inventory profile modeling techniquean electronics supply...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Inventory Profile ModelingInventory Profile Modeling Technique—An Electronics Supply Chain Success Story
D i l H i
1
Daniel Hui Senior Manager, Global SCM Operations
Celestica Inc.
Daniel Hui, CPIM, CSCP, P.Eng., B.Sc.(Eng), MBA
Senior Manager, Global SCM Operations, Celestica Inc.
d ( )APICS Recognized Instructor, CPIM (Master)APICS Toronto Chapter Board Member 1995‐2003, VP Education 1999‐200130+ years experience with Fortune Global 500 companies, in Manufacturing, SCM, Operations, Logistics, Strategic Management
2
p , g , g g
2
Agenda• Introduction • Complete Transformation of the Supply Chain p pp y‐ Project Firefox
• Inventory Profile Modeling Technique • Concepts and approaches• Demo: building an inventory profile model
3
g y p• Lessons learned
Celestica: Who we are• Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) Industry• Dedicated to building solid partnerships and providing flexible solutions to
enable our customers’ success• Our customers are primarily Tier 1 OEM Companies• Through our strategic global footprint, Celestica provides customers with
end‐to‐end supply chain solutions
4
3
Challenges of the electronics supply chain
• Short product life cycles• Volatility in demand and supply• Frequent engineering changes (high obsolescence risks)
• Falling commodity prices (high obsolescence costs)
l b l b l ( d d l d )
5
• Supply base globalization (extended lead time)
Complete SCM TransformationProject FireFox
• In 2006, our senior leadership team commissioned Project FireFox to– Re‐design and transform the SCM organization– Change the culture– Deliver breakthrough operational and financial results
– Improve processes and strategic business systems
6
p p g yarchitecture
4
Our Results• Inventory Turn Performance:
– Produced a milestone historical 9.7 turn quarter – #1 amongst our industry peers– Sustained inventory performance
• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Improvement:– From 2% in Q1 2007 to 29.5% in Q4 2010
• Flexibility Improvement:
7
– from 37% in Q1 2007 to 58% in Q4 2010
Celestica received the Supply Chain Council’s 2011 Operations Excellence Award (Americas Region) for Project FireFox
Inventory optimization in a multi‐echelon supply chain
• Integral to the Project FireFox was to devise a method to determine the desired level of inventory yto deliver both customer service and operations efficiency
• No longer can we allow inventory levels be optimized locally by applying local inventory policies
8
without understanding the impact on the entire supply chain
5
Our approach• Adopted a holistic approach to determine the overall inventory level in the entire supply chain for each customer program
• An Inventory Profile Model and related management processes were developed / enhanced:– Map the supply chain network to understand dependencies– Identify constraints– Zero‐based thinking
• Apply optimal planning polices and parameters
9
• Apply optimal planning polices and parameters– S&OP process – managing profile gaps– Technology solutions to enhance supply chain visibility– Invest in people ‐ training
Traditional Inventory ManagementLocally Focused
Issues with traditional inventory management in a multi‐echelon network:– Inventory policies are determined independently at each node,
generating excess inventory, e.g. multiple buffers at different nodes
10
– Limited or no demand visibility upstream or downstream– Bullwhip effect amplifies the demand variability– Poor service due to sub‐optimization
6
Multi‐Echelon Inventory Management –Holistic approach to global inventory optimization
1 Global inventory target
Objective of Inventory Profile Modeling Technique
2 ‐Map SC Network‐ Understand dependenciesEliminate multiple independent forecasts
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Sub‐Asy Plants
Logistics & Transportation
Providers
Final Asy site
DistributionOutbound Hub
Customers End UsersTier 1
Tier 2Tier 3
1111
Supply Variability Demand Variability
‐ Eliminate multiple independent forecasts
3 Optimize Inventory investment
11
Inventory profiling basics
An inventory profile provides a picture of where inventory is tied up and how long inventory dwells(Days of Supply (DOS)) at different parts of the supply ( y pp y ( )) p pp ychain – from end‐to‐end
Visibility ‐Make inventory profiles and performance gaps visible
I t fil d t t t t d i i t
12
Inventory profiles and targets are stated in inventory days of supply (DOS) – NOT inventory dollars
7
How much inventory (in DOS) in the supply chain do we need to make a product and make the planned profit?
• If there are no constraints (in a perfect world)
Inventory profiling basics
If there are no constraints (in a perfect world)This is The Optimal Profile
• How much inventory is planned?This is The Plan Profile
• How much inventory (days of supply) do we have now?h h l f l
13
This is The Actual Profile• What are the gaps? And how do we close the gaps?
Sample actual supply chain‐ Inventory profileHigh level view
Whse Factory In‐transit FG FG
7D
40D6D
14D
SC1: Plant 1 – DC– Customer location 140+7+6+14 = 67d
SC2: Plant 1 – Plant 2 – DC(40+7+6)*0.25+36+5+3+14 = 71d
40D
Plant 1
5D
50D
5D
36D
Plant 2
3D6D
6D
FGDC/Hub Customers Location 1
14
( )SC3: Plant 2 – DC
50+5+6+14 = 75DSC4: Plant 3 – DC
42+3 = 45d
Plant 2
Plant 342D
3DCustomersLocation 2
8
• Take SC1 – the inventory profile shows there is inventory equivalent to 67 DOS tied up in the supply chain– Majority of the inventory is tied up as RM / WIP (47 days of supply)
Sample actual supply chain – Inventory profile
at the plant
• Is 67 DOS good or bad?
Whse – RM Factory In‐Transit Hub / DC Customer
15
Total 67 DOS of inventory
Whse – RM40 DOS
Factory7 DOS 6 DOS
Hub / DC14 DOS
Customer
Sample actual supply chain inventory profile ‐Plant level view
6 DOS
Total Whse Inv = 40 DOS
Whse – A items
Total WIP Inv = 7 DOS
10 DOS
16 DOS
7 DOS
Whse – B items
Whse – C items
Whse – non‐performing Quality Inspection1 DOS
Staging/queue1 DOS
Manufacturing1 DOS
Rework Inv2 DOS
Packaging FG waiting for
Shipping
16
1DOS
inv
Whse – inv awaiting QC/reciept
1 DOS 1 DOS shipping1 DOS
9
Sample actual supply chain inventory profile ‐In‐transit view
Total In‐Transit Inventory = 6 DOS
Weather / Other Delays1 DOS
Wait at Terminal1 DOS
Air Shipment1 DOS
Custom clearance1 DOS
Wait at Terminal1 DOS
LocalDelivery1 DOS
17
Inventory ProfilesOptimal, the Plan and the Actual
Whse – RM16 DOS
Factory4 DOS
In‐Transit4 DOS
Hub / DC10 DOS
Customer
Optimal profile = 34 DOS of inventory
Planned Profile = 46 DOS of inventory
Whse – RM24 DOS
Factory5 DOS
In‐Transit5 DOS
Hub / DC12 DOS
Customer
18
Actual Profile = 67 DOS of inventory
Whse – RM40 DOS
Factory7 DOS
In‐Transit6 DOS
Hub / DC14 DOS
Customer
10
Optimal profile
Optimal profile = 34 DOS of inventory
Whse – RM16 DOS
Factory4 DOS
In‐Transit4 DOS
Hub / DC10 DOS
Customer
Optimal inventory profileZero‐based planHow much inventory is required if program run in a ‘perfect world’, free of constraints
I l d ‘ ll bl ’ ‘ t bl ’ ti l
19
Includes ‘allowable’ or ‘acceptable’ non‐optimal elements, e.g. non‐performing inventory
Plan profile
Whse – RM24 DOS
Factory5 DOS
In‐Transit5 DOS
Hub / DC12 DOS
Customer
Plan profile the conditions under which the business planned to operate to achieve the profit objectives
Includes certain non‐optimal elements (i.e. hard constraints that are part of the system or part of the
Planned Profile = 46 DOS of inventory
20
constraints that are part of the system or part of the contract)Pricing ‐ should cover all costs for operating under the sub‐optimal conditions
11
Actual Profile
A l P fil 67 DOS f i
Whse – RM40 DOS
Factory7 DOS
In‐Transit6 DOS
Hub / DC14 DOS
Customer
The profile that is actually realized. Measure and manage the gaps to the Plan Profile
Locate the gaps are and have action plan to closeTh b t th Pl P fil d th A t l
Actual Profile = 67 DOS of inventory
21
The gaps between the Plan Profile and the Actual Profile are made up of “non‐optimal” elements or “wastes”
2360
70
80 Inventory Profiles67
Inventory ProfilesOptimal, the Plan and the Actual
34 34 34 30
14 14
23
10
20
30
40
50 46
34
30
22
0Actual Profile Plan Profile Optimal Profile Long term goal profile
Optimal Non-Optimal (Hard constraints) Non-optimal (Controllable)
12
Optimal Inventory Profile ElementsFactory Execution
Store to Manufacturing Manufacturing Operations
Kitting / staging Assembly
QC / Test / Inspection Pack and ShipQC / Test / Inspection Pack and Ship
SCM Execution
Planning parameters / Order Policy
Contractual buffers / safety stock
MPS/MRP compliance VMI penetration
Economic MOQ/Lot size Allowable non‐performing
23
inventoryCustomer Service
Planned / contractual inventory Safety stock based on planned forecast accuracy
Lean replenishment
How much raw material do we need in the warehouse?Order Policies (period coverage, n days demand)
A 7 DOS, B 14 DOS, C 28 DOS
Average Inv – A 3.5 DOS, B 7 DOS, C 14 DOS
Assuming ABC profile follows 80‐15‐5 rule Average inventoryAssuming ABC profile follows 80 15 5 rule
Total Average Inventory = weighted avg = 4.6 DOS
Reality is we have a lot more…
MOQ/Lot sizes
Critical parts shorts (load and chase)
I t it
Average inventory
= (Q / 2)
24
In‐transit
Non‐performing inventory
Buffers…..etc.
13
Inventory required in factory
1. Inventory is tied up in the factory as WIP inventory during the manufacturing lead time
2. Reality is WIP inventory DOS is much higher than manufacturing lead2. Reality is WIP inventory DOS is much higher than manufacturing lead time• Non‐conforming material (NCM)• Re‐work (e.g. customer returns)• Scrap / yield• Aged WIP (work orders not closed after 30 days since build start
date)• Excess sub‐assembly buffer
25
Excess sub assembly buffer– by contract– to facilitate final assembly schedule
Inventory required for customer service1. Finished goods inventory are kept to ensure short delivery
lead time, provide best‐in‐class customer service and deliver our OTD‐commit
2. Amount of FG holding depends on the trade terms, e.g. ExW, FOB
3. Reality is we normally have much more FG than required
• Forecast Accuracy, Transportation costs…etc
4 If the output of modules (e g PCA sub‐assemblies) from one
26
4. If the output of modules (e.g. PCA, sub‐assemblies) from one plant feeds into the FG Assembly operation at another plant
• we have a multi‐echelon supply chain
14
Demo – Putting it all together
1. Create an optimal profile – PCBA module CCustomer
2. Create a plan profile which include hard constraints
3. A sample actual profile showing the performance gaps
DemoMicrosoft Excel
Worksheet
27
Sample inventory profile report
Customers Inv $ DOS Inv $ DOS Inv $ DOS Inv $ DOS Inv $ DOS
A $96.0 46 $23.0 11 $3.0 1 $11.0 5 $133.0 63
B $15.0 15 $12.0 12 $1.0 1 $28.0 28
C $48.0 43 $15.0 13 $2.5 2 $65.5 58
Warehouse Inv Factory Inv In‐Plant FG Hub / DC Inv Total Inv
C $ $ $ $
D $13.0 31 $2.0 4 $1.0 2 $3.0 6 $19.0 43
E $24.0 39 $7.5 13 $0.7 1 $32.2 53
F $18.5 43 $1.5 3 $6.0 14 $26.0 60
G $34.7 47 $8.5 12 $2.1 3 $6.0 8 $51.3 70
H $58.0 81 $12.0 16 $12.0 16 $82.0 113
I $86.0 55 $14.0 9 $23.0 15 $2.4 2 $125.4 81
J $101.0 53 $34.0 18 $12.0 6 $32.0 17 $179.0 94
Total
28
Total Company
$494.2 44.2 $129.5 11.6 $63.3 5.7 $54.4 4.9 $741.4 66.3
Plan Profile
34 5 2 3 44
15
Non‐optimal Profile Elements Factory ExecutionCost of quality Re‐workProduct return Aged WIPScrap / Yield Excessive wait time
SCM ExecutionBOM errors MRP non‐complianceComponent shortages(Load and chase)
Supply market constraint
Unplanned schedule changes Outdated planning parametersExcessive MOQ vs. order policy Excessive non‐performing Inv
2929
Q p y p g
Customer ServiceExcessive transportation lot size Buffer inventory in excess of
contract / policyPoor forecast accuracy (customer not pulling as planned)
Excessive in‐transit wait time
Non‐optimal DOS ‐ some examples
• Poor forecast accuracy• In‐transit lot size too high (taking
advantage of FTL/FCL freight rate)• Excessive SSDC / HUB
• Transportation lead time (vs. costs) – trade offs• Unable to change to lean / VMI pull• Unfavourable trade terms• Excessive wait time
• BOM errors
• Quality issues (re‐works, scraps)• Unplanned schedule changes• Poor inventory accuracy that lengthens the
kitting/staging time
• Waiting for transportation
FACTORY
FG
IN‐TRANSIT
• Failure to comply with MRP action messages• Min. Order Qty too high (quantity discounts !)• Shortages / Supply constraints• Dock‐to‐stock process (2 hours or 7 days?)• Forecast accuracy• Planning parameters poorly maintainedWHSE
16
Inventory improvement opportunitiesWhere do we look?
1. Create inventory profiles where and how much inventory should be at each stage of the supply chain, in terms of DOS
– If there are no constraints (in a perfect world) – the– If there are no constraints (in a perfect world) – the optimum profile.
– This is the ultimate goal– The way it should be, i.e. the way you plan it – This is the
plan profile
2.Measure and report continuously the actual profile
31
2.Measure and report continuously the actual profile
3. The inventory DOS gaps between the actual profile and the plan profile identify improvement opportunities
Lessons Learned‐ Profits / cash flow vs. customer service
How much inventory do you need to deliver both profit and service?
MarketDemand
Logistics & Fi l A it
DistributionOutbound Hub
Customers End Tier 1 Logistics &Logistics & Fi l A itFi l A it
DistributionOutbound Hub
DistributionOutbound Hub
CustomersCustomers End End Tier 1
• The supply chain should be designed – To allow market demand pull inventory through the supply chain– To be agile and synchronized as demand changes
• Set holistic inventory profile target – Target is constant if stated in DOSI i h d d h i h h
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Sub-AsyPlants
Logistics & Transportation
Providers
Final Asy site Users
Tier 2Tier 3
Raw MaterialSuppliers
Sub-AsyPlants
Sub-AsyPlants
Logistics & Transportation
Providers
Logistics & Transportation
Providers
Final Asy siteFinal Asy site UsersUsers
Tier 2Tier 3
32
– Irrespective how demand changes in the short term– Inventory $ target level should be dynamically adjusted as demand
changes
Actively manage and adjust the inventory profile to synchronize supply and demand
17
Thank you
33