asx investment video, asx australian securities exchange ...€¦ · the micro cap fund is a...

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Disclaimer Contango Asset Management Limited (ABN 52 085 487 421) holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL #237119) restricting it to providing financial products and services to wholesale clients only. This presentation has been prepared for the consideration and use of ‘wholesale’ investors, as defined by the Corporations Act (Cwlth 2001), and may contain information that assumes a level of knowledge and expertise particular to such investors. If you do not meet the criteria of a wholesale investor, you should disregard this information and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor. Forecasts in this presentation are predictive in character, based on numerous assumptions including the forecast outlook for key variables and may be affected by various factors including inaccurate assumptions, risks and unforeseen events. Accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those forecasted. Contango Asset Management Limited (“CAML”), its officers, employees and agents believe that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation but do not warrant the accuracy of that information. Performance information is historical. Performance returns may vary. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance has been calculated based on cumulative daily returns excluding any allowance for fees, expenses and taxes. Save for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, CAML disclaims all responsibility for any loss or damage which any person may suffer from reliance on this information or any opinion, forecast, conclusion or recommendation in this document whether the loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence on the part of CAML or otherwise. 1

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Page 1: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Disclaimer

Contango Asset Management Limited (ABN 52 085 487 421) holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL #237119) restricting it to providing financial products and services to wholesale clients only.This presentation has been prepared for the consideration and use of ‘wholesale’ investors, as defined by the Corporations Act (Cwlth 2001), and may contain information that assumes a level of knowledge and expertise particular to such investors. If you do not meet the criteria of a wholesale investor, you should disregard this information and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor.Forecasts in this presentation are predictive in character, based on numerous assumptions including the forecast outlook for key variables and may be affected by various factors including inaccurate assumptions, risks and unforeseen events. Accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those forecasted. Contango Asset Management Limited (“CAML”), its officers, employees and agents believe that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation but do not warrant the accuracy of that information. Performance information is historical. Performance returns may vary. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance has been calculated based on cumulative daily returns excluding any allowance for fees, expenses and taxes.Save for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, CAML disclaims all responsibility for any loss or damage which any person may suffer from reliance on this information or any opinion, forecast, conclusion or recommendation in this document whether the loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence on the part of CAML or otherwise.

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Page 2: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Contents

1. Overview of Contango Asset Management2. Macro outlook – challenges persist3. Are current market valuations attractive?4. What are the implications for your portfolio?

• Large Cap (GARP) Portfolio• Mid Cap (ex30) Income Portfolio• Mic Cap Portfolio

5. Summary

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Page 3: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

1. Overview of Contango Asset Management

Page 4: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

• Established in 1998 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Contango MicroCap Limited (CTN)

• Experienced and successful wholesale fund manager with a large investment team

• Also manage two Listed Investment Companies on the ASX

• Proven track record in managing funds across all segments of the Australian market

• Well known and rated by both wholesale and retail consultants

Contango Asset Management Limited is a boutique Australian fund manager

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Contango Asset Management has a streamlined ownership structure

Contango MicroCap Ltd (CTN)

Contango Asset Management Limited 100%

Contango Income Generator Ltd (CIE)

Page 5: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Economics is key to determining intrinsic value in the equity market

• Intrinsic value is an estimate of ‘fundamental value’ without reference to current ‘market value’

• Intrinsic and market valuations can diverge−Market is not always efficient−Different estimation theories, assumptions and data sources−Cyclical vs structural changes

• Understanding and forecasting economic conditions is key to estimating intrinsic value− Economic growth drives company revenue and earnings growth − Growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates all important− Interest rates also determine discount rate for future cash flows

Page 6: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Our investment philosophy is based on three basic principles

1. Economic conditions drive earnings and valuations

2. Stocks and sectors perform differently at each stage of the economic cycle

3. These relationships can be exploited in a systematic way to add value to investment portfolios

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EPS

PE

Page 7: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Australian cash rates over the long run. Stable and consistent monetary policy signals helps drive economic growth

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Page 8: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Local equity valuations around long run historical benchmark. Earnings outlook revised lower for FY16

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Page 9: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Global equity valuations trading below long run historical benchmark

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Page 10: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Lower cash rates leads to greater demand for dividends

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Page 11: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Demographic outlook is a significant policy challenge

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Page 12: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Equity market attractive vs fixed income

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Page 13: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Lower long bond rates is supportive for equity valuations

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Page 14: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Interest rates to remain low supporting growth and equity markets

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• Global growth modest and uneven with limited price pressure− Developed Markets improving but Emerging Markets soft

• Underlying US growth improving, employment growth reasonable− Consistent with FOMC delaying rate rises − Global economy remains fragile combined with rising USD and lack of inflation

• Growth in Europe recovering but tail-risks re-emerge− ECB’s QE on going

• Growth in China is moderating as economy rebalances− Government stabilising transition but risk of policy errors increasing− Commodity prices to remain under pressure

• Domestic economy not transitioning as quickly as RBA would like− Continued low rates and lower AUD

Page 15: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

We group stocks by macro relationships to add alpha at the super sector level

1.0

3.2

-6.8

-1.4

-1.3

-0.5

2.3

3.5

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

[Cash]

[Futures]

Global Cyclicals

Domestic Cyclicals

Interest Rate Sensitives

Gold

Defensives

Market Leverage

Contango Large Cap Fund: SS Active Weight vs ASX300

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Page 16: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Strategy enables us to take high conviction positions at the industry level

Heavily Moderately Slightly Neutral Slightly Moderately HeavilyUnderweight Underweight Underweight Overweight Overweight Overweight

Global Cyclical MaterialsOil

CoalGold

Iron OreCopper

NickelAluminium

SteelSpeciality (lithium, graphite)

UraniumMineral sands

Domestic CyclicalsCapital Goods

Non-Res ConstructionBuilding materials

RetailingMedia

ITCommercial Services

Market leverageDiv Fin

DefensivesStaples

HealthcareGeneral InsuranceConsumer services

Interest Rate SensitiveBanksREITs

UtilitiesInfrastructure

Telcos16

Page 17: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Large Cap (GARP*) Fund is a diversified portfolio of large cap growth stocks

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Offers a diversified exposure to the Australian equity market and a higher expected return than investments in cash or fixed income

Actively managed portfolio of Australian listed shares on the S&P/ASX 300 Index• Target return of the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index plus 2%• Tracking error of 1.5% - 4%• Broad composition of 25 - 40 stocks

Business cycle process• Combines a systematic top-down and bottom-up analysis

Fund facts• Size is $152 million• Inception is April 1999

Page 18: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Large Cap (GARP) Fund’s performance has been strong since inception

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Consistent alpha generation in different market conditions

September 2015 Large Cap Fund

ASX 300 Accumulation Added Value

3 Months -6.0% -6.5% 0.4%

6 Months -13.1% -12.5% -0.5%

1 Year 1.4% -0.7% 2.1%

3 Years pa 10.6% 9.1% 1.5%

Since inception (April 1999) pa 8.8% 7.4% 1.4%

Page 19: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Large Cap (GARP) stock positions consistent with defensive strategy view

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*Stock not held. September 2015.

Code Stock Over%

ANZ ANZ Banking Group Limited 3.0

OSH Oil Search Limited 2.4

BOQ Bank of Queensland Limited 2.3

CSL CSL Limited 2.0

GMG Goodman Group 2.0

SUN Suncorp Group Limited 1.8

JHX James Hardie Industries PLC 1.8

BXB Brambles Ltd 1.8

SHL Sonic Healthcare Limited 1.7

CGF Challenger Limited 1.7

Code Stock Under%

BHP BHP Billiton Limited -2.2

NAB National Australia Bank Limited -1.9

WBC Westpac Banking Corporation -1.9

SCG* Scentre Group -1.6

RIO* Rio Tinto Limited -1.6

WPL* Woodside Petroleum Ltd -1.5

WFD* Westfield Corporation -1.4

TCL* Transurban Group Ltd. -1.4

QBE* QBE Insurance Group Limited -1.3

WES Wesfarmers Limited -1.3

Page 20: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

September 2015

Large Cap (GARP) portfolio employing and actively managing risk

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Page 21: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Large Cap (GARP) active risk positions are consistent with the fund’s objectives

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September 2015 ContangoLarge Cap

ASX 300Accum Index

Price to Earnings Ratio 13.4 14.1

Dividend Yield (net) 5.1 5.3

Dividend Yield (gross) 6.6 6.9

EPS Growth (%) 8.3 2.4

Return on Equity (%) 16.5 15.1

Beta 1.03 1.00

Tracking Error* 1.93 -

Source: Factset (next twelve months)* Ex ante. Bloomberg.

Page 22: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

The Income Generator Fund’s active risk positions are consistent with the fund’s objectives

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Source: Contango AM, 12 month forward consensus forecast, Factset

September 2015Contango

Income Generator

All Ordinaries

ASX300top-30

ASX300ex-30

Median market cap ($m) 1,438 397 18,312 636

Price to earnings ratio 13.7 14.1 14.0 14.4

Earnings growth 5.4 3.9 0.1 8.9

Dividend yield (net) 6.0 5.1 5.7 4.3

Dividend yield (gross) 7.9 6.7 7.6 5.3

Return on equity 16.0 15.1 15.4 14.4

Beta to ASX300 0.84 0.95 1.04 0.91

Page 23: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

The Income Generator Fund’s performance has been less volatile than the market

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Monthly Returns: Contango Income Generator vs All Ordinaries

Source: Contango AM, Iress, gross of fees, September 2015

Page 24: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

The Small Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of small cap stocks

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Offers a diversified exposure to ASX listed small companies and a higher expected return than the Large Cap (GARP) FundActively managed portfolio of Australian listed shares outside of the ASX 100• Target return of the S&P/ASX Small Ords Accumulation Index plus 3%• Tracking error of 4% - 10%• Broad composition of 30 - 60 stocksBusiness cycle process• Combines top-down and bottom-up analysisFund facts• Size is $160 million• Inception is Feb 2005• Max cash is 25%

Page 25: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

The Small Cap Fund’s performance has been strong since inception

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Gross performance

September 2015 Small Cap Fund

ASX Small Ords

AccumulationAdded Value

3 Months 1.0% -3.9% 4.9%

6 Months -4.2% -7.8% 3.6%

1 Year 1.6% -4.9% 6.5%

3 Years pa 5.5% -1.2% 6.8%

Since inception (Feb 2005) pa 8.6% 1.7% 6.9%

Consistent alpha generation in different market conditions

Page 26: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Small Cap Fund’s September quarter sector attribution

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Sector Weight Added Value

Energy -2.9% 1.6%Materials -2.1% 0.7%Industrials -1.5% 2.4%Consumer Discretionary 1.3% 0.1%Consumer Staples -3.7% -0.4%Health 0.8% 0.4%Financials 5.7% 0.3%Information Technology 0.0% -0.6%Telcos 0.9% 0.3%Utilities -0.7% 0.1%Cash & Futures 1.9% 0.0%Total 4.9%

September 2015. Attribution updated quarterly.

Page 27: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Small Cap Fund’s stock positions are consistent with Strategy view

27*Stock not held. September 2015.

Code Stock Over%

GUD G.U.D. Holdings Limited 2.8

CHC Charter Hall Group 2.7

PGH Pact Group Holdings Ltd. 2.6

VOC Vocus Communications Limited 2.5

BAP Burson Group Ltd 2.5

SCP Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE Ltd. 2.5

MYX Mayne Pharma Group Limited 2.4

VED Veda Group Limited 2.4

MVF Monash IVF Group Ltd 2.3

SGF SG Fleet Group Ltd. 2.3

Code Stock Under%

BKL* Blackmores Limited -1.6

MTU* M2 Group Ltd -1.5

NST* Northern Star Resources Ltd -1.4

BWP* BWP Trust -1.3

NUF* Nufarm Limited -1.3

PTM* Platinum Asset Management Ltd -1.3

NHF* NIB Holdings Ltd -1.3

FBU* Fletcher Building Limited -1.1

CMW* Cromwell Property Group -1.1

SUL* Super Retail Group Limited -1.1

Page 28: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Small Cap Fund is employing & actively managing risk

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September 2015

Page 29: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Small Cap Fund’s active risk positions are consistent with the funds objectives

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Source: Factset (next twelve months)* Ex ante. Bloomberg.

September 2015 ContangoSmall Cap

ASX Small Ords Index

Price to Earnings Ratio 14.0 13.3

Dividend Yield (net) 4.4 4.5

Dividend Yield (gross) 5.4 5.6

EPS Growth (%) 16.3 9.7

Return on Equity (%) 17.7 14.9

Beta 0.91 1.00

Tracking Error* 4.04 -

Page 30: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

4.4 The Contango AM Micro Cap Fund

Page 31: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks

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Offers a diversified exposure to ASX listed micro cap companies and a higher expected return than the Large Cap (GARP) FundActively managed portfolio of Australian listed shares with a market capitalisation of between $30-$350 million• Target return of the S&P/ASX Small Ords Accumulation Index plus 3%• Tracking error of 5% - 12%• Broad composition of 50 - 100 stocksBusiness cycle process• Combines top-down and bottom-up analysisFund facts• Total Micro Cap mandate size $280 million• Inception March 2004• Max cash is 25% wholesale / 50% LIC

Page 32: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Micro Cap Fund’s September quarter sector attribution

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Sector Weight Added Value

Energy -2.5% 1.5%Materials -5.7% 0.5%Industrials -3.1% 1.0%Consumer Discretionary -0.1% -0.6%Consumer Staples -2.1% -0.2%Health -2.4% -1.0%Financials -2.8% 1.6%Information Technology 11.4% -0.3%Telcos -4.2% -0.1%Utilities 0.9% 0.2%Cash & Futures 10.7% 0.1%Total 2.7%

September 2015. Attribution updated quarterly.

Page 33: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

High tech company• Monitoring devices, infrared sensors,

license plate readers, parking meters

Attractive market offering• Cost savings and higher accuracy in

processing infringements• Payback period of only 15 weeks

Successful trial in Westminster (UK) • Potential for 10,000 parking bays

Metrics• Market cap $36.5m• Sales growth 40% FY16• Price target $0.29 (107% TSR)

High tech company• Global leader in sports analytics technology• AUS, US and European sports teams• Every AFL, NRL and Super Rugby Team

Strong business model• Owns all the data produced and continually

improves analytics• Large upside via potential use in

broadcasts

Metrics• Market cap $180.2m• Sales growth 45% FY16 • Price target $2.00 (38% TSR)

Smart Parking (SPZ)

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Catapult Group (CAT)

Page 34: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Micro Cap Fund’s active risk positions are consistent with the funds objectives

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Source: Factset (next twelve months)* Ex ante. Bloomberg.

September 2015 ContangoMicro Cap

ASX Small Ords Index

Price to Earnings Ratio 11.5 13.3

Dividend Yield (net) 4.7 4.5

Dividend Yield (gross) 5.9 5.6

EPS Growth (%) 18.8 9.7

Return on Equity (%) 46.0 14.9

Beta 0.77 1.00

Tracking Error* 6.3 -

Page 35: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

5. Summary

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Page 36: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

“Do you know the only things that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in” John D Rockefeller

• Understanding and forecasting economic conditions is relevant for portfolio construction

• Commodity outlook remains subdued

• Domestically the re rating continues. Corporate Australia adjusting. Recent reporting season confirms challenges for future earnings

• RBA cash rates and the AUD need to stay low to drive earnings higher

• Demographic structural drivers imply the search for yield will intensify

• Volatility is a part of investing. Always remain alert but never alarmed

Investing is easy but not simple

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Page 37: ASX Investment video, ASX Australian Securities Exchange ...€¦ · The Micro Cap Fund is a diversified portfolio of emerging company micro cap stocks . 31. Offers a diversified

Contact details

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George BoubourasChief Investment Officer Contango Asset Management LimitedTel: +61 (3) 9222 2324Mobile: +61 (0) 414 614 225E-mail: [email protected]