investment analysis for diversified natural gas industry

8/10/2019 Investment Analysis for Diversified Natural Gas Industry

1/19

Eaikicg 4;4

Davgrsaeagd Ikturkl

OksAivgstbgit Zrn`gct

Bacmkgl Onghg, Bacmkgl Bkrkik, Iacmnlks Stkrigs, Dkiagl Glzgr

;;/6:/6:;4


2/19

;

Tkflg ne Cnitgits

Davgrsaeagd Ikturkl Oks Aidustry ..................................................................................................................................................6

Nvgrvagw ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Mastnry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Currgit Gvgits ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Euturg Zrn`gctanis ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3

Gickik Cnrpnrktani Kiklysas ........................................................................................................................................................4

Nvgrvagw ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Mastnry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

[uklatktavg Kiklysas ..................................................................................................................................................................... 4

[ukitatktavg Kiklysas ................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Cnbpkiy Dktk ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7

Aitraisac Uklug .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7

Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani Kiklysas ...................................................................................................................................5

Nvgrvagw ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Mastnry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5



Cnbpkiy Dktk ............................................................................................................................................................................. ?

Aitraisac Uklug .............................................................................................................................................................................. =

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani Kiklysas ........................................................................................................................................................=

Nvgrvagw ...................................................................................................................................................................................... =

Mastnry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... =



Cnbpkiy Dktk ........................................................................................................................................................................... ;:

Aitraisac Uklug ............................................................................................................................................................................ ;:

_nrhs Catgd .................................................................................................................................................................................... ;6

Kppgidax ........................................................................................................................................................................................ ;3


3/19

6

Tmg enllnwaio rgpnrt as ki aidustry kiklysas ne tmg ikturkl oks davgrsaeagd aidustry klnio watm kiklysas ne tmrgg stnchs

ai tmg aidustry0 Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani, kid Gickik Cnrpnrktani. Tmg kiklysas as

cnbplgtg watm nur vkluktani ne tmg aitraisac vklug ne tmg stnch fksgd nee kssubptanis gxplkaigd ai tmg kiklysas. Gkcm

kiklysas as cnicludgd watm nur rgcnbbgidktani tn fuy, sgll, nr mnld fksgd nee ne nur aitraisac vkluktani kid tmg

currgit bkrhgt pracg ne tmg stnch.

Davgrsae agd Ikturkl Oks Aidustry

Nvgrvagw

Tmg davgrsaeagd ikturkl oks aidustry as cnbpnsgd ne cnbpkiags tmkt prnducg, bkrhgt, kid trkispnrt ikturkl oks.

Zrnductani rgquargs lkrog kbnuits ne ckpatkl tn kcquarg lkid, wmacm abpgdgs igw gitry enr cnbpgtatani. Cnbpkiags

watm tmg bnst ckpatkl ai tmas aidustry krg kflg tn bkaitkai npgrktanis dgspatg tmg mgety swaios ai gigroy pracgs.

Gcninbac enrcgs ne supply kid dgbkid bkaily keegct tmg ikturkl oks aidustry, ks watm bkiy ntmgr aidustrags. Tmg

aidustrys kfalaty tn ckpturg gcninbags ne scklg hggps tmg stgkdy cksm elnws iggdgd tn cnitaiug drallaio, bkaitgikicg

ne gquapbgit, kid euid kcquasatanis. Ikturkl Oks supply as dravgi fy tmg ginrbnus bkrhgt dgbkid fgckusg at as tmg

bnst geeacagit wky tn prnducg mgkt kid glgctracaty enr mnusgmnlds kid fusaigssgs. Vgoulktnry rash ks wgll ks

ognpnlatackl rash maidgrs tmg aidustrys ckpkfalaty tn prnducg ikturkl oks kt stkflg pracgs kid stgkdy nutput. Ks

ornwaio pnpulktanis dactktg bnrg pgnplg dgbkidaio mgktaio kid glgctracaty, ikturkl oks fgcnbgs k orgktgr pkrt ne

nur gcninbags euturg. _mgi cnisubgrs pky tnn bucm enr gigroy at cki traoogr k rgcgssani, ks sggi ai 6::= kid ai

gvgry rgcgssani saicg tmg Orgkt Dgprgssani gxcgpt ai ;15:. K euidkbgitkl vkluktani tkflg as smnwi fglnw watmrglgvkit aidustry stktastacs.

Mastnry

Ikturkl Oks mks fggi usgd enr tmnuskids ne ygkrs fy cavalazktanis dktaio fkch tn ;::: F.C. ai Orggcg. Tmg ekbnusNrkclg kt Dglpma wks fualt wmgrg ikturkl oks sggpgd ernb tmg ornuid ai k elkbg. Krnuid 7:: F.C. tmg Cmaigsg usgd

fkbfnn papglaigs tn trkispnrt ikturkl oks tmkt sggpgd tn tmg surekcg sn tmgy cnuld fnal sgkwktgr. Gvgry tabg

cavalazktani mks rki nut ne k rgsnurcg, tgcminlnoy bkhgs at ckpkflg tn gxplnrg dggpgr kid ekrtmgr. Tmg pmginbgini ne

oks sggpaio ernb tmg ornuid wks kll tmg kicagits tmnuomt gxastgd. At as gksy tn sgg tmkt tmg nily tmaio tmkt mks

cmkiogd kfnut ikturkl oks as ai tmg dgvglnpbgit. Tndky at as snld tn ogigrktg mnbg mgktaio kid cnnhaio, wktgr

mgktaio kid nvgi rkiogs, bkiuekcturaio kid prncgssaio plkits, kid fnalgrs tn ogigrktg glgctracaty. Ikturkl oks

supplags krnuid 4;% ne gigroy usgd fy W.S. aidustrags, kid at as nig ne tmg clgkigst, skegst, kid bnst usgeul ne kll

gigroy snurcgs. At as tmg watmnut k dnuft tmg clgkigst enssal eugl, kid tmkt as k saoiaeackit rgksni wmy at mks ki

aicrgksaio rnlg ai mglpaio kcmagvg onkls ne k clgkigr givarnibgit. Laqugeagd ikturkl oks as kctuklly tmg bnst geeacagit

ne kll enrbs ne gigroy. At as klsn k hgy enr nur cnuitry tn fgcnbg gigroy aidgpgidgit kid bnrg cnbpgtatavg olnfklly.

Tmas cnbpnigit ne tmg gigroy dascussani plkys nut lkrogly ai tmg rgcgit rgoulktanis ni gbassanis enr cnrpnrktanis,

spgcaeacklly cnkl.

Currgit Gvgits

Erkchaio mks drkbktacklly aicrgksgd ikturkl oks prnductani ne tmg pkst eavg nr sax ygkrs, fut at as int k igw

pmginbgini dgspatg wmkt bkiy pgrcgavg. Erkchaio as k tgcmiaqug usgd tn gxtrkct nal kid oks ernb prgvanusly

aikccgssaflg uidgrornuid smklg enrbktanis. Kltmnuom prnbaigicg mks rasgi, tmg earst mydrkulac erkcturaio gxpgrabgit

wks cniductgd ai Hkisks ai ;14?. At wks int succgsseul fut k pktgit wks orkitgd ai ;141 tn lacgisg tmg tgcmiaqug tn

Mkllafurtni Nal _gll Cgbgitaio Cnbpkiy. Saicg tmgi kfnut 1: pgrcgit ne W.S. wglls mkvg fggi erkchgd. Tmg

Bkrhgt Dktk

Zracg/Fnnh ;.5

Zracg/Gkriaios 67.?

Zracg/Sklgs 6.;

VNG 5.3

Dgft/Gquaty :.7

Npgrktaio Bkroai ;=%

Vgv Ornwtm (3yr Kvo) -;;.=%


4/19

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faoogst bascnicgptani kfnut erkchaio as tmkt givarnibgitklasts wkri kfnut cnitkbaiktani ne nur wktgr supply ernb

cmgbackls. Tmgrg krg in cmgbackls usgd ai erkchaio, ai ekct 11% ne wmkt as pubpgd cnisasts ne skid kid wktgr. Nig

cnbpnigit ne tmg sbkll pgrcgitkog ne erkchaio eluad tmkt as int skid nr wktgr as oukr oub. Tmas prnduct cnbgs ernb

tmg sggds ne tmg oukr plkit kid as usgd tn abprnvg acg crgkb. Ats tabg wg scrgkb, ynu scrgkb, wg kll scrgkb enr

erkchaio.

Eutur g Zrn`gctanis

Ikturkl oks mks fgcnbg k sufstatutg enr cnkl, wmacm mks trkdataniklly fggi tmg cmgkpgst wky fnal wktgr fgenrg tmg

gbassanis rgoulktanis tmkt drnvg up pracgs. At as abpnrtkit tn rgbgbfgr tmg plkcg ne gigroy ai nur gcninby, kid tmkt

as prgcasgly wmy ikturkl oks as fgst pnsatanigd tn nutpgrenrb ntmgr sgctnrs nvgr tmg igxt 6: ygkrs. Tmg W.S. Gigroy

Aienrbktani Kdbaiastrktani (GAK) prnvadgs cnisubptani prn`gctanis enr tmg aidustry fglnw.

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Vgturi

Sglgctgd Cnbpkiags vs SZ] Aidgx

CMH WS Gquaty

SZ] Aidgx

KZK WS Gquaty

GCK WS Gquaty


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Gickik Cnrpnrktani Kiklysas

Nvgrvagw

Gickik Cnrpnrktani as k Ckikdaki cnbpkiy tmkt encusgs ni tmg gxplnrktani kid prnductani ne ikturkl oks kid nal. At

npgrktgs tmrnuom tmrgg daeegrgit sgobgits8 Ckikdaki, Wiatgd Stktgs ne Kbgrack kid Bkrhgt Nptabazktani. Tmg

Bkrhgt Nptabazktani sgobgit aicludgs tmard pkrty trkiskctanis tn prnvadg npgrktani elgxafalaty kid tn bggt custnbgr

davgrsaeacktani. Tmgar 6:;3 prnductani lgvgls ne Ikturkl Oks wmgrg 6,??? BBce/d (Ballanis ne Cufac Eggt pgr Dky)

wmacm wks dnwi 5.=% ernb 6:;6. Tmgar 6:;3 prnductani lgvgl ne Nal kid Ikturkl Oks laquads wks 73.1 Bffls/d

(Tmnuskid Fkrrgls pgr Dky) wmacm wks up ?;% ernb 6:;6.

Mastnry

Gickik Cnrpnrktani wks enrbgd tmrnuom tmg bgrogr ne ZkiCkikdaki Gigroy Cnrpnrktani kid Klfgrtk Gigroy

Cnbpkiy Ltd ai 6::6. Tmg cnbpkiys rnnts gxtgid aitn tmg lktg ;=::s ks nig ne tmg earst kid lkrogst prnducgrs ne

crudg nal kid ikturkl oks ai Ckikdk. Ketgr tmg bgrogr ai 6::6 bkiy ne ats cnrg kssgts wmgrg snld nee tn strgiotmgi tmg

cnbpkiys cnrg cnbpgtgicags. Tmrnuomnut ats lnio mastnry ks bkiy daeegrgit cnbpkiags Gickik mks kbkssgd k

trgbgidnus kbnuit ne lkid ai fntm tmg Wiatgd Stktgs kid Ckikdk tmkt wall fg dgvglnpgd aitn nal kid oks eaglds.

[ukla tktavg Kiklysas

Gickik Cnrpnrktani mks trgbgidnus pntgitakl tn rgbkai k plkygr ai tmg davgrsaeagd nal kid oks aidustry fgckusg ne atstrgbgidnus mnldaios ai uidgvglnpgd lkid watm hinwi nal kid oks rgsgrvgs. Ai Ckikdk klnig Gickik mnlds ?.:

ballani kcrgs ne lkid watm 3.6 ballani kcrgs fgaio uidgvglnpgd. Ai tmg Wiatgd Stktgs Gickik mnlds 6.5 ballani kcrgs

ne lkid watm 6.; ballani fgaio uidgvglnpgd. _atm Gickik fgaio k plkygr ai nily tmg nal kid oks aidustry tmgrg as

saoiaeackit cnicgri enr drnppaio gigroy pracgs. Fut enr tmg enrgsggkflg euturg nal kid oks wall rgbkai k lgkdaio

snurcg ne gigroy kid Gickik mnldaio trgbgidnus kbnuits ne rgsgrvgs crgktgs k pnsatavg nutlnnh enr tmg cnbpkiy.

[ukitatktavg Kiklysas

Tmg enllnwaio aienrbktani as enr Gickiks stnch lastgd ni tmg IQSG int tmg Tnrnitn Stnch Gxcmkiog, enr tmg skhg ne

currgicags trkislktanis. Gickik (GCK WS Gquaty) Cnrpnrktani fgckbg k puflacly trkdgd cnbpkiy ai 6::;. Saicg ats

neegraio at mks slaomtly nutpgrenrbgd tmg S&Z 7:: aidgx. Gickik stnch pracg mks ornwi ;6?% saicg 6::; wmalg tmg

S&Z 7:: mks ornwi ;6;%. Gickik CKOV as 5.7% wmalg tmg S&Z 7:: CKOV as 5.3%. Gickik currgit stnch pracg ks

ne ;;/:4/6:;4 as $;?.?: at mks ki QTD rgturi ne -.6%. Gickik Cnrpnrktanis stnch pracg as strnioly rglktgd watm tmg

pracg Ikturkl Oks. Ketgr ruiiaio ki NLS rgorgssani watm GCK fgaio tmg dgpgidgit vkrakflg kid Ikturkl Oks Zracgs

fgaio tmg rgorgssnr. Tmg rgorgssani prnducgd ki V-squkrg vklug ne .51= wmacm smnws mnw bucm ne tmg vkraktani ai

GCKs stnch pracg as gxplkaigd fy Ikturkl Oks pracgs. _atm tmg V-squkrg vklug fgaio prgtty maom tmas rgorgssani

cnuld fg usgd tn enrgckst GCK stnch pracgs.

GU agws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput GU agws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput


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Cnbpkiy Dktk

Eaikicakl Fksacs GCK (;)

Bkrhgt Zracg $;?.?:

Bkrhgt Ckpatklazktani (BB) $;3,;;7.13

Gitgrprasg Uklug $;5,511.13

Zracg/Gkriaios LTB 73.1xZracg/Fnnh LTB 6.5x

GU/GFATDK LTB ?.1x

GU/Sklgs LTB 3.4x

Davadgid Qagld ;.5%

Vgvgiug LTB (BB) $5,?63.=

GFATDK LTB (BB) $3,75:.:

(;) Ks ne ;;/4/6:;4 Bkrhgt Clnsg

A itra isac Uklug

DCE Ukluktani GCK (;)

_KCC ?.7%

Cnst ne Gquaty 1.44%_gaomt ne Gquaty .?46

FGTK .=7

Gxpgctgd BHT Vgturi (Ckikdk) ;:.?7%

Vash Ergg 6.:3%

Cnst ne Dgft 6.:=%

_gaomt ne Dgft .67=

Zrgtkx Cnst ne Dgft 3.?7%

Tkx Vktg 44.?%

GFATDK Bultaplg 7.3x

(+)ZU ne Euturg CEs (BB) $;5=

(+)ZU ne Tgrbaikl Uklug (BB) $6;,7=1

Abplagd Gitgrprasg Uklug (BB) $6;,?7?

(-)Currgit Igt Dgft (BB) $4,77=Gquaty Uklug (BB) $;?,;11

(/)Smkrgs Nutstkidaio (BB) ?4:.15

Aitraisac Stnch Zracg $63.6;


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3/3;/6::= 3/3;/6:;; 3/3;/6:;4

Vgturi

GCK vs Ikturkl Oks

IOK Cnbdty

GCK WS Gquaty


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Tmg Dascnuitgd Cksm Elnw (DCE) bgtmnd wks cmnsgi enr Gickik Cnrpnrktani fgckusg ne ats gxtrgbgly lnw

davadgid yagld wmacm dadit prnvadg ki kccurktg vkluktani enr tmg cnbpkiy. Fgckusg ne Gickik Cnrpnrktanis maom

CKZG] tmgy krg int kflg tn pky nut maom davadgids tn smkrgmnldgrs. Maom CKZG] as igcgsskry tn prnpgrly bkaitkai

kid ornw sucm k ckpatkl aitgisavg aidustry watm sn bucm uidgvglnpgd rgsgrvgs. Fy lnnhaio kt tmg DCE vkluktani wg

krg kflg tn aicnrpnrktg tmg CKZG] ai tmg ZU ne euturg CEs fut tmgi kflg tn sgg tmkt bnst ne tmg vklug cnbgs ernb

tmg cnbpkiys kfalaty tn crkih nut cksm ernb ats npgrktanis wmacm as smnw fy ats maom GFATDK Bkroai ne 76.1%.

_atm tmas cnbpkiys stnch pracgfgaio sn maomly cnrrglktgd watm Ikturkl Oks pracgs kid tmgrg fgaio sn bucm

dnwiwkrd prgssurg ni Ikturkl Oks euturgs fgckusg ne bkssavg stnch palgs cnbaio nut ne Inrtm Kbgrack, ornwtm

wks rgducgd enr ats rgvgiug strgkb tn cnbg up watm k bnrg rgklastac vkluktani. _atm tmas fgaio skad tmg cnbpkiy wks

kflg tn stall prnducg strnio npgrktaio prneats fgckusg ne ats lnw vkrakflg npgrktaio cnsts.

Fksgd nee tmg aitraisac vklug tmkt wks dgravgd ernb k DCE Ukluktani tmas cnbpkiy as k rgcnbbgidgd FWQ, fgckusg

tmg (Bkrhgt Zracg2$;?.?:) < (Aitraisac Uklug2$63.3;).

Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani

Nvgrvagw

Mgkdqukrtgrgd ai Nhlkmnbk Caty, Nhlkmnbk, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani (tachgr sybfnl0 CMH) npgrktgs aitmrgg bk`nr davasanis0 Bkrhgtaio, Oktmgraio kid Cnbprgssani, Gxplnrktani kid Zrnductani, kid Naleagld Sgrvacgs.

Tmg cnbpkiy dgkls bkaily watm gxplnrktani, dgvglnpbgit, kid kcquasatani ne nismnrg ikturkl oks kid nal rgsgrvnars.

Ikturkl Oks Laquads (IOL) krg klsn k bk`nr pnait ne aitgrgst enr tmg cnbpkiy kid at dgvntgs bkiy ne ats sgrvacgs tn

eaid kid dgvglnp IOL ai tmg WSK. _atm ki kpprnkcmaio 4?,::: ikturkl oks kid nal wglls kadaio ai prnducaio ats 6.?

fallani fkrrgls ne nal rgsgrvgs kid gquavklgits, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani encusgs ats kttgitani tn tmrgg bk`nr

krgks ai Inrtm Kbgrack0 tmg badcnitaigit ne tmg WSK (aicludaio vkranus pkrts ne Tgxks, Nhlkmnbk, kid Hkisks), tmg

Oule Cnkst rgoani, kid tmg Mglbgt krgk ne inrtmgkstgri Fratasm Cnlubfak.

M astnry/[ukla tktavg Kssgssbgit

Ai ;1=1, ketgr tmg WS nal kid ikturkl oks fnnb, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani wks enuidgd fy Kufrgy H.

BcClgidni (enrbgr CGN) kid Tnb L. _krd (enrbgr CNN kid prgsadgit) ai Nhlkmnbki Caty, NH. Tmgar aiatakl

aivgstbgit ai tmg cnbpkiy wks nily $7:,:::.::8 mnwgvgr Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani orgw tn mkvg k prgsgitdky vklug ne igkrly $31 fallani ai kssgts. Tmrnuomnut tmg 1:s, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnnpgrktani skw gxcgllgit

rgturis ni tmgar aivgstbgits ai tmg rgsgkrcm kid kpplacktani ne tgcmiaqugs sucm ks mnraznitkl drallaio kid erkchaio. Ai

tmg gkrly 6:::s tmg cnbpkiy fgoki tn eaid k vgry prneatkflg fklkicg fgtwggi tmgar kcquasatani prn`gcts kid tmgar

prn`gcts watm igw drallaio. Tmas bgkit tmkt tmg lkid tmgy wgrg fuyaio up wnuld fg prgpkrgd kid drallgd ai k tabgly

eksmani ks tn glabaiktg tmg cnst ne nwiaio tmg lkid ks fgaio k igoktavg ekctnr enr tmgar cnbpkiy. _atm tmg aiekicy ne

tmg cnbpkiy fgaio bkrhgd fy mkvaio tn tmaih nutsadg tmg fnx ks tn bggt bkrhgt dgbkid enr ikturkl oks prnducts,

tmg cnbpkiy gvnlvgd sazkflg shalls ai fgaio kdkptkflg, tgcminlnoacklly nragitgd, kid rgsgkrcm encusgd ai tmgar

prgsgit dky stktg. Ks ne 6:;4, Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani as tmg sgcnid lkrogst prnvadgr ne ikturkl oks ai tmg

Wiatgd Stktgs.

[ukitatktavg KssgssbgitCmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani mks fggi sggaio k stgkdy rasg ai ats pracg pgr smkrg ernb ats rgcgit lnw pnait ne

$;?.41, wmacm wks sggi ni Nctnfgr ;4, 6:;4, tn k currgit vklug ne $66.1:. Ai 6:;4, tmg bkrhgt vklug pgr smkrg wks

rgkcmgd k maom $61.5; ai tmg baddlg ne tmg subbgr, wmacm as spgculktgd, fy ykmnn eaikicg, tn fg dug tn k rgsult ne

tmg maomgr pracg enr WS ikturkl oks duraio tmas pgrand enr 6:;4. Tmg pracg tn sklgs rktan enr tmg cnbpkiy as sggi kt

:.?7, wmacm as onnd saicg at as fglnw ;.:, aidacktaio ki nppnrtuiaty saicg tmg prneat bkroai enr tmg cnbpkiy as

;;.5;%. Ki adgkl satuktani enr kiy aivgstnr wnuld fg tn mkvg k cnbpkiy watm k rglktavgly lkrogr prneat bkroai kid k

sbkll pracg tn sklgs rktan (prgegrkfly fglnw ;.:)8 mnwgvgr tmg ;;.5;% prneat bkroai sggi mgrg as fy in bgkis fkd enr

tmg cnbpkiy. Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani mks sggi k stgkdy aicrgksg ai ats prneat bkroai duraio tmas pkst ygkr


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kid sn watm prnbasgs ne k maomgr bkroai tn cnbg, dgspatg tmg currgit dgcrgksg ai tmg pracg ne ikturkl oks ai tmg WS,

tmg cnbpkiy sggbs tn fg dnaio wgll. Tmg bkrhgt ckpatklazktani enr Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy Cnrpnrktani as $;5.:1 fallani

aidacktaio ats abbkturg stktus ks k cnbpkiy, fgaio nily 67 ygkrs nld. Dgspatg tmg dgcrgksg ai ekllaio gigroy pracgs,

tmg cnbpkiy sggbs tn mkvg mgdogd kokaist tmas tmrgkt kid gvgi aicrgksgd igt prneats ai tmg tmard qukrtgr tn fg kt $;51

ballani tmas ygkr, ks rgpnrtgd ni Qkmnn Eaikicg. Tmas as ki =% aicrgksg ernb tmg prgvanus ygkr. Cmgskpgkhg Gigroy

mks ki V-squkrg vklug ne .33 ernb ki NLS rgorgssani watm CMH fgaio tmg dgpgidgit vkrakflg kid Ikturkl Oks fgaio

tmg rgorgssnr wmacm as rglktavgly maom wmgi cnbpkrgd tn ats V-squkrg vklug watm tmg S&Z 7:: fgaio tmg rgorgssnr.

Tmas smnws tmkt Ikturkl Oks pracgs krg k onnd prgdactnr ne CMHs stnch pracg.

GU agws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput GU agws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput

Cnbpkiy Dktk

Eaikicakl Fksacs CMH (;)

Bkrhgt Zracg $66.1:

Bkrhgt Ckpatklazktani (BB) $;7,63;

Gitgrprasg Uklug (BB) $3;,;:5

Zracg/Gkriaios LTB 6;.=xZracg/Fnnh LTB ;.4x

GU/GFATDK LTB 7.3x

GU/Sklgs LTB ;.7x

Davadgid Qagld ;.7%

Vgvgiug LTB (BB) $6:,446

GFATDK LTB (BB) $7,==6

(;) Ks ne ;;/;:/6:;4 Bkrhgt Clnsg

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6/6:/:= 6/6:/:1 6/6:/;: 6/6:/;; 6/6:/;6 6/6:/;3 6/6:/;4V

gturi

CMH vs Ikturkl Oks

IOK Cnbdty

CMH WS Gquaty


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=

A itra isac Uklug

DCE Ukluktani CMH (;)

_KCC 5.1%

Cnst ne Gquaty ;:.?5%

_gaomt ne Gquaty .7;:

FGTK ;.;1

Gxpgctgd BHT Vgturi 1.44%Vash Ergg 6.34%

Cnst ne Dgft 6.6;%

_gaomt ne Dgft .3==

Cnst ne Zrgegrrgd Gquaty 7.5%

_gaomt ne Zrgegrrgd Gquaty .;:6

GFATDK Bultaplg 7.3x

(+)ZU ne Euturg CEs (BB) $1,373

(+)ZU ne Tgrbaikl Uklug (BB) $65,7=6

Abplagd Gitgrprasg Uklug (BB) $37,137

(-)Currgit Igt Dgft & Zrge Gquaty (BB) $;?,675

Gquaty Uklug (BB) $;=,5=:

(/)Smkrgs Nutstkidaio (BB) 557

Aitraisac Stnch Zracg $6=.:=(;) Ks ne ;;/;:/6:;4 Bkrhgt Clnsg

Tmg bgtmnd cmnsgi tn cnbputg aitraisac vklug ne tmg smkrgs wks tmg Dascnuitgd Cksm Elnws Bgtmnd. Tmas bgtmnd

wks cmnsgi fgckusg ne tmg maom D&K gxpgisgs kid CKZG] gxpgidaturgs enr sucm k ckpatkl aitgisavg cnbpkiy, tmas

bgtmnd lgkd tn k bnrg rgklastac vkluktani fgckusg ne tkhaio CKZG] kid D&K gxpgisgs aitn kccnuit. Fgckusg tmas

stnch as maomly rglktgd tn tmg pracg ne Ikturkl Oks kid tmgrg as gxpgctgd dnwiwkrd prgssurg ni Ikturkl Oks pracgs ai

tmg euturg, fgckusg ne maom stnch palgs, tmus crgktaio lnw rgvgiug ornwtm enr tmg igxt 7 pgrands. _atm tmas fgaio skad

at stall prnducgd k maom vkluktani fgckusg tmg cnbpkiys kfalaty tn hggp mastnrackl vkrakflg gxpgisgs lnw.

Fksgd nee tmg aitraisac vklug tmkt wks dgravgd ernb k DCE Ukluktani tmas cnbpkiy as k rgcnbbgidgd FWQ, fgckusg

tmg (Bkrhgt Zracg2$66.1:) < (Aitraisac Uklug2$6=.:=).

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani (IQSG0 KZK)

Nvgrvagw

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani as ki aidgpgidgit gigroy cnbpkiy fksgd nut ne tmg Wiatgd Stktgs ne Kbgrack tmkt encusgs ni

gxplnatktani kid prnductani ne ikturkl oks, crudg nal, kid ikturkl oks laquads. Tmg cnbpkiy npgrktgs ai bkiy pkrts ne

tmg wnrld, wmacm aicludgs0 Kustrklak, Ckikdk, Goypt, Wiatgd Haiodnb Inrtm Sgk, Wiatgd Stktgs ne Kbgrack, kid

Krogitaik. Kpkcmgs bassani stktgbgit as0 As tn ornw k prneatkflg olnfkl gxplnatktani kid gigroy prnductani cnbpkiy

ai k skeg kid givarnibgitklly eragidly bkiigr tmkt wall fgigeat tmg smkrgmnldgrs ai tmg lnio rui. Ai ;1?:, tmg

cnbpkiy cmkiogd ats ikbg tn Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani tn rgsgbflg tmg ekct tmkt tmg cnbpkiy as bnvgd tnwkrd

davgrsaeacktani. Ai 6:;3, tmg cnbpkiy prnducgd 345,5;? f/d (Fkrrgls pgr Dky) ne nal, wmacm as k QnQ dgcrgksg ne

.1=%. Ai 6:;3, tmg cnbpkiy prnducgd 6,:1?,:== Bce/d (Tmnuskid Cufac Eggt pgr Dky) ne ikturkl oks, wmacm as k

QnQ dgcrgksg ne .1;%. Ai 6:;3, tmg cnbpkiy prnducgd, 54,543 f/d ne ikturkl oks laquads, wmacm wks k QnQ

aicrgksg ne ;.45%.

Mastnry

Kpkcmg wks enuidgd ai ;174. Tmg enuidgrs wgrg Trubki Kidgrsni, Vkybnid Zlkih, Cmkrlgs Krikn, kid 4;

smkrgmnldgrs wmn aivgstgd k tntkl kbnuit ne $67:,::: aiatakl gquaty. Tmg cnbpkiys ikbg wks crgktgd fy tmg

aisparktani ne tmg tmrgg enuidgrs aiatakls, KZK. Tmg rgst ne tmg ikbg wks bkdg up tn enrb Kpkcmg. Tmg


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cnbpkiys mgkdqukrtgrs wgrg nraoaiklly lncktgd ai Baiigkpnlas, Baiigsntk kid bnvgd tn Mnustni, Tgxks ai ;11;.

Vgksniaio enr bnvaio tmg cnbpkiys mgkdqukrtgrs tn Mnustni, Tgxks wks fgckusg tmg cnbpkiy kcquargd tmg

Zgrbaki Fksai ai wgstgri Tgxks kid pkrts ne Igw Bgxacn, wmacm as nig ne tmg wnrlds lkrogst nal prnvaicgs.

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani fualt ntmgr cnbpkiags watmai tmgar nwi cnbpkiy tn encus ni spgcaeac krgks ne tmg fusaigss.

Kpkcmg wks klsn enrbgd fy bgroaio watm ntmgr cnbpkiags ai tmg pkst cnuplg ne dgckdgs. Kpkcmg earst enrbgd tmg

cnbpkiy Kpgxcn ai ;1?;, wmacm wks ki nal kid oks npgrktani cnbpkiy tmkt tmgy lktgr snld ai ;1?? tn rgaivgst ai

OMHs Inrtm Flnch. Saicg tmgi, tmg cnrpnrktani mks bgrogd watm bkiy cnbpkiags wmacm mkvg mglpgd tmgb kcquarg

k trgbgidnus kbnuit ne lkid ai kll pkrts ne tmg wnrld. Ai rgcgit ygkrs tmgy mkvg bgrogd watm Bkraigr Gigroy,

kcquaraio kssgts ai Dggp-_ktgr Oule ne Bgxacn kid tmg Zgrbaki Fksai.

[ukla tktavg Kiklysas

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani as nig ne tmg wnrld lkrogst cnbpkiags ai tmg davgrsaeagd ikturkl oks kid nal aidustry. Mnldaio

nvgr 6? ballani ornss kcrgs ne lkid watm nily kpprnxabktgly mkle ne tmg lkid dgvglnpgd, tmg cnbpkiy stall mks bkiy

kcrgs ne rgsgrvgd ikturkl oks kid nal. Kpkcmg mks rgcgitly stkrtgd drallaio enr nal ai Kustrklak mnldaio ?.1 ornss kcrgs

ne lkid watm =1% ne wmacm as uidgvglnpgd. Ai Ckikdk, Kpkcmg mnlds tmgar sbkllgst kbnuit ne lkid kt 566,5:: ornss

kcrgs watm kll ne tmg lkid fgaio dgvglnpgd. Ai Goypt tmgy mnld 1.= ballani ornss kcrgs ne lkid, watm tmg 3 ballani

ornss kcrgs gxparaio ai @kiukry 6:;4, at stall lget Kpkcmg watm ?6% ne uidgvglnpgd lkid. Ai tmg Wiatgd Haiodnb

Inrtm Sgk, tmgy mnld kpprnxabktgly ;.6 ballani ornss kcrgs ai tmg Enrtags Eagld kid Kpkcmg npgrktg 1?% ne tmg wnrhcnbaio ernb tmg krgk. Tmg Wiatgs Stktgs ne Kbgrack as wmgrg Kpkcmg mnlds tmgar vkst bk`nraty ne lkid kt ;;.7

ballani ornss kcrgs. _atm Kpkcmg fgaio ki Kbgracki cnbpkiy, tmgy usgd kll ne tmgar ;;.7 ballani ornss kcrgs pullaio

bnst ne tmgar kssgts raomt mgrg kt mnbg. At bky fg k cnicgri tmkt tmg gigroy pracgs krg drnppaio, fut Kpkcmg as

mnldaio k trgbgidnus kbnuit ne uidgvglnpgd lkid ai Kustrklak tmkt wall prnducgs rgsgrvgs enr snbg tabg tn cnbg.

[ukitatktavg Kiklysas

Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani fgckbg k puflacly trkdgd cnbpkiy ni tmg IQSG ai ;151 uidgr tmg tachgr KZK. Saicg tmg earst

neegraio, tmg cnbpkiy mks pgrenrbgd gxtrgbgly wgll up uital tmg gid ne tmg Eaikicakl Crasas. Nvgr tmg pkst 7 ygkrs

tmg stnch pracg enr Kpkcmg mks ekllgi saoiaeackitly dug tn tmg pracgs ne ikturkl oks kid nal dgcrgksaio. Kpkcmg mks

bkdg k onkl tn davgst $4 fallani ai kssgts fy tmg gid ne tmg ygkr 6:;3 tn usg $6 fallani ai k 3: ballani smkrg

rgpurcmksg prnorkb. Tmg smkrg rgpurcmksg prnorkb as tn mglp tmg cnbpkiy rgducg dgft kid gimkicg eaikicakl

elgxafalaty. Ks smnwi fglnw tmas cnbpkiys stnch pracg kid Ikturkl Oks pracgs dnit smnw tmkt strnio ne k

rglktanismap, V-squkrg vklug ne .;65. Tmg ntmgr twn stnchs mkvg k bucm strnio rglktanismap ks smnw fy tmgar maom V-

squkrg vklugs. _atm tmas fgaio skad tmas cnbpkiy mks dnig k onnd `nf kt mgdoaio ats rash tn Ikturkl Oks eluctuktanis.

GUa gws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput GU agws NLS Vgorgssani Nutput


11/19

;:

Cnbpkiy Dktk

Eaikicakl Fksacs KZK (;)

Bkrhgt Zracg $?7.;:

Bkrhgt Ckpatklazktani (BB) $6=,6?3

Gitgrprasg Uklug $4:,=74

Zracg/Gkriaios LTB ;3.;x

Zracg/Fnnh LTB ;.:x

GU/GFATDK LTB 4.=x

GU/Sklgs LTB 3.4x

Davadgid Qagld ;.3%

Vgvgiug LTB (BB) $;4,;?4

GFATDK LTB (BB) $;:,:64

(;) Ks ne ;;/;:/6:;4 Bkrhgt Clnsg

A itraisac UklugDCE Ukluktani KZK (;)

_KCC =.6%

Cnst ne Gquaty ;:.4%

_gaomt ne Gquaty .?54

FGTK ;.;3

Gxpgctgd BHT Vgturi 1.44%

Vash Ergg 6.36%

Cnst ne Dgft ;.3=5%

_gaomt ne Dgft .635

Zrgtkx Cnst ne Dgft 6.3;%

Tkx Vktg 4:%

GFATDK Bultaplg 4.=x

(+)ZU ne Euturg CEs (BB) $;,;?5(+)ZU ne Tgrbaikl Uklug (BB) $3=,;:3

Abplagd Gitgrprasg Uklug (BB) $31,6?1

(-)Currgit Igt Dgft (BB) $;:,=;5

Gquaty Uklug (BB) $6=,453

(/)Smkrgs Nutstkidaio (BB) 3?5

Aitraisac Stnch Zracg $?7.5:


-=:%

-5:%

-4:%

-6:%

:%

6:%

4:%

5:%

6/6:/:= 6/6:/:1 6/6:/;: 6/6:/;; 6/6:/;6 6/6:/;3 6/6:/;4Vgturi

KZK vs Ikturkl Oks

IOK Cnbdty

KZK WS Gquaty


12/19

;;

Tn cnbputg tmg aitraisac vklug enr Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani tmg dascnuitgd cksm elnw bgtmnd wks cmnsgi,

fgckusg lahg tmg ntmgr cnbpkiags tmas as ki gxtrgbgly ckpatkl aitgisavg aidustry kid tn prnpgrly vklug tmas

cnbpkiy CKZG] kid D&K krg twn vgry abpnrtkit laig atgbs tn tkhg aitn kccnuit. Fgckusg Kpkcmg

Cnrpnrktani mks dnig k onnd `nf kt mgdoaio ats rash ne Ikturkl Oks pracg eluctuktanis, tmg rgvgiug ornwtm

enr tmas cnbpkiy wks bucm maomgr tmki tmg prgvanus twn cnbpkiags. Bucm ne Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktanis

vklug wks dgravgd ernb ats tgrbaikl vklug fgckusg tmgy krg gxpgctgd tn aivgst mgkvaly ai CKZG] nvgr tmgigxt cnuplg ne pgrands tn cnitaiug cnivgrtaio uidgvglnpgd lkid aitn wnrhaio oks eaglds. At kppgkrs tmkt

tmg bkrhgt mks dnig k onnd `nf kt rgcnoiazaio tmgsg cmkrkctgrastacs ai Kpkcmg fgckusg ats aitraisac vklug as

klbnst gqukl tn tmkt ne tmg bkrhgt pracg.

Fksgd nee tmg aitraisac vklug tmkt wks dgravgd ernb k DCE Ukluktani tmas cnbpkiy as k rgcnbbgidgd MNLD,

fgckusg tmg (Bkrhgt Zracg2$?7.;:)(Aitraisac Uklug2$?7.5:).


13/19

;6

_nrhs Catgd

"Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani0 IQSG0KZK [untgs & Igws - Onnolg Eaikicg." Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani0

IQSG0KZK [untgs & Igws - Onnolg Eaikicg. Onnolg, 6:;4. _gf. ;: Inv. 6:;4.

cad2;5;?9 .

"Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani." Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani0 Mnbg. Kpkcmg Cnrpnrktani, 6:;4. _gf. ;; Inv.

6:;4.


14/19

;3

Kppgidax

GCK DCE Ukluktani


15/19

;4


16/19

;7

CMH DCE Ukluktani


17/19

;5


18/19

;?

KZK DCE Ukluktani


19/19

;=

investment analysis for diversified natural gas industry

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