turkey

BALIKESIR ŞAMLI

114 MW

MANISA KARAKURT

11 MW

MARDIN-2

33 MW

HATAY SEBENOBA

60 MW

ŞANLIURFA

147 MW

MARDIN-1

32 MW

Total 2,211 MW

AYVACIK AYRES

5 MW

ŞIRNAK

24 MW

ÇORUM-İNCESU

15 MW

14

13

11

9

8

7

6

5

4

2

Natural Gas Power

Plant

(3 plants)

Wind Farm

(7 farms)

Hydroelectrical

Power Plant

(2 plants)

BALIKESİR KAPIDAĞ

24 MW

3

KIYIKÖY

27 MW

1

AKKÖY

13 MW

16

259 MW

12%242 MW

12%

1,412 MW

64%28 MW

1%

12

15BOLU-GÖYNÜK

270 MW

Lignite

Power Plant

(1 plant)

270 MW

12%

17

HATAY - ATİK / BELEN

18 MW

10

Page 7: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Each of our assets has key specifications to fortify our strategy

6

Favorable long-term contract in

Northern Cyprus. Wartsila engine-

driven 153 MW CC plant with a

purchase guarantee for 15+3

years (2027).

3 additional PPs, with a total

capacity of 89 MW, to benefit from

regional supply shortages via

engine-driven technology with

Wartsila engines

370MW HFO Project under

development in Ghana

2 peak-shaving natural gas fired

power plants across Turkey with

a total capacity of 262 MW with

Wartsila engines

Combined cycle engine-driven

technology suitable for peak-

shaving

Peak-shaving Natural Gas Fired PPsB

Fuel-oil Fired PPs

Located in a favorable wind

corridor with high load factors

7 farms, with a total capacity of

259 MW, under operation with

Vestas equipments

4 farms under construction, all of

which are extentions

1 Project under development, at

licence stage.

Wind FarmsD

Favorable hydrology to benefit

high capacity utilization factors

2 plants under operation with

Andritz hydro turbines

1 plant under construction to be

operational by the end of 1H16.

Hydroelectrical PPsE

270 MW local lignite fired power

plant with S.E.S CFB boilers

and Skoda turbines fully

operational providing base load

power

Aksa Enerji owns and operates

the on-site lignite mine which

will be sufficient to supply fuel

for the lifetime of the plant

Lignite Fired PPF

One of the most efficient CCGT

plants in Turkey, with a

capacity of 1,150 MW with

Siemens and GE equipment

Provides base load power

Baseload Natural Gas Fired PP – AntalyaA

C

Page 8: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

612 MW

1.412 MW

270 MW

304 MW

109 MW

2016 Under Construction Licenced Total Pipeline 2017

2,707 MW

Hydro 81 MW

Wind 45 MW

7

HFO 370 MW

7(1) Datça wind farm, which is intended to be acquired from Kazancı Holding, is listed under licensed as it is not yet operational.

We have a diversified pipeline of 7 projects adding 496 MW to our portfolio

2,211 MW

Natural GasFuel-oil Wind HydroLignite Number of PPs

PipelineCurrent Installed

Capacity

6 1

484 MW

12 MW

496 MW

1 Wind

1 HFO

1 Hydro

4 Wind

Total Installed

Capacity

1 Hydro

5 Wind

1 HFO

Page 9: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

188

51

239 259

16

275

15

1328 28

81

109135

135

270

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 Additions 2014 2015 2016 Additions 2016

Targeted Capacity Increases in Renewables & Lignite (MW)

10% 12% 28%20%

1.4

318

690

1.342

1.542

2.0362.048 2.052

2.140

2,076

2,678 2,707

944 1.018

3.053

4.227

6.181

9.784 9.109 9.814

14.018

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

1997 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

42% 36% 42% 44% 51% 60% 60%80%56% 59%

Lignite

60%

We target to create significant cost improvement with our renewables and lignite fired PP pipeline

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Lignite

(+) 81 MW Hydro

(+) 16 MW Wind

(+) 370 MW HFO

8Estimated capacity utilization (1)

Capacity utilization (1)Sales

Fuel-Oil

Natural

Gas

Hydro

Wind

% of total

installed capacity Wind Hydro Lignite Estimated Generation (GWh)

MW

Sales

(GWh)

(1) Calculated as Sales (MWh) / (Capacity (MW) * 8000 hours)

(2) Adjusted for OTC sales

MWh

2.1x

Hydro

Natural

Gas

Wind

Fuel-Oil

(2)

Page 10: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

9

43% increase in total sales YoY.

Share of renewables & local resources &sourcing has decreased by 1 ppt

mainly due to the introduction of OTC volumes to reduce our cost base

when spot prices are low.

Our off-peak sourcing abilities, OTC volumes and purchase amounts to further increase as the contracted sales volume increases.

Improving Lower Cost Output

19% 18%

% of Renewables

Local Sourcing

Company Highlights - Cost Structure (TL)

Cost Structure vs. Sales Price (2015)

149

103

147 180

73

35

45

35

1213

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

Natural Gas Renewables Sourcing OTC Fuel-oil Lignite

Fuel Cost Opex Fixed Opex (lignite) Variable Opex (lignite)

98

147

185

45

215

Blending of more cost-effective renewables and lignite, along with

sourcing from spot prices at off-peak times and from the OTC market to

supply our customers provides us a better cost base.

«Renewable resource» pipeline of 126 MW till the end of 2017 will

further decrease our cost base.

270 MW Bolu/Göynük lignite-fired PP became fully operational, which

will significantly decrease the cost of production.

The cost of production at Bolu was 98TL, higher than forecasted 80TL,

due high OPEX during the testing period of second phase. 80TL avg cost

continues to be our base case.

TL/MWh

103

177.6*135Weighted Avg.

Cost

Weighted Avg.

Sales Price

779 717

7.212

4.084

537

567

-

319

1.286

1.664

4.908

2014 2015

Fuel Oil NG Renewables Lignite Sourcing OTC & End User

14,018 GWh

9,814 GWh 48% 59%

* Adjusted

Page 11: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

2015

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2010 2015

Balancing Market

Northern Cyprus

Wholesale Bilateral

Retail Bilateral

Total ContractedSales

Sales to BSM

TWh

4.2 TWh

14 TWh

BSM

Contracted

BSM

Contracted

44% 80% (adj)

245 bilateral customers(1)

592 GWh contracted sales

out of which 186 GWh is bilateral

14% of total sales

125,912 bilateral customers(1)

9.04 TWh contracted sales

64% of total sales

14%

64%

(1) Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. Aksa Enerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group.

86%

36%

2010 - Contracted Sales 2015- Contracted Sales

9

5

Capacity Utilization

0.6

3.6

2010

3.6

0.6

2015 Average Sales Price (TL/MWh)

170 184

295

171 180

Bilateral Affiliated DisCos Northern Cyprus BSM Renewables

Total Contracted Average: 213 Total BSM Average: 172

Company Highlights - Sales mix and prices (TL)

Page 12: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

5

Electricity distribution

regions of Kazancı Holding

Further Room for Growth

in Affiliated Regions (5)

2,1 mn 6,1 TWhAksa

Enerji

11

At the same time, we are shifting bilateral mix towards more profitable commercial clients

Evolution of Eligibility Limit

2003 2004 2013

Market

Openness (1)

9,000

77%23%

Eligibility

Threshold

(MWh/Year)25

(1) Consumption of eligible customers divided by total consumption.

(2) Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. Aksa Enerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group.

(3) Commercial and household clients. (4) Includes actual contracted and sold as at Jan 2016 and an estimate for YE. (5) Aksa Enerji are figures, 2016E contracted volume and affiliated distribution regions are

based on latest available data.

Increasing Contracted Volume Supported by

Affiliated Distribution Regions

-100

1.200

2.500

3.800

5.100

6.400

7.700

9.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016EContracted

Already

contracted

# of Bilateral

Customers (2)

% of

Commercial

Customers (3)

GWh

36%

245

81%

1,275

98%

186

2,303

3,782

Total bilateral sales volumeIndustrial volume Commercial volume

64%

610

5,996

ÇORUH

FIRAT

Potential97%76%

3%24%

CustomerBreakdown

VolumeBreakdown

Tariffs and Aksa Bilateral Sales Price (TL/MWh)

24,98720152014

4.0

1.5x

4.5

8,744

85,987

99%

2005 2006 2007 2008 201120102009 2012 2016

3.6

99%

9,041

125,912

(4)

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-14

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Commercial Tariff Industrial Tariff Aksa Blended Bilateral Price

"increase in Industrial Customer "increase in Commercial Customer Base" (3)

Δ= 4%

Page 13: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

12

Increased Elasticity of ProductionImproving Non-Fuel Cost Efficiency (3)

¢/kWh

(1) Estimated capex based on budgeted investment of Göynük lignite fired PP.

(2) BOTAS gas prices excluding special consumption tax as end of relevant year converted at year end exchange rates.

(3) Total energy production related costs including cost of production factors (other than direct materials) and operating exp.

1,6

1,5

1,4

0,4

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0

Hydro

Lignite

Wind

CCGT

US$m/MW

Low Unit Capex

We have successfully increased efficiencies of our CCGT plants and managed to cut our OPEX to improve our cost base

1,75

1,14

0,660,60

0,750,63 0,66

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Natural Gas Cost (TL/MWh) Thermal Efficiency (%)

TL/MWh

(2)

Improving Fuel Efficiency

179

147177

170163 160

176 180171 171

191 191

168

129

175 169

130

119

145

130

116 126135

145144 142

154148

124

94

124 122

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

TL Peak / Off-Peak Prices

Peak Off-Peak

Page 14: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Aksa Enerji- Business Update

13

Bolu Göynük’s 1st phase (135 MW) became operational in July 2015 and the 2nd phase (135 MW) in January 2016.

Sebenoba WPP’s extention has been completed and a total of 17 MW installed capacity has become operational in 1H15, increasing the installed capacity of WPPs to 259 MW.

Kozbükü HES’ installed capacity was amended from 62MW to 81MW with EMRA’s approval.

We have signed an emergency PPA with the Republic of Ghana to install and operate a 370MW HFO plant, which is expected to start becoming operational in 2016 gradually.

We have cancelled the generation licence of Samsun CCGT plant, as per our application to Energy Market RegulatoryAuthority, which had an installed capacity of 131 MW.

Page 15: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Aksa Enerji- Business Update

14

18 MW from Samsun CCGT plant was installed in Şanlıurfa CCGT to increase its capacity to 147 MW.

33 MW from Samsun CCGT plant was installed in Northern Cyprus HFO to increase its capacity to 153 MW.

Remaining 80 MW capacity from Samsun is planned to be deployed to Ghana.

As per our application to Energy Market Regulatory Authority, generation licence of Siirt Akköy HFO plant, which had an installed capacity of 24MW, has been cancelled.

We have cancelled the generation licence of Van CCGT plant, as per our application to Energy Market RegulatoryAuthority, which had an installed capacity of 115 MW.

Page 16: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Ghana PPA- To provide fast track USD based cash generation

15

5 year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Republic of Ghana for installation of a 370 MW HFO plant, electricity generation and the guaranteed sale of this energy.

Approved by the parliament of Republic of Ghana

Can be extended before the 5 year term is completed

Electricity generated to be sold in full to Ghana with purchase guarantee and in USD

Received tariff and licence approval by the Energy Commission of Ghana

USD based sales to provide a natural hedge decreasing our FX losses

80 MW of Samsun CCGT already transformed into HFO to be transferred to Ghana

To be operational in 2016 gradually

To increase our operational profitability significantly

Page 17: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

2016 Guidance – Financials

16

Sales: 22 TWh ( bilateral and BSM sales)

Revenues: TRY 3.6 bn (adjusted)

Average Aksa Price: TRY 160-163 (vs expected average market price of TRY141)

CAPEX: USD 140 mn

EBITDA: TRY 500 mn

Page 18: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

(1) Total contracted sales include bilateral sales, Northern Cyprus sales, exports and sales to affiliated DisCos. (2) Total spot sales include sales to Balancing & Settlement Market, renewable sales and regional sales.

(3) Calculated as Sales (MWh) / (Capacity (MW) * 8000 hours).

Tailored strategy to create sound and secure profitability

17

Evolution of Capacity and Sales Mix

1,542 MW

2,140 MW

2.707 MW

2010 2014 2017

Fuel OilFuel OilFuel Oil

Natural Gas

Natural Gas

Natural Gas

Hydro

WindWind

Lignite

14%

86%

Shifted strategy

to become baseload

producer

77%

23%Fortifying baseload

strategy & building cost

effective pipeline

Total Contracted (1) Total Contracted (1)

Total Spot (2)

Wind

Total Spot (2)

Total Contracted

Sales %14% 77%5.5x 2/3 of salesIncrease % of contracted sales

Capacity

Utilization (3) 44% 59%1.3x c. 60%Sustain capacity utilisation levels

Sales Volume 4,227 GWh 9,814 GWh2.3x c. 1.7xBoost generation/sales

EBITDA % 20.7% 17.6%(3.1%)Increase profitability with (i) low-cost pipeline and (ii) increasing

commercial client base

EBITDA TL188m TL344m1.8x Target: Sound increase in EBITDA

Page 19: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

The Sector

Page 20: Investor Presentation 29 February 2016...2016/02/29  · 2.800 2.800 2.211 1.665 1.490 1.292 1.011 952 365 Enerjisa Limak Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Eren Enerji Akenerji Zorlu Enerji Cengiz

Market Highlights- Generation & Consumption

19

Electricity generation increased by 3.6% YoY in 2015 compared to 2014 and the consumption

increased by 3.1%

239.293

250.381

259.439

225.000

230.000

235.000

240.000

245.000

250.000

255.000

260.000

265.000

2013 2014 2015

Generation (GWh)

245.484

255.490

263.612

230.000

235.000

240.000

245.000

250.000

255.000

260.000

265.000

270.000

2013 2014 2015

Consumption (GWh)

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Market Highlights - Installed Capacity

20

Total installed capacity in Turkey hasincreased by 3,632 MW Ytd to 73,148 MWin 2015 compared to 2014, representing anincrease of 5%.

The majority of the new capacity camefrom hydro (2,227MW) and wind(874MW).

654 MW natural gas capacity wasdecommissioned and a similar patterncould continue in the future periods.

A total of 6000 - 6,500 MW new capacitycould be expected to be operational in2016.

-750-500-250

0250500750

1.0001.2501.5001.7502.0002.250

Fuel-oil Coal &Lignite

Natural gas Hydro Wind Others

207

509

-654

2.227

874

469

MW Capacity Changes (2014 vs 2015)

Fossil Renewable

Fuel-oil; 1%

Coal & Lignite; 21%

Natural gas; 34%

Hydro; 35%

Wind; 6%

Others; 3%

2015 Installed Capacity: 73,148 MW

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Market Highlights - Prices

21

Prices – Weighted average prices wereweak in 2015, compared to 2014, due toheavy rain and snow fall increasingproduction from hydroelectric powerplants. There is a 14% differencebetween average prices in 2014 and2015 because of drought last year.

Compared to 2013 prices, wherehydrology was normal, 2015 prices are8% softer.

146

147

162166

160

158

176173

151

113

156

149

110,0

120,0

130,0

140,0

150,0

160,0

170,0

180,0

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Weighted Average Price (TL)

166

174

140

162157 155

179 181

169

158

184176179

145

128

103111

126

139

161167

141136

169156

107

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016

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FY 2015

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23

FY 2015 Results - Snap Shot

*

2012 2013 2014

Adjusted

2015

YoY

Change 4Q13 4Q14

Adjusted

4Q15

YoY

Change

Adjusted

1Q15

Adjusted

1H15

Adjusted

9M15

Adjusted

FY15

QoQ

Change

Installed Capacity (MW) 2.045 2.052 2.140 2.076 -64 MW 2.052 2.140 2.076 -64 MW 2.151 2.160 2.192 2.076 65 MW

Sales Volume (GWh) 9.784 9.109 9.814 14.018 43% 2.399 2.223 4.093 84% 3.013 5.768 9.925 14.018 31%

Net Sales (TL mn) 1.841 1.786 1.957 2.490 27% 457 448 708 58% 544 1.047 1.782 2.490 40%

Gross Profit (TL mn) 236 220 247 318 29% 48 45 48 7% 58 178 270 318 34%

Operating Inc. (TL mn) 218 196 208 288 39% 38 24 42 70% 54 163 246 288 34%

EBITDA (TL mn) 323 312 344 436 27% 72 68 88 30% 86 228 349 436 26%

Net Income (TL mn) 220 -133 39 -228 nm -64 -18 8 nm -97 -56 -236 -228 nm

EBITDA Margin 17,6% 17,5% 17,6% 17,5% -0.1 pp 15,8% 15,1% 12,4% +1.2 pp 15,9% 21,8% 19,5% 17,5% -2.0 pp

Operating Profit Margin 12,0% 11,0% 10,6% 11,6% +1.0 pp 8,3% 5,5% 5,9% +2.2 pp 9,9% 15,6% 13,8% 11,6% -2.2 pp

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24

FY 2015 Results - Adjusted

*

MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh MWh TL/MWh

Bilateral Agreements (end user) 204.998 171,52 37.305 169,83 195.541 167,36 - - 242.302 171,26 437.843 169,52 437.843 169,52

Northern Cyprus 170.814 261,78 168.578 295,81 179.794 351,93 175.353 266,56 339.393 278,68 519.187 304,05 694.540 294,58

Renewable Market (BSM Renewable) 99.740 168,52 104.792 173,62 111.701 190,91 125.813 185,65 204.531 171,13 316.232 178,12 442.045 180,26

BSM (excl Renewables& Regional Sales) 1.081.536 170,86 326.144 190,81 1.482.200 172,18 1.645.259 166,73 1.407.680 175,48 2.889.880 173,79 4.535.139 171,23

Affiliated DisCos 107.683 179,69 353.160 180,24 393.882 187,94 386.575 183,09 460.843 180,11 854.725 183,72 1.241.300 183,52

SALES FROM PRODUCTION 1.664.770 181 989.979 202,31 2.363.118 189 2.333.000 177,97 2.654.749 189 5.017.867 189 7.350.867 185,40

SALES via AKSA TOPTAN (OTC) 316.521 315.548 587.532 1.080.891 632.408 1.219.940 2.300.831

SALES via AKSA TOPTAN (end user) 1.031.884 1.449.271 1.206.746 678.750 2.480.816 3.687.562 4.366.312

TOTAL SALES 3.013.175 177,3 2.754.797 178,7 4.157.396 179,6 4.092.641 173,00 5.767.973 179,5 9.925.369 179,5 14.018.010 177,61

FY 20151Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 1H 2015 9M 20154Q 2015

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25

Financial highlights 2015Consolidated income statement

Net sales & EBITDA (TL mn)

Operating income & Net income (TL mn)

Source: IFRS financial statements

448

68

712

88

Net Sales EBITDA4Q14 4Q 15

EBITDA Margin4Q14: 15.1%4Q15: 12.4%

1.957

344

2.320

436

Net Sales EBITDA

2014 2015

EBITDA Margin2014: 17.6%2015: 17.5%

24

-18

42

8

Operating Income Net Income

4Q14 4Q 15

208

39

288

-228

Operating Income Net Income

2014 2015

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26

Financial highlights FY 2015Net financial debt and repayment schedule

Net financial debt (TL mn)

Repayment schedule of short and long term notes (TL mn)

Source: IFRS financial statements

35% of our bank loans is in TL, 50% isin USD and 15% in EUR.

1.138 1.270 1.280 1.306

1.781

2.538 55%61%

52%55%

62%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Financial Debt Leverage Ratio

6.0 4.24.04.2

Net Financial Debt/EBITDA

5.2 5.8

Short Term 1-2 Years 2-3 Years 3-4 Years 4-5 Years 5+ Years

224

537

674

309222

139

391

TL mn

Revolving facilities

Short-term portion of long-term

loans

761

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Financial HighlightsFY 2015

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28

Consolidated income statement

Source: IFRS financial statements

(TL mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015

Net sales 1315,4 1840,6 1786,0 1957,4 2320,0 353,4 502,9 751,2 712,4

Cost of sales -1088,0 -1604,0 -1565,9 -1710,8 -2001,6 -295,4 -383,4 -658,9 -664,0

Gross profit 227,4 236,6 220,1 246,6 318,3 58,0 119,6 92,3 48,4

Gross profit margin 17% 13% 12% 13% 14% 16% 24% 12% 7%

General & administrative costs -16,0 -16,7 -18,0 -22,2 -26,8 -4,0 -11,3 -6,4 -5,1

Sales and marketing costs -3,0 -2,1 -2,0 -2,0 -0,6 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,3

Research & development costs 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Other operating income 0,0 6,7 5,0 3,8 3,4 1,9 1,7 0,6 -0,8

Other operating expenses (-) 0,0 -21,4 -8,7 -18,5 -6,6 -2,2 -0,6 -3,1 -0,7

Operating income 208,3 203,0 196,3 207,6 287,8 53,6 109,3 83,4 41,5

Operating income margin 15,8% 11,0% 11,0% 10,6% 12,4% 15,2% 21,7% 11,1% 5,8%

Goodwill income/(expense) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Other income/(expense) -51,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Financing income/(expense) -273,5 23,2 351,6 199,6 219,0 67,3 29,3 82,2 40,2

Earnings before income tax -116,5 226,5 -156,1 26,6 -234,6 -113,1 41,1 -207,3 44,7

EBT margin -8,9% 12,3% -8,7% 1,4% -10,1% -32,0% 8,2% -27,6% 6,3%

Tax -5,5 -6,6 22,8 12,8 6,2 16,5 -0,1 26,9 -37,0

Net income -122,0 219,9 -133,3 39,4 -228,4 -96,6 41,0 -180,4 7,6

Net income margin -9,3% 11,9% -7,5% 2,0% -9,8% -27,3% 8,2% -24,0% 1,1%

EBITDA 300,8 323,1 311,8 343,9 436,2 86,4 141,2 121,0 87,6

EBITDA margin 22,9% 17,6% 17,5% 17,6% 18,8% 24,5% 28,1% 16,1% 12,3%

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29

Consolidated balance sheet

Source: IFRS financial statements

(TL mn)Assets (TL mn) 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cash and cash equivalents 40,6 22,3 34,2 48,5

Trade receivables net 245,9 142,3 88,7 182,6

Due from related parties and shareholders 593,9 0,0 4,4 0,0

Inventory 135,5 250,0 269,2 415,4

Derivative Financial Instruments – 2,7 2,7 0,0

Other current assets 84,6 77,4 116,6 180,3

Total current assets 1.100,8 494,7 515,8 826,7

Trade receivables – 1,3 0,0 0,0

Investments 1,6 1,5 1,9 0,4

PP&E 1.627,3 2.109,7 2.730,0 3.077,4

Goodw ill 9,5 7,1 7,1 7,1

Intangibles 1,7 1,9 1,9 2,7

Other non-current assets 87,0 113,2 80,6 47,5

Deferred tax assets 4,1 36,7 56,2 100,5

Total non-current assets 1.731,2 2.271,4 2.877,7 3.235,5

Total assets 2.832,0 2.766,1 3.393,5 4.062,3

Liabilities (TL mn) 2012 2013 2014 2015

Financial liabilities 564,3 265,6 439,6 789,0

Trade payables, net 284,7 326,1 431,8 533,2

Due to Related Parties and Shareholders – 10,3 0,0 1,0

Taxation payable on income 6,6 7,5 9,6 6,8

Other payables and accrued liabilities 11,7 14,8 15,8 12,9

Total current liabilities 867,3 624,3 898,3 1.350,1

Long-term financial liabilities 756,4 1.062,7 1.375,8 1.797,7

Retirement pay provision 2,2 3,0 5,2 4,4

Other liabilities – 1,3 0,0 0,0

Deferred tax liability 2,9 3,5 4,8 35,0

Long Term Liabilities 761,5 1.070,5 1.385,8 1.837,0

Paid in capital 615,2 615,2 615,2 615,2

General reserves 121,0 340,3 207,0 245,4

Share premium 247,4 247,4 247,4 247,4

Cash Flow Hedge Reserve – 2,1 1,0 -5,8

Net profit for the year 219,9 -133,3 39,4 -228,4

Shareholder's equity 1.203,2 1.071,3 1.109,4 875,1

Total liabilities and equity 2.832,0 2.766,1 3.393,5 4.062,3

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30

Consolidated statement of cash flows

Source: IFRS financial statements

(TLmn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net income (loss) before tax 84,7 -116,5 226,5 -156,1 26,6 -234,6

Depreciation and amortisation 71,7 92,5 105,3 111,8 121,5 145,2

Other adjustments 14,7 231,2 -53,1 193,9 82,0 314,6

Change in w orking capital 18,64 -20,3 -189,5 7,5 123,6 -186,5

Operating cash flows 189,8 187,0 89,2 157,1 353,8 38,6

Purchased of PP&E -400,9 -330,2 -130,4 -395,7 -676,7 -493,3

Investing cash flows -419,7 -334,6 -116,9 -395,4 -677,1 -493,3

Financing cash flows 291,9 179,5 -41,9 220,0 335,3 468,9

Net cash flows 62,0 31,8 -69,6 -18,2 11,9 14,2

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Appendix

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32

Licence Portfolio (Operational)

Power Plant License Owner Fuel Type Installed Capacity (MW) %

Mardin-1 Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 32

Mardin-2 Rasa Elektrik Fuel-oil 33

Northern Cyprus Aksa Cyprus Fuel-oil 153

İdil (Şırnak) İdil İki Energy Fuel-oil 24

Total Fuel-Oil fired power plants 242 11%

Antalya NGCC Aksa Energy Natural Gas 1.150

Manisa NGCC Aksa Energy Natural Gas 115

Şanlı Urfa Rasa Energy Natural Gas 147

Total Natural Gas fired power plants 1.412 64%

Balıkesir Şamlı Baki Wind 114

Hatay Sebenoba Deniz Wind 60

Manisa Karakurt Deniz Wind 11

Ayvacık Ayres Wind 5

Kapıdağ Kapıdağ Wind 24

Belen / Atik Aksa Wind 18

Kıyıköy Alenka Wind 27

Total Wind power plants 259 12%

Çorum İncesu Aksa Energy Hydro 15

Akköy Siirt Akköy Hydro 13

Total Hydro power plants 28 1%

Bolu Göynük Aksa Göynük Lignite 270

Total Lignite fired power plants 270 12%

Total Power Plants 2.211

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33

Ongoing Investments and Revised Licence Portfolio

Planned acquisition from Kazancı Holding:

Datça 12 MW WPP licence

Construction work is in progress for one HFO and five renewable projects:

33 MW WPP

81 MW HPP

370 MW HFO in Ghana

Power Plant Investment License Owner Fuel Type

Additional Capacity

(MW)

Completion

Year

Datça Licenced Kazancı Holding Wind 12 2016

12

Kapıdağ Extension Kapıdağ Wind 4 2016

Şamlı Extension Baki Wind 13 2017

Kozbükü Greenfield İdil İki Hydro 81 2016

Ayvacık Extension Ayres Wind 4 2017

Manisa Karakurt Extension Deniz Wind 12 2017

Ghana Greenfield Aksa-Ghana HFO 370 2016-2017

484

Total 496

Planned Acquisitions from Kazancı Holding

Under Construction

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Contact- Investor Relations

34

Özlem McCannHead of IR

[email protected]

+90 216 681 1053

Rüzgarlıbahçe Mah. Selvi Çıkmazı No:10 KavacıkBeykoz, Istanbul