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TRANSCRIPT
INTRODUCTION TO TBESTAn FDOT Model for Short Range Transit Ridership Forecasting
Welcome
Thanks for taking the time to learn more about TBEST Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool
Target Audience – technical professionals and decision-makers involved in transit service planning or transit market analysis who want to learn more about state-of-the-art methodologies being used in Florida.
Welcome
Webinar objective –
Provide an overview of critical considerations and the state of the practice in modeling transit ridership for service planning
Provide an overview of the features, capabilities and data integrated into the TBEST model
Preview the direction of model development to respond to agency needs
Demonstrate the user convenience and visualization capabilities of using TBEST
Current TBEST Team
Steve Polzin, Xuehao Chu and Mark MistrettaCenter for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), Univ. of South Florida, Tampa
Software Development: Rodney BunnerCUTR and Independent Contractor, Tampa
TBEST Website Management: Martin CatalaCenter for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), Univ. of South Florida, Tampa
FDOT Project Manager: Daniel HarrisFlorida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee
Introduction
What is TBEST?Transit Demand Modeling/Analysis Software Developed by Florida Department of Transportation, Public Transit Office
Software Goal“Comprehensive Transit Network Modeling, Management and Analysis Software with a focus on short to mid-term transit planning”
Software Objectives Sensitive to service adjustments (operational, schedule, alignment,
system, and fare) User-friendly Cost-Effective Scalable (Indian River to LA Metro) Modest Data Requirements Standard modeling methodology to be used by any agency for Transit
Development Plan (TDP) ridership estimation
Motivation
FDOT/planners wanted a software tool for short-term transit service planning – designed specifically for transit.
Serve as FDOT provided ridership estimation technique for required Transit Development Plans
Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool (TBEST) has been in production for several years and is on its 4th Major Version (4.0).
FDOT is continually supporting the improvement of TBEST and the supporting databases.
Why TBEST?
Changes in transit service are ongoing 5 new properties have added fixed route transit since 2000
Florida transit ridership changes ranged from 200+% to a -20% in the ten years between 1996 and 2005.
Resource availability changes at local, state, and federal level
Florida population growth and travel pattern change is dramatic
Adjacent systems are integrating and merging
Staff changes are constant
The Planners are the Ultimate Experts But?
Relatively high staff turnover and young staff Dynamic situations that benefit from systematic
databases High demands for a standardized method to insure
consistency and equity Opportunities to leverage computing power and GIS
capabilities Capability to present the results in a public friendly
series of maps and tables
TBEST Characteristics
TBEST is designed to:
Capture access at the walk scale to/from transit
One-half of homes in the U.S. are within a half mile of transit -- one half aren’t
Capture accessibility via the transit network
Allow for special generators including park-n-ride
Respond to resident demographic characteristics
Respond to workplace employment type
TBEST Characteristics
TBEST is designed to: Incorporate the fact that 1/3 of transit boardings
are transfers (50% transfer rate) Accommodate service features of fare, speed,
frequency, etc. Accommodate fundamental differences in route
types (local, circulator, express) Automatically adapt to different urban locations
without developing new model equations (transferable)
Modeling and Prediction Framework
Stop-Level Analysis− Physical location− Route− Direction
Multiple Analysis Periods 4 weekday time periods Saturday Sunday
Relationships in a Transit Network− Neighboring stops− Accessible stops− Accessibility measures/transfer
potential
Separate Direct and Transfer Boardings
Direct Demand Model− Not mode choice model− Early work based on route-level analysis− Recent work based on segment/stop-level analysis − Considers inter-route relationships
TBEST Logic
TBEST is a transit trip generation model: It does not respond to gas prices or auto travel cost Beyond validation to local conditions it does not respond to
service quality changes (cleanliness, comfort, reliability, marketing, safety/security, presence of shelters, etc.)
Not interactive with auto travel – doesn’t respond to changes in competitive position of transit and auto.
What can TBEST be used for?
Strategic Planning (5 and 10 year forecasts for TDPs)
Service Planning (Fixed route bus based operations)
Analysis Tools (Corridor, Area, Sites)
Scalable to various property sizes
GIS Data Management
Future Evolution of TBEST
Ongoing (2011): Development of a capability to use parcel level data to assign address locations
to households. Enhanced treatment for special generators. Development of more refined trip attraction variables at the parcel level.
Future (2011+ ): Tech support and refinement based on user feedback. Calibration with BRT, LRT modes. Tool to allow for import of a Google Transit compliant network and the ability to
convert a network from Trapeze or HASTUS scheduling software. Module to calculate route level operating costs. Examine data sources that can be used to replace the current use of 2000 census
data for socio-demographics.
TBEST 4.0
TBEST 4.0 represents a technology shift to be compatible with latest advances from Microsoft and ESRI’s ArcGIS
Technology upgrade to Microsoft .NET Provides compatibility with Windows 7 Provides compatibility with ArcGIS 10 Users are no longer required to have a TBEST User account or have
any Admin privileges on their machine Integrated support for SQL Server Express 2005 and SQL Server
Enterprise 2005 (SQL Server 2008 will work, but you can’t share the system to TBEST users with SQL Server 2005
Updated TBEST UI a good combination of old and new to limit the learning curve
Many new features…and fixes
Parcel Model – Stop Market Evaluation
Airport Stop
Parcel Model – Stop Market Evaluation
Multi-Use Stop
Large Market Systems
Los Angeles Metro
Large Market Systems
TriMet – Portland, OR
Demonstration Topics
1. TBEST Tools and Features 2. TBEST Scenario Summary and Comparison Tool 3. TBEST GTFS (Google Transit) Route Import Tool
